衰退式降息

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9月FOMC会议点评:联储预防式降息的背景与影响
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-18 14:44
Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members in favor[29] - The economic growth forecast for this year was raised from 1.4% to 1.6%, while the unemployment rate forecast for next year was adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[31] - The dot plot indicates a divided view on future rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 members predicting three or more cuts this year, while one member forecasts a total cut of 150 basis points[41] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Current economic conditions support a "preventive" rate cut, characterized by weakening but not deteriorating employment and economic indicators[4] - The recession risk is low, with the NBER's recession probability at only 0.8%, significantly below historical averages[5] - The personal credit default rate has increased but remains manageable, indicating overall good health in household and banking sectors[4] Group 3: Market Implications - The preventive rate cut is expected to boost equity markets, particularly benefiting interest-sensitive sectors like real estate[6] - The dollar index may experience a slight rebound due to improved fundamentals, while the long-term interest rates may face upward pressure if employment improves or inflation remains high[7] - Domestic monetary policy remains focused internally, with limited necessity for the central bank to follow the Fed's rate cuts due to unclear demand-side improvements[28]
联储预防式降息的背景与影响——9月FOMC会议点评
一瑜中的· 2025-09-18 14:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve decided to implement a preventive interest rate cut of 25 basis points, indicating a shift in economic outlook and potential future monetary policy adjustments [2][23]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, which was in line with market expectations [23]. - The meeting statement highlighted an increase in downside risks to employment, removing previous affirmations of a robust labor market [24]. - Economic growth forecasts for the next two years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for next year was lowered, and inflation expectations were increased [25]. Group 2: Economic Context for Preventive Rate Cuts - The current economic situation supports a preventive rate cut, characterized by weakening but not deteriorating economic and employment conditions [4][10]. - Household financial conditions remain strong, with high-income consumer spending robust despite slowing income growth [11]. - Business confidence is improving, particularly in the AI sector, and commercial credit growth is on the rise, indicating resilience in corporate investment [11]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - The preventive rate cut is expected to positively impact U.S. equities, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate, potentially leading to improved earnings expectations [6][14]. - U.S. Treasury yields may face limited downward movement due to already priced-in rate cut expectations, with potential for rebound if employment data improves or inflation remains elevated [6][14]. - The dollar index may experience slight rebounds as overseas currency hedging effects diminish, alongside improving fundamental expectations [6][15]. Group 4: Domestic Monetary Policy Considerations - Domestic monetary policy remains focused on internal factors, with the necessity for credit stimulus not strong given unclear demand-side improvements [7][22]. - The current strong equity market limits the central bank's ability to loosen monetary policy without risking excessive capital flow into non-productive areas [7][22]. - The optimal monetary policy choice remains inward-focused, with no immediate need to follow the Fed's rate cuts, as domestic economic cycles are stabilizing [7][22].
长江策略-探七轮美联储降息规律,迎全球“Risk on”行情——“重估牛”系列
2025-09-18 13:09
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, particularly focusing on the implications of potential interest rate cuts on various asset classes and markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Slowdown**: Recent macroeconomic data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. economic momentum, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising for three consecutive months, suggesting a cooling labor market [7][15][20]. 2. **Inflation Trends**: July's inflation data showed a moderate increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%. Core CPI slightly exceeded expectations at 3.1%, but overall inflation pressures remain manageable [15][20]. 3. **Market Expectations for Rate Cuts**: The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with a 100% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference reinforced this dovish outlook [7][20][21]. 4. **Historical Rate Cut Cycles**: The report reviews seven historical rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting differences in driving factors and asset performance during these periods. The cycles are categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts [8][26][29]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategies**: - **Equities**: A risk-on environment is anticipated, with developed markets expected to perform better than emerging markets. Specific sectors such as technology, real estate, and finance in A-shares, as well as real estate, finance, and consumer discretionary in Hong Kong stocks, are projected to outperform [9][10]. - **Bonds**: U.S. Treasuries are seen as ideal during recessionary cuts but less favorable in preventive cuts [9]. - **Currency**: The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken during preventive cut cycles [9]. - **Gold**: Historically, gold performs well during preventive cut cycles due to its inflation-hedging and safe-haven properties [9]. 6. **Focus on Upcoming Rate Cut**: The upcoming rate cut on September 18, 2024, is expected to initiate a new cycle of equity market expansion, particularly benefiting Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology, finance, and real estate sectors [10][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diverse Reactions to Monetary Policy**: Different asset classes react variably to monetary policy changes, reflecting regional economic fundamentals and capital flows [33][39]. 2. **Performance of Risk Assets**: Historical data shows that during previous rate cut cycles, certain markets like Hong Kong and gold have outperformed others, indicating the importance of strategic asset allocation [33][39][52]. 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: In the context of the 2001-2003 rate cut cycle, sectors such as utilities and energy in A-shares showed resilience, while healthcare and technology in Hong Kong exhibited significant gains [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. monetary policy on various asset classes and market sectors.
美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期:——2025年9月FOMC会议点评
EBSCN· 2025-09-18 07:57
Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts by 25 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.00% to 4.25%[2] - The Fed's guidance indicates a potential for three more rate cuts within the year, adjusting the median rate forecast down from 3.9% to 3.6%[14] - The meeting's tone was dovish, reflecting concerns over employment risks and a shift in the balance of risks[3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.06%, and the 2-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 3.52%[4] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point cut was not fully met, leading to a mixed reaction in equities and a rebound in bond yields[3][7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 91,100 jobs over the past 12 months, intensifying rate cut expectations[5][6] - The Fed's economic outlook was upgraded, suggesting that rate cuts could stimulate durable goods consumption and real estate investment[8][14] - Inflation pressures are expected to remain manageable, with the Fed indicating that the current economic conditions do not warrant aggressive rate hikes[21][26]
美联储终于降息了!但不要上头,这次降息跟去年不一样
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 04:47
Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, but the underlying logic differs significantly from last year's cuts, leading to potential risks alongside opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Differences in Rate Cuts - The current rate cut is categorized as a "recessionary cut," aimed at addressing a deteriorating job market and persistent inflation, contrasting with last year's "preventive cut" which was initiated under stable economic conditions [4][7]. - Recent non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised downward, indicating a rapid deterioration in the U.S. job market [6]. - The U.S. economy is facing stagflation, with inflation remaining far from the 2% target, complicating the effectiveness of the rate cut [7]. Group 2: Global Response and Economic Context - Unlike last year, other countries are not under significant exchange rate pressure and have already adjusted their rates, limiting the global stimulus effect of the Fed's rate cut this year [9]. - The European Central Bank has already cut rates in June and is not expected to follow the Fed's lead immediately, indicating a lack of synchronized global monetary policy [9]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - China's economic stimulus approach has shifted from broad-based measures to targeted support, focusing on innovation and consumption rather than indiscriminate easing [10][12]. - Initiatives include encouraging small tech firms to go public and providing consumer loan subsidies to boost domestic demand, reflecting a more strategic economic policy [12]. - The current low-interest-rate environment limits further rate cuts, making it challenging to replicate last year's broad-based economic benefits [12].
美联储降息后资产如何走向?复盘历史我们得到几个答案
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-09-18 00:00
Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [1] - This rate cut is more preventive in nature, aimed at addressing economic slowdown rather than a deep recession, which historically benefits risk assets more than recessionary rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Various Asset Classes - Historical data shows that during past rate cut cycles, various asset classes have reacted significantly, with equities, bonds, and commodities showing varied performance [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the rate cut, with a nearly 100% success rate in price appreciation within six months of a rate cut [3] - The short-term interest rates are more sensitive to the Fed's policy changes, while long-term rates are influenced by inflation expectations and term premiums [6] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market is likely to experience short-term downward pressure but long-term benefits as liquidity improves and corporate financing costs decrease [9] - Historical trends indicate that after preventive rate cuts, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 15% and Nasdaq by 20% during the 2019 rate cut cycle [9] Group 4: A-Shares and H-Shares - A-shares are expected to benefit from liquidity easing and increased risk appetite, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [10] - H-shares are more sensitive to external liquidity conditions, with both preventive and recessionary rate cuts leading to overall price increases [12] Group 5: Gold and Commodities - Gold prices typically rise during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10%-15% due to lower opportunity costs and increased demand amid geopolitical risks [16][15] - Oil prices are primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics, with limited correlation to rate cuts, although demand recovery can lead to price increases in a soft landing scenario [25] Group 6: Currency Impacts - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the short term following the rate cut, with historical declines of 6%-8% during preventive rate cuts [21] - The Chinese yuan may experience reduced depreciation pressure due to narrowed interest rate differentials, with expectations of appreciation following past rate cuts [28]
美联储若将降息,港股历史表现如何?
Capital Securities· 2025-09-17 11:17
Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in September, with discussions focusing on the magnitude of the cut, speculated to be between 25 to 75 basis points, with a 74% probability for a 75 basis point cut as of September 14, 2025[2][11] - Historical data indicates that Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to changes in U.S. monetary policy due to the linked exchange rate system between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar[10] Group 2: Historical Performance of Hong Kong Indices - In previous rate cut cycles, the three major Hong Kong indices (Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) typically exhibit a volatile pattern in the 30 trading days leading up to the cut, followed by a period of adjustment post-cut[22][29] - The Hang Seng Tech Index tends to show smaller declines immediately after a rate cut and greater gains in the subsequent period compared to the other indices[29][31] Group 3: Market Reactions Post Rate Cut - On average, the three indices tend to decline in the two trading days before the cut, rise on the day before, and then drop on the day of the cut and the following two days[33][39] - After a rate cut, the Hang Seng Tech Index has historically shown a stronger recovery, with average returns of 1.03% in the four weeks following the cut, compared to 0.08% for the Hang Seng Index[19][24] Group 4: Comparison with Previous Rate Cut Cycles - The current environment is more complex than previous rate cut cycles in 2019 and 2024, with persistent inflation and economic slowdown concerns[49][51] - Historical examples of "recessionary rate cuts" show that the performance of the indices can vary significantly based on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, indicating that a recessionary context does not guarantee a decline in stock prices[56][62] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include historical data bias, extrapolation risks, and the possibility that the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts may be lower than expected[61]
【百利好议息专题】降息已成定局 黄金剑指4000
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 10:47
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 3.9% probability of a 50 basis point cut, which has positively impacted gold prices, pushing them from approximately $3,310 to a peak of $3,702 in the past month [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady after three cuts totaling 100 basis points since September of last year, leading to concerns about a potential economic recession [3]. - Recent economic indicators, including a weak job market and easing inflation pressures, have bolstered expectations for an interest rate cut [3][6]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - 95% of investors view the upcoming rate cut as a "preemptive cut," which historically tends to support asset price increases more effectively than "recessionary cuts" that are reactive to economic downturns [6]. - In the last 30 years, gold has averaged a 32% increase during Fed rate cut cycles, with the current cycle seeing a 41% increase in gold prices [7]. Group 3: Key Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, purchasing over 1,000 tons annually since 2022, which is a significant bullish factor for gold [7]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern instability, have enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7]. - A weakening dollar and expectations of declining real interest rates are anticipated to further elevate gold prices, as historical trends show a negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - Following dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, market expectations for a September rate cut have remained above 90%, indicating that the cut is largely priced in, but there may be short-term adjustment pressures [11]. - Long-term bullish factors for gold remain intact, with potential price targets reaching $4,000 as the upward trend may just be beginning [11].
今晚,美联储将重启降息
财联社· 2025-09-17 09:28
正如同有着"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos所形容的那样,今晚美联储即将召开多年来最为奇特的一场议息会议…… 外界普遍预计,受近期就业增长放缓推动,美联储官员将在周三为期两天的会议结束时降息25个基点。在上月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 上,美联储主席鲍威尔其实就已暗示了降息的临近,当时他转向优先考虑就业问题,而非挥之不去的通胀担忧。 然而, 尽管美联储时隔9个月后的重启降息,本身就已足够引人瞩目,但今晚这个特殊议息夜的看点,显然还远不止于此——在历史上,美 联储还从未像本周这样,直到议息会议前的最后一天,才正式敲定了本次议息会议的参会官员名单…… 美国参议院在本周一仅以一票的微弱优势,通过了对白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰出任美联储理事的提名;同样是在周一,美联储理事库克 则在经历了与特朗普政府的官司后,"侥幸"留在了美联储理事会中。不难预见的是,这两位美国总统特朗普眼里的"亲信"与"眼中钉",很 可能会先在美联储内部上演一场"口水战"。而特朗普在本周早些时候,则已明确呼吁美联储"大幅降息"! (米兰今晚将坐在库格勒位子上,与库克仅一席之隔) 抛开这些政治纷争,投资者也料将密切聚焦美联储主席 ...
美联储即将启动降息,降息周期启动哪些资产最受益?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 03:01
美联储即将迎来议息会议,市场预测美联储降息的概率很高,目前最可能出现降息25个基点和50个基点 的情况。假如美联储继续选择不降息,或者宣布降息75个基点,均属于超出预期的举措。但是,结合机 构的推测,今年9月美联储降息25个基点,可能是大概率的事情。 去年9月,美联储启动了一轮降息周期,但在短短三个月左右的时间里,美联储累计降息了100个基点。 在此之后,美联储一直保持谨慎观望的态度,一直没有重启降息的周期。 在今年8月非农数据远低于市场预期以及失业率保持高企的状态下,美联储很可能会在9月份降息,并启 动新一轮的降息周期。 针对这一次美联储的降息预期,市场有几个关注点。 第一个关注点,美联储到底是采取预防式降息还是衰退式降息。 第二个关注点,美联储首次降息的力度有多大。 第三个关注点,美联储此次降息周期会延续多长时间。 美联储降息属于预防式降息还是衰退式降息,两者之间的区别是比较大的。 对股票市场而言,可能会因美联储降息发生分化的现象。例如,对成长股上市公司来说,假如美联储开 启新一轮降息周期,而且倾向于预防式降息的性质,那么将会进一步推动价格的上涨,成长股的估值定 价体系会得到进一步提升。对绩优股、蓝筹股而 ...