Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, and the year-on-year core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[2][4] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year CPI remained stable at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%[2][4] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a moderate impact on inflation, with companies passing only 50-60% of tariff pressures onto consumers, preventing a significant rise in inflation[4][6] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise moderately due to weak consumer demand and a softening job market, maintaining the forecast for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[4][6] Market Reactions - As of the report's timing, the market anticipates a 96% probability of a rate cut in September, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations rising by 4 basis points to 61 basis points[2][4] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.3, while U.S. stocks opened higher following the inflation data release[2][4] Core Services and Goods Analysis - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was primarily driven by a rebound in core services, particularly volatile airline ticket prices, while core goods inflation remained moderate[2][6] - Core services excluding housing saw a month-on-month increase of 0.55%, driven by transportation and medical services, indicating a warming trend in service prices[6][10] Specific Item Trends - In July, the month-on-month growth of core goods was only 0.21%, with significant slowdowns in price increases for clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods, reflecting the limited transmission of tariff impacts[6][7] - Energy prices saw a notable decline, with the month-on-month energy component dropping from 0.95% in June to -1.07% in July, contributing to an overall CPI decrease of approximately 0.13 percentage points[6][7]

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for July increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below the anticipated 2.8%[1] - The market's confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with the probability of a rate cut rising to 96%[1] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a mild impact on inflation, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff costs to consumers due to weak demand perceptions[2] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise only moderately, constrained by weak corporate demand and a softening job market[2] - Core service inflation showed a rebound, particularly in volatile categories like airfare, while core goods inflation remained subdued, with some categories experiencing a slowdown in price growth[1][2] Specific Inflation Components - Core services increased by 0.36% month-on-month, driven by transportation and medical services, while core goods rose by only 0.21%[4] - Energy prices fell significantly, with the energy component decreasing by -1.07% month-on-month, contributing to a decline in overall CPI growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points[4] - Food prices also saw a notable slowdown, decreasing by 0.28 percentage points to a growth rate of 0.05%[4]

瑞银表示，关税影响似乎正在向美国CPI传导，但可能比预期的稍慢一些。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，与预期一致，前一月该数据为0.2%； 同比涨幅加速从2.9%至3.1%，高于市场预期的3%，上一次达到这一水平还是在2月份。 周二（8月12日）美股盘前，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月通胀年率与前月一致，未如预期那样 继续反弹。 具体数据显示，美国7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上升0.2%，与预期一致，较前一月放缓了0.1个百 分点；同比涨幅维持在2.7%，市场原先预期会上升至2.8%，结束近两个月的反弹势头。 ...

北京时间周二20:30，美国7月未季调核心CPI年率进一步走高至3.1%，为五个月高位，高于市场预期的3.0%。核心CPI月率进一步升至0.3%，为1月以来高 位，符合市场预期，高于前值的0.20%。 Anstey指出，视频和音频产品是另一个受到关税影响密切关注的类别。月度涨幅为0.8%，与家具价格一样，是5月份以来的最小涨幅。按年计算，增幅为 0.4%，听起来不多，但却是自2021年以来的最大增幅。 分析师Jersey对7月美国CPI报告的初步看法是，国债市场似乎担心CPI会走高，但整体CPI的月度数据表明，在9月会议之前收到的PCE数据可能足够接近2% 的目标，从而允许美联储在9月放松货币政策。Jersey说："我们仍然认为，市场有望进一步走高。" 持续更新中…… 美国短期利率期货下跌，交易员加大美联储9月降息的押注，继续押注美联储将12月降息。 分析师Anstey表示，6个月来首次出现月度核心CPI读数未能低于预期中值。问题是，这是否是一个拐点，未来几个月通胀将开始高于预期；7月核心CPI略高 于预期，美联储主席鲍威尔一直在说，政策制定者关注的是12个月的通胀。所以，这并不是一个好兆头。 整体CPI年率 ...

美股期货短线走高，截至目前，道琼斯指数期货涨0.43%，标普500指数期货涨0.43%，纳斯达克100指 数期货涨0.52%。消息面上，美国7月CPI同比增长2.7%，环比增长0.2%，交易员上调对美联储9月降息 的押注。 ...

美国劳工统计局今日公布数据显示，经季节性调整，7月份全美城市居民消费者价格指数（CPI-U）环 比上涨0.2%，此前6月环比上涨0.3%。未经过季调的数据显示，过去12个月CPI总指数上涨2.7%。 分项来看，7月居住类指数上涨0.2%，是带动本月CPI上涨的主要因素。食品类指数当月持平，其中外 出就餐价格上涨0.3%，而家庭食品价格下降0.1%。能源类指数则下跌1.1%，汽油价格环比下降2.2%。 剔除食品与能源后的核心CPI 7月环比上涨0.3%，高于6月的0.2%。涨幅较大的项目包括医疗保健、机 票、娱乐、家居用品与运营、二手车与卡车；而住宿类和通信类指数则出现下跌。 过去12个月，总体CPI上涨2.7%，核心CPI上涨3.1%；能源指数下降1.6%，食品指数上涨2.9%。 食品 7月食品类指数与上月持平，此前两个月均上涨0.3%。家庭食品价格下降0.1%，六大类中有两类上涨、 三类下降、一类持平。乳制品及相关产品上涨0.7%，其中牛奶上涨1.9%；肉类、禽类、鱼类和蛋类整 体上涨0.2%，其中牛肉上涨1.5%，鸡蛋下跌3.9%。 能源 7月能源类指数下降1.1%，此前6月上涨0.9%。汽油价格环比下降 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, indicating inflation trends [1] - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month, matching expectations and down from a previous value of 0.3% [1] - The core CPI year-over-year for July was reported at 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3% and higher than the previous value of 2.9% [1] - The month-over-month core CPI for July was 0.3%, in line with expectations and an increase from the previous value of 0.2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Stock Index Strategy - A-share broad-based indices had positive weekly gains, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 having the largest cumulative increase of 4.63% and the CSI 500 rising over 3%. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US June durable goods orders had a sharp decline. China's June industrial enterprise profits showed a narrowing decline, and the CSRC aimed to consolidate the market. Considering the market sentiment cooling and high technical indicators, the stock index's slow bull trend remains unchanged, but there may be a near-term correction, so a defensive wait-and-see approach is advisable [12]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - In the bond market, funds are flowing out, and with macro events concentrated at the end of July and early August, the bond market may experience an adjustment in a volatile pattern. Whether to participate on the left side or wait for the release of position pressure depends on the investor's position, duration, and tolerance. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [13]. 2.3 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, better than expected, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences, such as small enterprises' contraction intensifying and the high-tech manufacturing industry remaining flat. Only 7 out of 15 sub - industries had better sentiment than in May [20]. 2.4 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, and the PPI also decreased year - on - year. The current price situation shows "food differentiation and services stronger than goods," and the core inflation momentum is still insufficient. The decline in PPI is affected by international and domestic factors, but there are also positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 2.5 Industrial Enterprise Profitability - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin, with the profit margin having the most significant impact. Enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 2.6 Fiscal Situation - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, while the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 2.7 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persists, and export - related production is weak. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5% [44]. 2.8 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 2.9 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 2.10 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. Although the social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters, there is still pressure for it to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 2.11 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Due to the Sino - US trade relationship and the leading growth rate of processing trade, exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 2.12 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. However, there were internal structural differences. The service industry had employment growth, while the commodity production sector was weak. The wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns and giving the Fed more reason to stay on the sidelines [62][65]. 2.13 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable. The Fed maintained the interest rate target range and emphasized high uncertainty, so it tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 2.14 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly. The current US economy shows a "weak expansion + high inflation" characteristic, and the growth momentum may further weaken [71]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Adopt a defensive wait - and - see approach [11]. - **Trend Review**: A - share broad - based indices had positive weekly gains [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows a potential correction risk for the market index [12]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy - **Strategy Outlook**: Focus on taking profits [13]. - **Trend Review**: The bond market was volatile, and the treasury bond futures showed a downward trend [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may operate weakly in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose, with both supply and demand improving. However, there were structural differences among different enterprise sizes, industries, and sub - industries [20]. - The price and inventory situation also showed different characteristics at the industry level, with some industries replenishing inventory and others reducing inventory through price cuts [23]. - The non - manufacturing PMI rose, mainly due to the increase in the construction industry PMI, while the service industry PMI declined [26]. 3.2.2 Inflation - In May 2025, the CPI had a slight year - on - year decline, with food price differentiation and service prices being more resilient. The PPI decreased year - on - year, mainly affected by international and domestic factors, but there were positive changes in some areas [29][32]. 3.2.3 Profitability of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of profits declined, mainly due to the decline in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises may be adopting a strategy of reducing prices to clear inventory [35]. 3.2.4 Fiscal - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, and the expenditure increased. The tax revenue recovery margin slowed down, and the real - estate - related tax drag increased. The fiscal expenditure rhythm slowed down marginally, and the government fund revenue decline widened while the expenditure slowed down [38][41]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined, while the service industry added value increased. The production - sales imbalance persisted, and export - related production was weak [44]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to May, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate all decreased. Although the real - estate physical volume was not weak this month, the real - estate investment was still under pressure in terms of funds [47]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales increased, mainly driven by the early start of the 618 promotion and the strong performance of the May Day holiday in driving offline consumption [50]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In May, the new social financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main support. The social financing growth rate is expected to rise in the second and third quarters but may face pressure to rise and then fall in the second half of the year [53]. 3.2.9 Import and Export - In May, China's exports and imports continued to grow, with exports performing well. The central region led the national foreign trade growth. Exports are expected to maintain resilient growth in June [59]. 3.2.10 US Non - Farm Payrolls - In May 2025, the US labor market showed resilience, with more new jobs than expected. There were internal structural differences, and wage growth exceeded expectations, strengthening inflation concerns [62][65]. 3.2.11 US CPI - In May, the US CPI and core CPI increased year - on - year as expected. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable, and the Fed tended to stay on the sidelines [68]. 3.2.12 US PMI - In June, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was stable at 52, and the service industry PMI was slightly lower. The manufacturing growth was mainly driven by inventory, and the inflation pressure increased significantly [71]. 3.2.13 Weekly Focus - There are important economic indicators and events to be released in the coming week, including the US GDP, FOMC interest rate decision, and China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs [73].

Inflation Data Summary - In June 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.4%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and higher than the previous month's increase of 0.1%[1] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, in line with expectations and up from 2.8% previously[1] Economic Implications - The June inflation data provides some relief to the Federal Reserve, although tariff impacts are becoming more pronounced, particularly in clothing and furniture prices[4] - Core CPI has underperformed expectations for five consecutive months, primarily due to declining housing prices and weak automotive demand[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a rate cut in September, driven by the risk of economic stagnation outweighing inflation concerns[4] Sector-Specific Insights - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with energy CPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase of the year[5] - Core services, particularly housing, have weakened, counteracting gains in other service categories, while automotive prices remain depressed[8] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, with notable price rises in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and leisure products (0.8%)[9] Market Dynamics - High interest rates continue to suppress housing demand, while the automotive sector faces challenges from both weak demand and competitive pricing pressures from overseas[8] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming more evident, with over half of companies indicating a willingness to pass on 50%-75% of cost increases to consumers[26]