Core Viewpoint - September is historically the most volatile month for the US market, with uncertainties such as potential Fed rate cuts and political pressures on the Fed adding to the suspense of whether the S&P 500 can maintain its strength after reaching historical highs [3][5]. Market Trends - The S&P 500 index has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17% since 1927, and a more concerning average drop of 1.93% over the past decade [5][8]. - In the first year of a presidential term, the S&P 500's decline probability in September rises to 58%, with an average drop of 1.62% [5]. Valuation Risks - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 22 times, nearing levels seen at the end of the internet bubble, raising concerns about potential sell-off pressures during portfolio rebalancing at the end of September [8]. - Hedge funds have increased their stock holdings to the 80th percentile, indicating a risk of overextension in positions [8]. Sector Performance - Since August, cyclical sectors and small-cap stocks have led the market, with the non-essential consumer sector ETF rising by 4.3% and the Russell 2000 small-cap index increasing by 7.3%, significantly outperforming large tech stocks [8]. Economic Indicators - Recent US economic data presents a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls declining significantly from May to July, while retail sales and major retailers' earnings indicate strong consumer spending [8][11]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut has increased due to the significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with Chairman Powell indicating a shift from a cautious stance [11]. - Market pricing suggests that while a rate cut in September is fully priced in, the probability of more than two cuts this year has decreased from over 50% to below 30% [13]. Political Pressures - Political pressures on the Fed, particularly from President Trump, raise concerns about the Fed's ability to maintain its independence in monetary policy [13]. - The potential removal of Fed officials could lead to a more dovish stance on interest rates, facilitating future rate cuts [13].

Group 1 - Indonesia's stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index, experienced a significant decline of 1.5% last Friday, leading the losses among global indices [1] - On Monday, the Jakarta Composite Index further dropped, reaching a maximum decline of 3.6%, marking the largest drop since April 8 [1] - As of the latest update, the index's decline was reduced to 1.11%, closing at 7743.73 [2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that political risks in Indonesia are rising, which may increase the risk premium in the stock market [2] - The Bank of Indonesia is committed to monitoring market conditions to maintain exchange rate stability and ensure sufficient liquidity for the rupiah [2] - Prior to the recent events, the Indonesian stock market had reached a historical high, with an approximate increase of 9.6% year-to-date [2][4] Group 3 - Economic growth in Indonesia has exceeded expectations, with the second quarter growth rate returning to above 5%, boosting market confidence [4] - Indonesia's ongoing restrictions on resource exports and efforts to localize manufacturing are attracting investment and improving its position in the international supply chain [4] - The implementation of a mandatory foreign exchange retention policy has significantly increased foreign exchange reserves, enhancing confidence in the rupiah's exchange rate [4]

Group 1 - The German stock market is currently at a historical high valuation, with the DAX index up 21% this year, and the expected P/E ratio approaching 16 times, exceeding the past decade's average of 13 times [1] - Analysts predict a 4% growth in earnings per share for DAX constituents by 2025, with a 14% profit growth expected next year, surpassing the S&P 500's projections [2] - The strong performance of the DAX index is primarily attributed to four major stocks: Rheinmetall, Siemens, Allianz, and Deutsche Bank, which collectively contributed nearly half of the index's gains [3] Group 2 - There is caution regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, as some leading stocks may have limited domestic revenue exposure, raising concerns about actual earnings meeting expectations [3] - The German government's €500 billion infrastructure fund, allocated over 12 years, presents uncertainties, as some funds may be used to fill state budget gaps rather than for new investments [4] - Over 80% of DAX constituents derive their revenue from overseas, making them vulnerable to global economic slowdowns, particularly in export-oriented sectors like the automotive industry [5]

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 27 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 26 日，万得全 A 低开后震荡上行，尾盘快速回落，收跌 0.09%，超 6 成 个股上涨；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.37%、 0.67%、0.02%，中证 500 收盘上涨 0.18%，中小盘股表现更优。指数期货整体表 现弱于现货，IF、IH 主力合约分别收跌 0.57%、0.71%，IC、IM 主力合约分别收 涨 0.10%、0.04%（按前一交易日收 ...

智通财经APP注意到，尽管投资者对经济放缓的迹象和过高的股市估值感到担忧，但他们正从美国企业 界获得一些安慰。这种安慰来自企业的营收预测。 尽管投资者对特朗普总统的贸易战和美联储的货币政策仍存不确定性，但企业的营收预测持续改善。 杰富瑞的分析显示，在本季度调整了营收预期的标普500指数成分股公司中，有44%上调了预期——这 是自2021年以来的最高比例。而下调预期的比例仅为14%，是该公司自2015年有数据以来的最低水平。 "管理层基本上没有理由在他们没有100%把握的事情上提高指引，因为他们知道这么做的后果，"杰富 瑞股票研究产品管理高级副总裁安德鲁·格林鲍姆表示。"我认为这很大程度上是推动股市上涨的动 力。" 美联储官员正在应对仍高于2%目标且正在上升的通胀，以及显示疲软迹象的就业数据。关税将如何影 响这些因素的不确定性也日益凸显。 然而美国企业界几乎没有表现出担忧的迹象。 摩根士丹利对财报电话会议的分析发现，随着公司在4月初爆发的全球贸易战后重新调整展望，本季 度"订单簿"和"上调指引"的提及率升至近期高点。 通信服务、金融、非必需消费品和信息技术是标普500指数中，过去几个月2025年和2026年每股 ...

格隆汇8月11日｜美国银行8月份全球基金经理调查显示，净91%的受访者认为美国股市估值过高，比例 创历史新高。调查显示，净49%的基金经理认为，新兴市场股票是估值最为低估，比例为2024年2月以 来的最高水平。 ...

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Narrative - The U.S. stock market showed resilience despite signs of weakness in the labor market, with the S&P 500 recovering losses and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new all-time high [4][3] - Three hypotheses were proposed to explain this resilience: new AI stimuli, healthy capital flows despite reduced speculative demand, and the notion that stock markets do not directly reflect the economy [5][6][7] Group 2: Market Framework - The overall market sentiment remains positive, but increased risk asset holdings may complicate future trading [8] - AI spending has exceeded expectations, while employment growth has significantly declined since Q1, leading to a volatile market environment [8] - Short-term risk balance is uncertain, with expectations of consolidation in August and a challenging technical situation in September, but a bullish trend is anticipated for the second half of 2025 [8] Group 3: Key Points and Data Analysis - The U.S. labor market's health is under scrutiny, with mixed initial jobless claims and a disappointing ISM services index, leading to a GDP tracking expectation of 1.2% for Q3 [12] - Systematic trading institutions have largely completed their buying of global index futures, and discretionary investors have increased long positions, while retail investor demand has weakened [12] - The impact of tariffs is seen as destructive but not catastrophic, with the market no longer viewing it as a significant variable [13] Group 4: U.S. Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech companies reported strong Q2 earnings, with growth acceleration across various sectors, including cloud computing and AI [14] - The Nasdaq 100 index's P/E ratio is approaching historical highs, suggesting a need for consolidation, but potential earnings growth justifies a positive outlook on tech valuations [14] - Concerns about AI's impact on employment are noted, with a significant rise in unemployment rates among tech workers aged 20-30 since early 2024 [14] Group 5: Global Market Insights - The Japanese stock market has shown resilience, with the Nikkei index reaching new highs, while India's market faces challenges despite strong fundamentals [15] - Market depth and risk transfer ease are deteriorating, indicating a sensitive trading environment with increased price volatility [15] Group 6: Credit Market Dynamics - The surge in new corporate bond issuances suggests ample credit supply in the U.S. financial system, supported by ongoing demand and rising coupon rates [16] - A favorable policy environment for large corporations is noted, with pressures on consumers due to rising prices and stagnant real wage growth [16] Group 7: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes going long on U.S. stocks (particularly tech), value storage assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin), shorting the dollar, and steepening yield curve trades [16] - This strategy is viewed as a preferred defensive measure for 2025, despite potential short-term underperformance in certain components [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Cook expressed concerns about the high valuation of the stock market, indicating potential worries for investors [1] Group 1 - The stock market is currently perceived to have high valuations, which raises concerns among financial analysts and investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI warn that the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months due to high market valuations, rising inflation, slowing job growth, and weak consumer spending [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically poor-performing months for the S&P 500 index [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for the S&P 500 has exceeded 70, suggesting that the market may be "overheated" [1] Group 2: Options Market Insights - The cost of hedging against a market downturn is increasing, with the implied volatility premium for put options reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden sell-off in the Vietnamese stock market on July 29 was primarily driven by foreign investors cashing out after a period of strong market performance, leading to significant declines in major indices and sectors [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, the Ho Chi Minh Index (VN Index) experienced a drop of 4.11%, closing at 1493.41 points, while the VN30 Index fell by 4.38% to 1621.29 points [3]. - The VN Index reached a historical high of 1566.74 points earlier that day, marking a cumulative increase of 45.9% compared to its low in early April [5][7]. - The trading volume surged dramatically, with nearly 14 trillion VND traded within the first hour, causing some brokerage systems to malfunction [5]. Group 2: Causes of the Sell-off - The primary reason for the market decline was the aggressive selling by foreign investors, who net sold over 9390 billion VND during the morning session, focusing on large-cap stocks that had previously supported the index [5]. - The high valuation of the market, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 15 times, has raised concerns about overvaluation, as corporate profit growth has not kept pace with stock price increases [5][6]. - Investors are reportedly increasing their leverage, with some brokerage firms reaching their margin limits, which could restrict short-term price increases [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Vietnamese economy showed strong growth, with a GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first half of the year, the highest for the same period since 2011 [9]. - Foreign investors had net bought over 400 million USD in Vietnamese stocks in July, marking the second month of net inflows, contrasting with outflows from other Southeast Asian markets [9]. - The potential reclassification of Vietnam in the FTSE index could attract up to 6 billion USD in capital inflows, further influencing market dynamics [9].