Core Insights - The UNCTAD report highlights that global trade policy uncertainty, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, poses significant risks to trade-dependent economies and hampers global economic growth [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is deemed more damaging than tariffs, as businesses can adapt to rising costs but struggle with unpredictable policy changes [1][4] Group 1: Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty - The report identifies the United States as a key example, noting that frequent adjustments to U.S. trade policies create significant unpredictability for global trade [2] - U.S. unilateral actions, such as tariffs and sanctions, have intensified global trade policy uncertainty and provoked retaliatory measures from other countries [2] - Developing and least developed countries are particularly vulnerable to U.S. trade policy uncertainty, lacking the capacity to respond effectively, which hinders their economic and social development [2] Group 2: Recommendations for Mitigating Uncertainty - The report calls for governments, businesses, and international organizations to collaborate in enhancing global trade resilience and stability [3][4] - Governments should base policy decisions on clear economic analysis and data, providing rationale and expected impacts to improve predictability for businesses and investors [3] - International organizations like UNCTAD and WTO should promote policy coordination among countries to avoid retaliatory measures and establish frameworks to address uncertainty [3] - Countries are encouraged to adhere to regional and multilateral trade agreements to minimize policy volatility and foster a stable trading environment [3] - Businesses should enhance supply chain flexibility by diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory, and adopting various transportation methods to mitigate operational disruptions during periods of uncertainty [3]

Core Viewpoint - Songyuan reported a decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with a comprehensive sales figure of 2,654 billion KRW, a 3.0% decrease compared to the same period last year, while the first half of 2025 saw a 2.2% increase in sales compared to 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Songyuan recorded a loss of 1.481 billion KRW, significantly lower than the profit of 10.575 billion KRW in the same quarter last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the profit was 3.376 billion KRW, down from 17.237 billion KRW in the previous year [1] Market Challenges - The company continues to face challenges from Q1 2025, including weak global demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing pressure on profit margins [1] - Macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical restrictions and regulatory changes have consistently impacted market demand [1] - Increased uncertainty in U.S. trade policies and currency fluctuations have intensified competition in key markets, particularly in Asia and Europe [1] Future Outlook - Songyuan anticipates a slowdown in overall economic growth, with continued pressure on profit margins due to oversupply, leading to demand potentially falling short of previous expectations [1] - The company plans to monitor global developments closely and believes it can address emerging challenges while providing reliable product supply to customers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the U.S. Joint Economic Committee warns that President Trump's trade policies could lead to a reduction of over 13% in U.S. manufacturing investment annually, totaling more than $490 billion in losses by 2029 [3][6]. Group 1: Impact on Employment and Investment - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest point in nearly a decade [3][6]. - Manufacturing construction spending has been on a downward trend since Trump's administration began, as companies are hesitant to make significant investments amid economic uncertainty [3][6]. - A survey indicated that manufacturing firms expected capital expenditures to grow by 5.2% in December 2024, but by May 2025, they anticipated a decline of 1.3% [6][9]. Group 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The report highlights that nearly 100 different tariff policy decisions made by the Trump administration since April have significantly increased economic uncertainty [6][7]. - Manufacturers view trade uncertainty as a primary concern, followed by rising input costs, which has led to a decrease in optimism regarding future investments [6][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is compared to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, suggesting that U.S. manufacturers face broader and potentially more severe consequences [9]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - Delayed investments not only hinder innovation but may also lead to job losses in factories, weakened supply chains, and reduced competitiveness against other countries [7][9]. - Even if all trade policies were resolved immediately, the recent turmoil could still negatively impact long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [9]. - The Joint Economic Committee estimates that the uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could result in an average annual investment reduction of 1%, leading to a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [9].

Core Insights - The report from the U.S. Joint Economic Committee warns that President Trump's trade policies may lead to a reduction of over 13% in U.S. manufacturing investment annually, totaling a loss of more than $490 billion by 2029 [1] - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest in nearly a decade [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has significantly dampened manufacturers' investment willingness, with expectations for capital expenditures declining [3][4] Manufacturing Job Losses - The U.S. manufacturing job count decreased by a total of 37,000 between May and July, with May's hiring reaching the lowest level since 2016 [3] - Manufacturers cite economic uncertainty as a primary reason for increased layoffs [3] Investment Trends - A survey indicated that manufacturers expect a 5.2% increase in capital expenditures for 2025, but anticipate a 1.3% decline by May 2025 [3] - The optimism among manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic peak, with trade uncertainty being the top concern [3] Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty - Manufacturing is particularly vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty, as decisions to expand production often involve large, irreversible investments [4] - Delayed investments can slow innovation, reduce factory jobs, weaken supply chains, and diminish competitiveness against other countries [4] Comparison with Brexit - The report compares the uncertainty from Trump's trade policies to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, noting that U.S. manufacturers face broader policy and economic consequences [5] - Even if all trade policies were finalized immediately, the recent turmoil could still harm long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [5] - The Joint Economic Committee estimates that uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could lead to an average annual investment reduction of 1%, resulting in a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [5]

Group 1 - The report warns that President Trump's trade policies may lead to a reduction in U.S. manufacturing investment by over 13% annually, totaling more than $490 billion by 2029 [1] - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest in nearly a decade [1][3] - Manufacturing construction spending has been on a downward trend since Trump's presidency, as companies are reluctant to make significant investments amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) highlights that nearly 100 different tariff policy decisions made by the Trump administration since April have escalated economic uncertainty [3] - Between May and July, the U.S. manufacturing job count decreased by a total of 37,000, with May's hiring numbers reaching the lowest level since 2016 [3] - Manufacturers' investment sentiment has significantly declined, with expectations for capital spending growth in 2025 revised down to a decrease of 1.3% [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that manufacturing is particularly vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty, as decisions to expand production often involve large, long-term, and irreversible investments [4] - Delayed investments not only slow innovation but may also lead to job losses in factories, weakened supply chains, and diminished competitiveness against other countries [5] Group 4 - The report compares the uncertainty from Trump's trade policies to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, noting that U.S. manufacturers face broader policy and economic consequences [6] - Even if all trade policies were finalized immediately, the recent turmoil could still harm long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [6] - The JEC estimates that uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could lead to an average annual investment reduction of 1%, resulting in a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [6]

Core Insights - Hamburg port's maritime cargo throughput is expected to grow by 3.6% in the first half of 2025, with container throughput increasing by 9.3, indicating a stable growth trend [1] - The port experienced a 19.3% decline in container throughput to the US due to frequent changes in US tariff policies, highlighting the negative impact of US trade policy uncertainty on global shipping and transatlantic trade [1] - In contrast, logistics cooperation with Asia and the Baltic region has increased, with container throughput growth primarily driven by East Asia and Baltic routes [1] - The data reflects the impact of US tariff policies on transatlantic trade and the warming trade relations between Europe and East Asia, with expectations that transatlantic trade will continue to be affected in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Samsonite's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 is $141 million, roughly in line with the expected $145 million [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, driven by cautious purchasing decisions from wholesale clients [1] - Wholesale channel revenue fell by 8.7% year-on-year, while direct sales only saw a decline of 1.3% [1] Management Outlook - Management anticipates some improvement in sales patterns for Q3, although ongoing trade policy uncertainties and inflationary pressures are affecting consumer sentiment and demand [1] - The company is taking measures to mitigate tariff impacts, including increasing inventory before tariff hikes and raising prices [1] Forecast Adjustments - UBS has raised its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Samsonite for the years 2023 to 2027 by 2% to 4%, along with a 2% increase in net sales forecasts [1] - It is expected that the year-on-year revenue decline will narrow in the second half of the year, with an overall anticipated revenue drop of 5% for the year [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has increased its target price for Samsonite to HKD 17.2, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that canola oil futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9715.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.99% [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are subject to dumping, imposing a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies, which introduces uncertainty in the trade policy between China and Canada [2] - Domestic canola oil inventory is at a seasonally high level, and changes in trade policies may lead traders to actively import canola oil from Russia and Dubai, potentially supplementing the supply from Canada [2] Group 2 - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the canola oil market is showing a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US [3] - The increase in domestic canola oil prices has further strengthened the vegetable oil sector, while the overall inventory of major oils, including soybean and palm oil, is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to wait for a new buying point after adjustments, with a long-term bullish outlook on oil fats [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.25. The counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and with the regulatory's expectation management, the RMB's short - term buffer against external shocks has increased [36][39]. Summary by Related Catalogs Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month US dollar against the RMB option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the US dollar against the RMB option has continued to decline, and the market's expectation of the future volatility of the US dollar against the RMB has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's US dollar against the RMB futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread in different time periods [7][8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has been activated, and there are fluctuations in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [11]. Macroeconomic Analysis US Economy - There is a differentiation in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. As of August 6, the TGA account was 464.3 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was 9.196 billion US dollars. Fed Chairman Powell did not give guidance on a September interest rate cut [19]. - The economic expectation has been revised upwards. In July, non - farm data was significantly revised downwards, inflation rebounded, fiscal spending increased significantly, and the economic situation showed marginal support [21]. - Fiscal spending has rebounded, especially in defense, medical insurance, and healthcare [22]. - The employment market in July was significantly revised downwards. The employment performance of the service sector was better than that of the commodity and government sectors, and the hourly wage in July increased by 0.3% month - on - month [28]. Chinese Economy - There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In July, exports and consumption showed resilience, but inflation has not recovered, and there is pressure on fixed - asset investment [29]. - Exports in July exceeded expectations. Financial data was better than expected, with changes in exports to different regions and products [31]. European Economy - The downside risks have been cleared. Economic data is oscillating at the bottom, with the manufacturing and service PMIs in Europe rebounding in July. Inflation is stable, with the eurozone's CPI in July increasing by 2% year - on - year and the core CPI increasing by 2.3% year - on - year [34]. Scenario Deduction - There are different time - based scenarios including the Fed's policy window period, the destocking cycle, tariff impacts, and domestic policy windows [40][41]. Risk Assessment - The range of basis fluctuations: From the historical data from January 2022 to the present, the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [45].

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company (DE.US) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 7.5% to $474.83, following the release of its third-quarter financial results which showed continued revenue and profit declines [1] Financial Performance - The company's third-quarter revenue decreased by 8.6% year-over-year to $12.02 billion, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of decline, although it surpassed analysts' average expectation of $11.86 billion [1] - Net profit fell by 25.7% year-over-year to $1.29 billion, translating to earnings per share of $4.75, which exceeded the expected $4.58 [1] Market Conditions - CEO John May indicated that customer sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and economic conditions [1] - The company is actively addressing the issue of a large number of used equipment in the industry [1]