1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a situation of supply - demand imbalance. The supply side is supported by smelter shutdowns and copper concentrate shortages, while the demand side is significantly suppressed by the off - season. In the context of the game between long and short positions, price increases are restricted by weak demand, and price decreases are limited by cost support. Attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm data on the US dollar, US tariff policies, and the acceptance of current prices by domestic buyers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 6, 2025, the SHFE main contract closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, showing a slight upward trend. The LME 3 - month copper price was reported at 9,707.5 US dollars/ton, continuing the upward trend. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation, and the LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened to 93.15 US dollars/ton, indicating tight near - end supply [2]. - The LME open interest decreased by 1,146 lots to 283,000 lots, with a slight contraction in market trading activity. The SHFE copper inter - month spread BACK structure remained at around 100 yuan/ton, and the import loss widened to 1,600 yuan/ton, stimulating smelters to accelerate exports and increasing short - term liquidity pressure [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - The shortage of copper concentrate has intensified, and domestic smelting capacity is being restored. The cathode copper output of Western Copper increased by 18% year - on - year to 67,400 tons, and the acceptance of the bonded mixed ore project at Tangshan Port may relieve long - term raw material pressure [3]. - The entire copper industry chain has entered the traditional off - season, with generally declining operating rates. The copper rod operating rate in June is expected to drop to 47.11%, and the enameled wire operating rate is expected to drop by 4.5 percentage points to 67.76%. The operating rates of wire and cable and copper strip also weakened. High copper prices have curbed downstream procurement, with demand mainly from rigid needs and long - term contracts. The demand for lithium - ion copper foil is relatively strong [3]. - LME inventory increased by 591 tons to 32,278 tons, COMEX inventory increased to 186,883 short tons, and overseas visible inventory accumulated marginally. SHFE inventory decreased by 5,600 tons to 132,400 tons, with continued but slowed destocking in China. The SMM national social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 149,000 tons compared with last week, showing initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper (premium copper) was 78,970 yuan/ton on June 6, 2025, up 0.65% from the previous day, and the premium decreased by 10% to 135 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 20% to 30 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper remained at - 30 yuan/ton [6]. - The LME (0 - 3) basis was 70 US dollars/ton, down 25.02% from the previous day. The SHFE copper price was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, and the LME copper price was 9,671 US dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [6]. - LME inventory increased by 1.87% to 32,278 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 4.06% to 132,400 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.53% to 187,877 short tons [6]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper inventory reduction limits price decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 77,870 with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 77,90 with a decline of 0.10%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,566 with a decline of 0.31% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 73,407, a decrease of 3,135 from the previous day, and the open interest was 169,462, an increase of 8,455. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,383, a decrease of 1,445, and the open interest was 294,000, an increase of 4,065 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 34,861, a decrease of 100. The LME Copper inventory was 154,300, a decrease of 7,850, and the注销仓单 ratio was 46.13%, a decrease of 0.96% [1]. - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as LME copper ascension - discount, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - month spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The Fed meeting minutes indicated that high uncertainty calls for cautious rate cuts, and almost all members mentioned inflation risks. Trump "released positive news" and Europe had "new ideas", but the possibility of reaching a good agreement remained small [1]. - **Micro**: In April 2025, China's copper product output was 2.081 million tons, a decline from March but a multi - year high for the same period. In March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.5135 million tons, consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a supply surplus of 20,500 tons. Poland will lower its copper mining tax next year. The underground mining of the Kakula mine by Ivanhoe Mines was suspended, and the restoration work in the west area continued. In March, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, down from 180,000 tons in February [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The easing of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of rush exports, but the approaching traditional off - season and the increase in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory last week may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain weakly cautious. It is recommended that investors lightly test short positions on the main contract at high prices, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Copper Market Data - On May 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,920, down 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,455 lots, down 9,674; the open interest was 153,061 lots, down 10,259; the inventory was 31,754 tons, down 9,464; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,082, down 375 [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 165, down 195; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was 205, up 20; the spot discount of North China electrolytic copper was - 70, down 70; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was 30, down 125 [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 320, up 30; the price difference between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 250, down 10; the price difference between the second continuous and the third continuous contract was 220, up 40 [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures was 9,519.5, up 32.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (data seems abnormal), down 166,525; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 15.88, up 1.87; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 95.2, down 9.28; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1853, down 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.678, unchanged; the total inventory was 174,607 tons, up 2,985 [2]. 3.2 Important Information - According to SMI, Mercuria Energy Trading Group expects a shortage of 300,000 tons of copper concentrate supply and a surplus of 800,000 tons of refined copper supply this year, which may drive up copper prices [2]. - According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2513,500 tons, the consumption was 2493,000 tons, with a surplus of 20,600 tons. From January to March 2025, the global refined copper production was 7,283,200 tons, the consumption was 7,012,500 tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons. In March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 153,920 tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 452,170 tons [2]. - In April 2025, China's copper strip exports were 10,741 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.84%. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative copper strip exports were 39,166 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.86% [2]. - The US Congress and the White House reached an agreement on the budget resolution, including a $5.8 trillion investment in aviation over the next decade, a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, and a $4 billion reduction in spending. The US April consumer inflation CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. 3.3 Supply - side Information - The sulfide copper ore expansion project of Gedi.trepe polymetallic mine under ACC Metals in Shanghai is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. Freeport - McMoRan Indonesia was permitted to export 2.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months from March 1 [3]. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a refining capacity of 200,000 tons has stopped production. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile with a 350,000 - ton copper refining capacity has suspended production until May due to a problem with the converter furnace. The Kaaou Yalaua smelter in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may be put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons [3]. - Yimen Copper Industry's new anode copper capacity increased from 100,000 tons to 150,000 tons and was successfully put into production on April 12. Jiangxi Copper Baoyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi. Jinchuan Group's second - phase 800,000 - ton intelligent electrolytic copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathodes in August [3]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar copper smelter with a 480,000 - ton capacity stopped production for 6 - month maintenance in mid - October 2024 due to a fire in the natural gas purification device. India's alaxti copper smelter may start production in mid - 2025. Japan's Toho Metal Mining plans to carry out a 6 - week maintenance on its Tovy Saelter & Refinery copper smelter in late October [3]. 3.4 Demand - side Information - High copper prices have affected new orders for copper rods. The operating rates of China's refined copper rods and recycled copper rods increased last week. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises remained flat or decreased [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production decreased. The order volume and operating rate of copper liquid packaging increased. The operating rate of China's brass rods increased [3]. - Due to the easing of reciprocal tariffs and the approaching traditional off - season, the operating rates, production, imports, and exports of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline. Specifically, the operating rates of copper wire and cable, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper liquid packaging, copper strips, copper foils, steel pipes, and brass rods may decline [3]. 3.5 Inventory Information - The inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports may increase or decrease. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area decreased last week, the social inventory increased, the inventory in the futures exchange decreased, and the inventory in COMEX increased [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The easing of Sino-US mutual tariffs has led to expectations of rush exports, but the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,540 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,697 lots, a decrease of 15,718 lots; the open interest was 166,088 lots, a decrease of 5,147 lots; and the inventory was 45,738 tons, a decrease of 16,175 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,340 yuan, an increase of 230 yuan; the premium of anode copper was 800 yuan, an increase of 510 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 190 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan; in North China, it was 50 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; and in East China, it was 250 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous first was 350 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; between Shanghai copper continuous first and Shanghai copper continuous second was 290 yuan, a decrease of 70 yuan; and between Shanghai copper continuous second and Shanghai copper continuous first was 190 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,554.5 US dollars, an increase of 31 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 170,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was 3.16 US dollars, a decrease of 12.36 US dollars; and the spread of 3 - 15 months contract was 121 US dollars, a decrease of 29.50 US dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.674 US dollars, an increase of 0.08 US dollars; the total inventory was 171,622 tons, an increase of 1,958 tons [2] Industry News - **Mine Expansion and Production**: The fluidized copper ore expansion project of ACC Metals' polymetallic mine will be put into production in Q1 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of Mirado Mine under Tongling Nonferrous may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Export Restrictions and Tax**: Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [4]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: Domestic copper concentrate production and import volume in May may increase or decrease month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has risen compared to last week. The out - port volume and inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports have increased or decreased compared to last week [4]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper, but the opening of the solid waste import window may lead to an increase or decrease in domestic scrap copper production and import volume. Scrap copper suppliers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a supply shortage [4]. - **Smelter Situation**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has suspended production until May due to problems with the melting furnace. The Kaooor Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [4]. Macroeconomic Situation - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget decision in April, including spending 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars, and the government reducing spending by 4 billion US dollars. The US PMI and employment data in May were better than expected, and the CPI annual rate in April was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead to an interest rate cut by the Fed in September or December [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices have improved new orders, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate of China's copper rod (recycled copper rod) industry compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises has remained flat (decreased) [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry (raw material and finished product inventory) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The order volume and processing rate of copper foil have increased (slightly decreased) compared to last week [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week. Due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support levels of 74,000 - 78,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 US dollars for London copper, and 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, and 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for US copper [4]