Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is downward. The current domestic supply is sufficient, and factors such as Argentina's zero - tariff export policy and the U.S. soybean harvest are negative for prices. However, the continuous downward space is limited due to Sino - U.S. trade tariff issues [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal is also expected to decline in the short term. Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade needs to be monitored [1][5]. - Palm oil is expected to continue its short - term adjustment. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance [1][7]. - Soybean oil will continue to adjust in the short term. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the approaching U.S. soybean harvest may put pressure on it. It has recently followed the adjustment of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil will maintain a high - level shock. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic de - stocking cycle support its price, but the development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - Cotton is recommended to be short - allocated in the short term. The increasing supply from the U.S. and other Northern Hemisphere countries, weak export demand, and the start of domestic new cotton harvesting with no obvious price - support behavior contribute to the bearish outlook [1][11]. - For jujubes, it is advisable to be cautious and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Although the market's concerns about quality are gradually alleviated, there is still pressure after the new fruit is launched, and there may be large price fluctuations before November [1][15]. - For live pigs, the short - term 11 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy should be maintained. The spot market is under pressure from both supply and feed price adjustments [1][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.983 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 tons; the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, a decrease of 385,400 tons or 5.26% from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week [3]. - The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,930 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,988 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan or 0.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - The futures price of the main contract was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 2.13% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,533.68 yuan/ton, down 56.85 yuan or 2.19% [4]. Palm Oil - As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 585,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,400 tons or 8.79% [7]. - The futures price of the main contract was 9,126 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan or 0.80% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,065 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 1.23% [6]. Cotton - The U.S. cotton area's boll - opening rate reached 60%, and the harvest progress was 12%. The good - to - excellent rate decreased by 5% to 47% week - on - week, but was 10% higher than the same period [9]. - The domestic new cotton harvest progress reached 0.8%. The opening price of new cotton showed no obvious price - support behavior. The import volume of cotton resources in August was about 193,410 tons [10]. - The futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15,091 yuan/ton, down 69.5 yuan or 0.46% [8]. Jujubes - The main jujube - producing areas have entered the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season jujube output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared to previous years [14]. - The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10,785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [12]. Live Pigs - The main contract Lh2511 was stable at 12,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 12,860 yuan/ton, down 0.16% [17]. - In September, the planned slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month. The long - term supply pressure may gradually ease as the inventory of fertile sows decreases [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline in soybean meal**: Domestic short - term supply is sufficient, and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on soybean meal. However, due to Sino - US trade issues, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. There is a possibility of a retracement to 2930 yuan for support confirmation. Be cautious about bullish operations before the holiday [1][4]. - **Short - term decline in rapeseed meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in palm oil**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are positive for consumption expectations, but frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may limit its performance before the double holidays. Be cautious about bullish operations [1][8]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in soybean oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and the approaching US soybean harvest may pressure soybean oil, while domestic double - festival stocking demand is positive, but there is a lack of its own upward - driving force. Pay attention to the boost from the palm oil end [1]. - **Oscillating and bullish in rapeseed oil**: Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand support high - level and strong oscillations, but the resumption of Sino - Australian trade restricts continuous upward movement. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian negotiations and US biodiesel policies [1]. - **Cautiously bearish on cotton**: US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries' increasing supply pressures the market, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting has started with no obvious price - holding behavior. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][12]. - **Cautiously bearish on red dates**: Although there is an expected reduction in new - season production, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap after considering inventory. The weather speculation window is shrinking, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][14]. - **Cautiously bearish on live pigs**: The spot market is under continuous pressure from supply, and the bearish sentiment in the futures market is rising. In the short and medium term, supply pressure is obvious. Consider short - selling the November contract on rebounds and maintaining the reverse - spread strategy [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, down 70.3 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons week - on - week; and bean粕 inventory was 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [2]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average soybean crushing profit was - 150.7804 yuan/ton, up 14.45 yuan; the basis of bean粕01 was - 84 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.79 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [5]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 172.3755 yuan/ton, up 18.69 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal01 was 42 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the national key area commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons week - on - week; the weekly commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons [7][8]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of bullish views was 29%, down 6 percentage points; the proportion of bearish views was 47%, up 29 percentage points [7]. Cotton - **Inventory**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - **Prices**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13610 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the domestic spot price was 15242 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9][10]. - **Operation and Profit**: The mainstream area spinning mills' operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage point; the weaving mills' operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the spinning mills' cotton profit was - 994.30 yuan/ton, up 112.20 yuan [9]. Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Prices**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10735 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day; the spot price of Kashgar general - grade dates remained unchanged at 6 yuan/kg [13]. - **Market Situation**: The yield is expected to decrease, but there may not be a significant supply - demand gap after considering inventory [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig存栏 was 3782.4 million heads, up 0.51%; the planned September slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month [15][16]. - **Prices**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the latest spot price was 12930 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [15][16]. - **Operation and Profit**: The key slaughter enterprises' daily operating rate was 32.95%, up 0.21 percentage points; the slaughter profit was - 18.2 yuan/head, up 0.70 yuan [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report predicts a short - term rebound for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, although the short - term supply in China is sufficient and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on prices, the Sino - US trade issue limits the continuous decline space. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows soybean meal, with trade policies and high inventory leading to a mixed situation of long and short factors [1][4]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to have short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a positive consumption outlook due to Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies and the procurement demand from China and India in September, but the frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and the many short - term factors in the US soybean oil market may suppress its performance this month. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy changes and the approaching US soybean harvest, while the domestic double - festival stocking demand provides some support [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate bullishly. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the double - festival demand support its high - level and strong - oscillating price, but the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, red dates, and live pigs are rated as cautiously bearish. For cotton, the increasing supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the poor export demand of US cotton, and the high level of unpriced buy orders suppress the price, with a possible short - term rebound due to potential new - cotton rush - buying. Red dates may face pressure after the new fruit is launched, with possible large price fluctuations before November. Live pigs' spot prices are under pressure from high - volume supply, and the market lacks clear positive factors in capacity regulation [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3031.71 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 165.2295 yuan/ton, up 20.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.686 million tons, up 25,000 tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.332 million tons, up 15,000 tons (0.21%) from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 28,200 tons (2.48%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 191.067 yuan/ton, up 67.23 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 74,000 tons, down 27,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, down 500 tons from last week [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The national average price was 9345 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory and Export Data**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 641,500 tons, up 22,200 tons (3.58%) from last week. The export data of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 showed different trends in different reports [7][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.33% to 13720 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price dropped by 0.24% to 15293 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract fell by 0.90% to 66.30 cents/pound [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the international market, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest and supply period. In the domestic market, new cotton is about to be launched, the demand is weak, and the export of textile and clothing in August decreased year - on - year [10][11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price Information**: The red date main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.47% to 10670 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The estimated new - season production is 560,000 - 620,000 tons. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week was 9247 tons, down 74 tons from last week [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The live pig main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.47% to 12825 yuan/ton, and the latest spot price increased slightly by 0.23% to 12940 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned出栏量 in September is expected to increase. In the medium - term, the出栏量 is expected to grow until the first quarter of 2026. The demand is expected to gradually show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term trend is downward. Soybean meal is under short - term bearish pressure, but the continuous decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues. Rapeseed meal is affected by trade policies and high inventory, with its trend mainly following soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a bullish fundamental outlook but is affected by the variable US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy and the approaching soybean harvest, with sufficient domestic supply [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillating trend, supported by the Sino - Canadian trade dispute and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply side is pressured by the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the domestic market is in a tight pattern before new cotton is listed, and the USDA's downward adjustment of China's new - year stock - to - use ratio is bullish [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. Considering the current production forecast and carry - over inventory, there is pressure when new jujubes are listed. There may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: For live hogs, the short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Varieties Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.82 million tons. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan from the previous day [2][3]. - **Analysis**: The USDA's September supply - demand report showed an increase in US soybean production and ending stocks, which was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bearish, but the decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is low due to low imports, but the demand is weak. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still has a long way to go, and the bullish impact is limited. The trend follows soybean meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22 million tons. Malaysia's August palm oil ending inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Analysis**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the palm oil market, but the variable US biodiesel policy may suppress its performance. There are short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [1]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: As of the reporting period, the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 66.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.6% to 38% [10][12]. - **Analysis**: The supply side of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is under pressure, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The domestic market is tight before new cotton is listed, and there is support at the bottom of the short - term disk [1]. Jujube - **Market Conditions**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.514% to 10815 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week [14][16]. - **Analysis**: The weather - related speculation window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually easing. After new jujubes are listed, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. There are opportunities to sell short on rebounds [1]. Live Hogs - **Market Conditions**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 1.59% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the domestic live hog spot price increased by 0.23% to 13320 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live hog inventory increased by 0.51% to 3782.4 million, and the出栏量 increased by 2.39% to 1117.72 million heads [17][18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time, with strategies such as selling short on rebounds or 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and looking for long - buying opportunities for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term consolidation. The soybean planting weather in the US is generally smooth, South America has a bumper harvest, and domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation stage. The market is cautious about short - selling before the US bio - diesel policy is finalized [1]. - **菜粕**: Short - term oscillation. The decline in rapeseed imports from July to September, along with the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term bullish bias. The inventory accumulation cycle of palm oil in Southeast Asia has begun, but there are bullish factors such as the low - price procurement demand from China and India, the US bio - diesel policy, and Malaysia's B20 policy. The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - **棉花**: Rebound under pressure. The sowing of US cotton is basically completed, and the export has increased significantly. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The downstream orders have weakened after a short - term rebound [1]. - **红枣**: Wide - range oscillation. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. However, the old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is weak in the short term [1]. - **生猪**: Weak oscillation. The出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of secondary fattening have temporarily alleviated the supply pressure, but the pig production capacity has not been cleared, and the short - term price is supported but under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2954 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2888.86 yuan/ton, down 8.28 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 788000 tons, a decrease of 20800 tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 636400 tons, a decrease of 29470 tons or 4.43% from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory was 82240 tons, an increase of 13080 tons or 18.91% from the previous week [3]. 菜粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2611 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2594.21 yuan/ton, up 28.42 yuan or 1.11% [4]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 16200 tons, a decrease of 2600 tons from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory was 460 tons, a decrease of 640 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contract was 4900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous week [7]. 棕榈油 - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 53510 tons, a decrease of 230 tons or 0.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 6200 tons or 13.1% from the same period last year [8]. - **Market Situation**: The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may lead to a shift in palm oil export shares from Indonesia to Malaysia. The unexpected inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in June has a negative impact on market sentiment [8]. 棉花 - **Price Information**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton increased by 0.69% to 13865 yuan/ton, ICE cotton decreased by 0.03% to 67.76 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price increased by 0.08% to 15201 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The US cotton planting area in 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The latest excellent - good rate is 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The latest weekly export of US cotton has increased significantly. India's cotton sown area has increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress is 24%, an increase of 2% year - on - year. Brazil's new - cotton harvest is accelerating, and the output is expected to increase by 5.7% year - on - year to 3.913 million tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the full - bloom stage. The actual sown area of cotton in the country in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton has decreased by 132300 tons to 3.5976 million tons. The import of cotton resources in May is at a 10 - year low [11]. 红枣 - **Price Information**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube increased by 2.12% to 10580 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The southern Xinjiang production area is in the fruit - setting period. The high - temperature situation in July has been alleviated. The three - party research in the production area shows that the fruit - setting situation is good, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction [14]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from the previous week, and higher than the same period by 4619 tons. The demand is still in the off - season, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average [14]. 生猪 - **Price Information**: The main contract Lh2509 of live pigs increased by 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.27% to 15000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory is 37199300 tons, an increase of 11520 tons or 0.31% from the previous month; the live - pig slaughter volume is 11.2559 million heads, an increase of 167700 heads or 1.51% from the previous month. The national inventory of fertile sows is 40.42 million heads, an increase of 40000 heads or 0.1% from the previous month [15]. - **Demand**: The fat - lean price difference has widened, stimulating secondary fattening. The downstream slaughter volume and开机 rate are still at a low level, and the market demand for pork is showing a marginal decline [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides short - term outlooks for various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, analyzing their market trends based on factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation. Consider factors like US biodiesel policy and inventory levels [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. Pay attention to US biodiesel hearings and Sino - Canadian relations [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. - **Cotton**: Rebound is under pressure. Watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. - **Jujube**: Wide - range oscillation. Be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation. Focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.41% to 2947 yuan/ton; national average spot price increased 0.10% to 2897.14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, South American harvest is certain. Domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' restocking enthusiasm may slow down [1]. - **Outlook**: Short - term consolidation, watch for the outcome of biodiesel policy [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 2586 yuan/ton; national average spot price remained unchanged at 2565.79 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and reduced imports support prices, but low spot price difference with soybean meal affects consumption [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term adjustment, pay attention to US biodiesel hearings [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 8678 yuan/ton; national average price increased 0.94% to 8830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Southeast Asian inventory - building cycle has started, but there are positive factors such as Chinese and Indian low - price purchases and US biodiesel policies. US tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. Cotton - **Market Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 rose 0.33% to 13830 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.09% to 15189 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Internationally, US cotton planting is mostly completed, with high planting area and good quality. India's planting area is increasing, and Brazil's output is expected to rise. Domestically, new cotton growth is good, inventory is decreasing, and imports are shrinking. However, downstream orders are weakening [12][13][14]. - **Outlook**: Rebound is under pressure, watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. Jujube - **Market Data**: Main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.10% to 10425 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, current inventory is high, and demand is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: Wide - range oscillation, be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: Main contract Lh2509 decreased 0.04% to 14265 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.40% to 15000 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is still in an increasing cycle, demand is marginally weakening [18]. - **Outlook**: Weak oscillation, focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for the US biodiesel hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Last week, rapeseed and palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of soybean oil moved down again. The passing of the 43Z Act has realized short - term benefits, and the US biodiesel policy hearing will be held on the 8th - 9th. The US has launched a new round of tariff wars globally, increasing macro - risks. In the producing areas, institutions expect a 1 - 5% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in June, a 4 - 12% increase in exports, and a slight 0.24% decrease in end - of - month inventory. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. In the US, the soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. In China, the spot trading of soybean oil is average, and there is restocking of palm oil. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with 4 new palm oil purchase contracts added in July in late June. The inventories of soybean and palm oil have increased to 960,000 tons and 540,000 tons respectively. The rebound space of CBOT soybeans is limited. In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 61% to nearly 1 million tons. Institutions expect an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, a reverse - seasonal decline in production, and a halt in inventory growth in June. Coupled with the short - term benefits of US biodiesel, BMD crude palm oil has reached the 4000 mark again. The export of Canadian rapeseed is strong, with annual exports exceeding 9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 50%. The supply of old - crop rapeseed remains tight, and the producing areas of rapeseed continue to be strong [7]. - In operation, the short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been digested. The market is waiting for the hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Coupled with the resurgence of global tariff disputes, the upward trend of rapeseed and palm oil has slowed down. For long - term unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. The spread between September rapeseed and palm oil is in the range of 1100 - 1200, and the strategy of expanding the spread should be held cautiously [8] Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for relevant events. The market situation of various oils at home and abroad is analyzed, including production, inventory, and trading volume. Strategies are proposed based on the above analysis [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, domestic and foreign palm oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil all stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of Dalian soybean oil moved down [10]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **External Factors**: The 45Z tax credit act has been passed, realizing short - term benefits for US biodiesel, and the market is waiting for the hearing on the 8th - 9th. The US has restarted a tariff war globally [13]. - **US Soybeans**: The area affected by drought in US soybeans has further shrunk, and the good - to - excellent rate remains at 66%. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. Last week, the premium of Brazilian soybeans reached a maximum of 140 cents per bushel [13]. - **Palm Oil**: Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil production in June decreased by 1 - 5%, exports increased by 4 - 12%, and end - of - month inventory decreased slightly by 0.24%. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. Institutions estimate that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, a nearly 11 - month high [13]. - **Import and Crushing**: In late June, 4 new palm oil purchase contracts for July were added. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with an increase in arrivals. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate. The rapeseed crushing rate has continued to decline to a low of 40,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has stopped decreasing [13]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the soybean oil inventory has accumulated for 9 consecutive weeks to 960,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory has dropped below 800,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 100,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory has increased significantly to 540,000 tons, completely out of the low - inventory range. The accumulation of soybean and palm oil inventories has led to an increase in the total inventory of the three major oils to 2.18 million tons, compared with 1.77 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - **Spot**: Last week, the spot prices of oils fluctuated as a whole. As of July 4th, the price of soybean oil was 8135 yuan per ton, a 1.15% decrease from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8635 yuan per ton, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9783 yuan per ton, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [13]. - **Demand**: Last week, the overall spot trading volume of oils decreased. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 32,200 tons, compared with 77,700 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2432 tons, compared with 7766 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 4000 tons in the previous week [13]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of strong crude oil and favorable US biodiesel policies, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [6]. - The rainfall in the Midwest soybean - growing areas in the next half - month is not conducive to soybean growth; in June, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly while exports increased significantly, which is positive for palm oil; the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historically high level, and the future import volume may gradually decrease, and the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be monitored. The proposed increase in the US biodiesel blending volume in 2026 is positive for US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil may follow the upward trend, but there may be uncertainties [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 09 be around 7,800. For options, it is advisable to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's policy on importing Canadian rapeseed, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Periodic and Spot Markets - Last week, oils and fats were oscillating and bullish, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices and favorable US biodiesel policies [18]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil is fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 1.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. The report was generally bearish [34]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of June 13, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contracts were 81,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41% [65]. 4. Demand Side - The document provides charts of the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the three major oils and fats over the years, but no specific analysis is given [56][60][62]. 5. Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41%. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 6. Disk Import Profit - As of June 20, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the July shipment was - 194 yuan/ton [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]