Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, indicating a cautious approach amid rising risks of both unemployment and inflation, suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the increased risks of higher unemployment and inflation, reflecting a dual mandate concern [2] - Despite these risks, economic data remains robust, with low unemployment and ongoing consumer spending and business investment, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] - The Fed is unlikely to initiate rate cuts in the short term, especially not preemptively, as current conditions do not warrant immediate action [3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Two potential scenarios for future rate cuts are outlined: 1. If trade negotiations fail and tariffs remain high, the Fed may be forced into a "recession-style" rate cut, potentially reducing rates by 100 basis points by year-end [4] 2. If trade negotiations yield positive results, rate cuts may be delayed until December, with a more moderate reduction expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process, with the current macroeconomic environment being less favorable for capital markets [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound this week, with the Dow Jones up 2.48%, S&P 500 rising over 4.5%, and Nasdaq increasing by 6.73% [1] - Despite the rebound, some Wall Street institutions remain pessimistic about the market's future [1][2] - Bank of America warns that the recent stock market rally will be temporary, advising investors to sell during the rebound [4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that foreign investors have withdrawn $63 billion from the U.S. stock market since early March, with Europe being the largest seller [3] - A survey by JPMorgan indicates that U.S. stocks will see the most significant capital outflow this year, while cash is viewed as the most favorable asset class [3] - Analysts expect continued market volatility, with upcoming earnings reports from tech giants being crucial for market direction [5] Group 3 - The U.S. economy faces multiple challenges, including long-term growth imbalances, significant wealth gaps, and over $36 trillion in national debt [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a slowdown in U.S. economic growth to 1.8% by 2025, marking the largest downward revision among developed economies [6] - Wall Street anticipates a substantial slowdown in U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter, with Goldman Sachs predicting a growth rate of only 0.1% [6] Group 4 - Concerns over "stagflation" have heightened, leading to increased volatility in U.S. markets, with simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks and bonds [7] - The U.S. government's debt burden is rising, with increased financing costs due to high inflation and interest rates, raising concerns about potential defaults [7] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement "recession-style" rate cuts are growing, reflecting deteriorating economic fundamentals [7]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高，而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量，还是就业意愿来看，美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高，也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响，美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险，特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭，对低收入人群损害更大，加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上，从经济视角来看，美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题，但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源：US Census Bureau，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...

中金公司研报认为，特朗普扬言解雇鲍威尔，使美国货币政策站上了市场风口。该机构认为，美联储的 政策路径将取决于关税对通胀与需求的相对影响，而这又取决于关税的替代效应和收入效应哪个更强。 考虑两种情形，一种是美国与贸易伙伴的谈判缺乏实质性进展，90天后美国有效关税率仍然很高，此时 收入效应主导，经济需求走弱或促使美联储从7月份开始降息，全年累计降息幅度或达100个基点。另一 种情形是谈判取得成果，关税降低，替代效应主导下需求冲击相对温和，但通胀压力更具持续性，美联 储或延迟宽松步伐，全年仅在12月小幅降息一次。对市场而言，尽管第一种情形下货币宽松来得更早， 但这种"衰退式"降息反映的是经济基本面恶化，反而会对风险资产形成压制。 ...

一个案例是美国对进口洗衣机征收关税。2012-2018年，美国先后三次对进口洗衣机征收额外关税。其中，2012年和2016年分别对从墨西哥、韩国以及中 国进口的洗衣机单独征收反倾销税，导致美国从这些国家进口洗衣机数量下降。然而，美国CPI篮子中的洗衣机价格并未上涨，这是因为消费者转向购买 从泰国、越南进口的洗衣机，从而通过"国别转移"实现了替代效应。随后，2018年美国全面征收"保障关税"（safeguard tariffs）。由于几乎覆盖了所有洗 衣机供应国，消费者难以寻找替代品，洗衣机价格指数跳升17%。 图表：美国洗衣机价格在2018年全面加关税后大幅上涨 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 中金研究 特朗普扬言解雇鲍威尔，使美国货币政策站上了市场风口。我们认为，美联储的政策路径将取决于关税对通胀与需求的相对影响，而这又取决于关税 的替代效应和收入效应哪个更强。我们考虑两种情形，一种是美国与贸易伙伴的谈判缺乏实质性进展，90天后美国有效关税率仍然很高，此时收入效 应主导，经济需求走弱或促使美联储从7月份开始降息，全年累计降息幅度或达100个基点。另一种情形是谈判取得成果，关税降低，替代效应主导下 需求 ...