Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the copper market is expected to experience a surplus of 40,000 tons in 2025, followed by a projected deficit of 55,530 tons in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The anticipated surplus in 2025 suggests potential downward pressure on copper prices during that year [1] - The subsequent deficit forecast for 2026 may lead to upward price pressures as demand outstrips supply [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Overseas copper mines face production or transportation disruptions, but due to the Trump administration's significant tariff hikes on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional off - season in the domestic market, the global total inventory of electrolytic copper continues to accumulate. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,980, a decrease of 110 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 60,926 lots, a decrease of 20,740 lots; the open interest was 160,457 lots, a decrease of 9,473 lots; the inventory was 50,242 tons, an increase of 109 tons. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,060, an increase of 65 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 80, an increase of 175 compared to the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, an increase of 55; in North China, it was - 140, a decrease of 30; in East China, it was - 40, a decrease of 40 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 16, 2025, was 9,637, a decrease of 20.5 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 121,000 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 16, 2025, was 5.5185, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day, and the total inventory was 239,435 tons, an increase of 2,981 tons [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - economic**: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September, raising funds by increasing the weekly standard Treasury bond issuance scale. The number of new non - farm payrolls in the US in June was 147,000, higher than expected and the previous value. The annual CPI rate in June was 2.7%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September/December [2]. - **Upstream**: A blasting fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yuanqu County, Yuncheng, Shanxi, resulting in three deaths. Miners' protests at some mines were suspended until July 18. The China copper concentrate import index was negative and increased compared to last week. The export of high - quality refined copper in Europe was restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference was negative, and the import window for refined copper was open. Some smelters had production suspensions or capacity adjustments. The weekly processing fees for copper in North (South) China decreased (increased) [2]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises planned to reduce production to cut inventory in July, but new orders improved slightly. The capacity utilization rates of copper products such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper wrapping wires, steel strips, and copper tubes showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase month - on - month. The traditional off - season and Sino - US trade frictions may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate, production, and import volume of domestic copper enterprises in July [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper around 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000, London copper around 4,300 - 5,600 and 9,800 - 10,000, and US copper around 5.0 - 6.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The global electrolytic copper total inventory continues to accumulate due to factors such as disturbances in overseas copper mine production or transportation, the significant impact of the traditional domestic consumption off - season, and Trump's government's tariff policies. Copper prices may still have downward space. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,430, down 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 79,136 lots, down 2,530; the open interest was 172,204 lots, down 6,478. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720, down 265 [2]. - **London Copper Futures**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic) on July 14 was 9,643.5, down 19.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 109,625 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.5255, down 0.1. The total inventory was 236,454 tons, an increase of 5,311 tons [2]. Industry News - **CSPT Meeting**: In the second - quarter general manager's office meeting in 2025, CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fee [2]. - **US Treasury Plan**: The US Treasury plans to raise its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September through increasing the scale of weekly standard - fixed - rate bond auctions, which helps reduce market shocks [2]. Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The world's (China's) port copper concentrate departure (loading, inventory) volume has changed compared to last week. Due to the Sino - US trade dispute, the willingness of traders to accept US scrap copper is low. However, the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper economically viable, and the scrap copper import window may open, but the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in July may decrease month - on - month, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - **Smelting Plants**: Some smelting plants have production problems. For example, Glencore's EKSAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Suned copper smelter in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Some new smelting plants are expected to be put into production, such as the Kanoa - Tabula smelter in the Congo (Kinshasa) and some domestic projects [3]. Downstream Situation - **Copper Rod**: The processing fee of copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory due to high finished - product inventories, but new orders have slightly improved. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod and recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared to last week [3]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable has increased compared to last week. The raw material inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased, while the finished - product inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of copper cable wrapping have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days of cable - wrapping enterprises have decreased [3]. - **Other Products**: The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip has increased, but the downstream demand is weak due to the traditional consumption off - season. The capacity utilization rate of steel pipes has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase or decrease [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,400 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (5.0 - 6.3 and 6.0 - 7.0) [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. is expected to accelerate copper imports ahead of the implementation of a new 50% tariff on all copper imports, as announced by President Trump [1] - The new tariff is anticipated to take effect around July 31 or August 1, according to U.S. Commerce Secretary [1] - Traders are moving copper from global warehouses to the U.S. to capitalize on the current price premium of approximately $2,600 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that U.S. copper imports will decline in the months following the tariff implementation as users deplete their inventories [2] - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices outside the U.S. will drop to $8,800 per ton in the next three months, although any decline may be limited by ongoing global supply constraints [2] - A mining intelligence analyst suggests that while copper prices are under pressure, they may rebound after the tariff is finalized due to tight fundamentals in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000, while the number of continued jobless claims rose to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021 [5]. - The annualized quarterly rate of the real GDP final value in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, higher than the expected decrease of 0.2%, showing the first contraction in three years, and personal consumption final value only increased by 0.5% [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran eased, and the impact on copper supply and transportation weakened. Trump planned to arrange a Fed chair before Powell's term ended and promote rapid interest - rate cuts [5]. - The basic copper index decreased compared with last week. The supply - side disturbances of copper smelting continued, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low. The estimated output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and the low inventory continued to support the short - term copper price [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The domestic TC maintained a low - level weak quotation, the spot premium strengthened, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and the geopolitical risk eased [8][9][12]. - **Bearish factors**: The demand performance was weak [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. The deliveries from Chile and Peru both declined [15]. - As of the week of June 20, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.8 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars per dry ton compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low [19]. - In May, the actual domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The output in June is expected to remain high [21]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The deliveries from Thailand, Japan, and the US all declined [24]. - **Demand - side data** - As of June 26, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 900 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [28]. - In May, the domestic copper strip output was 210,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.46% but still higher than the same period last year [32]. - In May, the domestic refined copper rod output was 840,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78% and a year - on - year increase of 23.43%. The domestic recycled copper rod output was 201,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.82% [36]. - In May, China's total automobile exports were 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports were 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - The LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1.1% in the week of June 20, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 26 decreased by 100 tons compared with June 23 [43]. - On June 26, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 70 yuan per ton, showing a decline, while the LME 0 - 3 spot premium increased significantly [47]. 3.4后市研判 The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a situation of supply - demand imbalance. The supply side is supported by smelter shutdowns and copper concentrate shortages, while the demand side is significantly suppressed by the off - season. In the context of the game between long and short positions, price increases are restricted by weak demand, and price decreases are limited by cost support. Attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm data on the US dollar, US tariff policies, and the acceptance of current prices by domestic buyers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On June 6, 2025, the SHFE main contract closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, showing a slight upward trend. The LME 3 - month copper price was reported at 9,707.5 US dollars/ton, continuing the upward trend. The spot premium and discount showed obvious differentiation, and the LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened to 93.15 US dollars/ton, indicating tight near - end supply [2]. - The LME open interest decreased by 1,146 lots to 283,000 lots, with a slight contraction in market trading activity. The SHFE copper inter - month spread BACK structure remained at around 100 yuan/ton, and the import loss widened to 1,600 yuan/ton, stimulating smelters to accelerate exports and increasing short - term liquidity pressure [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - The shortage of copper concentrate has intensified, and domestic smelting capacity is being restored. The cathode copper output of Western Copper increased by 18% year - on - year to 67,400 tons, and the acceptance of the bonded mixed ore project at Tangshan Port may relieve long - term raw material pressure [3]. - The entire copper industry chain has entered the traditional off - season, with generally declining operating rates. The copper rod operating rate in June is expected to drop to 47.11%, and the enameled wire operating rate is expected to drop by 4.5 percentage points to 67.76%. The operating rates of wire and cable and copper strip also weakened. High copper prices have curbed downstream procurement, with demand mainly from rigid needs and long - term contracts. The demand for lithium - ion copper foil is relatively strong [3]. - LME inventory increased by 591 tons to 32,278 tons, COMEX inventory increased to 186,883 short tons, and overseas visible inventory accumulated marginally. SHFE inventory decreased by 5,600 tons to 132,400 tons, with continued but slowed destocking in China. The SMM national social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 149,000 tons compared with last week, showing initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper (premium copper) was 78,970 yuan/ton on June 6, 2025, up 0.65% from the previous day, and the premium decreased by 10% to 135 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 20% to 30 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper remained at - 30 yuan/ton [6]. - The LME (0 - 3) basis was 70 US dollars/ton, down 25.02% from the previous day. The SHFE copper price was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day, and the LME copper price was 9,671 US dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [6]. - LME inventory increased by 1.87% to 32,278 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 4.06% to 132,400 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.53% to 187,877 short tons [6]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper inventory reduction limits price decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 77,870 with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 77,90 with a decline of 0.10%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,566 with a decline of 0.31% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 73,407, a decrease of 3,135 from the previous day, and the open interest was 169,462, an increase of 8,455. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,383, a decrease of 1,445, and the open interest was 294,000, an increase of 4,065 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 34,861, a decrease of 100. The LME Copper inventory was 154,300, a decrease of 7,850, and the注销仓单 ratio was 46.13%, a decrease of 0.96% [1]. - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as LME copper ascension - discount, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - month spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The Fed meeting minutes indicated that high uncertainty calls for cautious rate cuts, and almost all members mentioned inflation risks. Trump "released positive news" and Europe had "new ideas", but the possibility of reaching a good agreement remained small [1]. - **Micro**: In April 2025, China's copper product output was 2.081 million tons, a decline from March but a multi - year high for the same period. In March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.5135 million tons, consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a supply surplus of 20,500 tons. Poland will lower its copper mining tax next year. The underground mining of the Kakula mine by Ivanhoe Mines was suspended, and the restoration work in the west area continued. In March, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, down from 180,000 tons in February [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The easing of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US leads to expectations of rush exports, but the approaching traditional off - season and the increase in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory last week may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain weakly cautious. It is recommended that investors lightly test short positions on the main contract at high prices, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Copper Market Data - On May 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,920, down 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,455 lots, down 9,674; the open interest was 153,061 lots, down 10,259; the inventory was 31,754 tons, down 9,464; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,082, down 375 [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 165, down 195; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was 205, up 20; the spot discount of North China electrolytic copper was - 70, down 70; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was 30, down 125 [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 320, up 30; the price difference between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 250, down 10; the price difference between the second continuous and the third continuous contract was 220, up 40 [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures was 9,519.5, up 32.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (data seems abnormal), down 166,525; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 15.88, up 1.87; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 95.2, down 9.28; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1853, down 0.05 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.678, unchanged; the total inventory was 174,607 tons, up 2,985 [2]. 3.2 Important Information - According to SMI, Mercuria Energy Trading Group expects a shortage of 300,000 tons of copper concentrate supply and a surplus of 800,000 tons of refined copper supply this year, which may drive up copper prices [2]. - According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2513,500 tons, the consumption was 2493,000 tons, with a surplus of 20,600 tons. From January to March 2025, the global refined copper production was 7,283,200 tons, the consumption was 7,012,500 tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons. In March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 153,920 tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 452,170 tons [2]. - In April 2025, China's copper strip exports were 10,741 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.84%. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative copper strip exports were 39,166 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.86% [2]. - The US Congress and the White House reached an agreement on the budget resolution, including a $5.8 trillion investment in aviation over the next decade, a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, and a $4 billion reduction in spending. The US April consumer inflation CPI annual rate was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. 3.3 Supply - side Information - The sulfide copper ore expansion project of Gedi.trepe polymetallic mine under ACC Metals in Shanghai is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. Freeport - McMoRan Indonesia was permitted to export 2.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months from March 1 [3]. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a refining capacity of 200,000 tons has stopped production. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile with a 350,000 - ton copper refining capacity has suspended production until May due to a problem with the converter furnace. The Kaaou Yalaua smelter in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may be put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons [3]. - Yimen Copper Industry's new anode copper capacity increased from 100,000 tons to 150,000 tons and was successfully put into production on April 12. Jiangxi Copper Baoyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi. Jinchuan Group's second - phase 800,000 - ton intelligent electrolytic copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathodes in August [3]. - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar copper smelter with a 480,000 - ton capacity stopped production for 6 - month maintenance in mid - October 2024 due to a fire in the natural gas purification device. India's alaxti copper smelter may start production in mid - 2025. Japan's Toho Metal Mining plans to carry out a 6 - week maintenance on its Tovy Saelter & Refinery copper smelter in late October [3]. 3.4 Demand - side Information - High copper prices have affected new orders for copper rods. The operating rates of China's refined copper rods and recycled copper rods increased last week. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises remained flat or decreased [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production decreased. The order volume and operating rate of copper liquid packaging increased. The operating rate of China's brass rods increased [3]. - Due to the easing of reciprocal tariffs and the approaching traditional off - season, the operating rates, production, imports, and exports of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline. Specifically, the operating rates of copper wire and cable, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper liquid packaging, copper strips, copper foils, steel pipes, and brass rods may decline [3]. 3.5 Inventory Information - The inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports may increase or decrease. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area decreased last week, the social inventory increased, the inventory in the futures exchange decreased, and the inventory in COMEX increased [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The easing of Sino-US mutual tariffs has led to expectations of rush exports, but the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,540 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,697 lots, a decrease of 15,718 lots; the open interest was 166,088 lots, a decrease of 5,147 lots; and the inventory was 45,738 tons, a decrease of 16,175 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,340 yuan, an increase of 230 yuan; the premium of anode copper was 800 yuan, an increase of 510 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 190 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan; in North China, it was 50 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; and in East China, it was 250 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous first was 350 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; between Shanghai copper continuous first and Shanghai copper continuous second was 290 yuan, a decrease of 70 yuan; and between Shanghai copper continuous second and Shanghai copper continuous first was 190 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,554.5 US dollars, an increase of 31 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 170,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was 3.16 US dollars, a decrease of 12.36 US dollars; and the spread of 3 - 15 months contract was 121 US dollars, a decrease of 29.50 US dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.674 US dollars, an increase of 0.08 US dollars; the total inventory was 171,622 tons, an increase of 1,958 tons [2] Industry News - **Mine Expansion and Production**: The fluidized copper ore expansion project of ACC Metals' polymetallic mine will be put into production in Q1 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of Mirado Mine under Tongling Nonferrous may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Export Restrictions and Tax**: Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [4]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: Domestic copper concentrate production and import volume in May may increase or decrease month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has risen compared to last week. The out - port volume and inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports have increased or decreased compared to last week [4]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper, but the opening of the solid waste import window may lead to an increase or decrease in domestic scrap copper production and import volume. Scrap copper suppliers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a supply shortage [4]. - **Smelter Situation**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has suspended production until May due to problems with the melting furnace. The Kaooor Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [4]. Macroeconomic Situation - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget decision in April, including spending 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars, and the government reducing spending by 4 billion US dollars. The US PMI and employment data in May were better than expected, and the CPI annual rate in April was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead to an interest rate cut by the Fed in September or December [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices have improved new orders, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate of China's copper rod (recycled copper rod) industry compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises has remained flat (decreased) [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry (raw material and finished product inventory) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The order volume and processing rate of copper foil have increased (slightly decreased) compared to last week [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week. Due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support levels of 74,000 - 78,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 US dollars for London copper, and 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, and 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for US copper [4]