Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has revised its economic forecasts, now expecting US GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, a downward adjustment of 0.2% from previous estimates [1] - The forecast for PCE inflation has been increased to 2.7%, up by 0.2% from earlier predictions [1] - Core PCE inflation expectations have also been raised to 3.1%, reflecting an increase of 0.3% from prior forecasts [1] Economic Indicators - US GDP growth forecast for 2025: 1.3% [1] - PCE inflation forecast: 2.7% [1] - Core PCE inflation forecast: 3.1% [1]

Core Insights - Most economists expect a significant jump in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs may contribute approximately 0.08 percentage points to the core CPI reading for June [1] - Specific categories potentially affected by tariffs include furniture, entertainment products, education-related items, communication devices, and personal care products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariffs on the transmission to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains uncertain [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the unpredictability of how tariffs affect inflation metrics such as the CPI [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of geopolitical conflicts on investment opportunities, particularly focusing on the energy sector, financial markets, and the innovative pharmaceutical industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Conflict Impact**: If the Israel-Palestine conflict does not escalate, gold and oil prices are expected to rise by approximately 5% over the next two weeks. Conversely, U.S. stocks may decline by 1-3%, while A-shares could drop around 5% [1][3][13]. 2. **Market Pressures**: The current market faces multiple pressures, including a slowdown in policy trading, increased geopolitical risks, and high levels of small-cap stock crowding. This suggests a need for investors to avoid short-term volatility and shift towards large-cap stocks [1][4][5]. 3. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas to watch include: - Energy chain (oil and gas, shipping, and services), particularly low-valuation shipping stocks. - Large financial institutions, including regional banks and undervalued insurance companies in Hong Kong. - The public transportation sector benefiting from the summer peak season and reduced working hours [1][6]. 4. **Innovative Pharmaceutical Sector**: The innovative pharmaceutical market is currently at its highest crowding level in three years, yet there remains potential for growth. Focus should be on the ChiNext and STAR Market for innovative drugs [1][7][11][12]. 5. **U.S. CPI and Interest Rate Outlook**: The U.S. CPI is on a downward trend, reducing pressure for interest rate cuts. The upcoming FOMC meeting may signal future rate cuts, with expectations of a stable U.S. Treasury yield [1][8]. 6. **ETF Fund Flow and Small-Cap Stock Crowding**: As the Shanghai Composite Index approaches 3,400 points, ETF turnover rates are declining, indicating potential outflows. High levels of small-cap stock crowding suggest an impending correction in the A-share market [1][9]. 7. **Market Style Shift**: Since July 2024, small-cap stocks have seen significant gains, but as crowding levels peak, a shift towards large-cap stocks is anticipated, which could help avoid short-term adjustments and yield excess returns [2][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Innovative Drug Crowding**: The current crowding level in the innovative drug sector is 1.6 times, surpassing previous peaks in 2022. However, compared to the 2021 highs, there is still considerable room for growth [11][12]. 2. **Geopolitical Conflict Scenarios**: The impact of geopolitical conflicts varies; larger events like 9/11 or the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to significant market declines, while regional conflicts may have a more muted effect [3][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May fell slightly below expectations, with year-on-year CPI rising from 2.3% to 2.4%, while core CPI remained steady at 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous value of 0.2%, and core CPI also rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2% [1] - Factors contributing to the CPI's lower-than-expected performance include a decline in energy prices, a continued drop in automobile prices, and a slowdown in rent and super core services price increases [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, and the probability of a first cut in September rising from 50.9% to 61.3% [2] - The effective tariff rate in the US has decreased to 7.07%, significantly lower than the estimated 13-20% by overseas institutions, potentially due to tax avoidance measures [3] - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the first sale price, which may mitigate the impact of increased tariffs [3] Group 3 - Concerns about inflation due to tariffs remain, with the potential for upward inflation risks unless tariffs are continuously suspended or canceled [5] - Consumer inflation expectations in the US have surged, with one-year and five-year expectations at near 45-year and 25-year highs, respectively [5] - Despite a significant number of brands and retail executives anticipating negative consumer reactions to price increases, a majority still plan to raise prices [6]

订阅美国CPI +订阅 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 摩根大通：对伊朗发动袭击可能会使油价飙升至120美元/桶，并推动美国CPI升至5%。 ...

年率、月率双双低于预期，通胀压力有，但不多……5月CPI能为美联储卸下思想包袱吗？一图读懂美 国2025年5月CPI报告 相关链接 财料 ...

特朗普快速反应小组评美国CPI：5月通胀数据比预期的都低。自从特朗普总统上任以来，通胀率每个 月都低于经济学家的预期。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May increased by 2.4% year-over-year, meeting expectations, with the previous value at 2.3% [1] - The core CPI for May rose by 2.8% year-over-year, which is below the expected value of 2.9%, and the previous value was also 2.8% [1] - The core CPI has now shown a lower-than-expected increase for four consecutive months, indicating that companies are attempting to limit the transfer of rising costs from tariffs to consumers [1]

机构分析师Curran评美国CPI：核心通胀率低于预期尤其值得注意。 ...