新华社柏林8月7日电（记者 车云龙 张毅荣）德国联邦统计局7日公布的数据显示，受中国和欧盟市 场强劲需求推动，德国6月出口同比增长2.4%，环比增长0.8%，结束此前连续两个月下滑趋势。 数据显示，经季节和工作日调整后，6月德国出口总额为1305亿欧元，进口总额为1156亿欧元。当 月德国对欧盟成员国出口环比增长2.4%，对欧盟以外国家出口下降1.2%，其中对中国出口增长1.1%。 数据显示，受美国加征关税等因素影响，6月德国对美出口环比下降2.1%，为连续第三个月下降； 同比降幅达8.4%。今年上半年，德国对美出口同比下降3.1%。 德国批发和外贸协会主席迪尔克·扬杜拉当天发表声明说，美国反复无常的贸易政策已对德国对外 贸易造成严重影响，不确定性持续上升，直接带来出口损失。越来越多德国企业正在应对当前形势，积 极寻找替代市场。他同时呼吁欧盟与其他贸易伙伴达成更多自由贸易协定，并对现有协定进行改革。 ...

中新网8月7日电 综合德媒报道，德国工商总会6日发布的一项调查显示，在欧盟和美国达成初步贸易协 议后，大多数德国公司预计跨大西洋贸易将遭受更多负面影响。 调查指出，贸易政策的不确定性也对德国企业的全球市场战略产生了明显影响。54%的受访企业表示， 他们希望减少与美国的交易。26%的企业正在减少对美国的投资或暂停投资。 调查显示，约72%的德国受访企业已经感受到美国现行贸易政策较为显著的负面影响。尤其是与美国有 直接业务联系的企业中，有九成已感受到不利影响。 调查还显示，企业最主要的困扰是贸易政策充满不确定性，80%的企业把担心新的关税措施列为核心问 题，72%的企业则认为美国对欧盟征收的关税显著增加了经营负担。 梅尔尼科夫还表示，美欧贸易协议或许具有政治必要性，但对德国众多企业来说，"它仍是一剂苦药"。 它带来的是额外负担而非减负：更高的关税、更多的官僚主义，以及不断下降的竞争力。" 根据该调查，美国业务中的关税成本上升不仅影响德国企业。在报告关税成本应对方式发生变化的企业 中，84%表示会将至少一部分额外成本转嫁给美国的客户。由此，关税将进一步加剧美国的通胀压力。 德国工商总会主席梅尔尼科夫警告称，"美国的 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]

伯克希尔在财报中称， 关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成 威胁，警告称，"几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩"。 财报还显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦连续第11个季度净卖出股票，第二季度未进行股票回购，截至 二季度末 前五大持仓分别为美国运通、苹果、美国银行、可口可乐和雪佛龙。 伯克希尔Q2营业利润同比下降3.8%，净利润暴跌59%，现金储备为3440亿美元接近历史高位，对特 朗普政府实施的严厉关税政策发出强烈警告。 8月2日，伯克希尔二季度交出了一份喜忧参半的成绩单。营业利润111.6亿美元较去年同期下降 3.8%，虽然降幅有限，但这一数字反映出公司核心业务面临的结构性压力。更值得注意的是，净利润 123.7亿美元同比暴跌59%，这一巨幅下滑很大程度上受到投资组合估值变化的拖累。 伯克希尔在财报中称，关税等国际贸易政策紧张局势在2025年上半年加速发展，对其多元化业务构成 威胁，警告称，" 几乎所有经营业务以及股票投资都可能面临不利后果，这可能显著影响未来业绩 "。 受贸易政策影响，旗下服装和玩具品牌收入出现不同程度下滑。 尽管股价较历史高点下 ...

瑞士在与美国贸易协议谈判的最后时刻遭遇戏剧性逆转，特朗普亲自推翻了此前已获美方财长和贸易代表认可的协议框架，最终对瑞士商品征收39%的 关税。 8月2日，据媒体报道，瑞士当地时间周四晚间，瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔（Karin Keller-Sutter）与特朗普通话时发现，双方对贸易关系公平性的看法 存在巨大分歧。在距离新关税生效仅剩10小时的关键时刻，特朗普专注于近400亿美元的商品贸易逆差，要求瑞士提出更多让步。 据知情人士透露，当凯勒-祖特尔未能提供改变贸易平衡的新方案后，愤怒的特朗普几乎是随意选定了对瑞士征收39%的关税税率。据央视新闻，当地 时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的"对等关税"税率，其中瑞士的关税税率为39%。 分析指出，此次谈判破裂令瑞士震惊，凸显了特朗普贸易政策的不确定性，即使是已获技术层面认可的协议也可能在最后时刻被总统个人推翻。 据悉，美国和瑞士双方代表团已就协议框架进行了超过一个月的谈判，瑞士政府7月4日已正式批准该框架，且美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）和 贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）都已同意草案内容。 最后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan highlights that uncertainties arising from trade policies and their developments continue to have a significant impact on the economic and price outlook [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the high level of uncertainty related to trade policies [1]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest World Economic Outlook, indicating that the global economy maintains a fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainties [1] - Compared to the April forecast, the IMF has slightly upgraded the global growth outlook [2] Growth Projections - The global economic growth is expected to reach 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the April forecast, but lower than the 3.3% in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% [3] - The upgrade in the 2025 forecast is broad-based, attributed to strong preemptive actions in international trade, lower global effective tariff rates, and improved global financial conditions [3] Advanced Economies - For advanced economies, growth is projected at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [4] - In the United States, the growth rate is expected to be 1.9% in 2025, up by 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast, with a slight increase to 2.0% in 2026 [4] - The Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with the 2025 forecast raised by 0.2 percentage points mainly due to strong GDP growth in Ireland [4] Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026 [5] - China's growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and significant reductions in US-China tariffs [5] - India's growth is projected at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts due to a more favorable external environment [6] Regional Growth Expectations - The Middle East and Central Asia are expected to see growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 [7] - Sub-Saharan Africa's growth is projected at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026 [8] - Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see a decline to 2.2% in 2025, with a recovery to 2.4% in 2026 [9] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is expected to continue declining, with an overall rate projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [12] - The IMF has adjusted the global trade volume forecast upward by 0.9 percentage points for 2025, while lowering the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points [11] Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Ukraine, may pose new supply shocks to the global economy, potentially leading to increased commodity prices and inflationary pressures [14]

黄金的大周期来看，大趋势还是多头不变，这波下跌关注3300.3285.如果在今天延续弱势，可能会去3285低点，也就是说，现在黄金下方还有空间，在没有 明确筑底的表现下，今天就看3285低点是否能到。当然，如果今天亚欧盘的反弹力度够大，反弹站稳在4小时周期单边均线3330压制上方，这波下跌也有可 能在3300附近筑底，所以，今天还是维持周初的看法，继续看低位震荡，关注反弹力度，亚欧盘看涨至3330得失，不破可短线获利出局，破位则再看美盘变 化，上方再关注3345-50.单看收线，今天大概率反弹，所以操作上倾向低多为主。本周数据比较多，可能大行情会集中在后半周。行情只有上破昨天3345.这 波回落才能结束。假如行情意外跌破3301.要防止虚破，接近3280还是倾向多。综合来看，黄金今日短线操作思路上贺博生建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空 为辅，上方短期重点关注3345-3355一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3310-3300一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：油价在地缘政治风险升温的背景下维持升势。由于美国总统特朗普近日强硬表态，要求俄罗斯在10至12天内结束与乌克兰的冲突，否则将 面临"次级制裁"，市 ...

28 July 2025 | 7:29PM BST GOAL Kickstart Goldilocks extends with further declines in trade policy uncertainty Last week, the Euro area composite flash PMI rose above expectations to 51.0. US durable goods orders declined by slightly less than consensus expectations. Markets continue to trade in a 'Goldilocks' regime, with our PC1 "Global growth" factor reaching the highest level since January (Exhibit 1) and the S&P 500 making new all-time highs. Historically, positive growth pricing regimes have tended to ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basis for the US dollar's correction has loosened due to the lack of new driving forces. The US dollar index is in a volatile and weak pattern, while the RMB exchange market continues to operate smoothly. The euro lacks internal driving force for its movement, and the Japanese yen strengthens due to increased global risk aversion [1][3][4] - Fundamentally, the economic expectation difference is neutral, the Sino - US interest rate spread is neutral, and the uncertainty of trade policies is neutral, with the marginal negative impact weakening [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis US Dollar against RMB - The US dollar index is under pressure this week. The preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, and Trump's tariff proposal has raised concerns about inflation and trade frictions. China's cross - border payments and receipts have reached a record high, and the foreign exchange market continues the net inflow pattern. The RMB's global payment share in June was 2.88%, and the LPR remains unchanged [1] Other Currencies - **Euro**: The economic recovery in the eurozone is slow, and the tariff negotiation process is sluggish. The preliminary values of the composite PMI and manufacturing PMI in July are 51 and 49.8 respectively, still in the contraction range. The European Central Bank maintains the interest rate unchanged and emphasizes "exceptional uncertainty" [3] - **Yen**: The US - Japan tariff crisis has eased. Japan's manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 48.8. After the two countries reached a tariff agreement, the yen strengthened due to increased risk - aversion demand [3] Strategy - **US Dollar against RMB**: It will maintain a short - term volatile and weak pattern within a range, as the US dollar index is under pressure and the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [4] - **Euro**: It will maintain a volatile pattern due to weak consumption in the eurozone and ongoing US - EU trade negotiation games [4] - **Yen**: It will maintain a relatively strong volatile pattern after the US - Japan trade agreement [4]