影响上，日内因观望情绪而先行震荡波动，到晚间时段，美国12月CPI意外降温，通胀数据不及预期， 交易员加码押注美联储4月降息，推动金价再创历史新高，但交易员获利了结导致黄金回吐日内全部涨 幅，不过，由于逢低买盘，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需求，有所止跌。 展望今日周三(1月14日)：国际黄金开盘，延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，先行走强，虽然美元指数近期偏强 表现，但也难以对金价产生持续压力，金价将继续受到降息周期，以及地缘局势避险需求而维持看涨前 景，操作保持低多不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4603.39美元/盎司，日内先行震荡盘整运行，延续到美盘时段，多头再度 发力，连续反弹走强，录得日内高点4634.43美元，但最终震荡回撤，并至盘尾触及日内低点4569.74美 元，最终有所止跌回升，收于4586.43美元，日振幅64.69美元，收跌16.96美元，跌幅0.37%。 上交易日周二(1月13日)：国际黄金微幅刷新高点后，多头动力减弱，震荡收跌，但仍运行在短期均线 上方，技术看涨前景良好，基本面也无较大且持续的看空预期，故此，操作上，依然保持低多看涨不 变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in gold and silver markets, highlighting the fluctuations in prices and the broader economic context influencing these trends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.44% to $4594.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [1]. - The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI also increasing by 2.6%, both figures remaining consistent with previous values [1]. - The prolonged "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government has diminished the predictive value of this data for the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The trend of increasing official gold reserves, high public debt leading to sovereign currency crises, and broad industrial applications continue to provide medium to long-term support for precious metals [3]. - Short-term factors include questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the imminent announcement of its next chairperson, alongside rising global geopolitical risks [3]. - Overall, in a highly uncertain economic and financial environment, gold is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [3].

12月居住指数上涨0.4%，是当月整体涨幅的最大贡献项。食品指数上涨0.7%，家庭食品指数和外出就 餐指数同样上涨0.7%。能源指数12月上涨0.3%。 剔除食品与能源后，全项目指数12月上涨0.2%。当月上涨的类别包括娱乐、机票、医疗、服装、个人 护理和教育。通信、二手车与卡车及家居用品与运营指数则在12月下降。 截至12月，全项目指数12个月涨幅为2.7%，与截至11月的涨幅一致。剔除食品和能源的全项目指数过 去12个月上涨2.6%。能源指数过去12个月上涨2.3%。食品指数过去一年上涨3.1%。 食品 食品指数12月上涨0.7%，家庭食品指数同样上涨0.7%。杂货店六大类目中有五项上涨。其中"其他家庭 食品"指数当月上涨1.6%。谷物和烘焙产品指数上涨0.6%。水果和蔬菜指数上涨0.5%，无酒精饮料指数 上涨0.4%。乳制品及相关产品指数12月上涨0.9%。相比之下，肉类、禽类、鱼类和蛋类指数下降 0.2%，其中鸡蛋指数下跌8.2%。 外出就餐指数12月同样上涨0.7%。全服务餐饮指数当月上涨0.8%，快餐与简餐指数上涨0.6%。 截至12月，家庭食品指数过去12个月上涨2.4%。肉类、禽类、鱼类和蛋类 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with expectations, while the year-on-year core CPI was 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [1] - The December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was lower than the expected increase of 0.3% [1]

今日周二，黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回撤动力，早盘有所走弱，加上美元指数延续昨日的触底回升，早盘 有所偏强，也限制了金价多头。但金价也仍具进一步上涨动力。 同时，日内还将受到美国12月未季调核心CPI年率的预期走高，而多头反弹受限，不过CPI的升高也会 带动金价的商品属性，使其反弹，故此，如晚间公布的CPI整体下降，将会提升降息前景，金价直接再 度走强，如果高于前值或者是预期，金价则是先跌后涨，整体上，无论什么结果，操作都是逢低做多为 主。 基本面上，上周失业率有所下降，巩固了市场对美联储本月将维持利率不变的预期。但也并没有打消降 息前景，最新公布的美国就业数据虽新增岗位不及预期及前值，市场也仍预计今年晚些时候将有约两次 降息。故此，金价仍处于看涨周期中。 另外，当下地缘局势风险仍在持续，央行买盘也仍在继续，市场目前预计美联储今年将降息两次或更 多，再加上财政债务上升， 本周又从鲍威尔刑事调查到地缘政治紧张，再到美联储政策与通胀预期，这些因素共同构筑了坚实的上 涨基础。短期内难以逆转。所以，展望未来，随着美联储决策依赖数据和全球风险的演化，黄金仍有上 行空间，上半年我们仍持看涨观点不变，且仍有望推动金价上探5000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The December CPI data in the U.S. is expected to show a significant rebound due to statistical distortions from the government shutdown, rather than genuine inflationary pressures [1][4]. Group 1: CPI Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts a notable increase in the core CPI for December, with a month-on-month growth of 0.36%, significantly higher than the average of 0.08% in October and November [1][3]. - The likelihood of the core CPI rounding to 0.3% or 0.4% is considered equal, but the risk of reaching 0.5% is higher than 0.2% [3][8]. - The December data will provide clearer insights into the transmission of tariffs to consumer prices, which had been absent in the October and November data [3][10]. Group 2: Statistical Distortions - Two main statistical biases due to the government shutdown are expected to affect the December CPI data: - The dual-month sampling bias, which has led to an underestimation of inflation in October, is projected to contribute approximately 8 basis points to the December core CPI [4]. - The holiday discount bias, resulting from delayed price collection in November, is expected to add an additional 3 basis points to the core CPI prediction [4]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Core goods inflation is anticipated to reach a new high for the year, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.59% in December, driven by rising prices in new and used cars, clothing, and other core goods [5]. - Rent inflation is expected to normalize, with the owner's equivalent rent (OER) projected to grow by 0.27% month-on-month in December [5]. - Overall CPI is expected to rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [5]. Group 4: Key Focus Areas - The uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the rebound is acknowledged, with the potential for actual data to exceed the forecasted growth [8]. - The sustainability of the slowdown in housing inflation will be assessed with December serving as a clean observation point following significant declines in September [9]. - The timing of tariff transmission effects is crucial, as December data will be a key verification window for the impact of tariffs on core inflation, which is expected to contribute an additional 45 basis points [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Strong data may be dismissed by the market as statistical noise, while weak data could signal a significant cooling of inflation [11]. - The asymmetry in market reactions suggests that if December CPI falls below expectations, it could significantly boost interest rate-sensitive assets, whereas data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations may not provoke strong market responses [11][14].

Core Insights - The November inflation data in the U.S. showed a significant drop in both CPI and core CPI, with year-on-year rates falling to 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, which were below market expectations of around 3% [3][8] - Despite concerns about data quality due to government shutdowns affecting data collection, the report provided a glimmer of hope for the market, alleviating short-term inflation worries [7][3] - The Federal Reserve may reconsider its interest rate decisions if the December data continues to show low inflation, potentially leading to more rate cuts than previously indicated [7][10] Inflation Data Summary - The CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, down from 3.0% in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8] - Core CPI decreased to 2.6%, down from 3.0% in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [8] - Food inflation remained high at 2.6% year-on-year, while energy inflation increased to 4.2% [8] - Core inflation showed weakness, particularly in housing and services, with housing inflation dropping from 3.6% to 3.0% [10][8] Market Reaction - Following the inflation report, the market reacted positively, with the dollar weakening and both stocks and bonds rising, particularly the Nasdaq which gained over 1% [3] - The report's findings may influence the Federal Reserve's stance, as lower inflation could lead to a more dovish approach in future monetary policy [7][3]

CA Markets据悉，昨天公布的美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据，11月份整体通胀率从3.0%降至2.7%，而市场普遍预期会升至3.1%。核心CPI也大幅下降， 从3.0%降至2.6%，而预期是会维持在3.0%左右。这真是个巨大的惊喜——或许好得有点不真实。 事实上，幕后的情况比漂亮的表面数据所显示的要复杂得多。由于几个组成部分缺少10月份的定价数据，安永帕特农（EY-Parthenon）将这份CPI报告称 为"瑞士奶酪"报告——漏洞百出。 关键在于，缺失的数据中包括通胀最重要的驱动因素之一：住房成本，它约占美国CPI篮子的三分之一。毫不意外，如果剔除住房通胀，生活成本看起来会 突然便宜很多。 另一个关键细节是：缺失的数据被视为价格没有增长：这是一种令人难以置信的统计操作失误。 再加上周四的就业报告——该报告显示劳动力市场有所放缓但并未崩溃——CPI数据未能为通胀前景提供明确的指导。总而言之：我们对美联储下一步应该 怎么做仍然一无所知。 一些人认为，住房通胀确实呈下降趋势，并在未来几个月会产生通缩压力——但可能不会像市场希望的那么快。能源成本也很重要。虽然美国汽油价格同比 仅小幅上涨，但燃油价格飙升11. ...

Inflation Data - The overall CPI inflation rate in the U.S. decreased from 3.0% in September to 2.7% in November, significantly below the market expectation of 3.1%[1] - The core CPI inflation rate also fell by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.0%, marking the lowest level since April 2021[1] Core Services and Housing Impact - The decline in core services CPI, particularly housing prices, was the main driver behind the unexpected drop in core CPI, with core services CPI inflation decreasing from 3.5% in September to 3.0% in November[2] - Housing CPI inflation fell from 3.6% to 3.0%, with owner-equivalent rent CPI decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 3.4% and lodging away from home CPI plummeting by 4 percentage points to -4.1%[2] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to government layoffs[3] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, exceeding the expected 4.5%[3] Future Economic Outlook - The report suggests that tariffs will continue to be a key factor influencing core inflation rates, with potential short-term rebounds in core inflation expected[4] - The expectation is that core inflation rates will begin to decline in the second half of next year, assuming no new tariffs are implemented[5] Federal Reserve Policy Predictions - The forecast maintains the possibility of two 25 basis point rate cuts next year, driven by slowing economic momentum and a weakening labor market[5] - The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until early next year to assess the impact of upcoming employment and inflation data[5]

Core Viewpoint - The November CPI data is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts in January, but it may increase dovish sentiments within the Fed [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - If December data continues the current trend of slow inflation, it may prompt the Fed to reassess its interest rate cut path for next year [1] - The combination of economic slowdown and low inflation could lead the Fed to consider more rate cuts than indicated in the December dot plot, which suggests only one cut in 2026 [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The final decision on interest rate cuts will depend on the release of cleaner inflation data in December [1]