Gold - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected increase of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the previous value of 4.2% and the expected 4.3%, which is bearish for gold [1] - Following the non-farm report, the probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 23.8% to 5.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 94.8% [1] - Technically, gold experienced a sharp decline, touching a low of $3,311, and if it surpasses $3,344 today, it may continue its upward trend, potentially reaching $3,480 next week [1] Oil - President Trump announced a 20%-30% tariff increase on goods exported to the U.S. from over ten countries, indicating ongoing trade tensions that could impact the market [2] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in oil production by 414,000 barrels per day starting in August, which may heighten concerns about oversupply and negatively affect oil prices [2] Seasonal Demand - The period from the last week of May to September 1 marks the summer travel season in the U.S., which typically boosts oil demand [3] - Despite OPEC+ increasing oil production, the current summer travel season is expected to drive strong oil demand, creating a mix of bullish and bearish factors [3] - Technically, oil has shown a fluctuating performance, with a resistance level at $67.50 and support at $65.80 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded to around 40,000 and has been maintaining a range-bound movement, indicating a correction since the rise on June 23 [4] - Short-term resistance is noted at 40,000, while a drop below 39,400 could lead to a target near 39,000 [4] Copper - Copper prices have been on an upward trend since April 9, recovering all losses from early April, indicating strong bullish momentum [5] - A recent decline from the $5.13 level has led to a focus on the support level at $4.98, with a potential deeper correction if this support is breached [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,346, having risen 0.5% on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of gains, primarily driven by unexpectedly weak U.S. ADP employment data, which has heightened expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs in June, the first net decline since early 2023, contrasting sharply with the revised increase of 29,000 jobs in May, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market [1][3] - The market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has intensified, with the likelihood of a July cut rising from 20% to 23% following the data release, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September nearing 100% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy landscape is adding complexity to the gold market, with a proposed tax and spending bill expected to increase debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about deficit spending and inflation [3] - Global trade dynamics are also influencing gold price volatility, as a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam has alleviated some trade tension, contributing to a rise in investor risk appetite [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have shown signs of stabilization after a recent low of $3,247, forming a potential bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a possible challenge of resistance levels at $3,383 and above [5] - In the short-term, following a rebound from the $3,247 low, bullish momentum is expanding, with prices reaching a high of $3,365 before experiencing slight pullbacks, indicating ongoing upward potential [6] - Traders are advised to monitor key support levels around $3,337 and $3,316 for potential long positions, while resistance is noted at $3,365 and $3,383 [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones up 1%, S&P 500 up 0.52%, and Nasdaq up 0.52%. The Dow gained 3.82% for the week, S&P 500 gained 3.44%, and Nasdaq gained 4.25% [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached all-time highs [2] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Google and Amazon up over 2%, Nvidia and Meta up over 1%, while Tesla and Microsoft saw slight declines [2] - Nike experienced a significant increase, rising over 15%, marking its largest single-day gain in four years [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.22%, with a weekly gain of 3.49%. However, individual Chinese stocks showed mixed results [2] - Notable declines included Xiaopeng Motors down over 6% and Li Auto down over 1%, while Luckin Coffee rose over 3% [2] Trade Developments - Market attention was drawn to trade developments, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicating that the Trump administration is expected to reach agreements with ten major trading partners soon [2] - Lutnick mentioned that countries would be categorized appropriately by July 9, but there is a possibility of extending deadlines for further negotiations [2] Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell, with COMEX gold futures down 1.85% to $3286.1 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 2.92% [3] - COMEX silver futures decreased by 2.06%, settling at $36.17 per ounce, with a slight weekly gain of 0.41% [3] - International crude oil futures saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures up 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, but the weekly decline was 12% [3] - Brent crude oil futures rose 0.06% to $67.77 per barrel, also reflecting a weekly drop of 12% [3]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a decline on June 19, opening at $3,392.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,395.71, a low of $3,347.48, and closing at $3,369.18 [1] News Highlights - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK's, with Europe increasingly willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Canada will adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 [3] Geopolitical Situation - Reports indicate that President Trump is cautious about bombing Iran, partly due to concerns that a regime change could lead to a situation similar to Libya. The decision on whether to participate in Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities has been postponed for two weeks [4] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 947.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 91.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 36.1%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 58.9% and 50 basis points at 5.0% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop to a low of $3,347 during the trading day. The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with short-term resistance levels identified [7] - The trading strategy suggests a cautious approach, maintaining a bearish outlook for short-term trading [8]

日本央行会议纪要：一位成员表示，日本央行别无选择，只能静观其变，等待美国贸易局势稳定后再作 决策。 ...

关税疑云未散，铜价小幅调整 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价高位回落，主因全球关税疑云未散，美国政府虽 然愿意延长7月8日的最后期限，但将对伙伴国发出信函说 明具体的贸易协议条款，恐遭伙伴国反制，贸易局势不确 定性仍然较大；此外，中美二轮经贸谈判达成战略性框架 协议的乐观预期也在逐步消化，鲍威尔及美联储官员均表 示当前的货币政策是经济不确定性背景下的最优方案，而 就业市场近期的疲态也体现了美国经济的滞涨风险，海外 宏观对铜价有承压作用。基本面来看，卡莫阿重启但下调 产量预期近3成，全球显性库存持续下降，洋山铜仓单溢 价高企，国内库存低位震荡，盘面近月B结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铜周报 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号： ...

跟踪贸易局势发展，市场焦点是否转移，黄金如何抓转换？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

Energy - Iraq's SOMO announced that the official selling price of Basrah medium crude oil for July shipments to Asia will be $0.30 per barrel above the average price of Oman/Dubai crude [1] - A survey indicated that five OPEC+ member countries increased oil production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below the committed increase of 310,000 barrels per day [1] - Due to refinery shutdowns, fuel imports in California reached their highest level in four years [1] - The Israeli military stated that its naval vessels attacked Houthi targets in Yemen's Hodeidah port [1] Precious Metals and Mining - Chile's central bank reported that copper export revenue fell to $4.48 billion in May [2] Agriculture - On June 10, the first meeting of the China-U.S. trade negotiation mechanism will continue [3] - Japanese trade negotiators will visit the U.S. and Canada from June 13 to 18 for negotiations [3] - The U.S. Department of Justice requested the court to extend the stay on the enforcement of the ruling invalidating Trump's tariffs [3] Other - An Iranian parliamentary spokesperson indicated that if the International Atomic Energy Agency pressures Iran and triggers mechanisms, Iran plans to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty [4] - Iran's foreign ministry stated that the U.S. proposal regarding the nuclear agreement is "unacceptable" [4] Additional Information - South Korean egg prices have reached a four-year high [5] - The Japanese government will release an additional 200,000 tons of reserve rice [5] - Malaysia's MPOB reported that palm oil production in May was 1,771,621 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05% [5] - Local growers and officials indicated that India is expected to have a surplus of sugar for two consecutive years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that overseas, the first round of China - US economic and trade consultations was held in London, and the inflation expectation in the US decreased for the first time this year. In China, the CPI was negative for four consecutive months, the PPI decline widened, the export and import situation was not optimistic, and the economy was stable in the first half of the year but needed to pay attention to policy and negotiation progress [2][3]. - In the precious metals market, silver started a catch - up rally, with gold prices remaining high and volatile, and silver prices showing strong performance due to factors such as capital preference and relatively low prices [4][5]. - For copper, the start of China - US economic and trade consultations led to a relatively strong copper price, but the spot market trading was cold [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index and the reduction of ingot production, but were also restricted by consumption off - season concerns and macro risks, and were expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. - Alumina was under pressure due to the expected increase in supply from production resumption, but the cost support limited the downward space [10][11]. - Zinc prices were expected to be weak due to factors such as refinery resumption, weakening demand, and increasing inventory [12]. - Lead prices were expected to fluctuate due to factors such as production reduction, inventory decline, and weak demand [13]. - Tin prices were expected to fluctuate after a rebound due to factors such as the suspension of tin ore transportation from Myanmar, reduced production, and weakening downstream purchasing [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level due to poor demand growth and inventory accumulation [16]. - Nickel prices had limited downward space due to upstream supply contraction, but were affected by macro - level disturbances [17]. - Crude oil prices were expected to have a long - term downward trend, and short - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities due to supply pressure and geopolitical factors [18]. - Steel prices were expected to be under pressure due to weak supply and demand, and the entry of demand into the off - season [19]. - Iron ore prices were expected to be weak due to increased supply and weakening demand [20][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the US soybean's good growth rate, positive signals from China - US negotiations, and cost support [22][23]. - Palm oil prices were expected to fluctuate, waiting for the release of the MPOB report [24][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The trading data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. were presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [27]. 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - The data of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. on June 9th and June 6th were compared, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory, and other indicators [27][30][32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trade situation affects demand expectations, and the energy and chemical sector is generally in a weak and volatile state. Macro data shows a weakening economic pattern, and chemical demand is unlikely to perform strongly, with futures prices expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Short - term macro - level positives boost oil prices, but terminal demand is weak. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical factors lead to oil price fluctuations [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [5] Asphalt - **View**: The rise in crude oil drives up the asphalt futures price. However, factors such as OPEC+ production increase, sufficient domestic raw material supply, and high asphalt cracking spread suggest that the current price is overvalued [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price rises following crude oil. But with the increase in heavy - oil supply and the weakening of demand drivers, the supply - demand situation is unfavorable [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following crude oil. It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low valuation [6] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [6] LPG - **View**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG is limited. Although the spot price has stabilized, the fundamental supply is loose, and the demand is weak [6][7] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [7] PX - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PX prices decline. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost, and the supply - demand pattern is in a state of game [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [8] PTA - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PTA prices decline. PTA is in a state of inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production cuts [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: High - level volatile in the single - side market [8] Benzene Ethylene - **View**: The current situation is still poor, and benzene ethylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile state. Although the cost side has improved, supply is increasing, and demand is average [8][9] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [9] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: There is an expected reduction in supply, and the near - end is strong. If US ethane exports are restricted, EG supply will decrease, and current demand is acceptable [10] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [10] Short - Fiber - **View**: Terminal demand is low, and it is difficult to expand the processing fee. Terminal demand is the main negative factor, and the short - fiber may not be stronger than raw materials [10][11] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [11] Bottle Chip - **View**: The processing fee is further compressed, and there are no highlights in the situation. The supply pressure is large, and the price follows the raw materials [13] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [13] Methanol - **View**: The port continues to accumulate inventory, and methanol fluctuates. Supply is relatively loose, port inventory is increasing, and the support from downstream olefins is limited [16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [16] Urea - **View**: The market is weak, waiting for the callback opportunity when agricultural demand is released. Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weakening [14][16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [16] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The cost side has some support, but the supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [19] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [19] PP - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. Similar to LLDPE, the cost side has support, but supply is increasing, and demand is average [20][21] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [21] PVC - **View**: Short - term sentiment warms up, and PVC has a weak rebound. Although the market sentiment has improved, the long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, weak demand, and other factors [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [22] Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong current situation but weak expectations, mainly short - selling on rallies. Although the current supply is tight, the supply expectation for the 09 contract is pessimistic [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [22] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) is 5 with a change of 0, WTI (M1 - M2) is 0.92 with a change of - 0.04, etc. [23] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 173 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 93 with a change of 10 [25] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content