Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the import volume of tin from Myanmar has remained below the warning line of 10,000 tons for several months, leading to expectations of tight supply which may support tin prices [10][21] - Nickel prices have increased week-on-week, driven by traders' replenishment needs, with LME nickel spot settlement price reported at $15,120 per ton, up 0.6% from June 27 [21] - Cobalt prices have also risen, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 251,800 yuan per ton, up 0.6% from June 27, although downstream demand has not shown significant improvement [25][32] - The report notes a decrease in antimony ingot prices and production, with domestic antimony ingot average price at 192,500 yuan per ton, down 2.53% from June 26 [33][36] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, with the average market price at 62,300 yuan per ton, up 1.81% from June 27, but the market is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern [41][46] Summary by Sections Nickel Industry - Nickel prices have risen due to replenishment demand from traders, with LME nickel total inventory decreasing by 0.89% [21] - Domestic production costs for nickel smelters have increased significantly due to high CIF prices of Philippine nickel ore [21] - The report indicates that the suspension of production lines by Qingshan Holding Group may further impact local nickel mining in Indonesia [13][24] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices have increased, supported by the extension of a temporary export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for about 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [25][32] - Despite the price increase, downstream demand remains weak, with most manufacturers maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy [25][32] Antimony Industry - Antimony ingot prices have decreased, with a significant drop in production expected in July due to ongoing supply tightness [33][36] - The report suggests that domestic raw material supply remains tight, which may support future antimony prices [36] Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a slight increase, but the market is still characterized by oversupply, with inventory pressures not effectively alleviated [41][46] - The report anticipates that lithium prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [41][46] Tin Industry - The report indicates that the import volume of tin from Myanmar is below the warning line, leading to expectations of tight supply which may support tin prices [10][21] - The overall supply situation is expected to remain tight due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mining operations [10][16] Rare Earth Industry - Following the recent US-China trade negotiations, China has partially relaxed its export controls on rare earths, which may alleviate some supply pressures for Western companies [15][19] - The report notes that the rare earth market is experiencing price increases driven by demand from major manufacturers, although actual transaction volumes remain low [9][15]

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt remains stable at 236,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +0% [3] - The price of carbon fiber is 83.8 CNY/kg, also unchanged, with a gross profit of -8.56 CNY/kg [3] - Beryllium prices are stable this week [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The price of Li2O 5% lithium concentrate at the Chinese port is 540 USD/ton, down by -0.92% week-on-week [4] - The prices of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide, and electric carbon are 59,800 CNY/ton, 60,600 CNY/ton, and 60,600 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -0.1%, +1.21%, and -2.3% [4] - The price of cobalt sulfate is 47,700 CNY/ton, unchanged [4] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 30,300 CNY/ton and 104,800 CNY/ton, with changes of +0% and -0.7% respectively [4] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 444.11 CNY/kg, up by +0.8% [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 4.25 USD/kg, down by -0.7% [5] - The price of EVA is 10,450 CNY/ton, unchanged, remaining at a high level since 2013 [5] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/square meter, unchanged [5] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - The prices of zirconium-related materials are as follows: zirconium oxychloride at 14,750 CNY/ton, sponge zircon at 155 CNY/kg, hafnium oxide at 9,000 CNY/kg, zirconium silicate at 14,225 CNY/ton, and zircon sand at 14,012.5 CNY/ton, with various week-on-week changes [6] - The uranium price for May 2025 is 57.31 USD/pound, up by +8.8% [6] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt oxide is 186,500 CNY/ton, unchanged, while lithium cobalt oxide is priced at 175.0 CNY/kg, also unchanged [7] - The price of silicon carbide is 5,600.00 CNY/ton, unchanged [7] - The prices of high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,865.00 CNY/kg, 2,425.00 CNY/kg, and 2,525.00 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.5%, +0%, and +0% [7] - The price of germanium dioxide is 9,900 CNY/kg, unchanged, with 50% used for optical fibers and 15% for electronic and solar devices; high-purity gallium is primarily used in semiconductors [7]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-month high, driven by speculative buying after breaking technical levels, declining inventory, and production halts at a major mine in Congo [1][3] - As of June 5, LME three-month copper closed at $9,739.50 per ton, up $118 or 1.23%, with an intraday high of $9,809.50, marking the highest level since March 31 [1][2] - LME copper inventory decreased by 3,350 tons or 2.37% to 138,000 tons, the lowest in nearly a year, with a nearly 50% decline year-to-date [4][5] Group 2 - The increase in copper prices was supported by concerns over the recent production halt at the Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [6] - COMEX copper for July rose 0.89% to $4.93 per pound, with a premium of $1,129 over LME prices [4] - The U.S. has raised tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has reignited concerns over potential new tariffs on copper imports, influencing market dynamics [3]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent price trends of various materials in different sectors, highlighting both increases and decreases in prices across the board [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - Electrolytic cobalt price is at 238,000 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week. The ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.93, down 0.7% [2]. - Carbon fiber price remains stable at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of 9.28 CNY/kg [2]. - Beryllium price remains unchanged [2]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The price of Li2O 5% lithium concentrate has reached 560 USD/ton, down 20.90% week-on-week [3]. - Prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide, and electric carbon are 64,500 CNY/ton, 62,700 CNY/ton, and 65,200 CNY/ton, down 1.3%, 1.53%, and 1.1% respectively [3]. - Cobalt sulfate price is at 47,800 CNY/ton, down 1.14% [3]. - Prices for lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are stable at 31,500 CNY/ton and 105,900 CNY/ton respectively [3]. - Neodymium oxide price is at 429.33 CNY/kg, down 1.0% [3]. Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - Photovoltaic-grade polysilicon price is at 4.29 USD/kg, down 0.2% [4]. - EVA price is at 10,900 CNY/ton, down 1.8%, maintaining a high level since 2013 [4]. - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating remains stable at 24.0 CNY/sqm [4]. Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - Prices for zirconium-related materials (zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand) remain unchanged [5]. - Uranium price is at 52.17 USD/lb, up 0.6% [5]. Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of high-purity gallium is at 1,875.00 CNY/kg, down 1.3% [6]. - Prices for germanium dioxide and lithium cobalt oxide remain stable at 9,900 CNY/kg and 175.0 CNY/kg respectively [6]. - Silicon carbide price remains stable at 5,600.00 CNY/ton [6]. Group 6: Other Materials - Platinum price is at 262.00 CNY/g, up 7.8%, while rhodium price is at 1,365.00 CNY/g, down 6.8% [7].

Fixed Income - The new policy for "Science and Technology Innovation Bonds" (科创债) has led to banks, particularly state-owned banks, being the primary issuers, with a total issuance of 115 billion yuan from May 6 to May 16, 2025 [7][8] - The issuers of these bonds are predominantly high-rated central and state-owned enterprises, with AAA-rated bonds accounting for 83.39% of the total issuance [8] - The new policy has relaxed restrictions on the use of funds raised through these bonds, allowing for a broader range of applications, including loans for technology innovation [9] New Consumption - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [11] - The growth in retail sales was driven by essential consumption, with food and daily necessities showing robust growth, while discretionary spending on jewelry and communication devices also increased significantly [12] - Furniture and home appliances saw particularly strong growth, with retail sales increasing by 26.9% and 38.8% respectively [12] Metals and New Materials - The profitability of the gold and copper-aluminum sectors has significantly increased due to rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector has seen a substantial decline in profitability [14] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 147.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.73% and 2.61% respectively [14] - Gold prices have shown a notable increase, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [15][19] Pharmaceuticals - Sanofi's licensing agreement for PD-1/VEGF dual antibody rights outside of China with Pfizer is valued at 1.25 billion USD upfront, with potential milestone payments of up to 4.8 billion USD [26][27] - The agreement is expected to enhance the company's valuation significantly, with a target market value of 59.5 billion yuan (approximately 64.5 billion HKD) [4][29] - Warner Pharmaceuticals is focusing on innovative antidepressants and the replacement of endangered medicinal materials, with a new antidepressant ZG001 showing promise as a fast-acting, non-addictive option [31][34]

证券分析师 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 05 日 金价回调不改长期趋势，铜铝去库 支撑价格 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250428-20250502 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 0.49%，深证成指下跌 0.17%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 65.56 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.386 billion yuan, up 13.71% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.84% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 1.038 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.79% [1] Financial Performance - The average prices of gold and copper in the domestic market increased by 23.8% and 10% respectively in 2024, contributing to the company's performance [2] - The company’s total operating expenses for 2024 were 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with a slight increase in the expense ratio [3] - The company experienced a decrease in gold production by 0.54 tons to 18.35 tons in 2024, while copper production increased by 2,077.28 tons to 82,000 tons [4] Resource Management and Projects - The company enhanced resource security, increasing gold reserves by 30.3 tons and copper reserves by 114,800 tons in 2024 [5] - Key projects are progressing well, with total investment in ongoing projects reaching 1.024 billion yuan [5] - In Q1 2025, the company produced 4.5 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 1.09%, benefiting from rising gold and copper prices [6] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits of 4.83 billion yuan, 5.39 billion yuan, and 5.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42.7%, 11.6%, and 4.8% respectively [6] - A target price of 17.9 yuan is set based on an 18x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a strong buy rating [6]