场内ETF方面，截至2025年12月16日收盘，中证A500指数下跌1.37%，A500ETF龙头(563800)全天换手 7.75%，成交10.37亿元。拉长时间看，截至2025年12月15日，A500ETF龙头近半年累计上涨22.59%。成 分股方面涨跌互现，航天电子、中公教育双双10cm涨停，四维图新上涨6.44%；东方日升领跌，恩捷股 份、奥飞娱乐跟跌；指数前十大权重股合计占比20.04%。 规模方面，截至2025年12月15日，A500ETF龙头最新规模达135.11亿元。从资金净流入方面来看， A500ETF龙头近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.04亿元净流入，合计"吸金"1.53亿元。 数据显示，2025年前11个月我国累计贸易顺差达7.7万亿元，首次突破万亿美元，展现出较强出口韧 性。高顺差背景下企业持汇规模持续累积，为跨境资金回流提供了充足蓄水池。广发证券指出，随着美 联储转向鸽派降息、美元走弱，叠加国内流动性需求释放，预计跨境资金回流对国内流动性的补充效应 有望延续至2026年第一季度。 宏观方面，近日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕， 2 ...

创业板ETF天弘(159977)跟踪创业板指数，聚焦高端制造、光伏、新能源汽车等战略性新兴产业，且涨跌幅限制为20%，具备高 弹性优势，在历轮A股反弹行情中领涨宽基指数，或为投资者把握A股牛市的反弹先锋。 【热点事件】 截至2025年12月16日 14:44，创业板ETF天弘(159977)盘中换手2.21%，成交1.84亿元。跟踪的创业板指数(399006) V型反弹。成 分股方面涨跌互现，卓胜微(300782)领涨4.66%，电连技术(300679)上涨2.96%，爱美客(300896)上涨2.02%。 值得一提的是，创业板ETF天弘(159977)盘中获资金积极布局，申购份额已达6000万份。 | | 创业板ETF天弘 159977 | द्रे | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 通 脚 ◇ ○ + | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 赎回 | | 笔数 | 30 | 14 | | 金额 | 0 | O | | 份额 | 6000万 | 2800万 | 拉长时间看，截至12月15日，创业板ETF天弘(159977)近半年份额增长10.25亿份，实现显著增长。 【产品亮点】 1、 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is set to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a focus on technology, brokerage insurance, and consumption sectors [5][6]. Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, but recent trends indicate a recovery, particularly in the ChiNext Index. The team believes that the market consensus is overly pessimistic regarding policy interpretations, and anticipates a more optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and promoting investment [6][10]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, marking a shift towards stabilizing investment and addressing real estate inventory issues [6][10]. Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December to April, with a notable shift in focus from large-cap to small-cap stocks post-Spring Festival. The article highlights the importance of this period for positioning in the market, especially for sectors with strong industrial trends [7][10]. Industry Comparisons - The article identifies key sectors for investment: 1. **Technology Growth**: AI advancements and infrastructure shortages present opportunities in internet, media, and computing sectors, as well as manufacturing with global competitive advantages [8][16]. 2. **Financial Sector**: Capital market reforms are expected to boost brokerage and insurance sectors, enhancing their investment appeal [8][19]. 3. **Cyclical Consumption**: After three years of adjustment, the consumption sector shows signs of recovery, particularly in food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism [8][19]. Thematic Recommendations - **Commercial Aerospace**: The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket and accelerated satellite networking present investment opportunities in aerospace infrastructure and technology [21][22]. - **Energy Transition**: The focus on expanding green energy applications and building a new energy system highlights investment potential in smart grids and new energy storage solutions [23][24]. - **AI Applications**: The push for AI integration across industries suggests significant growth potential in internet and data center sectors [24]. - **Domestic Consumption**: The emphasis on building a strong domestic market and enhancing consumer spending indicates opportunities in sports events, tourism, and emerging consumer goods [25][27].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗 鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 摘要 ▶在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观 之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复 失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误，2025 年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好 势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长）， 并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，继续实 施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济 活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下， ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is expected to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a cross-year offensive already underway [1][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, which was seen as a critical position for market recovery, with the ChiNext Index having recently regained lost ground [7][9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of the economy, calling for a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand [4][8] Group 2: Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December of the previous year to April of the current year, with a significant start point around 10-15 trading days before the Spring Festival [9][10] - The report notes that large-cap stocks tend to perform better before the Spring Festival, while small-cap stocks often outperform after the festival due to seasonal liquidity improvements [10][12] - The current market environment, characterized by significant prior adjustments and supportive policies, presents an important window for positioning ahead of the spring market [10][12] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The report highlights a positive outlook for technology, financial services, and consumer sectors as the market transitions into a cross-year offensive [4][8] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI models and applications are accelerating, with a recommendation for investments in internet, media, computing, and competitive manufacturing sectors [4][8] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from deepened capital market reforms, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4][8] - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery after three years of adjustment, with recommendations for low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks such as food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism services [4][8]

Core Insights - The forum titled "Tide Rising in the East, Intelligent Allocation Globally" was successfully held by Guotai Junan (Chongqing) on November 22, 2023, with participation from over ten financial institutions [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - Zhang Qian, General Manager of the Asset Allocation Department at Guotai Junan Securities, emphasized the need for upgrading traditional "fixed income +" models in the context of a "low interest rate era" and highlighted the consensus on diversified asset allocation to address market uncertainties and pursue long-term stable returns [4] - Fang Yi, Chief Analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, noted that the underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is undergoing a transformation, characterized by the "transformation bull" where capital market reforms and economic structural transitions mutually reinforce each other, driven by enhanced certainty in China's transformation, deepening capital market reforms, and declining risk-free returns [4] - Zuo Xiuhai, Deputy General Manager, suggested that the "fixed income +" strategy should focus more on investment win rates rather than odds, serving as a stable income base in portfolios, while the equity portion should target areas with medium to long-term logic such as AI and anti-involution, utilizing quantitative strategies to seek excess returns [4] Group 2: Forum Structure and Discussions - The forum featured a main venue and three sub-forums focused on asset allocation, private equity allocation, and wealth allocation, inviting industry experts and leading financial institutions to discuss hot topics such as A-share equity investment strategies, overseas investments, and asset allocation strategies in a low interest rate environment [5]

截至午间收盘，中证人工智能主题指数下跌3.5%，上证科创板人工智能指数下跌2.1%，人工智能ETF（159819）半日净申购超1.5亿份。 国泰海通证券表示，中国"转型牛"内在趋势确定，从交易上来看，当前A股热门科技赛道调整幅度已接近历次科技牛情绪性调整的均值水平。因此，外部扰 动不会终结趋势，每一次回调都是增持中国的时机。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic transformation is accelerating, leading to a demand for quality assets, particularly in the technology sector, despite recent adjustments in the A-share market [1] - The light communication sector has shown strong performance, with over 70% of listed companies reporting earnings growth in the first three quarters, driven by expanding demand for AI computing power [3] - The storage sector is experiencing a significant economic turning point, with expectations of 300GWh of new installations next year, driven by marketization of renewable energy and capacity pricing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices have weakened following significant outflows from gold ETFs, indicating that the previous surge was largely speculative, with fundamental support for gold diminishing [5] - Recent changes in domestic gold policies, such as taxation on gold jewelry, are aimed at curbing speculation but are not expected to have a substantial impact on gold prices [5] - The short-term outlook for gold is influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, although long-term support remains due to concerns over the dollar's creditworthiness [5] Group 3 - The short-term market trend is weak, with limited new capital entering the market and a lack of significant profit-making opportunities [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a rise in large-cap stocks, while the overall market remains cautious, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [11] - The technology sector and value stocks are expected to be key focus areas, with strong performance in the computing power supply chain following recent adjustments [11]

Core Insights - The cash flow ETF (159399) has seen a net inflow of over 140 million yuan in the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest in cash flow-focused investments [1] - The FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow industry is benefiting from the certainty of China's "transformation bull" trend, which includes accelerated transformation pace, risk-free yield decline, and capital market reforms [1] - Analysts suggest that there is a growing demand for high-quality assets with solid development logic, and companies with abundant free cash flow are likely to be favored by the market [1] Market Performance - The FTSE Cash Flow Index has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices [1] - The ETF has consistently paid dividends for nine months since its listing, making it an attractive option for investors [1] Industry Trends - Industrial metals like copper are expected to see improved cash flow conditions due to demand driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles, alongside structural demand from AI computing expansion and grid modernization [1] - The marginal improvement in China-U.S. relations is also seen as beneficial for the overall performance of Chinese assets [1]