Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in dollar demand has suppressed the buying power of the euro against the dollar, leading to a reversal of most gains made after Powell's speech last Friday, where the EUR/USD pair had briefly surpassed the 1.1700 mark [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at the July 24 high of 1.1788, with further resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.1830 reached on July 1. A breakthrough of 1.1830 could lead to testing the September 3, 2021 high of 1.1909, which is close to the 1.2000 level [3]. - Temporary support is located at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1488, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1391 and the May 29 low of 1.1210 [3]. - Momentum indicators show a lack of clear direction, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 51, suggesting limited upside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is below 11, indicating a sideways trend [3]. Market Outlook - The EUR/USD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with the dollar likely to dominate the overall trend until a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance or new trade-related developments occur [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data includes a decline in durable goods orders by 4.0%, with non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rising by 0.3%. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone was reported at 87, below the consensus of 90 [6]. Trade Relations - The trade tensions have eased with the U.S. and China extending the tariff truce for 90 days, delaying new tariff measures. Current tariffs remain high, with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. goods [7]. Central Bank Perspectives - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Powell's balanced remarks contrasting with the dovish stance of other board members. Upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report and inflation data, are critical for future policy decisions [8]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy is "robust, even slightly better than expected," but markets do not anticipate rate cuts until spring 2026 [9]. Speculative Sentiment - Speculative long positions in the euro have increased to nearly 118,700 contracts, a three-week high, while institutional investors have reduced short positions to about 166,400 contracts, a two-week low. Open interest has risen for the second consecutive week, reaching approximately 825,200 contracts [10].

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee (INR) has weakened against the US Dollar (USD), reaching around 87.60, despite a general dollar sell-off following dovish signals from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][3] - Powell indicated that the current economic conditions may warrant adjustments to monetary policy, citing increasing downside risks in the labor market [2][3] - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and India are negatively impacting the performance of the Indian Rupee, preventing it from capitalizing on the dollar's weakness [2][3] Group 2 - The US is expected to increase tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, the highest rate among all trade partners, which could reduce the competitiveness of Indian products in global markets [4] - The Indian government is implementing tax cuts to mitigate the impact of global trade risks and boost domestic consumption, with new Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms anticipated before the Diwali festival [4] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been withdrawing from the Indian stock market, with a total divestment of ₹257.51 billion in August, contributing to the pressure on the Indian Rupee [4] Group 3 - The Indian stock market initially rose due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, but the Nifty50 index is struggling to maintain a critical support level of 24,900 points [4] - The upcoming release of the second-quarter GDP data is expected to be a key catalyst for the Indian Rupee's performance, with the first quarter showing an annualized growth rate of 7.4% [4] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/INR pair remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately 87.35, suggesting a bullish short-term trend [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from the 50.00 level, and a breakthrough above 60.00 could generate new bullish momentum [6] - Key support for the currency pair is at the July 28 low of 86.55, while resistance is noted at the August 5 high of 88.25 [6]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of HKD 186 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 58.33% [1] - The loss attributable to the company's owners was HKD 25.61 million, compared to a profit of HKD 91.458 million in the same period last year [1] - The loss per share was HKD 0.0217, and the company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.01 per share [1] Group 2 - The decline in revenue was attributed to several factors, including the inability to benefit from the release of the movie "Godzilla x Kong: New Empire" in March 2024, leading to a decrease in product shipments related to "Godzilla x Kong" [1] - The "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" brand did not have any major entertainment events to drive demand, resulting in a slowdown in the product series [1] - Increased trade tensions have hindered shipments of goods to the U.S. market in April [1]

Group 1 - Brazil is filling a critical supply gap for soybeans, while the U.S. is missing out on sales opportunities to China worth billions due to tariff issues [1][3] - Chinese importers have completed soybean orders for September, totaling approximately 8 million tons, all sourced from South America, with an additional 4 million tons for October, which accounts for half of their expected demand [3] - Analysts suggest that China's significant soybean purchases in Q3 indicate that the industry is stockpiling in advance to mitigate potential supply risks in Q4 [3] Group 2 - U.S. soybean exports to China may still have some room until the end of 2025 or early 2026, but ongoing tariffs could limit sales volumes [3] - There is a potential shortfall of 2 to 5 million tons in soybean supply from Brazil to meet China's import needs [3] - In 2024, China is expected to import 105 million tons of soybeans, with 22.14 million tons (21.1%) from the U.S. and 74.65 million tons (71.1%) from Brazil, indicating a dominant reliance on Brazilian soybeans [4]

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading around 1.1682 against the US dollar, showing a slight increase of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1671 [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing geopolitical challenges but the eurozone economy is demonstrating resilience, according to ECB Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides [1] - Eurozone GDP showed a weak growth of 0.1% in the second quarter, and a recent trade agreement between the EU and the US has reduced some uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The ECB has maintained interest rates after eight consecutive cuts, with internal resistance to further rate reductions [1] - Inflation is expected to stabilize around the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, despite the uncertain geopolitical environment [1] - The current level of borrowing costs allows the ECB to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding future rate decisions, as stated by Gabriel Makhlouf, the Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The short-term trend of gold prices will be driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - Trump's tariff policy may lead to further adjustments in global supply chains, increasing inflation expectations and supporting gold prices [1] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is nearly certain, which will continue to suppress the dollar and bond yields, creating a favorable environment for gold prices [1] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold has the potential to rise towards the 3410-3420 range [3] - The MACD indicator has completed an adjustment below the zero line, and a bullish crossover is expected to trigger a significant price increase [3] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds and long positions during pullbacks, with key resistance at 3410-3420 and support at 3380-3370 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions, breaking above the short-term resistance of $37.87 [5] - If silver can maintain levels above $37.87, it may challenge the long-term resistance at $39.53, which is a 14-year high [5] - The trading strategy recommends buying on pullbacks at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, while aiming for $39.00 on a breakout [5]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has imposed a 39% tariff on goods imported from Switzerland, effective August 7, significantly impacting Swiss exports and prompting negotiations between the two countries [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Swiss Economy - Approximately 18% of Swiss exports go to the U.S., with nearly 60% of these exports affected by the new tariff [3][10]. - The Swiss government expressed that the tariff creates immense pressure on the export-oriented Swiss economy and is currently in discussions with the U.S. to mitigate the impact [3][4]. - The Swiss mechanical and electrical engineering industry association warned that prolonged high tariffs could lead to a halt in exports to the U.S., urging the government to continue negotiations [4][10]. Group 2: Specific Company Responses - Pilatus, a Swiss aircraft manufacturer, announced a suspension of aircraft deliveries to the U.S. due to the high tariffs, which significantly affect its sales as nearly 50% of its revenue comes from the U.S. market [7][8]. - The company indicated that if trade tensions persist, it may consider reducing working hours or cutting jobs, while also looking to expand production in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of tariffs [8][9]. Group 3: Broader Economic Consequences - The tariff is expected to have a substantial negative effect on the Swiss economy, potentially reducing GDP by 0.3% to 1% [9]. - The Swiss watch industry, which accounts for 16.8% of its global exports to the U.S., is particularly vulnerable, with annual sales valued at approximately 4.4 billion Swiss francs [10]. - Economiesuisse, a major Swiss business lobbying group, criticized the 39% tariff as unreasonable and a heavy burden on Swiss exporters [10].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a mix of fundamental factors, including China's central bank's increase in gold reserves and geopolitical tensions involving U.S. tariffs [3] - The technical outlook suggests that if gold breaks below the support level of $3375-$3370, it may indicate a bearish trend, while a breakout above $3409 could lead to further gains [6] - The current trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions near $3400, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6][8] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward trend in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifting OPEC+ policies [7] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]

来源：智昇财论 周四（8月7日）金价延续涨势，现货黄金强势突破3400美元心理关口，最终收于3395.65美元/盎司。周五（8月8日）亚洲早盘，金价一度冲高至 3408.71美元，创下7月23日以来的逾两周新高，避险需求成为推动金价走高的核心动力。全球贸易紧张局势加剧、美国劳动力市场数据疲软以及 美联储降息预期的持续升温，共同为黄金提供了强劲支撑。与此同时，地缘政治的不确定性也为金价的上涨增添了助力。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至8月2日当周，初请失业金人数增加7000人，达到22.6万人，为一个月来的最高水平。这一数据略高于市场预期， 暗示美国劳动力市场正在放缓。此外，7月新增就业岗位远低于预期，且前两个月就业数据被大幅下修近26万个，这一令人震惊的调整引发了市场 对经济放缓的担忧。特朗普甚至因此解雇了美国劳工统计局局长，引发投资者对官方数据质量的质疑。尽管初请失业金人数有所上升，但经济学 家指出，劳动力市场整体仍保持稳定，雇主倾向于通过自然减员而非大规模裁员来应对经济压力。这种"不招人、不裁人"的趋势使得失业率维持 在相对较低的4.2%。然而，续请失业金人数升至197.4万人，为2021年11月以来最高， ...

多头还是有比较强的韧性，从日线级别来看，金价今天最高触及3409附近，是下跌趋势线的压力位，如果行情今 日突破3408-10，可能会持续上破到3428，今日回踩还需多，今日早盘建议在3380一线做多，止损3370，目标看 3400-3405。 黄金行情分析： 最新的美国7月非农就业报告揭示出劳动力市场疲态，市场对美联储将降息的押注迅速升温。交易员预计，美联 储最早将在9月转向更为宽松的货币政策路径。宽松预期通常支撑黄金走势，因其压低实际利率，增强黄金的吸 引力。 在4小时的时间框架下，黄金市场释放出颇具积极意味的信号。本周黄金自200周期均线处强劲反弹，彰显出多头 力量的一定韧性。当前价格逼近3410美元这一关键关卡，若能成功突破，短期上涨趋势将得以延续，后续目标依 次指向3420 - 3422美元区间，而前高3434 - 3435美元附近构成强阻力区域，一旦突破，历史高点3500美元或近在 眼前。 期货沪金、融通金、积存金、黄金T+D买卖建议： 期货沪金：受国际金价上涨影响，短期偏强。融通金：与国际金价联动，受贸易摩擦影响，避险情绪升温，对价 格有一定支撑。积存金：长期受降息预期支撑，适合长期定投，短期随市 ...