Well, the minutes show no surprise that there was a very divided Fed at the last meeting. Some thought that inflation was going to rise too high. Some thought that unemployment rate rise to high and nobody could agree on what to do at the December meeting.In general, they agreed that inflation had moved up. The economy was expanding at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate remained low. But they did not agree on the outlook.Several said that inflation ex tariffs was close to target, but many noted infla ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a moderate increase in the Chinese stock market in 2026, with key challenges including corporate earnings quality, deflationary pressures, and global macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Projections - The target levels for major indices by December 2026 are set at 27,500 for the Hang Seng Index, 9,700 for the State-Owned Enterprises Index, and 4,840 for the CSI 300 Index, indicating potential upside of approximately 4%, 4%, and 5% respectively from the closing levels on November 17 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index has risen about 17% year-to-date, suggesting a second consecutive year of growth, driven by optimistic investor sentiment towards China's technological development [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of stock selection, recommending an overweight position in high-quality internet and technology leaders while reducing exposure to real estate, consumer staples, and energy sectors [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, total net revenues were reported at $40.4 million, with a net loss attributable to controlling shareholders of $0.7 million, equating to a loss of $0.24 per share. Adjusted net loss was $0.6 million or $0.23 per share. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $4.1 million [3][4][21] - For the first nine months of 2025, total net revenues were $34.9 million, representing a 25% decrease from $46.6 million in the same period of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for this period was $5 million, down from $7.6 million in 2024 [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company operated an average of 12 vessels in Q3 2025, earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $13,232 per day, compared to 13 vessels earning $13,105 per day in Q3 2024. The commercial utilization rate was 100% [25][26] - Daily cash flow break-even level for Q3 2025 was $12,482 per vessel, down from $15,145 per vessel in Q3 2024 [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Panama export rates increased from approximately $14,500 per day to $14,950 per day by the end of Q3 2025, with spot rates for Panamax vessels rising to around $15,500 per day as of November 7 [7][8] - The Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Panamax Index recorded year-over-year increases of approximately 6% and 14%, respectively, indicating a better market compared to the previous year [8][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue executing share repurchases under its $10 million plan, which has been extended for an additional year, while also modernizing its fleet in preparation for future market conditions [4][18] - The company is focusing on securing longer-term coverage when rates reach between $15,000 and $17,000 per day [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the overall market remains uncertain due to geopolitical developments, but there are signs of recovery in the dry bulk sector, supported by strong demand for minor bulks and robust grain trade flows [15][16] - The IMF projects global growth to ease slightly, with persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty impacting investment and trade activity [9][10] Other Important Information - The company has two Ultramax vessels under construction, scheduled for delivery in 2027, which will expand the fleet to 13 vessels with a total carrying capacity of just under 900,000 deadweight tons [6] - As of September 30, 2025, the company's debt stood at $97.9 million, with a repayment schedule indicating $13.1 million in repayments for 2025 [28][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the threshold for shifting from short-term index-linked exposure to securing longer-term coverage? - Management indicated that they would consider longer-term coverage if rates reach around $15,000 to $17,000 [32] Question: What is the timeline for the extra RENI vessel? - The extra RENI was fixed for a trip via South America and back to the Far East, expected to take about 90-100 days at a rate of approximately $16,500 per day [33] Question: What are the plans for improving near-term liquidity? - Management highlighted improved liquidity due to the sale of the Irini vessel and financing arrangements for new buildings, projecting a liquidity increase of over $15 million by year-end [35] Question: Can you clarify the new build financing and incremental debt? - Management confirmed that approximately $53 million in debt would be drawn to finance the two new buildings by their delivery in 2027 [37] Question: What is the outlook for rates on specific vessels? - Management explained that rates can vary significantly based on the type of voyage, with higher rates expected for voyages from the Atlantic to the Far East [38]

Core Insights - Despite ongoing trade tensions and seemingly high stock valuations, corporate executives exhibit unusual optimism regarding the economy [1] - The frequency of mentions of "economic slowdown" and its synonyms is at its lowest level since 2007, indicating a positive outlook among companies [1] - The S&P 500 index is on track for its third consecutive year of high returns, with stock prices remaining as expensive as their post-pandemic peak [1] Company Performance - Companies have managed to mitigate the impact of tariffs through price increases, cost-cutting measures, and supply chain simplification during the third quarter earnings season [1] - Global consumers have shown resilience, contributing to the positive performance of companies despite external economic pressures [1] Economic Context - The government shutdown has led to interruptions in official U.S. data, creating a more uncertain policy outlook, yet corporate optimism persists [1] - Investor concerns regarding tariffs severely damaging global growth and corporate profits have largely not materialized [1]

Company Performance - Tapestry reported third-quarter revenue of $1.70 billion and GAAP earnings of $1.28 per share, exceeding analyst forecasts despite a 12.7% drop in shares [1] - The company experienced a 21% year-on-year increase in constant currency revenue, indicating strong underlying performance [1] - Tapestry raised its full-year revenue outlook to approximately $7.3 billion based on the strong results [1] Market Reaction - The significant drop in Tapestry's stock suggests that investors had anticipated an even stronger performance and outlook from the company [1] - Tapestry's shares have shown volatility, with 12 moves greater than 5% in the past year, indicating that this news has notably impacted market perception [3] Broader Market Context - Recent comments from President Trump regarding China have injected volatility into the broader markets, particularly affecting the leisure industry, which is sensitive to economic sentiment [4] - China's announcement of new export controls on critical minerals is viewed as a strategic assertion of dominance in the global rare earth supply chain, raising concerns about economic headwinds and potential impacts on consumer spending [5]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD's Global Investment Trends Monitor report indicates a 3% decline in global foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2025, continuing a two-year trend of low investment levels [1] - The decline is primarily driven by developed economies, where cross-border mergers and acquisitions fell by 18% [1] - In contrast, developing economies showed better overall performance, with stable capital inflows [1] Regional Performance - Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a 12% increase in capital inflows [1] - Developing Asian countries saw a 7% growth in capital inflows [1] - Africa faced a significant decline, with capital inflows dropping by 42% [1] Investment Climate - High borrowing costs and economic uncertainty continue to pressure investments in industrial and infrastructure sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The easing of international trade tensions has improved risk appetite in Asian emerging markets, leading to a rebound in regional currencies from pressures caused by U.S. interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [1] Currency Performance - The Malaysian Ringgit has risen by 0.7% this week, potentially marking its largest weekly gain since August of last year [1] - The Thai Baht has increased by 1.2% this week, likely achieving its best weekly performance since September of last year [1] - The Thai Baht has appreciated over 6% this year, making it one of the best-performing currencies in the region; however, this strength poses risks to Thailand's export and tourism sectors, which are key drivers of the economy [1] U.S. Foreign Policy Shift - Alicia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at French Foreign Trade Bank, noted a strategic shift in the U.S. approach towards ASEAN, indicating a more balanced effort to rebuild relations with Southeast Asian countries [1]

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has experienced a significant drop of nearly $500 in just seven trading days after reaching a historical high, reflecting market volatility [1] - Central banks globally have been purchasing gold in large quantities, contributing to record high gold prices earlier this year, but recent fluctuations have raised concerns [1] - The former governor of the Philippine central bank highlighted that the country's gold holdings are above the ideal range, suggesting a potential need to sell gold if prices decline [1][2] Market Trends - Gold prices surged past the $4000 mark but quickly retreated, causing market disturbances [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by trade tensions and technical overbought conditions in the gold market, has led to increased interest in gold from both central banks and retail investors [1] - Despite the recent price drop, factors such as slowing economic growth, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening dollar may continue to support gold prices [1] Price Data - As of October 30, 2023, the spot gold price was reported at $3969.59 per ounce, reflecting a 1.04% increase [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term tops of gold and silver formed last week are confirmed. COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week, rebounded above $4000 on the 29th, and investors should wait for stabilization and stay on the sidelines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to $3941.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to $47.275 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.69% to 910.92 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.64% to 11265 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of October 29, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 2.87 tons to 1036.05 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 15209.57 tons [1]. - On the 28th, after Hamas fired on Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed the Israeli army to launch a strong strike on the Gaza Strip. On the 29th, the Israeli army resumed the cease - fire agreement after the attack [1]. - Chinese President will meet with the US President in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [1]. - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds target rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chair Powell said a further rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion" [1]. Market Logic - The news of the China - US summit on the 30th is conducive to easing global trade tensions. The resumption of firing between Israel and Hamas on the 28th may trigger risk - aversion sentiment. The US government shutdown continues. Technical factors and profit - taking led to the sharp decline of COMEX gold and silver last week, followed by a short - term stabilization. COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week, and silver also pulled back [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for gold and silver to stabilize and stay on the sidelines as the short - term tops are confirmed and COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week [2].

Market Performance - US stocks ended higher on October 28, supported by upbeat corporate earnings and improved investor sentiment amid easing trade tensions [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34%, or 161 points, to 47,706, hitting a new record close [1] - The broader S&P 500 gained 0.23%, or 15 points, to 6,890, also ending at a record high after surpassing 6,900 earlier in the session [2] - The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.80%, or 190 points, to 23,827, witnessing a record close as well, boosted by a 4.98% jump in Nvidia shares to $201.03 [3] Company Performance - Wall Street was boosted by a jump in shares of United Parcel Service (UPS) by 8% to $96.36, Wayfair by 23.22% to $106.52, and PayPal by 3.92% to $73 after these companies reported better-than-expected financial results [4]