Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [50] Core Insights - The report indicates that the breeding capacity of sows is expected to continue to decrease, with further potential for reduction in the future. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at historical lows, presenting opportunities for low-position investments based on capacity reduction expectations [50] - In the poultry farming sector, the impact of avian influenza has limited the introduction of breeding stock for white feather chickens, leading to expectations of capacity reduction. Attention is drawn to leading companies in high-quality white feather chicken farming, while yellow feather chicken farming is expected to see profit improvements due to declining breeding costs [50] - In the feed sector, raw material cost pressures are expected to ease, and the concentration of leading companies is likely to continue to increase [50] - In the seed industry, trade frictions highlight food security concerns, and the commercialization of genetically modified organisms is progressing, with a focus on leading companies with research and development advantages [50] - The domestic pet market is expanding rapidly, with a focus on leading companies that cater to domestic demand [50] Industry Performance Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 0.32% from April 25 to May 8, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.49 percentage points [16] - Among the sub-sectors, only feed and breeding recorded negative returns, down 0.08% and 1.02% respectively, while animal health, fishery, planting, and agricultural product processing saw positive returns of 5%, 2.19%, 2.08%, and 2% respectively [17][18] - Approximately 72% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [18] - As of May 8, 2025, the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio of the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index was about 2.58 times, slightly recovering over the past two weeks, and remains at 57.2% of the historical valuation center since 2006, indicating a historical low [22] Key Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased slightly from 14.99 yuan/kg to 14.90 yuan/kg between April 25 and May 8, 2025. The breeding sow inventory reached 40.39 million heads at the end of March 2025, a decrease of 0.66% month-on-month but an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a normal holding level of 103.6% [26] - **Cost**: As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of corn was 2360.98 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while the spot price of soybean meal was 3300 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease [28] - **Profitability**: As of May 9, 2025, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, slightly down from the previous week, while the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, slightly up from the previous week [31] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks in major production areas was 2.91 yuan/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 7.45 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease, with a profit of -0.1 yuan/chick [33][36] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale price of crucian carp was 20.68 yuan/kg, and for carp, it was 14.29 yuan/kg, remaining stable over the past two weeks [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, highlighting significant profit recovery in 2024 and continued growth in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry saw a substantial turnaround in 2024, with a total net profit of 39.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 694% [16][17]. - Key sub-sectors such as pig farming, poultry farming, and seed industry reported impressive profit growth rates of 321%, 261%, and 130% respectively in 2024 [2][16]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued to show strong performance, with a total net profit of 9.932 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 764% [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 and Q1 2025 Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector achieved a net profit of 39.648 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery from losses in 2023 [16][17]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's net profit reached 9.932 billion yuan, continuing the positive trend from 2024 [20][21]. 2. Key Sub-Sector Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector reported a total revenue of 387.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 30.7 billion yuan, driven by rising pig prices and reduced costs [23][28]. - In Q1 2025, the sector maintained profitability with a net profit of 7.62 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in pig prices [40][45]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The white-feathered chicken sector faced challenges with low demand and oversupply, resulting in a revenue of 31.69 billion yuan in 2024, while the yellow-feathered chicken sector saw a recovery in profitability [2][23]. - In Q1 2025, the poultry sector's net profit was 1.2 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the previous year [2][20]. 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food industry experienced robust growth, with total revenue of 12.15 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue reached 3.09 billion yuan, continuing the upward trend [2][20]. 2.4 Feed Industry - The feed sector faced sales pressure but saw a recovery in gross margins, with total revenue of 156.62 billion yuan in 2024 [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, the feed industry reported a revenue of 35.63 billion yuan, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][20]. 2.5 Animal Health - The animal health sector faced increased competition in 2024, leading to a decline in profitability, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025 with improved sales [2][4]. - The sector's revenue in 2024 was 16.472 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.162 billion yuan [2][4]. 2.6 Seed Industry - The seed industry reported a revenue of 14.86 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 370 million yuan, affected by declining grain prices [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the sector continued to face challenges, with a revenue of 2.43 billion yuan and a significant drop in net profit [2][4]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on leading pig farming companies for long-term value, as the sector is currently at a historical low valuation [3][5]. - The pet food sector is highlighted as a long-term growth opportunity, driven by increasing pet ownership and spending [3][6]. - The feed industry is expected to see demand recovery, supported by improved livestock numbers and stable raw material prices [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [6] Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry achieved total revenue of 12,460.8 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, but net profit attributable to shareholders was 483.8 billion, marking a return to profitability [14] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported total revenue of 2,917.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with net profit of 134.0 billion, also returning to profitability [17] - The improvement in profitability is primarily attributed to the recovery in pig prices and a decrease in breeding costs [14][17] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In 2024, the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry saw a total revenue of 12,460.8 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 483.8 billion, indicating a return to profitability [14] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a total revenue of 2,917.0 billion, up 8.1% year-on-year, with net profit reaching 134.0 billion, also indicating a return to profitability [17] Subsector Performance Swine Breeding Sector - In 2024, the SW swine breeding sector achieved total revenue of 3,880.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with net profit of 306.8 billion, marking a return to profitability [19] - Q1 2025 saw total revenue of 961.8 billion, a 20.0% year-on-year increase, with net profit of 76.2 billion, also returning to profitability [22] - The recovery in profitability is driven by higher average pig prices and lower breeding costs [20][28] Poultry Breeding Sector - The SW poultry breeding sector reported total revenue of 729.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with net profit soaring to 29.5 billion, a 2095% increase [30] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 160.1 billion, up 1.1% year-on-year, with net profit of 3.8 billion, a 155.4% increase [31] - The growth in revenue and net profit is attributed to increased sales volume and reduced raw material costs [33] Feed Sector - The SW feed sector achieved total revenue of 2,624.3 billion in 2024, down 8.3%, but net profit was 79.2 billion, returning to profitability [40] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 610.8 billion, a 10.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 21.4 billion, a 675.8% increase [41] - The significant increase in net profit is due to improved gross margins and reduced expense ratios [41][47] Animal Health Sector - The SW animal health sector reported total revenue of 180.3 billion in 2024, a 6.5% increase, but net profit fell to 6.3 billion, a 61% decrease [49] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 46.7 billion, a 23.9% increase, with net profit of 5.1 billion, a 32.8% increase [50] - The recovery in Q1 2025 is attributed to increased sales and reduced expense ratios [52] Planting Sector - The SW planting sector achieved total revenue of 1,039.7 billion in 2024, a 10.3% increase, but net profit fell to 19.4 billion, a 45.8% decrease [59] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 218.6 billion, a 14.4% increase, with net profit of 8.0 billion, a 12.2% decrease [62] - The decline in net profit is primarily due to lower gross margins and decreased non-operating income [62]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of RMB 11.34 [6][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is RMB 1.246 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.74%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 56.63 million, down 77.86% year-on-year, primarily due to significant asset impairment losses in Q4 2024 [1][2]. - The domestic corn seed market is oversupplied, leading to weak sales and intense competition, which has pressured the company's revenue and profitability [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the commercialization of genetically modified (GM) crops, with several GM corn varieties already approved and more in the pipeline [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.246 billion, with corn seed revenue at RMB 1.07 billion and wheat seed revenue at RMB 110 million, reflecting declines of 21% and 3.4% respectively [2][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 28.1%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by a significant drop in rice seed margins [2][5]. - The company recorded an asset impairment loss of RMB 129 million, which significantly impacted profitability, resulting in a net loss in Q4 2024 [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to increase its R&D investment, which reached RMB 83.22 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%, indicating a commitment to innovation and product development [3][4]. - The long-term outlook is positive due to the strategic emphasis on food security and agricultural innovation by the Chinese government, which may enhance the company's market position [3][4]. Financial Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is RMB 161.47 million, a significant increase of 185.15% compared to 2024 [5][16]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 1.277 billion, reflecting a slight recovery from the previous year [5][16]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position as a leading corn seed producer, benefiting from the anticipated growth in the agricultural sector [4][5].