Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for the US biodiesel hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Last week, rapeseed and palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of soybean oil moved down again. The passing of the 43Z Act has realized short - term benefits, and the US biodiesel policy hearing will be held on the 8th - 9th. The US has launched a new round of tariff wars globally, increasing macro - risks. In the producing areas, institutions expect a 1 - 5% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in June, a 4 - 12% increase in exports, and a slight 0.24% decrease in end - of - month inventory. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. In the US, the soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. In China, the spot trading of soybean oil is average, and there is restocking of palm oil. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with 4 new palm oil purchase contracts added in July in late June. The inventories of soybean and palm oil have increased to 960,000 tons and 540,000 tons respectively. The rebound space of CBOT soybeans is limited. In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 61% to nearly 1 million tons. Institutions expect an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports, a reverse - seasonal decline in production, and a halt in inventory growth in June. Coupled with the short - term benefits of US biodiesel, BMD crude palm oil has reached the 4000 mark again. The export of Canadian rapeseed is strong, with annual exports exceeding 9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 50%. The supply of old - crop rapeseed remains tight, and the producing areas of rapeseed continue to be strong [7]. - In operation, the short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been digested. The market is waiting for the hearing and the MPOB monthly report. Coupled with the resurgence of global tariff disputes, the upward trend of rapeseed and palm oil has slowed down. For long - term unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. The spread between September rapeseed and palm oil is in the range of 1100 - 1200, and the strategy of expanding the spread should be held cautiously [8] Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - The short - term benefits of US biodiesel have been realized, and the market is waiting for relevant events. The market situation of various oils at home and abroad is analyzed, including production, inventory, and trading volume. Strategies are proposed based on the above analysis [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, domestic and foreign palm oil, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil all stopped falling and rebounded, while the center of Dalian soybean oil moved down [10]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **External Factors**: The 45Z tax credit act has been passed, realizing short - term benefits for US biodiesel, and the market is waiting for the hearing on the 8th - 9th. The US has restarted a tariff war globally [13]. - **US Soybeans**: The area affected by drought in US soybeans has further shrunk, and the good - to - excellent rate remains at 66%. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, and the quarterly inventory as of June 1st is 1.008 billion bushels. Last week, the premium of Brazilian soybeans reached a maximum of 140 cents per bushel [13]. - **Palm Oil**: Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil production in June decreased by 1 - 5%, exports increased by 4 - 12%, and end - of - month inventory decreased slightly by 0.24%. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. Institutions estimate that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, a nearly 11 - month high [13]. - **Import and Crushing**: In late June, 4 new palm oil purchase contracts for July were added. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, with an increase in arrivals. The soybean inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate. The rapeseed crushing rate has continued to decline to a low of 40,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has stopped decreasing [13]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the soybean oil inventory has accumulated for 9 consecutive weeks to 960,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory has dropped below 800,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 100,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory has increased significantly to 540,000 tons, completely out of the low - inventory range. The accumulation of soybean and palm oil inventories has led to an increase in the total inventory of the three major oils to 2.18 million tons, compared with 1.77 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - **Spot**: Last week, the spot prices of oils fluctuated as a whole. As of July 4th, the price of soybean oil was 8135 yuan per ton, a 1.15% decrease from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8635 yuan per ton, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9783 yuan per ton, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [13]. - **Demand**: Last week, the overall spot trading volume of oils decreased. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 32,200 tons, compared with 77,700 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2432 tons, compared with 7766 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, compared with 4000 tons in the previous week [13]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of strong crude oil and favorable US biodiesel policies, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [6]. - The rainfall in the Midwest soybean - growing areas in the next half - month is not conducive to soybean growth; in June, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly while exports increased significantly, which is positive for palm oil; the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historically high level, and the future import volume may gradually decrease, and the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be monitored. The proposed increase in the US biodiesel blending volume in 2026 is positive for US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil may follow the upward trend, but there may be uncertainties [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 09 be around 7,800. For options, it is advisable to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's policy on importing Canadian rapeseed, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Periodic and Spot Markets - Last week, oils and fats were oscillating and bullish, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices and favorable US biodiesel policies [18]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil is fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 1.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. The report was generally bearish [34]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of June 13, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contracts were 81,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41% [65]. 4. Demand Side - The document provides charts of the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the three major oils and fats over the years, but no specific analysis is given [56][60][62]. 5. Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41%. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 6. Disk Import Profit - As of June 20, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the July shipment was - 194 yuan/ton [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions, favorable policies, and increased export volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 16, palm oil futures opened at 8170.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 8482.00 CNY, with a price increase of 3.76% [1]. - The market sentiment is bullish, with significant trading activity leading to a surge in palm oil prices [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Tensions in the Middle East have caused a spike in international crude oil prices, positively impacting the oilseed sector [1]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy expectations are favorable, boosting market sentiment [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 27%, contributing to a rise in domestic palm oil transaction volumes and inventory levels reaching 400,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Production and Export Data - Data from SPPOMA indicates a 17.24% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production for the period of June 1-10, 2025 [1]. - Export figures for Malaysian palm oil show increases of 26.4%, 32.69%, and 8.07% compared to the previous month, according to ITS, SGS, and AmSpec data [1]. - The strong export performance in May, particularly from India, along with reduced import tariffs, has further stimulated market optimism [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The domestic oilseed market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with recommendations for palm oil support levels around 7800 CNY [1]. - Caution is advised for positions above 8500 CNY due to potential inventory accumulation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, soybean meal is expected to show a trend of first weakening and then strengthening, mainly in a large - range volatile market under the influence of increased domestic supply, inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and speculation about US soybean weather. If the US soybean weather remains favorable and there is no definite news about the US biodiesel policy, soybean meal will continue to operate weakly [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be under pressure for adjustment due to the listing of domestic new rapeseed and the decline in soybean meal prices. However, after the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is also expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean Market - US soybean planting progress reached 8% this week, higher than 7% in the same period last year, and the rainfall outlook in the next 15 days is smooth, with a good planting prospect. South American soybean production is basically a foregone conclusion of a bumper harvest, with Brazil having a good harvest and Argentina entering the harvest stage, and the latest estimated yield of Argentine soybeans is 49 million tons [4]. - The USDA April report slightly favored the bearish side. It maintained South American and US soybean yields, adjusted non - major soybean - producing countries' yields, and global soybean import, export, and crushing data, slightly increasing the global soybean ending inventory by 1.06 million tons to 122 million tons. For US soybeans, the crushing volume increased month - on - month, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory [15]. - The planting area of US soybeans in 2025 is expected to be 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations and a 4% year - on - year decrease compared to 2024 [19]. - As of the week of April 20, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than market expectations. However, according to CPC data, there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [19]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply and Inventory - In April, China entered the stage of concentrated supply of South American soybeans. Although port and soybean inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, due to the slow customs clearance of soybeans at ports and low oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventories are at a low level. After the May Day holiday, soybean meal supply is likely to gradually ease [5]. - As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous week and the same period last year [25]. - As of April 25, the weekly soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, a significant decrease compared to the previous week and the same period last year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 4.35 days, less than 7.23 days in the same period last year [30]. Consumption - In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the inventories of eggs and meat poultry were generally stable, with an optimistic outlook for feed consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The market focus has shifted to the concentrated arrival of soybeans and US soybean planting. Before the holiday, be cautious about short - selling operations. In May, soybean meal is expected to be affected by multiple factors and show a volatile trend [5]. 3.3 Global Rapeseed Market - Canadian rapeseed has strong domestic and export demand, and it is expected to exceed the annual export forecast. The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen to the pre - trade - war level. The planting area of new - season Canadian rapeseed has decreased, but the yield has increased slightly year - on - year due to the increase in yield per unit [7]. - The estimated yield of rapeseed in the EU region in the new season is stable at around 19 million tons, and the annual import data of rapeseed has increased year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions [7]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply and Inventory - Due to the increase in the price of Canadian rapeseed, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in China has dropped significantly, which may lead to a decrease in the enthusiasm for future rapeseed imports and is favorable for the long - term price expectation. Currently, the commercial inventory of rapeseed meal in China is relatively high, and there is still short - term supply pressure [8]. - As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the monthly crushing volume was 317,000 tons, both lower than the same period last year [42]. - As of April 29, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 9,700 tons, and the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 715,000 tons, showing different trends of increase and decrease compared to the previous week [46]. Consumption - The opening of the aquaculture season is beneficial to the consumption expectation of rapeseed meal. The substitution consumption of rapeseed meal has been opened up due to the expansion of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference [8]. Market Outlook - After the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3.5 Feed Market - From January to February 2025, the national industrial feed production was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 47.2%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 13.3% [54]. 3.6 Livestock and Poultry Breeding Market - In the first quarter, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1% [57]. - In April, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 145.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 58.8 yuan per head, showing different trends compared to March [64]. - In April, the egg - laying hen breeding profit rebounded month - on - month, reaching 2.26 yuan per bird as of April 24. The white - feather broiler breeding profit decreased month - on - month, reaching - 0.12 yuan per bird as of April 27 [67].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库，本周大豆开机回升，预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易对峙利多情绪 | | 豆粕 | | 转弱，昨日豆粕延续小幅收跌。豆粕焦点再度转入基本面，由于短期国内边际供应 | | | | 预计逐步增加，且国际层面美豆未来十五天降雨充沛，在缺乏基本面利多支持下， | | | | 豆粕短期偏弱偏空运行为主。主力【3050，2965】 | | | 短期下跌 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期，加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 600 元/吨以上，菜粕替代性下 | | 菜粕 | | 降。盘面上，受短期库存及供应压力影响，菜粕短期承压下跌，偏空对待。主力 | | | | 【2540,2660】 | | 棕榈油 | 短线反弹整理 | 4 月国际棕 ...