Core Viewpoint - The intertwining of U.S. military and financial hegemony is creating a vicious cycle of military spending and currency devaluation, leading to a global arms race dominated by the U.S. [1] Military Spending - The U.S. military budget for 2024 is projected to reach $997 billion, accounting for 37% of global military expenditures, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion by fiscal year 2026 [3] - A significant portion of this budget, 44%, is allocated to personnel salaries and pensions, raising concerns about the actual investment in weapon modernization compared to China [3] - The funding is primarily aimed at maintaining 140 military bases and 800 overseas military facilities [3] Financial Strategy - The U.S. is leveraging military deterrence and financial extraction by compelling allies to purchase American weapons and binding them to the dollar-based financial system [4] - In 2023, U.S. military aid to Ukraine amounted to $6 billion, with over 40% returning to the U.S. defense industry through arms orders, illustrating the closed-loop of military aid, arms trade, and dollar repatriation [4] Currency Devaluation - The U.S. dollar index has fallen by 8% since 2024, while the U.S. is transferring the costs of its hegemony through "fiscal deficit monetization," exporting inflation globally [5] - The national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies shifting debt costs to countries holding dollar assets [5] Political Implications - The military-financial model is increasingly constraining U.S. domestic spending, with military expenditure reaching 3.2% of GDP in 2024, significantly above NATO's 2% standard [7] - The military-industrial complex is influencing U.S. politics, as seen in Trump's 2025 legislation linking military spending increases to tax cuts for the wealthy [7] Global Response - The credibility of the dollar is being undermined, with oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia exploring non-dollar settlement systems and BRICS countries promoting local currency swap agreements [9] - To maintain its hegemony, the U.S. is compelled to increase military spending, with the 2026 budget focusing on next-generation aircraft and nuclear modernization for global military interventions [9] Conclusion - The U.S. has demonstrated over 70 years that hegemony cannot be sustained indefinitely, as military spending erodes future prospects and currency devaluation undermines global trust [11] - A new global governance order based on multilateralism is needed, moving away from the zero-sum game of military intervention [11]

Group 1 - The current gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to a strong US dollar, volatility in US Treasury bonds, and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The US dollar index rebounded by 0.3%, surpassing the 100 mark, which increased the cost of gold for non-US currency holders [1] - The passage of the Trump tax cut bill, which is expected to increase government debt by $3.8 trillion, has created an unusual market reaction despite expectations of negative impacts on the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Senate is preparing for a challenging battle over the tax bill, with potential significant adjustments expected, particularly regarding social welfare and energy provisions [3] - The gold market is under pressure from the technical rebound of the dollar and the sell-off of US Treasuries, but long-term support for gold is being built by inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to credit concerns [3] - Investors are advised to focus on potential opportunities created by market corrections rather than being misled by short-term volatility, as the attributes of gold as a currency may be reawakening in the context of global debt expansion [3]

Core Viewpoint - After a significant increase in gold prices, recent events such as the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's have reignited interest in gold as a potential safe-haven asset, despite short-term volatility in prices [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating and Economic Indicators - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating a loss of the highest rating from all three major rating agencies, primarily due to concerns over rising fiscal deficits and debt levels [1][2]. - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $1.1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for 22% of federal revenue [1][2]. - The Congressional Budget Office warned of potential debt default if the debt ceiling is not raised, which could lead to increased refinancing costs for the federal government [2]. Group 2: Impact on Gold and Currency Markets - The downgrade by Moody's is expected to weaken the dollar's credit system, leading to a potential shift in investor preferences towards gold and other currencies as safer assets [3][4]. - Despite rising U.S. Treasury yields, gold prices have surged, indicating a shift in gold's monetary attributes and a divergence from traditional correlations with bond yields [3][4]. - Global central banks are increasing gold purchases, with a net acquisition of 1,044.6 tons in 2024, reflecting a trend of moving away from dollar-denominated assets [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold - The path for gold to regain its status as a dominant asset is expected to be gradual, influenced by ongoing geopolitical risks and economic conditions [5][6]. - Factors such as persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for U.S. fiscal policies to lead to further monetary expansion are likely to support gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [5][6]. - Prominent investors, like Ray Dalio, emphasize the importance of holding gold in light of unsustainable U.S. debt levels, suggesting that the transition to gold as a currency alternative is still in its early stages [6].

特朗普中东之行收获颇丰，与沙特、卡塔尔达成的巨额经济协议持续发酵。周三(5月14日)与卡塔尔签署的合作框架下，双方达成至少1.2万亿美元的经济往 来承诺，并宣布总额超2435亿美元的具体交易清单，涵盖能源、基建、科技等多领域合作。受此提振，美国科技股延续强势表现，纳斯达克指数过去六个交 易日五次收涨，成功重返19000点整数关口上方，半导体与云计算板块领涨市场。 资本流向变化引发固定收益市场剧烈波动。各期限美债收益率全线攀升，10年期美债收益率突破4.5%关键心理位，30年期长债收益率更是逼近5%整数关 口，创2007年以来新高。这种收益率曲线陡峭化走势背后，折射出市场对美国财政可持续性的深层忧虑。值得关注的是，作为全球资产定价基准的10年期美 债收益率，其构成要素正发生结构性变化——短期利率预期与风险溢价呈现双升态势。短期利率方面，尽管美联储维持利率不变，但市场已将首次降息时点 预期从6月推迟至年底，高盛最新预测更指出，联储可能以"政策正常化"名义在四季度启动降息周期，这与此前为应对经济衰退而紧急降息的预期形成鲜明 对比。 美国主权信用风险指标出现异常波动。以信用违约互换(CDS)衡量的5年期美国国债违约保 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand and reducing supply, with a focus on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [2][4]. - The report highlights an increase in daily molten iron production, with a rise of 4.4 thousand tons to 244.4 thousand tons, indicating a positive trend in production capacity utilization [12][18]. - Inventory levels are decreasing, with total steel inventory down 3.2% week-on-week, suggesting a tightening supply situation [24][25]. - Apparent consumption of steel has slightly declined, with rebar consumption showing a decrease of 5.1% week-on-week [39][47]. - Steel prices are showing signs of strength, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index increasing by 0.7% week-on-week, indicating improved profit margins for steel producers [66][67]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily molten iron production has increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.6% for blast furnaces, up 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [18][24]. - The report anticipates a reduction in crude steel production as part of ongoing supply-side reforms [4][13]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has decreased by 3.2% week-on-week, with significant reductions in both social and factory inventories [24][25]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has decreased by 2.4% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down 5.1% [39][47]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have slightly decreased, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $99.2 per ton, down 0.7% week-on-week [55][67]. Prices and Profits - Steel prices have strengthened, with the report indicating improved profit margins for steel producers due to rising prices and reduced costs [66][67].

新华社北京4月23日电 经济知识问答｜为什么市场抛售会推高美债收益率 新华社记者宿亮 曹筱凡 2024财年，美国政府的利息支出已超过1万亿美元，占GDP约4%，占全年财政收入比例超过22%，也就 是说政府收入近四分之一要拿去付利息。这种背景下，美国政府信用动摇导致票面利率不断提高，会继 续推高美国财政负担。 当美国政府信用动摇时，美国联邦储备委员会作为美债的"最后保险人"会出资增持美债，相当于向市场 增发美元，这实际上就是"财政赤字货币化"。 债券价格和收益率的关系涉及几个概念：发行价、到期价、市场价、票面利率。 根据圣路易斯联储银行的数据，截至2024年第四季度，美联储持有的美国政府债务总额为4.6万亿美 元。这笔钱是美联储和美国联邦政府通过左手倒右手"制造"出来的现金。从2019年开始，美联储持有的 美债规模显著增长，显示近年来美联储不得不增发更多货币才能稳定美债收益率，由此不断削弱美元信 用。（完） 举例来说，一张债券发行价为100美元，到期价为105美元，那么票面利率就是5%。不过，这个5%的票 面利率并不等于收益率，因为债券可以上市交易，在到期前根据供求关系涨价、降价。交易过程中，如 果购买者以10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a better long-term investment compared to holding US dollars, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [2][3][15]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal measures such as issuing debt, which leads to central banks purchasing government bonds and consequently results in monetary expansion [6][9]. - The US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has resulted in significant debt burdens, with over 60% of its total assets being US Treasury bonds [7][9]. - The general trend of currency devaluation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating by over 90% since the Bretton Woods system collapsed [11][15]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation has increased, particularly as central banks have been accumulating gold due to concerns over the US dollar's credibility [23][25]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by approximately 12.76 tons in March 2025, continuing a trend of accumulation that has seen a total increase of about 56.93 tons since 2024 [25][26]. - Historical data shows that gold prices have experienced significant increases during periods of economic uncertainty, with a notable rise of nearly 30% in the first four months of 2025 [32]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin, while often touted as a potential replacement for gold, has shown extreme volatility, with prices fluctuating from $742 in November 2016 to a peak of $69,000 in November 2021, highlighting its instability as a currency [17][18]. - Unlike gold, which has a long-standing history as a stable store of value, Bitcoin lacks the same level of stability and is viewed more as a speculative asset [18][20]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article suggests that the world is entering a phase of low growth and high volatility, where gold serves as an appropriate investment due to its properties of value preservation and risk mitigation [21][22]. - The ongoing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate the demand for gold as a safe haven asset [22][32].

2016年4月初，我刚开设微信公众号不久，便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多，人民币则经历了从 2005-14年的九年升值之后开始贬值，故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗？我对 于一致预期通常都持怀疑态度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单：各国为了应对经 济不振的难题，基本采取了超发货币的对策，美国也不例外，即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩，谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白，又奋 笔疾书，写了 《再论换美元不如买黄金》 ，以为可以平息争论，谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 ：李总，历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊，如何确定目前熊市已经走完？还有一个数据是，实物 投资金需求量和金价走势拟合度较高，一季度金价大涨，但实物投资金需求改善不大，那是否预示着金价 上涨是不可持续的？ 留言 2 ：黄金只有消费属性，与货币没有关系了，只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么？ 留言 3 ：为何巴菲特不买黄金？因为黄金不能下崽，没有利息，持有它只有成本，其盈利全靠高价卖给别 人。美国经济已经复苏，再来一个科技革命，黄金会休息十年。 留言 4 ： ...

（ 转 载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 2016 年 4 月初，我刚开设微信公众号不久，便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多，人民币则经历了从2005-14年的 九年升值之后开始贬值，故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗？我对于一致预期通常都持怀疑态 度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单：各国为了应对经济不振的难题，基本采取了超发货币的对 策，美国也不例外，即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩，谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白，又奋笔疾书，写了 《 再论换美元不如买黄金 》，以为可以平息争论，谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 ：李总，历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊，如何确定目前熊市已经走完？还有一个数据是，实物投资金需求量和金价走势拟合 度较，一季度金价大涨，但实物投资金需求改善不大，那是否预示着金价上涨是不可持续的？ 留言 2 ：黄金只有消费属性，与货币没有关系了，只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么？ 留言 3 ：为何巴菲特不买黄金？因为黄金不能下崽，没有利息，持有它只有成本，其盈利全靠高价卖给别人。美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a more reliable long-term investment compared to the US dollar, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal debt issuance and central bank bond purchases, leading to monetary expansion [3][4]. - The US Federal Reserve holds over 60% of its total assets in US Treasury bonds, while Japan's central bank holds an even larger proportion, indicating significant reliance on debt to manage economic imbalances [4]. - The general trend of currency depreciation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating over 90% since the Bretton Woods system ended [7][10]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with increasing demand for gold as a natural monetary asset due to concerns over paper currency inflation [10][18]. - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves significantly, with China's reserves rising from 2,235.40 tons at the beginning of 2024 to 2,279.57 tons by the end of the year, reflecting a trend of accumulating gold as a safeguard against economic uncertainty [19][20]. - The price of gold has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of nearly 30% in just four months, driven by fears regarding the stability of the US dollar and rising debt levels [22][23]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin is characterized by extreme volatility, making it less stable as a currency compared to gold, which has maintained its monetary properties for over three millennia [12][13]. - The historical performance of gold shows significant long-term appreciation, contrasting with Bitcoin's erratic price movements, which raises questions about its viability as a stable currency [12][23]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights a trend of low growth and high volatility in the global economy, suggesting that gold is an appropriate investment during such turbulent times [17][18]. - The increasing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate risks, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [18][23].