Core Viewpoint - Precious metal futures experienced a significant drop, with silver, palladium, and platinum seeing sharp declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][11]. Price Movements - On October 17, precious metal futures continued to decline, with spot silver dropping over 6%, marking its largest decline in six months. Spot gold, after reaching a historical high, suddenly fell below $4200 per ounce [3]. - COMEX gold closed at $4267.90, down $36.70 (-0.85%); COMEX silver closed at $50.63, down $2.67 (-5.01%); NYMEX platinum closed at $1629.80, down $125.30 (-7.14%); NYMEX palladium fell over 9% to $1516 [4][7][9]. Market Sentiment - The decline in precious metals is attributed to easing concerns over geopolitical tensions, trade issues, and the quality of U.S. credit, which has reduced the demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [11]. - HSBC's recent report indicates that gold remains supported by strong investor sentiment and ongoing diversification by official institutions, predicting a continuation of upward trends in gold prices until 2026. However, it warns that fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than expected could hinder gold's upward trajectory [11].

周五美盘交易时段，现货黄金在创下历史新高后大幅回落，跌破4200美元/盎司关口，日内大跌近130美元，跌幅达3%；现货白银日内大跌逾6%， 主要受美元走强及美国总统特朗普有关贸易局势的表态影响。 渣打银行全球大宗商品研究主管Suki Cooper表示："我们预计2026年黄金价格将达到每盎司4488美元，并认为结构性因素仍可能推动价格进一步上 行。" 早盘时段，金价曾有望录得自2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭、引发全球金融危机以来的最大单周涨幅。 汇丰银行最新将其2025年黄金均价预测上调100美元至每盎司3455美元，并预计2026年金价将升至每盎司5000美元。 独立金属交易员Tai Wong表示："自特朗普最初宣布征收100%关税后，其最新表态趋于缓和，这让市场对贵金属的避险需求有所降温。" Vital Knowledge分析师Adam Crisafulli在报告中指出："我们认为银行业并不存在系统性信贷问题，目前的情况更多源自个别事件，而整体信贷质量 实际上比预期更好。" 黄金作为传统避险资产，今年以来已累计上涨逾62%，主要受到地缘政治紧张局势、各国央行的持续购金、资金从美元转向黄金以及黄金ETF强劲 流 ...

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with gold dropping over 2% at one point and currently down 1.64% to $4254.69 per ounce, while silver fell 5.26% to $50.493 per ounce [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice regarding the volatile conditions in the precious metals market, urging relevant parties to take measures for risk prevention and to maintain market stability [3] - Bitcoin has fallen below $107,000, with market conditions leading to record levels of forced liquidations, indicating ongoing challenges for the cryptocurrency to achieve a sustained rebound [3] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices showed weak performance, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices declining, while the Dow Jones remained flat [4] - Discussions are underway for a potential meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump, with preparations for a summit in Budapest being actively pursued [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trade situation has a negative impact on the market sentiment. A - share major indices and stock index futures have declined, while treasury bond futures have strengthened. Commodity indices are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. - The Fed's dovish tone, tariff tensions, and the US government shutdown have weakened the US dollar. The euro remains strong, and the yen is mainly boosted by the weakening of the US dollar [6][10]. - The rise in international gold prices has driven up the core CPI, and the Chinese government's subsidy funds are expected to boost consumption. The trade situation is uncertain due to Trump's actions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.22%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures fell 2.35%. A - share major indices fell collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were weaker. The market was affected by the trade situation, and the allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.06%, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.31%. Treasury bond futures strengthened, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind commodity index rose 6.93%, and the China Securities commodity futures price index rose 0.49%. Except for gold, other commodities performed poorly, and the allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.89%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract rose 0.86%. The US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes stabilizing market expectations; the Chinese government imposes special port fees on US ships; the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [14]. - **International News**: The US lowers EU auto tariffs to 15%; Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year; the IMF warns that global public debt will reach a new high by 2029 and raises the world economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, M1 growth rate was 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 growth rate was 8.4% year - on - year [17]. - **US**: The October NAHB housing market index was 37 [17]. - **EU**: The August industrial output monthly rate in the eurozone was - 1.2% [17]. - **UK**: The August three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.3%, and the August manufacturing output monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - **Germany**: The September CPI monthly rate was 0.2% [17]. - **France**: The September CPI monthly rate was - 1% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **October 20**: China's one - year loan prime rate, September social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, September industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, and Germany's September PPI monthly rate [81]. - **October 22**: Japan's September commodity export year - on - year, UK's September CPI monthly rate, and September retail price index monthly rate [81]. - **October 23**: US initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 and the eurozone's October consumer confidence index preliminary value [81]. - **October 24**: Japan's September core CPI year - on - year, UK's September seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate, France's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, and US September unadjusted CPI and core CPI year - on - year [81].

格隆汇10月17日｜KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特雷表示，对而言4500美元的目标价可能比预期 更早到来，但这在很大程度上可能取决于贸易局势和政府关门担忧情绪在市场萦绕多久。与此同时，美 联储理事沃勒出于对劳动力市场的担忧，表态支持再次降息。投资者预计美联储在10月会议上将降息25 个基点，并在12月再次降息。此外，沃特雷认为，美国地区性银行信贷担忧的突然加剧，给了交易员又 一个买入黄金的理由。在地缘政治紧张局势、激进的降息预期、央行购金、去美元化以及ETF资金强劲 流入的推动下，黄金年内迄今已上涨超过65%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

美东时间周四，美股三大股指集体收跌，区域银行贷款问题令投资者感到不安，而此前贸易紧张局势已使市场情绪承压。 Zions银行当天暴跌13%，此前该区域性银行披露其加州部门两笔贷款出现意外亏损。 这一消息加剧了市场对银行体系潜在信贷压力的担 忧，尤其是在经济前景不明、利率仍处高位的背景下。 Western Alliance下跌10.8%，该行表示已对一名借款人提起欺诈诉讼。自9月美国汽车零部件供应商First Brands和汽车经销商Tricolor倒 闭以来，市场对商业贷款风险的紧张情绪持续发酵。 投资者也密切关注贸易局势的最新进展。美国银行投资策略师Tom Hainlin评论称："全球贸易局势的不确定性加剧，对经济和市场的潜在影 响，显然正在加重市场的不稳定性。" 得益于对人工智能的乐观情绪以及美联储降息预期，美股今年已屡创新高。本周多家美国大型银行公布的稳健财报，显示出经济在官方宏观 数据因政府停摆而推迟发布的情况下仍保持韧性。 数据显示，分析师平均预计标普500成份股公司三季度整体盈利将同比增长9.2%，高于两周前8.8%的预测。 市场目前对与信贷相关的亏损极为敏感，投资者对这些区域银行的表态感到不安，因 ...

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices reached a historic high for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by escalating trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, leading investors to flock to this safe-haven asset. The market's increasing bets on interest rate cuts further fueled the upward trend [1]. Group 1 - Spot gold prices touched a record high of $4,256.21 per ounce during trading [1]. - OANDA analyst Zain Vawda indicated that gold's trajectory will depend on the interest rate cut outlook leading into 2026 and the developments in trade tensions, which could catalyze gold prices to surpass $5,000 per ounce [1]. - Vawda noted that short-term pullbacks in gold prices may be temporary, as bullish investors often re-enter the market during such corrections [1].

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 10月15日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 960.34 | 2.09% | 420246 | 230686 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 美联储理事鲍曼：预计年底前还有两次降息，即将公布新压力测试提案。 欧央行行长拉加德：永远都不会说欧洲央行已经完成降息。 中国商务部发言人就美对华造船等行业301调查限制措施落地答记者问：中方对此强烈不满，坚决反 对；中国公布，对韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司采取反制措施；央视玉渊谭天：商务部5月以来 四次表态：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。 【机构观点】 东海期货：贸易局势与降息预期共振，贵金属偏强运行 贵金属市场周二整体继续上行，沪金主力合约收至938.98/克，上涨2.7%；沪银主力合约收至11533元/千 克，上涨2.64%。受贸易局势不确定性和美联储降息预期升温的影响，贵金属继续走强，延续上行趋 势，但是短期波动加剧。短期贵金属偏强运行，中长期向上格局未改，操作方面，短期多头继续持有或 逢高减仓，中长 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility on October 16, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropping 17 points, while the Nasdaq gained nearly 150 points, indicating mixed market sentiment [1][3] - Early trading saw the DJIA rise over 400 points, but by the afternoon, it reversed course, reflecting uncertainty among traders [3] Economic Indicators - Market participants are awaiting two key factors: corporate earnings reports and updates on U.S.-China trade relations, as recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs have heightened concerns [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a halt in key economic data releases, contributing to cautious trading behavior [3] Corporate Earnings - Notable earnings reports from major banks like Bank of America and Morgan Stanley exceeded expectations, suggesting that the underlying economic conditions may be stronger than perceived [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the possibility of interest rate cuts remains open, and the process of balance sheet reduction may soon conclude, providing some reassurance to the market [3] Long-term Outlook - The focus for long-term investors should be on trade signals, the stability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and the sustainability of corporate earnings, as these factors will significantly influence market direction [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown a strong upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching historical highs due to escalating trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Monday morning, spot gold prices surged to $4,059.30 per ounce, marking a historical peak [3]. - The upward trend continued, with prices breaking through the $4,070 per ounce mark in the afternoon [4]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing prices exceed 1,190 yuan per gram [5]. Group 2: Driving Forces - Trade tensions have intensified, with the U.S. announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and implementing key software export controls, leading to increased global market risk aversion [6]. - There is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, with a 96% probability for the October cut, putting further pressure on the dollar and supporting gold prices [6]. - Central bank gold purchases continue, with China's gold reserves rising for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, and global central banks net purchasing 166 tons of gold in Q2, providing a "safety cushion" for gold prices [6]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The bullish trend remains intact, with any pullback seen as a buying opportunity [6]. - Key support levels to watch include $4,020 (short-term buying point) and $4,000 (psychological strong support), with a warning of deeper corrections if prices fall below $3,965 [7]. - Suggested trading strategy includes entering long positions in the $4,020-$4,030 range for aggressive traders, while conservative traders should wait for the $4,010-$4,000 range, with stop-loss set below $3,980 [8]. The short-term target is $4,070-$4,080, with potential to hold for $4,200 if broken [8].