2025.11. 20 本文字数：1478，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（20日）凌晨，美联储公布今年10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。 纪要显示，美联储官员就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员认为通胀下降的进展 已陷入停滞，可能对继续宽松持谨慎的观点。 截至记者发稿时，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，12月10日降息概率跌至32.8%，较1个 月前的超90%大幅回落。 分歧巨大 官员们在会议中积极寻求折中方案：既要应对数据缺失的问题，又要权衡通胀上升与就业市场下滑的 双重风险，甚至警惕若市场对人工智能相关投资 "重新评估"，可能引发股市无序下跌的情况。 美联储就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员担忧通胀下降的进展。 许多美联储官 员明确表示，希望美联储在12月维持利率稳定。这些官员称，进一步降息可能会增加高通胀黏性的 风险，还可能被误解为美联储对2%通胀目标的承诺不足。 与此同时，"多数"官员表示，利率可能会随着时间推移走低，但其中 "多位"官员称，他们不一定认为 12月降息是合适的。部分官员表示将等待数据出炉后再决定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, clarifying misconceptions about the Fed's inflation target and its monetary policy framework, particularly the abandonment of the average inflation targeting approach established in 2020 [1][5][15]. Summary by Sections Economic Conditions - Powell highlighted the recovery of the labor market post-pandemic, noting a decline in job growth to an average of 35,000 per month, significantly lower than the 168,000 per month in 2024 [1][3]. - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, but labor supply is shrinking, influenced by changes in immigration policy [1][3]. - Economic growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending also decreasing [1][3]. Inflation Insights - The total PCE index increased by 2.6% over the past 12 months, while core PCE rose by 2.9%, with a 1.1% rebound in commodity prices [3][5]. - Powell emphasized the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, stating that current policy rates are 100 basis points lower than a year ago but still restrictive [3][5]. Policy Framework Update - Powell announced a shift in the monetary policy framework, moving away from the flexible average inflation target established in 2020, which allowed for periods of inflation below 2% to be compensated by higher inflation later [5][15]. - The new framework directly targets a 2% inflation rate annually, removing the compensatory mechanism due to the challenges posed by high inflation during the pandemic [5][15]. - Powell reiterated that the 2% target remains a cornerstone for price stability and supports flexible economic decision-making [5][15]. Miscommunication and Market Reaction - A misleading screenshot circulated on social media, suggesting that the Fed had completely abandoned the 2% inflation target, leading to widespread panic and speculation about a potential dollar collapse [5][7]. - The misinformation gained traction, particularly in the cryptocurrency community, with many interpreting it as a bullish signal for Bitcoin [7][9]. - Following Powell's speech, the stock market initially dropped by 0.5% but rebounded the next day, indicating a mixed market reaction to the news [7][9]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The event highlighted the importance of accurate information dissemination in the digital age, as the rapid spread of misinformation can significantly impact market confidence [9][20]. - Powell's commitment to a transparent review of the Fed's framework every five years aims to maintain clarity and stability in monetary policy [9][20]. - Overall, the adjustments made by the Fed are seen as a response to lessons learned from the pandemic, with a focus on maintaining price stability and avoiding prolonged high inflation [20].

（文章来源：第一财经） 日本央行行长植田和男表示，将审慎研究各项数据后决定货币政策；已告知日本首相高市早苗，日本央 行正在调整货币支持力度，以稳定实现2%的通胀目标；与日本首相高市早苗讨论了外汇问题，但对细 节内容不予置评。 ...

美联储，降息大消息 11月17日晚间，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊表示，美联储在进一步降息时应谨慎行事，以免削弱其抗通胀的努力。他重申，随着利率接近中性水平，决 策者需要在行动上"缓步前行"。 杰斐逊说，在2025年迄今为止两次降息25个基点之后，美联储当前的政策立场"仍然具有一定限制性，但已经更接近中性水平"。 杰斐逊的观点具有一定的风向标意义，因为他的立场通常与美联储主席鲍威尔高（301251）度一致。 他指出，实现美联储2%的通胀目标的工作似乎已经停滞，这可能反映了关税的影响。 在谈到政策前景时，杰斐逊表示，他将以数据为指引，在每一次议息会议上逐次作出决定。 18日凌晨，美联储理事沃勒重申，美联储应该在12月会议上再次降息，理由是美国劳动力市场疲软以及货币政策在伤害中低收入消费者。 "由于基本通胀接近联邦公开市场委员会的目标且有证据显示劳动力市场疲软，我支持在12月会议上再次将政策利率降低25个基点。本周晚些时候的9月就 业报告或未来几周的任何其他数据，都不太可能改变我的观点。"沃勒说。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为42.9%，维持利率不变的概率为57.1%。 伯克希尔重仓买 ...

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, influenced by government shutdowns and inflation concerns, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about supporting a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [3][5]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks of prioritizing inflation stability over employment [5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are currently four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, with concerns about the current interest rate being closer to neutral rather than overly tight [6]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed unease about a potential rate cut due to the lack of official data caused by the government shutdown, warning against premature easing in the face of persistent inflation [6]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate given the uncertainty [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to 44%, indicating a diminishing likelihood of further easing unless significant economic changes occur [7]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, reflecting the internal divisions and inflationary pressures [8].

因美联储官员发表鹰派言论，打压12月降息预期，现货黄金、现货白银周五回吐早前涨幅，双双跳水 了！ 而就在24小时内，现货黄金曾站上4210美元/盎司，一日内黄金狂泻180美元，日内跌幅超过3%。 截至记者发稿，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司，日内跌2.13%。 （原标题：美联储官员发表鹰派言论 黄金、白银大跳水） 同时，现货白银日内大跌超4%，失守51美元/盎司，现报50.517美元/盎司。 【导读】现货黄金、现货白银大跳水，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司 美联储12月维持利率不变概率升至54.2% 11月15日凌晨，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司，最低报4031.82美元/盎司。 当地时间周五，美联储洛根表示她很难支持12月再次降息。洛根称："当我展望12月会议时，我认为很 难支持再次降息，除非我们有令人信服的证据表明通胀下降的速度确实快于我的预期，或者我们看到劳 动力市场不只是逐渐降温。通过降息向劳动力市场提供更多预防性保障并不合适。" 此前洛根曾支持9月降息，但认为10月本倾向于按兵不动。因为她担心通胀过高，趋向上升，要达到美 联储的2%目标需要太长时间。 美联储卡什卡利此前表示，并不支持美联储上 ...

【导读】现货黄金、现货白银大跳水，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司 中国基金报张舟 因美联储官员发表鹰派言论，打压12月降息预期，现货黄金、现货白银周五回吐早前涨幅，双双跳水了！ 11月15日凌晨，现货黄金失守4040美元/盎司，最低报4031.82美元/盎司。 而就在24小时内，现货黄金曾站上4210美元/盎司，一日内黄金狂泻180美元，日内跌幅超过3%。 同时，现货白银日内大跌超4%，失守51美元/盎司，现报50.517美元/盎司。 截至记者发稿，现货黄金报4082.159美元/盎司，日内跌2.13%。 美联储12月维持利率不变概率升至54.2% 消息面上，美联储官员对政策前景的表态，让市场对美联储可能不会在下一次会议上降息的担忧日益加剧。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月维持利率不变的概率大幅攀升，目前已经升至50%以上，达54.2%。 而12月份降息25个基点的概率已从一个月前的94.4%持续下降，降至45.8%。 10 12月 31 12月 96.1925 ZQZ5 60,131 204,411 2025 2025 Target Rate Probabilities for 10 12月 2025 ...

日韩股市大跌 11月14日，亚太股市主要股指集体低开。其中日经225指数跌1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数跌2.74%。 A股方面，早盘震荡分化，截至午盘，沪指跌0.16%，深成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌1.74%。沪深两市半日 成交额1.23万亿，较上个交易日缩量257亿。全市场超2800只个股上涨。 板块方面，海南、燃气、医药、福建等板块涨幅居前，存储芯片、CPO等板块跌幅居前。 具体来看，福建板块持续拉升，平潭发展（000592）、中国武夷（000797）等10余股涨停。海南板块快 速走强，海马汽车（000572）11天7板。流感概念股延续强势，金迪克5天3板，众生药业（002317）走 出3天2板。银行板块逆势上扬，工行、农行再创历史新高。 零售板块短线拉升，东百集团（600693）8天6板，家家悦（603708）、国光连锁（605188）、中百集团 （000759）、三江购物（601116）、汇嘉时代（603101）等纷纷走高。消息面上，国家统计局发布的数 据显示，10月份，社会消费品零售总额为46291亿元，同比增长2.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额42036亿元，增长4.0%。1—10月份，社 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.3% and expanded its intraday decline to 2%, with SoftBank dropping 9% [1] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin falling to $98,990.7, a nearly 3% drop in 24 hours, and Ethereum dropping nearly 6% to around $3,200 [1] - The primary reason for the market sell-off is attributed to a collective hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasized the importance of maintaining the 2% inflation target, indicating it is too early to decide on interest rate cuts [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also supported maintaining stable interest rates to apply pressure on inflation [2] - The resignation of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, prompting a collective response from other officials [2][3] Group 3 - Chinese securities firms noted that monthly financial data indicates a continued shift of household deposits away from banks, which is a positive signal for the market [4] - South Korea's finance minister announced measures to stabilize the currency market amid concerns over the depreciation of the Korean won [4] - Japan's Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, indicated a shift in fiscal policy focus towards increasing government spending rather than improving public finances, which may lead to economic stimulus measures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the Asia-Pacific markets is primarily attributed to a collective hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials, which has raised concerns about future interest rate policies and market stability [2] Group 1: Market Reactions - On November 14, the Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.3%, while the Seoul Composite Index fell by 2.6%, with the Nikkei's intraday decline expanding to 2% and SoftBank dropping by 9% [1] - Cryptocurrencies also experienced a sharp decline, with Bitcoin falling to $98,990.7, a nearly 3% drop in 24 hours, Ethereum dropping close to 6% to around $3,200, and Dogecoin decreasing by nearly 4% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Several Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasized the importance of maintaining the 2% inflation target, indicating that it is too early to decide on potential interest rate cuts in December [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also supported a cautious approach to rate cuts, highlighting that current inflation remains above the Fed's target [2][3] Group 3: Regional Responses - The South Korean Finance Minister announced plans to stabilize the currency market amid concerns over the depreciation of the won, indicating a need to address foreign exchange supply and demand imbalances [5] - In Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed a shift in fiscal policy goals, suggesting a focus on increasing government spending rather than solely improving public finances, which may lead to potential tax cuts in the future [5] Group 4: Market Insights - China Galaxy Securities noted that monthly financial data indicates a continued trend of residents moving deposits, which could signal a positive market effect worth monitoring [4]