Report Overview - This is the agricultural product morning report of Wukuang Futures on November 3, 2025, covering protein meals, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, expect short - term price increases following import costs, with a mid - term strategy of selling on rebounds due to the expected global soybean supply surplus [5] - For oils, suggest a bearish view in the short - term until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] - For sugar, recommend looking for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens due to limited upward space for raw sugar [13] - For cotton, expect limited upward space for cotton prices in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [16] - For eggs, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] - For pigs, suggest a strategy of selling on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20] Summary by Category Protein Meals Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose as the market expected China to buy a large amount of US soybeans. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the East China price at 2950 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was average, and pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the main Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level. US officials said China will buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans after the APEC talks [3] Strategy Viewpoints - Import costs will mainly trade in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the inventory - reduction season approaches, there is some support. Expect short - term price increases following import costs, a rebound in the crushing margin, and an increase in vessel bookings. In the mid - term, the expected global soybean supply surplus remains unchanged, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [5] Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 30 increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63% compared with the same period last month. As of the week of October 26, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% to 155,500 tons. China and Canada agreed to promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues [7] Strategy Viewpoints - The high - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. Palm oil's inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. Before Malaysian palm oil exports improve, maintain a bearish view, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to trade sideways. The closing price of the January contract was 5483 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of processed sugar remained unchanged. In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 34.037 million tons, a sugar production of 2.484 million tons, and an increase in the sugar - making ratio [11][12] Strategy Viewpoints - Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the overseas market is still weak. Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season limits the upward space for raw sugar. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [13] Cotton Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures traded in a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. As of the week of October 31, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.6%. On November 1, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.31 yuan/kg [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Due to weak demand during the peak consumption season this year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expected high - yield in the new year, and the selling hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in the new cotton purchase price has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space for cotton prices in the short - term is limited [16] Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable, with some local decreases. The laying hen inventory decreased slightly, but the supply of medium and small - sized eggs was still sufficient. The demand side was supported by increased stocking due to the cooling weather and upcoming Double Eleven preparations [17] Strategy Viewpoints - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in inventory. With increased stocking sentiment after the cooling, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With upcoming consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - festival preparations, the market sentiment is improving. However, due to the high premium in the futures market and the expected high supply, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly declined. Some large - scale breeding groups increased their pig sales at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price drop. The demand increase was insufficient, and the supply still exceeded demand [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Large - scale breeding groups have a high plan completion rate, but the spot price increase was less than expected due to difficulties in selling pork. There is a phenomenon of inventory postponement, and the market is under high - supply pressure. The futures market has priced in the future supply pressure in advance. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the import of US soybeans may slow down the domestic de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. - For sugar, the tightening of syrup and premix import controls drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound, and it is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2910 yuan/ton, the transaction volume at 145,000 tons, and the delivery volume at 196,400 tons. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days last week. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week. As of last Thursday, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36%, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a neutral level [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans is mainly oscillating. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the crushing profit is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, the export volume from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% - 16.2%, the export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4%, and the export volume from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4%. SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, the production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71%, and the production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63%. The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market, and there are rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.4% compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants were stable. The customs has tightened the import control of Thai syrup and premix, with the number of suspended enterprises increasing from 35 to 44, and the scope of suspension expanding [9]. - **Strategy**: The tightening of import controls drives the rebound of sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% compared with the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton increased slightly, and the basis was 1243 yuan/ton. The China - US economic and trade teams reached some consensus in the negotiations, including the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" by the US on Chinese goods [12]. - **Strategy**: The demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.88 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were average. It is expected that the national egg prices will mostly remain stable and a few areas may have narrow adjustments today [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends with more price - falling areas. As the end of the month approaches, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is not high, but the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing decreases after the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will be stable with a weak trend today [18]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - LPG is in a low - valuation operation period under a weak fundamental situation. Due to the盘面's downward pricing of import costs, the basis has widened passively, and the risk of chasing short positions is high. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short - allocate [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Fundamental Situation - On October 9, 2025, after the holiday, the LPG futures opened significantly lower and continued to be under pressure during the session. The main contract fell by 5.61% at the morning close [6]. - On September 30, Saudi Aramco announced the October CP. Propane was at $49/ton, a decrease of $25/ton from the previous month, and butane was at $475/ton, a decrease of $15/ton from the previous month. During the holiday, the November CP swap contract continued to decline, with the propane contract dropping from $520/ton on September 30 to $476/ton on October 8 [6]. - The domestic refinery operating rate remains relatively high, and the external supply of LPG is relatively abundant. However, the domestic civil gas spot was relatively stable during the holiday, so domestic factors were not the main cause of the futures price decline [6]. - On the supply side, the production of domestic refineries and value - added enterprises is in a seasonal improvement period, and the overseas associated gas production cycle continues. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Azerbaijan are in the OPEC+ production - increasing countries, and the LPG shipments of these three countries are strongly correlated with crude oil shipments, providing room for the环比 increase in associated gas supply [6]. - On the demand side, the consumption of civil gas is shrinking year by year, there are no short - term bright spots in chemical demand, and the seasonal demand for blending oil is weakening, facing the pressure of a peak season without a boom [6]. - After the overseas market closed this round, the ratio of Far - East LPG to naphtha has returned to the annual high and is still at the optimal level in the same period in recent years, which is expected to drive chemical demand to some extent in the later stage, but the supply - side bearishness is difficult to reverse [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by Trump's signal of trade talks, the US market rose significantly. After a sharp emotional decline, the domestic market rebounded. It is expected that the overall impact on import costs will be limited under the offset of the rising US market. MO1 is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of the August supply - demand report this week and the subsequent import situation of Argentine soybean meal [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - This week, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the production areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean pressure reduction in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy [7]. Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The far - month trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly this week [7][8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides a large amount of data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures contracts in different regions, as well as the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the import soybean crushing profit and other price - related data [6][7].

Report Information - Report Title: LPG Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Some plant restarts have driven the PDH operating rate up to around 73%, and there are still new production plans in August, with a marginal improvement in chemical demand [3]. - The sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises is 101%, a 1-percentage-point increase from the previous period, indicating a short-term relief of shipment pressure [3]. - Port inventories have increased to 321.6 million tons (+8.2 million tons), reaching a new high for the year, with significant supply pressure [3]. - The official August CP price for propane is $520 per ton ($55 lower than the previous period), and the landed cost is suppressing domestic prices [3]. - During the off-season, combustion demand is weak. The increase in chemical demand cannot offset the pressure of high inventories. Coupled with the decline in import costs, LPG will continue its volatile and weak pattern [4]. Data Charts - The content includes multiple data charts, including the settlement price of propane's Far East landed price FEI: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of FEI to Brent (daily), PDH profit/operating rate, the seasonal ratio of FEI to MOPJ spread (daily), FEI discount, Middle East offshore discount (daily), the settlement price of propane's US offshore price: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of MB to WTI (daily), CP M1 - MB M1, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, US propane import volume (weekly seasonal), US propane inventory (weekly seasonal), and US propane export volume (weekly seasonal) [5][9][12][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The LPG market is mainly in a state of shock, with the basis and monthly spreads slightly weakening. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 1 to July 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of South China LPG was 4630 on July 1 and 4620 on July 6, with a daily change of 0. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] Market Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4486. FEI and CP continued to decline, and the CP discount dropped significantly. PP fluctuated, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved. The PG disk oscillated, and the monthly spread oscillated, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 93. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Outlook - The overall disk is mainly in a state of shock. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spreads have also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Demand Situation - The PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12 pct), but it is expected to increase in the future. Next week, Xintai Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III are expected to resume operation, and some operating enterprises will gradually increase their loads. Many PDH plants are expected to restart at the end of July. The gasoline terminal demand is poor, and MTBE is weakly sorted. The combustion demand is weak [1] Inventory and Supply - The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. East China has accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China has a weak supply - demand situation and the factory has reduced inventory. The external supply has decreased, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall PG market is in a weak and volatile state, with small changes in the basis (349), a slight strengthening of the 8 - 9 month spread (97), and the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost has dropped significantly, the FEI offshore premium has declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival premium has strengthened. The overseas market month spread has weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The domestic - foreign price difference has strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Fundamentally, domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates have dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct) with improved profits, and it is expected that PDH operating rates will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remains flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. - Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas declined (4529), with an average overall trading atmosphere. Terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]. - Currently, prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Although chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 2 - 8, 2025, South China LPG decreased from 4690 to 4630, East China LPG decreased from 4582 to 4494, and Shandong LPG remained at 4590 on July 8. Propane CFR South China had some fluctuations, and propane CIF Japan increased from 517 to 551. MB propane spot increased from 73 to 75, and CP forecast contract price increased from 556 to 561. The paper import profit showed a downward trend, and the main contract basis decreased by 16 on July 8 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 08 - 09 spread of PG was 96 at one point and then the 8 - 9 spread strengthened slightly to 97. PG - CP reached 22.5 (+26.5), FEI - CP reached - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Industry Operation - **PDH**: The PDH operating rate dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct), and profits improved. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future [1]. - **Alkylation**: The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. Regional Market Analysis - **Shandong**: Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose to 4610. With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate [1]. - **East China**: East China civil gas declined to 4529. The overall trading atmosphere was average, and terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand [1]. - **South China**: South China civil gas fluctuated downward to 4660 mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].

Group 1: Market Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG on July 7, 2025, were 4660, 4529, and 4590 respectively [1] - The propane CFR South China was 580, propane CIF Japan was 539, and MB propane spot was 74 on July 7, 2025 [1] - The CP forecast contract price was 560 on July 7, 2025, and the paper import profit was -122, with a daily change of -46 [1] - The main contract basis was 440 on July 7, 2025, with a daily change of -9 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The PG futures slightly strengthened, and the monthly spread widened. The 08 - 09 spread was 111 [1] - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4529 [1] - The PP price declined, FEI and CP prices dropped, while the CP discount increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP rose [1] - The overall futures market was in a weak and volatile state, with a small change in the basis (349) and a slight increase in the August - September spread (97) [1] - The import cost decreased significantly, the FEI offshore discount declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival discount strengthened [1] - The outer - market monthly spread weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio increased [1] - The domestic - foreign price difference strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching -22.75 (+35) [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Domestically, port inventory, factory inventory, and external sales volume remained basically flat [1] - PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05pct), with improved profit, and it was expected to increase slightly in the future [1] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged, and it was expected to increase due to the planned restart of some devices [1] - Shandong civil LPG price first decreased and then increased (4610), with low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and chemical demand support [1] - East China civil LPG price declined (4529), with a general trading atmosphere, and it was expected to remain weak due to more arrivals and off - season demand [1] - South China civil LPG price fluctuated downward (4660) due to high import cost and weak terminal demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, Saudi Aramco's July CP was released, showing an unexpected decline. Propane was at $575/ton (-$25), and butane was at $545/ton (-$25), leading to a significant reduction in import costs. Domestic LPG production decreased slightly, and international vessel arrivals dropped. Civilian demand remained seasonally weak, while the chemical industry's demand showed mixed trends. Next week, civilian demand is expected to stay weak, and the chemical industry's overall start - up rate may be boosted in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor OPEC+ production increases, downstream device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane decreased by $25/ton. Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons, a slight reduction of 0.06%. Civilian gas production was 229,600 tons (-0.39%), and ether - after production was 163,300 tons (-0.55%). International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons (-18.82%), and arrivals are expected to increase next week. Civilian combustion demand was seasonally weak. PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.05% (+0.66%). Civilian gas prices declined slightly, while ether - after C4 prices rose significantly. Next week, civilian demand will remain weak, and the chemical industry's start - up rate may be boosted [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - The report presents data on LPG futures and spot prices, including LPG main contracts, APS propane main contracts, and AFE propane main contracts. It also shows the LPG forward curve, APS propane forward curve, and AFE propane forward curve. Additionally, it provides information on price differences such as PG08 - 09, PG08 - 05, APS propane main - continuous one, etc. Regional quotes, premiums, discounts, and freight rates are also covered, including historical data on US - to - Far - East freight, Middle - East - to - Far - East freight, etc. [7][11][12] 3.3 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports to Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [29][30][31]. - **Middle - East Exports**: It presents historical data on Middle - East LPG exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [35][36][37]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons (-0.06%). Propane supply in China was 545,400 tons, a 17.07% decrease. Domestic refinery production was 46,400 tons, a 7.91% increase. International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons, mainly in Shandong. Inventory data for East China, South China, and Shandong are also provided [44][47][48]. 3.4 Demand - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.06% (+0.66%). The report also shows historical data on alkylation profit, domestic PDH operating rate, MTBE traditional profit, etc. [50][51]