Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The main reasons were the continuous decline in safe - haven demand, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict (although there were still uncertainties), and the "dampening" of the September interest - rate cut expectation by three Fed officials before Powell's speech. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, the labor market remained weak, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields were strong. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and volatile in the short term. In the medium and long term, the rising risk of economic recession may force the Fed to cut interest rates, and the precious metals' long - term upward trend remains due to the "de - dollarization" process. The Fed's Powell may cool down the interest - rate cut expectation at the global central bank annual meeting, and investors are advised to manage risks in advance [5]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, many Fed officials still believed that they were not ready to change their economic outlook before seeing more data. The September interest - rate cut was not certain. Powell at the global central bank annual meeting might suppress the current aggressive interest - rate cut expectation in the market. Technically, London gold returned to the lower edge of the triangular pattern, and there was a risk of a short - term downward break, with an expected trend of falling first and then rising [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Safe - Haven Attribute - There were still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the risk of geopolitical conflict remained. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia's large - scale attacks in multiple regions of Ukraine overnight showed that Moscow was avoiding negotiations to end the war [1]. - The Trump trade war entered a new stage. White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order, and the truce period of China - US tariffs was extended by another 90 days [1]. 2. Monetary Attribute - This week, several Fed officials "dampened" the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, and the labor market remained weak. The Fed meeting minutes showed that only two policymakers supported an interest - rate cut at the July meeting. US retail sales in July increased strongly, and wholesale prices jumped, adding uncertainties to the Fed's interest - rate cut roadmap [2]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, there were still differences within the Fed. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance in their downward movement and were strong [2]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offset some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, promoted the central bank's gold - buying demand to remain at a high level through the "de - dollarization" strategy [2]. - The World Silver Association expected that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 would narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds continued to be reduced; the net long positions of domestic Shanghai gold futures companies at a high level were continuously reduced, and the net long positions of Shanghai silver were slightly increased at a low level; the world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF ended their long - term downward trend and slowly increased their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No relevant content provided. 6. Strategy - Short - term: Weak and volatile. - Medium - term: High - level volatility. - Long - term: Step - by - step upward [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Shanghai gold main contract: Support at 760 - 765, resistance at 780 - 785. - Shanghai silver main contract: Support at 9000 - 9030, resistance at 9400 - 9430 [5]. 8. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - In June 2014, the Fed kept the interest rate policy unchanged, but the updated dot - plot suggested a significant reduction in the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year, from three to one [7]. - In July 2014, the Fed continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in inflation reduction, and mentioned that interest - rate cuts might be an option in September [7]. - In September 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the Fed's benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in 2025 and 2026 [7]. - In November 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation" [8][9]. - In December 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the new dot - plot showed that policymakers expected only two 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025 [9]. - In January 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since starting the interest - rate cut cycle in September 2014, and the policy statement removed the expression about "progress in inflation towards the target" [9]. - In March 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the balance - sheet reduction rhythm from April 1, and expected two interest - rate cuts this year, but the number of those who expected no interest - rate cuts increased [9]. - In May 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, and the FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation both increased [9]. - In June 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, expected a slowdown in economic growth this year, an increase in the unemployment rate and inflation, and a slight slowdown in the interest - rate cut pace [9]. 9. Precious Metals Commonly Used Database (1) Monetary Attribute - Multiple aspects of US economic data were presented, including inflation (CPI, PCE, etc.), economic growth (GDP), employment (unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, etc.), real estate (housing market index, new home sales, etc.), consumption (retailer sales, personal consumption expenditure, etc.), industry (industrial production index, durable goods orders, etc.), trade (trade balance), economic leading indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index, etc.), and key indicators (US Treasury yields, US dollar index, etc.). Also, the Fed's monetary policy tracking data was provided [11][15][21][26][35][46][47][55][59][68]. (2) Safe - Haven Attribute - The volatility of the US stock market was presented, specifically the relationship between the S&P 500 index and the volatility index (VIX) [69][71]. (3) Commodity Attribute - The trends of the offshore RMB, CRB commodity index, and their relationships with precious metals were presented, including the relationship between the CRB commodity price index, Shanghai gold main contract closing price, and offshore RMB exchange rate, as well as the relationship between the US dollar against the offshore RMB and the China - US ten - year Treasury yield spread [72][73]. (4) Capital Flow - The net positions of CFTC managed funds and the positions of gold and silver ETFs were presented [74][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the mild increase in U.S. inflation for July has preserved the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, impacting the dollar and supporting precious metal prices [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1% [3]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged to 93.4%, which is expected to weaken the dollar's attractiveness and support precious metal prices [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump has pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut rates and threatened legal action, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin advocates for a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - There are mixed views among officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and unemployment balance, which may create policy uncertainty [3]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile pattern in the short term, with COMEX gold likely to find support around $3,350 and trade near $3,400 [4]. - COMEX silver should be monitored for support at the $37 level, with potential opportunities remaining in the context of ongoing rate cut expectations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by U.S. tariff policies and rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, rather than supply and demand dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies and Economic Data - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has classified 1 kg and 100 oz gold bars under taxable codes, effective August 7, leading to significant impacts on the global gold refining center in Switzerland, with an estimated additional tariff cost of about $24 billion [1]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls and a drop in ISM manufacturing PMI to a nine-month low, has raised concerns about economic slowdown, further supporting gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks continued to favor gold, with a net increase of 22 tons in official gold reserves in June, marking the third consecutive month of slight increases [2]. - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 2,300.41 tons by the end of July, marking a continuous nine-month increase [2]. Group 3: ETF Holdings and Market Sentiment - SPDR Gold ETF holdings reached 959.64 tons, the highest since September 2022, indicating a growing trend in gold investment [3]. - Domestic gold ETF holdings in China reached 199.505 tons by June 30, with a significant increase of 84.771 tons in the first half of the year [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold prices remains strong, with expectations of continued upward movement due to economic weakness and dovish Federal Reserve policies [4]. - The potential meeting between Trump and Putin in mid-August could impact gold prices, especially if there are substantial developments in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [4].

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced range-bound fluctuations, ultimately closing up 0.02% at 98.727 after a brief dip following the release of US services PMI data [2][3] - Spot gold saw a V-shaped reversal, reaching a peak of $3390 per ounce before closing up 0.22% at $3380.86, marking a near two-week high [2][3] - Spot silver rose for the third consecutive day, closing up 1.06% at $37.81 per ounce [2][3] Economic Indicators - The US trade balance recorded a deficit of $60.2 billion in June, the smallest since September 2023, while July's services PMI and new orders index fell short of expectations, indicating a potential softening in domestic demand [3] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with Russia considering only a partial ceasefire and the US planning to sanction Russian energy buyers, which could exacerbate global supply chain risks [4] Trade Policy Developments - President Trump announced plans to implement tariffs on pharmaceuticals up to 250% and significantly increased tariffs on India, while threatening a 35% tariff on the EU, intensifying trade tensions [3] Investment Strategies - The multiple tariff threats are expected to elevate inflation expectations, reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal. A short-term upward movement in gold requires breaking through the resistance level around $3450, while maintaining support around $3350 [5] - Silver faces pressure from industrial demand concerns, with a rebound likely to encounter resistance near $38, while support around $37 could provide a base for potential gains [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the growing interest in precious metal trading, particularly in the context of global economic uncertainty, highlighting their dual commodity and financial attributes [1] - Investors are advised to prepare adequately before engaging in precious metal trading by understanding market dynamics, selecting appropriate trading platforms, and formulating sound investment strategies [3] Group 2 - Precious metal trading is categorized into four main types: spot, futures, ETFs, and online platform trading, with a detailed operational process outlined for online trading [4] - The company Jinsheng Precious Metals is positioned as an industry benchmark, emphasizing its compliance, safety, and efficiency through a comprehensive service system [5] - Jinsheng employs SSL encryption and multi-layer firewalls for technical security, ensuring rapid order execution and supporting automated trading systems for quantitative investors [6] Group 3 - The current market trends for 2025 indicate three key characteristics: gold driven by consumption upgrades and industrial applications, silver demand surging due to the photovoltaic industry, and platinum demand increasing due to the hydrogen revolution [7] - Jinsheng Precious Metals has introduced customized physical gold services and platinum contracts to cater to diverse investor needs and leverage market opportunities [7] Group 4 - The article suggests risk control measures such as diversifying asset allocation, dynamic hedging using futures, and ensuring compliance with regulations to mitigate market volatility risks [8] - Jinsheng Precious Metals aims to create a secure and efficient trading ecosystem for both novice and experienced investors, leveraging its regulatory backing and technological innovations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No data provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remaining. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.07%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, there are risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Hedging Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, and the EU has threatened to take counter - measures against US tariffs. Trump said he does not plan to fire Powell, which has alleviated market concerns. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US inflation in June remained resilient, but the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. Currently, the market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [4] - **Capital and Inventory**: In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 67132.36 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61, the US dollar index is 98.32, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.53, etc. [7] - **Hedging Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, and the VIX index is 17.14. [10] - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index is 303.15, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1842. [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times. [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions among major global economies are heightening market caution, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold, with silver prices showing strong short-term performance ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI data release [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices recovered to above $38.30, driven by trade tensions and anticipation of U.S. inflation data [1] - The market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations of an increase in overall inflation rate from 2.4% to 2.7% and core inflation from 2.8% to 3.0% [2] - The release of inflation data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influencing silver prices [2] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot silver reached a high of $39.10, the highest level since September 2011, before stabilizing around $38.28 [2] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to concerns over supply and rapid growth in industrial demand [2] - Gold's sustained increase over the past 18 months has led investors to seek more cost-effective alternatives, boosting silver's appeal [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's recent price action shows a bearish reversal pattern, with the daily RSI remaining high and potential resistance at $39 [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60 and $39.00 [3]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that MP Materials will receive significant investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, which is expected to enhance the domestic production capacity of rare earth magnets and potentially raise the price ceiling for praseodymium and neodymium products [4][9] - Short-term impacts on the industry are expected to be limited due to the time required for MP Materials' expansion, with the new magnet manufacturing facility projected to be operational by 2028 [5] - The report indicates that the price floor set by the U.S. government for praseodymium and neodymium products is significantly higher than current domestic prices, suggesting a potential upward shift in domestic pricing [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices have declined due to tariff disturbances and seasonal demand weakness, with domestic consumption showing a slight increase as prices fall [6][14] - Aluminum prices have also decreased, influenced by external market conditions and reduced demand from the aluminum rod and plate sectors [20][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases attributed to renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic data [7][26] Minor Metals - The report notes stability in antimony prices, with a prevailing bullish sentiment despite limited market transactions [8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a fundamental recovery, with prices for light rare earths increasing due to the positive sentiment from MP Materials' investment [9][42] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will stabilize in the near term, with a projected trading range of 77,500 to 79,000 CNY/ton [15] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 20,300 to 21,000 CNY/ton [21] - Gold and silver prices are predicted to continue their wide-ranging adjustments, with gold expected to trade between 750 to 800 CNY/gram [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have significantly rebounded due to expectations of an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, driven by Trump's "big and beautiful" legislation [1] - The Senate has narrowly passed a tax and spending bill, which is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, depending on the version [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are also contributing factors to the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a three-year low of 96.37 [1][2] Group 2 - Market participants are divided on the outlook for interest rate cuts, with some believing that weak economic data and dovish Fed comments increase the likelihood of early cuts, while others point to a strong job market and inflation risks delaying cuts [2] - Ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks are expected to maintain gold's safe-haven appeal, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated as the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches [2] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data on July 15 will be crucial in assessing inflation trends and could influence market expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher if core CPI growth is weaker than expected [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that geopolitical risks and trade frictions are driving the rise in gold and silver prices, with both metals reaching historical highs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Gold prices experienced a volatile trend, reaching a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on COMEX and 836.30 yuan per gram on the Shanghai market, driven by tariffs, interest rate cut expectations, and ongoing Middle East conflicts [1] - Silver outperformed, with COMEX silver breaking $37, a thirteen-year high, and Shanghai silver touching 9075 yuan per kilogram, supported by geopolitical risks, surging photovoltaic installations, and a projected supply gap of 117 million ounces [1] Group 2 - In the second half of 2025, the precious metals market is expected to show a pattern of "short-term fluctuations and long-term positivity," with the Federal Reserve likely to implement two more interest rate cuts [2] - Gold is highlighted as a core safe-haven asset, benefiting from weakened dollar credit and global economic uncertainty, while silver is driven by both financial and industrial demand, particularly from the expanding photovoltaic sector [2] - The operational strategy suggests maintaining a bullish stance on precious metals, with COMEX gold likely to fluctuate between $3200 and $3600 per ounce, and COMEX silver targeting $38 to $40 per ounce [2]