1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the bean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the overall supply is ample, exerting pressure on prices. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans is sufficient, and the inventories of soybeans and bean meal remain at relatively high levels. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be closely monitored. For corn, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2549 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.47%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 2, a change of + 5 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 68, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 58, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, an increase of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 181, a change of - 2 from the previous day. - Market Information: On November 4th, the rural economic department of Paraná state reported that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season in Paraná state had reached 79% of the expected area, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous week. The soybean growth was generally good, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good condition, 6% in medium condition, and 1% in poor condition [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The overall supply is ample, and there is pressure on the price upside. In China, the supply of soybeans and bean meal is also relatively loose. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be focused on [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2154 yuan/ton, an increase of + 20 yuan/ton (+ 0.94%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2469 yuan/ton, an increase of + 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 1, a change of - 30 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 81, a change of - 18 from the previous day. - Market Information: The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that the grain output in Ukraine this year is expected to be 59 million tons, higher than last year's 56 million tons. The wheat and barley harvests are completed, with yields the same as last year. The wheat output is between 22 million and 22.5 million tons, and the barley output is 5.3 million tons. The Russian government plans to continue implementing the grain export quota system in 2026, with an expected scale of 20 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Overview - This is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 5, 2025, covering market information and strategic views on multiple agricultural products [1][2] Market Information Soybean and Bean Meal - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and the expectation of a global soybean bumper harvest. Brazilian soybean premium was stable, while the cost of domestic soybean imports increased [2] - On Tuesday, the domestic bean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan/ton. Bean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. The oil mill operating rate was 51%, down from the previous period [2] - MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume this week would be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2] - As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. It was rumored that China had purchased several cargoes of US soybeans [2] Fats and Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% [6] - Reuters survey showed that palm oil inventory was expected to soar 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023 [6] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted that in November, the consumption of fats and oils would enter the peak season. With the depletion of domestic rapeseed inventory in oil mills and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory, and the recent decline in the fat and oil market price driven by palm oil, downstream consumption demand might be stimulated [6] - On Tuesday, domestic fats and oils slightly corrected. It was reported that Australian rapeseed would enter China, while palm oil was still restricted by the high recent production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6] Sugar - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day [9] - In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - According to UNICA data, in the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 34.037 million tons, an increase of 0.3% year - on - year; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year - on - year; sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year [10] Cotton - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 13535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day [13] - As of the week ending October 31, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared with the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [13] - On November 3, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.01 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [13] Eggs - The national egg price remained stable yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, with the price in Heishan remaining at 2.7 yuan/jin and that in Guantao at 2.69 yuan/jin [17] Pigs - Domestic pig prices generally continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.25 yuan to 12.04 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped 0.19 yuan to 11.67 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped 0.26 yuan to 11.63 yuan/kg [20] Strategic Views Soybean and Bean Meal - The import cost is expected to fluctuate mainly. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure. In the short term, bean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, stimulating ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [4] Fats and Oils - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. In the short term, the current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signs of production decline [8] Sugar - Recently, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound momentum to weaken and then look for opportunities to short [11] Cotton - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The new - year domestic cotton harvest is abundant, and the selling hedging pressure is high. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [14] Eggs - The continuous low replenishment and high culling of chickens have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. It is expected that the egg price will be mainly strong and consolidate in the short term, and the upper - level pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18] Pigs - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the increasing difficulty in selling white - striped pigs, the spot price increase is less than expected. It is advisable to short on rallies, but since the current futures market position is high, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21]

Report Overview - This is the agricultural product morning report of Wukuang Futures on November 3, 2025, covering protein meals, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, expect short - term price increases following import costs, with a mid - term strategy of selling on rebounds due to the expected global soybean supply surplus [5] - For oils, suggest a bearish view in the short - term until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] - For sugar, recommend looking for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens due to limited upward space for raw sugar [13] - For cotton, expect limited upward space for cotton prices in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [16] - For eggs, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] - For pigs, suggest a strategy of selling on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20] Summary by Category Protein Meals Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose as the market expected China to buy a large amount of US soybeans. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the East China price at 2950 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was average, and pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the main Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level. US officials said China will buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans after the APEC talks [3] Strategy Viewpoints - Import costs will mainly trade in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the inventory - reduction season approaches, there is some support. Expect short - term price increases following import costs, a rebound in the crushing margin, and an increase in vessel bookings. In the mid - term, the expected global soybean supply surplus remains unchanged, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [5] Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 30 increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63% compared with the same period last month. As of the week of October 26, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% to 155,500 tons. China and Canada agreed to promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues [7] Strategy Viewpoints - The high - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. Palm oil's inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. Before Malaysian palm oil exports improve, maintain a bearish view, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to trade sideways. The closing price of the January contract was 5483 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of processed sugar remained unchanged. In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 34.037 million tons, a sugar production of 2.484 million tons, and an increase in the sugar - making ratio [11][12] Strategy Viewpoints - Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the overseas market is still weak. Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season limits the upward space for raw sugar. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [13] Cotton Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures traded in a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. As of the week of October 31, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.6%. On November 1, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.31 yuan/kg [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Due to weak demand during the peak consumption season this year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expected high - yield in the new year, and the selling hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in the new cotton purchase price has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space for cotton prices in the short - term is limited [16] Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable, with some local decreases. The laying hen inventory decreased slightly, but the supply of medium and small - sized eggs was still sufficient. The demand side was supported by increased stocking due to the cooling weather and upcoming Double Eleven preparations [17] Strategy Viewpoints - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in inventory. With increased stocking sentiment after the cooling, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With upcoming consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - festival preparations, the market sentiment is improving. However, due to the high premium in the futures market and the expected high supply, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly declined. Some large - scale breeding groups increased their pig sales at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price drop. The demand increase was insufficient, and the supply still exceeded demand [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Large - scale breeding groups have a high plan completion rate, but the spot price increase was less than expected due to difficulties in selling pork. There is a phenomenon of inventory postponement, and the market is under high - supply pressure. The futures market has priced in the future supply pressure in advance. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the import of US soybeans may slow down the domestic de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. - For sugar, the tightening of syrup and premix import controls drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound, and it is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2910 yuan/ton, the transaction volume at 145,000 tons, and the delivery volume at 196,400 tons. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days last week. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week. As of last Thursday, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36%, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a neutral level [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans is mainly oscillating. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the crushing profit is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, the export volume from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% - 16.2%, the export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4%, and the export volume from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4%. SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, the production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71%, and the production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63%. The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market, and there are rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.4% compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants were stable. The customs has tightened the import control of Thai syrup and premix, with the number of suspended enterprises increasing from 35 to 44, and the scope of suspension expanding [9]. - **Strategy**: The tightening of import controls drives the rebound of sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% compared with the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton increased slightly, and the basis was 1243 yuan/ton. The China - US economic and trade teams reached some consensus in the negotiations, including the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" by the US on Chinese goods [12]. - **Strategy**: The demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.88 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were average. It is expected that the national egg prices will mostly remain stable and a few areas may have narrow adjustments today [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends with more price - falling areas. As the end of the month approaches, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is not high, but the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing decreases after the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will be stable with a weak trend today [18]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - LPG is in a low - valuation operation period under a weak fundamental situation. Due to the盘面's downward pricing of import costs, the basis has widened passively, and the risk of chasing short positions is high. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short - allocate [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents Fundamental Situation - On October 9, 2025, after the holiday, the LPG futures opened significantly lower and continued to be under pressure during the session. The main contract fell by 5.61% at the morning close [6]. - On September 30, Saudi Aramco announced the October CP. Propane was at $49/ton, a decrease of $25/ton from the previous month, and butane was at $475/ton, a decrease of $15/ton from the previous month. During the holiday, the November CP swap contract continued to decline, with the propane contract dropping from $520/ton on September 30 to $476/ton on October 8 [6]. - The domestic refinery operating rate remains relatively high, and the external supply of LPG is relatively abundant. However, the domestic civil gas spot was relatively stable during the holiday, so domestic factors were not the main cause of the futures price decline [6]. - On the supply side, the production of domestic refineries and value - added enterprises is in a seasonal improvement period, and the overseas associated gas production cycle continues. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Azerbaijan are in the OPEC+ production - increasing countries, and the LPG shipments of these three countries are strongly correlated with crude oil shipments, providing room for the环比 increase in associated gas supply [6]. - On the demand side, the consumption of civil gas is shrinking year by year, there are no short - term bright spots in chemical demand, and the seasonal demand for blending oil is weakening, facing the pressure of a peak season without a boom [6]. - After the overseas market closed this round, the ratio of Far - East LPG to naphtha has returned to the annual high and is still at the optimal level in the same period in recent years, which is expected to drive chemical demand to some extent in the later stage, but the supply - side bearishness is difficult to reverse [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by Trump's signal of trade talks, the US market rose significantly. After a sharp emotional decline, the domestic market rebounded. It is expected that the overall impact on import costs will be limited under the offset of the rising US market. MO1 is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of the August supply - demand report this week and the subsequent import situation of Argentine soybean meal [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - This week, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the production areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean pressure reduction in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy [7]. Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The far - month trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly this week [7][8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. The speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides a large amount of data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures contracts in different regions, as well as the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the import soybean crushing profit and other price - related data [6][7].

Report Information - Report Title: LPG Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Some plant restarts have driven the PDH operating rate up to around 73%, and there are still new production plans in August, with a marginal improvement in chemical demand [3]. - The sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises is 101%, a 1-percentage-point increase from the previous period, indicating a short-term relief of shipment pressure [3]. - Port inventories have increased to 321.6 million tons (+8.2 million tons), reaching a new high for the year, with significant supply pressure [3]. - The official August CP price for propane is $520 per ton ($55 lower than the previous period), and the landed cost is suppressing domestic prices [3]. - During the off-season, combustion demand is weak. The increase in chemical demand cannot offset the pressure of high inventories. Coupled with the decline in import costs, LPG will continue its volatile and weak pattern [4]. Data Charts - The content includes multiple data charts, including the settlement price of propane's Far East landed price FEI: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of FEI to Brent (daily), PDH profit/operating rate, the seasonal ratio of FEI to MOPJ spread (daily), FEI discount, Middle East offshore discount (daily), the settlement price of propane's US offshore price: M1 (daily), the seasonal ratio of MB to WTI (daily), CP M1 - MB M1, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, US propane import volume (weekly seasonal), US propane inventory (weekly seasonal), and US propane export volume (weekly seasonal) [5][9][12][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The LPG market is mainly in a state of shock, with the basis and monthly spreads slightly weakening. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 1 to July 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of South China LPG was 4630 on July 1 and 4620 on July 6, with a daily change of 0. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] Market Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4486. FEI and CP continued to decline, and the CP discount dropped significantly. PP fluctuated, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved. The PG disk oscillated, and the monthly spread oscillated, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 93. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Outlook - The overall disk is mainly in a state of shock. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spreads have also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost has increased, and the external market price has risen slightly. The supply and demand situation shows that the arrival volume has increased this week, chemical demand has decreased, and combustion demand is average. The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in Shandong and East China may rise supported by chemical demand, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Demand Situation - The PDH operating rate has decreased to 60.87% (-3.12 pct), but it is expected to increase in the future. Next week, Xintai Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase III are expected to resume operation, and some operating enterprises will gradually increase their loads. Many PDH plants are expected to restart at the end of July. The gasoline terminal demand is poor, and MTBE is weakly sorted. The combustion demand is weak [1] Inventory and Supply - The port inventory has increased by 6.92%, and the factory inventory is basically flat with regional differentiation. East China has accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China has a weak supply - demand situation and the factory has reduced inventory. The external supply has decreased, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall PG market is in a weak and volatile state, with small changes in the basis (349), a slight strengthening of the 8 - 9 month spread (97), and the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost has dropped significantly, the FEI offshore premium has declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival premium has strengthened. The overseas market month spread has weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The domestic - foreign price difference has strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Fundamentally, domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates have dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct) with improved profits, and it is expected that PDH operating rates will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remains flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. - Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas declined (4529), with an average overall trading atmosphere. Terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]. - Currently, prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Although chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 2 - 8, 2025, South China LPG decreased from 4690 to 4630, East China LPG decreased from 4582 to 4494, and Shandong LPG remained at 4590 on July 8. Propane CFR South China had some fluctuations, and propane CIF Japan increased from 517 to 551. MB propane spot increased from 73 to 75, and CP forecast contract price increased from 556 to 561. The paper import profit showed a downward trend, and the main contract basis decreased by 16 on July 8 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 08 - 09 spread of PG was 96 at one point and then the 8 - 9 spread strengthened slightly to 97. PG - CP reached 22.5 (+26.5), FEI - CP reached - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Industry Operation - **PDH**: The PDH operating rate dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct), and profits improved. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future [1]. - **Alkylation**: The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. Regional Market Analysis - **Shandong**: Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose to 4610. With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate [1]. - **East China**: East China civil gas declined to 4529. The overall trading atmosphere was average, and terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand [1]. - **South China**: South China civil gas fluctuated downward to 4660 mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].