华创证券指出，尽管美联储"鹰派"降息导致铝价短暂走弱，但全球铝库存仍维持120-125万吨的低位， 安全库存处于较低水平。海外项目因电力问题减产及印尼增量释放缓慢，未来2-3年全球铝供需或维持 紧平衡，库存可能持续低位，对铝价形成支撑。从金融属性看，铜铝比创年内新高，历史铜铝比多在 3.3-3.7之间，意味着铝仍有补涨空间。若美国因缺电导致减产，铝价上涨弹性可能更强。电解铝行业平 均利润约5500元/吨，伴随氧化铝价格下行，行业利润有望维持高位。电解铝企业现金流持续修复，盈 利稳定性提升，且未来资本开支强度较低，红利资产属性逐步凸显。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及有色金属开采、冶炼 及加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数 成分股具有显著的周期性特征，其表现易受全球经济形势、供需关系变化以及金属价格波动的影响。行 业配置主要覆盖铜、铝、铅锌及稀有金属等子领域，集中体现了资源类股票的市场特性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 美联储12月如期降息25BP，为年内连续第三次降息，同时将启动 扩表，本月开始进行400亿美元规模的短债购买。鲍威尔表态比市 场预期偏鸽。近期铜金融属性开始显现，金铜比修复。但市场担忧 日本央行加息，引发铜价短期承压。美国市场的虹吸效应进一 ...

期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月09日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 铜： 市场预计美联储12月鹰派降息，风险资产日间集体下挫，沪铜短期 承压下行。近期铜金融属性开始显现，金铜比修复。美国总统特朗 普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创世使命"的国家级人 工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增长的想象空间。 ...

春哥祝各位平安吉祥，万事如意。 每天中午张春林的午间评论是"春哥午间道"，新来的请大家同步关注一下，每天11：30更新。今天市场继续震荡，沪 指小跌，双创小幅回升，但中位数下跌0.9%左右，超过3800只个股下跌，行情最近三天连续阴跌，很多人有一种钝刀 子割肉的感觉。 但经历过A股长熊的人，对当前的盘面应该有较好的"耐药性"和免疫力，现在的震荡算不上什么，属于正常"充电"阶 段。 短线市场缩量了，所以呈出现涨不上去，跌又跌得不利落的状态，欲罢还休，反复拉锯。 风向标还得看科创50指数，今天上涨1.36%，对昨天小阴线进行了反包，近期科创明显强于主板，主要原因是机器人、 芯片等方向相对表现较好，而今天主板的白酒、消费指数大跌，拖累了主板指数，此消彼长，导致两边分化明显。 明天摩尔线程上市，都说是"大肉签"，其受益概念股和而泰放量涨停，也带动了GPU题材活跃，明天GPU题材到底是 见光死还是继续跃？按当前市场的这个尿性，还是要提防冲高回落。 现在资金太"鸡贼"，预期了你的预期的预期，主打提前量，只能潜伏不能追涨。主板今天白酒和消费板块是重灾区， 白酒指数下跌1.46%，餐饮下跌4.4%，53度飞天茅台散瓶价进一步 ...

白银供应端总体平稳，矿山生产略有减少，但回收量因银价上涨而增加， 预计未来高价位将进一步刺激回收。 工业需求受光伏产业影响显著，尽管光伏用银量因技术进步而下降，但 AI、新能源汽车和数据中心等领域的需求增长带来增量，如每辆新能源 汽车较传统燃油车多消耗约 30 克白银。 当前白银市场现货紧张，主要由于 ETF 大量持有现货锁定流动性，而非 期货逼仓。全球主要 ETF 持有 2.57 万吨白银，伦敦库存仅 2.63 万吨， 导致市场流动性紧张。 白银价格受多种因素影响，不仅是供需关系，还包括金融市场投资活动。 长期来看，白银价格走势跟随黄金，涨幅受商品属性影响，即短缺或过 剩情况决定涨幅大小。 未来几年，光伏和新能源车等领域对白银的需求预计将收窄供需缺口， 但贵金属行情主要由金融属性驱动，全球变局是重要影响因素，预计明 年涨幅约为 30%。 传统上，美债收益率与黄金定价显著负相关，但自 2020 年以来，这一 关系逐渐被打破，需要重新评估美债收益率对黄金定价的影响，并关注 其他可能替代无风险收益率指标的发展趋势。 中美博弈加剧，美元信用削弱，各国央行购入黄金以分散风险，促使更 多资金流入避险资产，如黄金和白银， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the non-ferrous sector experiencing upward fluctuations, particularly highlighted by the performance of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which has seen significant inflows and a year-to-date increase of 70.77% [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 28, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 1.64%, with a peak increase of over 2%, attracting net subscriptions of 900,000 units, amounting to over 13 million yuan [1]. - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF have shown strong performance, with notable increases such as Yahua Group rising over 5% and Huayou Cobalt and Chifeng Jilong Gold increasing over 3% [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Yahua Group announced a lithium salt production capacity of 99,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 tons production line expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [6]. - The exploration project in Songpan County has identified an additional gold resource of 28.24 tons, bringing the total to 81.06 tons, valued at over 76 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts express a positive outlook for the non-ferrous sector, with Citic Securities indicating that the sector is poised for further advancement [6]. - The financial attributes of metals like gold and copper are expected to strengthen due to declining real interest rates and increasing inflation expectations, making them attractive as inflation hedges [8][11]. - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are expected to improve, driven by new demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy, suggesting a bullish trend for these metals [7][13]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a high concentration of key metals, with copper accounting for 33% and gold for 13%, making it a leading choice in the sector [17]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return that outpaces its peers while maintaining a reasonable valuation, as indicated by a PE ratio of 23.74, down 61% from five years ago [19].

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of various economic factors and market conditions on these precious metals [1][3]. Market Performance - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.43% to $4013.7 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.52% to $47.91 per ounce [1]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in October and indicated a halt in balance sheet reduction [3]. - Recent ADP employment data shows signs of improvement in the U.S. labor market [3]. - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has led to a recovery in market risk appetite [3]. Global Demand for Gold - Global gold demand reached a record high in Q3, with central banks net purchasing a total of 220 tons, representing a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter [3]. Fiscal Outlook - The IMF forecasts that the expanding budget deficit will lead to an increasing debt burden ratio for the U.S. [3]. Tax Policy Changes - A new tax policy for investment gold has been introduced, changing the tax chain to "upstream tax refund, downstream full taxation" [3]. Industry Demand - Positive demand outlook in the electronics and photovoltaic sectors [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience fluctuations and adjustments, with upcoming attention on U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI and China's foreign exchange reserves [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery of the real estate market is influenced by five key signals, primarily driven by the overall economy rather than the real estate sector itself [2] - The first signal is the economy emerging from a deflationary period, indicating that economic recovery is essential for the real estate market to rebound [2] - The second signal focuses on residents' income expectations, highlighting that demand issues stem from a lack of confidence in future employment and income rather than just financial constraints [4] Group 2 - The third signal emphasizes urbanization driven by employment, noting that true urbanization is a transformation of living conditions rather than merely expanding city boundaries [5] - The fourth signal discusses land becoming a scarce commodity, warning against artificial expansion of mega-cities and advocating for restrictions on land auctions to address oversupply in the real estate market [7] - The fifth signal pertains to restoring the financial attributes of real estate, which include mortgage financing, asset pricing, and wealth storage, as the decline in investment consumption has significantly impacted property sales [8] Group 3 - The sixth signal identifies the liquidity of the secondary housing market as a leading indicator of real estate trends, suggesting that revitalizing this market could shift expectations and improve the overall market outlook [10]

Group 1 - Silver prices have historically surpassed $50 per ounce, reaching $51 per ounce, marking a nearly 14-year high with a daily increase of over 4% [1] - Year-to-date, silver has shown a remarkable increase of over 70%, outperforming gold, which has risen by 50% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a dual driving force of "financial attributes + industrial demand" [1] Group 2 - The rising gold prices have positively influenced the entire precious metals sector, while the demand for silver in high-tech industries such as renewable energy, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles has seen explosive growth [1] - Silver serves as both a "safe-haven asset" and an "industrial metal," which contributes to its strong performance [1] - Factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risks have collectively propelled silver prices [1] Group 3 - Citigroup has raised its silver price target to $55, indicating a bullish outlook [1] - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term upward trend for silver remains solid, with potential to reach new highs by the end of the year [1] - Investment strategies recommend waiting for price corrections to enter positions at key support levels while managing risks effectively [1]