2025年12月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再创新高，突破60 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：重心上移 | 12 | | 氧化铝：供需过剩未改 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：开始补涨，关注前高能否突破 | 14 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 14 | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 16 | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：去库持续叠加大厂复产未定，高位震荡 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注新疆地区天气情况 | 20 | | 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡格局 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：表需数据偏弱，低位震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：现货价格短期坚挺，宽幅震 ...

铂观点：降息交易延续，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：本周美联储议息会议成为关注焦点，当前市场注意力已由 降息决定本身转向鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的官方声明以及发布会上 的发言，若鲍威尔释放偏鹰派信号，或导致铂价短线小幅调整。不 过，中期铂价仍将受到向上推动。进入12月，临近美国总统提名美联 储主席，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈赛特是下任美联储主席的 头号候选人，其鸽派发言引发外界对美联储独立性的进一步担忧，并 给予铂价上行驱动。长期来看，铂金供给集中度高导致扰动风险持续 存在，需求在工业和投资端的带动下将稳步扩张，同时"降息+软着 陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性，因此长期维持多头观点。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。此外，上周普京在克里姆林宫与特朗普特 使维特 ...

铂观点：价格跟随贵⾦属板块波动，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：进入12月，临近美国总统提名美联储主席，降息再次成为 贵金属板块的核心交易矛盾。当前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文· 哈赛特是下任美联储主席的头号候选人，其鸽派发言引发外界对美联 储独立性的进一步担忧，铂价有所走强。长期来看，铂金供给集中度 高导致扰动风险持续存在，需求在工业和投资端的带动下将稳步扩 张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性，因此长 期维持多头观点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-09 降息交易成为市场重心，铂钯高位震荡 12⽉8⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.05元/克，涨幅0.78%；钯主⼒ 合约收盘价为383.70元/克，涨幅1.07%。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制 ...

每期比赛的税前现金奖励为：第1名奖励688元，第2~4名奖励188元/人，第5~10名奖励88元/人，其余正收益选手均分500元正收益奖。月度积分王的税前现 金奖励为：第1名奖励888元，第2~4名奖励288元/人，第5~10名奖励188元/人，第11~30名奖励68元/人，第31~100名奖励18元/人。 每经编辑｜吴永久 12月8日，A股放量上攻，CPO、商业航天、人形机器人概念股表现出色。沪指涨0.54%，收报3924.08点；创业板指涨2.60%，收报3190.27点。沪深两市成交 额达到20366亿元，较上周五大幅放量3109亿元。 消息面上，12月8日，智元机器人第5000台通用具身机器人正式量产下线交付。其中，第5000台下线的机器人为灵犀X2。此外，灵犀X1/X2系列1846台，远 征A1/A2系列达1742台，精灵G1/G2系列为1412台。智元机器人联合创始人、总裁、CTO彭志辉表示，5000台的下线意味着智元规模化制造体系得到初步验 证，"我们可以更加自信地规划明年的1万台、未来10万台的产能蓝图。" 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛第79期比赛中，比赛从12月1日开始以来，多位选手跑 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant rebound with strong performances from the brokerage and insurance sectors, driven by favorable news over the weekend [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Wu Qing emphasized the acceleration of building first-class investment banks and institutions [1] - The 79th edition of the simulated stock trading competition, "掘金大赛," commenced, attracting numerous participants who achieved good returns [1] Group 2 - The competition offers cash rewards for top performers, with the first prize being 688 yuan and additional prizes for subsequent ranks [3] - Participants can gain access to exclusive market insights through the "火线快评" product, which includes the latest events, investment logic, and company analyses [3][8] - The competition aims to enhance trading success rates by providing participants with valuable information and networking opportunities [3] Group 3 - The brokerage sector, referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," has shown notable upward movement, indicating strong buying interest [4] - The human-robotics sector is transitioning from concept-driven to performance-driven, with significant potential for growth [5] - Analysts predict that if the U.S. economy underperforms, gold may excel, while industrial metals like copper and tin could perform well if the economy exceeds expectations [5] Group 4 - Current copper prices are influenced by expectations regarding U.S. copper tariffs, leading to significant price differentials between CME and LME copper [5] - High supply levels are expected to keep copper prices stable, with Goldman Sachs forecasting prices to fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026 [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is facing a critical resistance level, which could determine the market's direction in the near term [6]

来源：美股笔记BJ 大家好，欢迎回到《美股笔记》，今天是2025年12月3日，周三。 今日美股市场呈现出复杂的"数据博弈"格局。虽然数据面上又是"坏消息"，但美股三大指却温和收涨， 纳指更是豪取八连阳！更重要的是，之前一直被按在地板上摩擦的小盘股（IWM），今天突然成了全 场最靓的仔，暴涨1.82%。 | 前页 | 概念板块 财报日历 | 新設中心 | 机构造综 | 财经日历 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | | | | 朗斯达克综合指数 | | | | 标值500指数 | | | | | | 47882.90 | | | | 23454.09 | | | | 6849.72 | | | | | | +408.44 +0.86% | | | | +40.42 +0.17% | | | | =20.35 +0.30% | | | | | | 领涨榜 | 盘中 ▼ | | 更多 > | 领跌榜 | 盘中 ▼ | | 更多 > | 热力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a pullback on December 3, with significant movements in the non-ferrous metals and cultivated diamond sectors, while the commercial aerospace concept faced considerable fluctuations. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 76.5 billion yuan compared to Tuesday [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market saw a continued decline, with the non-ferrous metals and cultivated diamond sectors leading in gains [1]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.67 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Competition and Rewards - The 79th session of the simulated stock trading competition, hosted by the Daily Economic News App, began on December 1 and will run until December 12, with a simulated capital of 500,000 yuan [1]. - Cash rewards for the competition include 688 yuan for the first place, 188 yuan for the second to fourth places, and 88 yuan for the fifth to tenth places, with additional rewards for monthly leaderboard positions [3]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Some participants in the competition are optimistic about opportunities in humanoid robots and interest rate-sensitive trades, such as gold, silver, and non-ferrous metals [4]. - The "Fire Line Quick Review" product, developed by the team led by Da Ge, provides insights into market trends, investment logic, and company analysis, highlighting sectors like the Nvidia supply chain, electronic cloth, rare earths, and tungsten [4].

每日经济新闻 当前距离美联储12月10日议息会议仅剩7天，港股市场情绪回暖，各类资金跑步进场，恒生科技指数 ETF（513180）已连续24日获得资金申购，基金份额持续创近期新高。 华泰证券表示，当前港股已接近"利空出尽"状态，前期压制的核心风险点如中美贸易摩擦、海外流动性 宽松交易回摆及"外卖大战"对互联网板块盈利的冲击已释放相对充分，后续下行空间有限。情绪指标在 悲观区间反复震荡，指向左侧布局机会。 ...

Market Overview - On December 1, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and continued to rise, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, silver, and AI smartphones leading the gains [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8739 trillion yuan, an increase of 288.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Competition Event - The 79th session of the "Digging Gold" competition began on December 1, with registration open from November 29 to December 12, and the competition running from December 1 to December 12 [1] - Participants start with a simulated capital of 500,000 yuan, and cash rewards are given for positive returns at the end of each session [2] Rewards Structure - The cash rewards for each session are as follows: 688 yuan for the 1st place, 188 yuan for 2nd to 4th places, and 88 yuan for 5th to 10th places, with the remaining positive return participants sharing a total of 500 yuan [3] - Monthly leaderboard rewards include 888 yuan for the 1st place, 288 yuan for 2nd to 4th places, and 188 yuan for 5th to 10th places, with additional smaller rewards for lower ranks [3] Market Sentiment - Some experienced participants believe that the volume-driven sell-off on November 21 may have been a misjudgment, and the current news environment appears to be warming up with no significant negative factors [4] - Participants are optimistic about sectors such as humanoid robots and interest rate-sensitive trades, including gold, silver, and non-ferrous metals [5] Insights from "Fire Line Quick Review" - The "Fire Line Quick Review" product, developed by a team led by Da Ge, provides insights into market trends, investment logic, and company analysis, highlighting sectors like the Nvidia supply chain, electronic cloth, rare earths, and silver [5] - Companies such as Industrial Fulian, Honghe Technology, and Xingye Silver Tin have seen their stock prices double, while others like Zhongtung High-tech and Shenghe Resources have also experienced significant gains [5]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis highlights the positive outlook for precious metals, particularly silver and gold, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and macroeconomic conditions, while also emphasizing the potential for industrial metals like copper and aluminum due to similar monetary policy shifts [2][3]. Precious Metals - The weakening US dollar and overall recovery in risk assets have led to a significant rise in precious metals, with silver leading the charge, breaking historical highs due to futures market dynamics [2]. - The expectation of continued economic recession in the US supports the view that interest rates will remain low, which is favorable for gold prices, with a potential breakout above previous highs anticipated [2]. - The analysis suggests a shift in stock selection strategy from current earnings to future reserves valuation for gold and silver stocks, recommending specific companies such as Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts have positively impacted copper and aluminum prices, with recent price increases noted (LME copper up 3.7%, aluminum up 2%) [3]. - The supply dynamics for copper and aluminum are highlighted, with copper inventories increasing while aluminum inventories are decreasing, indicating a mixed supply outlook [3]. - The analysis indicates that the copper and aluminum sectors are well-positioned for both short-term gains and long-term value appreciation, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [3]. Energy and Strategic Metals - The lithium market is expected to see a supply turning point by 2026, with increasing demand from domestic power and energy storage sectors, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [4]. - The rare earth sector is poised for a recovery, with government policies supporting the industry and improving demand dynamics, particularly in applications like robotics [5]. - The cobalt market is projected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with price increases expected due to supply constraints, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Summary of Recommendations - Companies to watch in the copper sector include Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, while aluminum companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Hongqiao Group are highlighted for their growth potential [3][5]. - In the lithium space, companies such as Tianhua New Energy and Ganfeng Lithium are recommended due to their strategic positioning in the market [5].