1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side is at a major cycle inflection point. Demand is supported by interest rate cuts, and policies and replacement cycles are favorable for heavy - truck demand. However, the real estate sector is a major drag. With relatively small supply - demand contradictions and current low valuations, inflation and the capacity cycle inflection point raise the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of rubber prices will increase. It is advisable to buy at an appropriate time, with the ru operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr at 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Also, reduce the position of the long - ru and short - nr arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - There are policy expectations for the real estate sector, which is yet to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend against excessive competition. Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be guarded against. The US aims to increase its GDP to 40 trillion US dollars by 2030, which implies an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, and inflation will provide support [6]. 3.2 Supply - The major cycle inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to decline. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level in 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to reduced production or hoarding. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the current weakness. Currently, the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is fair. This year, the phenology in natural rubber producing areas is average, with more rainfall and floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm and the processing sector unprofitable. The global output is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber. The substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is approaching its peak [6]. 3.3 Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the middle level, having increased significantly compared to 2016. The inventory - to - sales ratio is not low, but considering the large increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high, with an overall neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel truck tires is lower than last year, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level with marginal destocking. Considering the market expansion, it is also evaluated as neutral [6]. 3.4 Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround in the difficult situation will take time. Affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly. Overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand, and the Fed's interest rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - economy, and it is expected that global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. 3.5 Market Data Analysis - **Price Relationship**: The basis of ru is at a multi - year high; the spread between full - latex and Thai mixed rubber is at a low level; the ru 9 - January spread is 680, stronger than last year; the nr continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 80 and weakening; the br continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 65; the spread between full - latex and 20 - type rubber has rebounded from a low level to a relatively high level in the past year; synthetic rubber Br is at a relatively low position compared to natural rubber [16][20][25]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Thai raw materials are consolidating with an upward bias. In 2025, Thai raw material prices were relatively strong compared to finished products, indicating a tightening of raw material production capacity. However, the continuous weakness of the spread between latex and cup lump suggests that supply problems are not significant [35]. - **Processing Profits**: Thai processing profits are low and still in the negative range, reflecting over - capacity in processing and tight raw materials in Thailand [40]. - **Inventory Data**: Qingdao's inventory is at a medium level, but considering imports, it is not overly high. Exchange ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts are at a medium - low level. Synthetic rubber inventory is moderately high. Full - steel truck tire inventory days are at a medium - high level in recent years, and semi - steel tire inventory days are at a high level [46][56][66]. 3.6 Supply - Side Analysis - **Production**: According to ANRPC, the cumulative global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. As of October, ANRPC's production increased slightly. China's natural rubber production in the first nine months of 2025 increased by over 7%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. The global rubber production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and ANRPC's capacity will enter a deficit mode (excluding Africa, Myanmar, and Laos). High prices stimulate output, but low prices lead to reduced production. The price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather [75][83]. - **Imports**: In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to EU Eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024. Currently, the implementation of EUDR has been postponed until the end of 2026 and 2027 [86]. 3.7 Demand - Side Analysis - **Tire Industry**: In 2025, the overall operating rate of full - steel truck tires was on the rise but still low, at a low level in recent years. The current operating rate of semi - steel tires is not high. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire outer - tube production was 0.6%, with the marginal growth rate continuing to decline and significantly slower than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire exports as of November was 3.8%, with the growth rate also marginally decreasing, performing relatively well but still lower than last year [107][111]. - **Heavy - Trucks**: Heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Despite weak real - estate data, the trade - in policy boosts heavy - truck sales. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. Large infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station are beneficial for long - term heavy - truck demand [116]. - **Passenger Cars**: Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly [119]. - **Infrastructure and Real Estate**: The real - estate sector in 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time. Cement production had negative growth last year and is marginally improving this year, but as of November, the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened. Transportation investment is an important measure for stable growth. Major infrastructure projects such as large - scale hydropower and railway projects have started, opening up new space for infrastructure construction [129][133][139]. - **Freight Volume**: Road freight volume is recovering with difficulty. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. It is affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work and the substitution of railway and waterway transportation [145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices initially declined and then rebounded, with losses in domestic refined copper imports persisting. The US labor market remains resilient, and a Fed official said there's no reason to cut interest rates. China's central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons, Comex inventories increased by 4,653 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and BC copper increased by 2,098 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream procurement became more cautious, and the export window is gradually opening. Trump said he would not impose tariffs on key minerals like copper. The high - level instability of copper prices is evident, and there is a divergence between foreign capital's bullish sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Spot alumina prices fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Alumina producers have high ore reserves, and costs are under pressure. With the end of environmental controls and increased production, along with imports, inventories are accumulating. The processing end of the photovoltaic industry may maintain resilience, and the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has eased slightly. Aluminum prices continue to be high, and the spot discount is narrowing [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.04% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.24%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to reduce its nickel ore production target in 2026, which may lead to a global primary nickel supply - demand gap and stimulate nickel price increases. The first - level nickel production has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on prices. Short - term, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The US labor market data is strong, and China's central bank cut interest rates. Inventory changes vary in different markets. High copper prices make downstream procurement cautious, and the export window is opening. Trump's statement on tariffs and external risks affect copper prices, with a divergence between market sentiment and the industrial situation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures and spot prices of aluminum - related products are weak. Alumina costs are under pressure, inventories are accumulating, and the processing end may maintain resilience, with aluminum prices remaining high and the discount narrowing [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight, inventories increased. Indonesia's production cut plan may drive up prices, while increased production and hedging demand pose challenges [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On January 15, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventories decreased by 500 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 13,378 tons, and social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 1,070 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 3,800 tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 2,107 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 470 yuan/ton. LME inventories decreased by 2,000 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 14,010 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased by 16,000 tons. The active - contract import loss widened by 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,350 yuan/ton. LME inventories increased by 624 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 1,700 tons, and social inventories increased by 2,126 tons. The active - contract import profit increased by 6,230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.8%. LME inventories decreased by 25 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 793 tons, and social inventories decreased by 5,000 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 8.3%. LME inventories decreased by 5 tons, SHFE inventories decreased by 1,001 tons. The active - contract import loss turned to zero [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [12]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [18]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [30]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [37]. Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience and many honors; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both with significant achievements and media exposure [44][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 47.9 million cubic meters, 7.05 million cubic meters more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [2] - The 01 contract continues to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remains poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, and the upside is limited. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward drivers are limited. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On January 9, the price of log 2601 was 742.0, unchanged from January 8; log 2603 was 774.5, down 4.0 from January 8 with a decline of - 0.51%; log 2605 was 787.0, down 2.0 with a decline of - 0.25%; log 2607 was 798.0, down 2.5 with a decline of - 0.31%. The basis of the main contract was - 34.5, up 4.0 from January 8 [1] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged from January 8 to January 9. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars with a decline of - 1.79%; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged [1] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 12, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.976, unchanged from January 11. The import theoretical cost was 755.70 yuan, down 13.87 yuan from January 11 with a decline of - 2% [1] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - Port inventory: On November 30, it was 191.4 million cubic meters, up 2.2 million cubic meters from October 31 with an increase of 1.16% [1] - Departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea: The number of departing ships was 52.0, up 3.0 from the previous period with an increase of 6.12% [1] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 2, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 267 million cubic meters, up 13 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.12%. In Shandong, it was 195.00 million cubic meters, up 9.8 million cubic meters from December 26 with an increase of 5.29% [1] 3.5 Demand (Weekly) - As of January 2, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 5.65 million cubic meters, down 0.18 million cubic meters from the previous week with a decline of - 3%. In Shandong, it was 2.89 million cubic meters, up 0.10 million cubic meters with an increase of 4%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.17 million cubic meters, down 0.27 million cubic meters with a decline of - 11% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term shock is on the strong side [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply-demand contradiction. However, in the short term, boosted by macro expectations and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong operation, but the upward space may be limited. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main contract of soda ash opened high and moved low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands continued to have three tracks upward, indicating a short-term shock on the strong side. The upper pressure was focused on the 20 and 60 moving averages on the weekly line, and the support continued to focus on the 40 moving average on the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 643,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 1,967 lots. The intraday high was 1,242, the low was 1,204, and the closing price was 1,228, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (1.6% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment was generally stable with minor adjustments, and the maintenance expectations were few. The industrial supply hovered at a high level. The downstream purchasing sentiment was average, the demand was neither strong nor weak, and most of them maintained low-price on-demand replenishment and were resistant to high prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 22 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, the domestic soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56,500 tons (8.11% increase). Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,000 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, compared with 79.96% last week, a month-on-month increase of 4.43%. Among them, the ammonia-soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a month-on-month increase of 11.20%; the combined process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a month-on-month increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 88.15%, a month-on-month increase of 2.24% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons compared with Monday (4.26% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 40,800 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,500 tons. Compared with last Wednesday, it increased by 164,400 tons (11.67% increase). Among them, the light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10,190 tons (6.93% increase) [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a month-on-month decrease of 26.15%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable. At the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double tons) of the combined process was -40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia-soda process was -57.85 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw material ore salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal increased, resulting in an increase in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current daily output of soda ash has reached 110,300 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.39%. Coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is constantly increasing. Before the New Year's Day, 6 glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, and this week, another 3 production lines were shut down for cold repair, further weakening the rigid demand for soda ash and continuously increasing the inventory. However, there is certain short-term support under continuous losses and positive macro sentiment [4]

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI February contract closing at $55.99 per barrel, down $1.14 (2.00%) and Brent March contract at $59.96 per barrel, down $0.74 (1.22%) [2][16] - The U.S. has reached an agreement to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil, which is expected to increase the supply for the world's largest oil consumer, contributing to the drop in international oil prices [2][16] - The agreement may require oil shipments originally destined for China to change routes, as millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil have been stranded due to previous export restrictions [2][16] - The market is facing a contradiction where the volume of Venezuelan oil is expected to increase, while trade flows are shifting from West to East, raising concerns about discounted oil alternatives and energy spillover effects [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.38% to 2437 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.29% to 2860 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore is expected to see stable arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in the coming weeks, which will continue to increase local inventories [3][17] - Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil remains weak due to holiday impacts, while high-sulfur fuel oil demand is supported by an increase in ships installing desulfurization towers [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.13% to 3151 yuan/ton, with total domestic asphalt inventory at 24.73%, down 0.33% from last week [5][18] - The supply of diluted asphalt remains stable, with expectations that raw material supply will not be directly affected by geopolitical events [5][18] - The market is expected to stabilize with a slight upward trend in prices due to support from raw materials and supply, despite some pressure from certain refineries [5][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 130 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, with NR main contract up by 140 yuan/ton to 13150 yuan/ton [6][19] - The production area is experiencing alleviated rainfall, and the overseas peak production season is expected to last for over a month, providing support for raw material prices [6][19] - Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the macroeconomic environment is improving, leading to expectations of price fluctuations in the rubber market [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged, while EG2605 rose by 1.07% to 3879 yuan/ton [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7286 yuan/ton, down 0.68%, with the market facing weak demand and potential further declines in polyester operating rates [7][20] - Ethylene glycol supply is expected to improve with various facilities planning maintenance, while demand remains weak, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations [7][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2273 yuan/ton, with expectations of a slight increase in domestic production in January [8][21] - The decline in Iranian shipments is expected to reduce arrivals in January, providing price support, while MTO plant profits are under pressure [8][21] - Overall, methanol is expected to maintain a strong fluctuation trend due to these dynamics [8][21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6200 to 6400 yuan/ton, with various production margins indicating negative profitability [9][22] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly in early January [9][22] - Overall, polyolefins are expected to experience bottom fluctuations as inventory pressures increase towards the end of January [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with various grades showing price adjustments between 4500 to 4750 yuan/ton [10][23] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [10][23] - The overall performance of PVC is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with limited upward space anticipated [10][23] Urea - Urea prices in major regions increased by 10 yuan/ton, with current prices at 1750 yuan/ton [11][24] - Daily production remains stable at 20.4 million tons, with supply levels expected to rise as more companies resume operations [11][24] - The market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with attention on the final results of bidding and related market dynamics [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed significant increases, with trade prices in Shihezi at 1231 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [12][25] - The industry is seeing improved demand sentiment, although the overall demand remains weak [12][25] - The market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with ongoing dynamics affecting price fluctuations [12][25] Glass - Glass prices increased significantly, with the average price at 1081 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [13][14] - The production rate is stable, and demand sentiment is improving, although there are pressures from seasonal demand [13][14] - The market is expected to continue a strong trend in the short term, influenced by external factors and internal pressures [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The supply of soda ash is increasing and demand is weakening, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. However, in the short term, supported by macro - news and the sharp rise in coal prices, the price may maintain a volatile and strong trend. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intra - day performance. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands had an upward - opening three - rail, indicating a short - term volatile and strong signal. The upper pressure was near the 60 - week moving average, and the support was near the 60/40 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 1.521 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 15,426 lots. The intra - day high was 1277, the low was 1188, and the closing price was 1271, up 89 yuan/ton (7.53%) from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: The price was stable. Some plant loads increased slightly, with few maintenance expectations. The industry supply remained high. Downstream demand was average, mostly replenishing on demand and with low - price transactions [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was - 21 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1, domestic soda ash production was 697,100 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons (2.07%) compared to the previous period. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 79.96%, a decrease of 1.69% compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more increased by 0.11% [2] - Inventory: As of January 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5084 million tons, an increase of 100,100 tons (7.11%) from the previous period [2] - Demand: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises decreased by 5.87% compared to the previous period, and the overall shipment rate decreased by 4.21%. The downstream demand was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened [2] - Profit: As of January 1, the theoretical profit of the dual - alkali method was - 35.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.17% compared to the previous period. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 95.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.2% compared to the previous period. The cost - side fluctuated little [3][4] Main Logic Summary The soda ash production has decreased, but the overall operating rate is relatively high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the total output remains high. The rigid demand for soda ash has weakened, and inventory has increased. However, due to continuous losses and a warm macro - environment, there is some short - term support. The short - term price may maintain a volatile and strong trend [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The 03 contract's fundamentals have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upside potential. The market is expected to trade in a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On December 30th, the log 2601 contract was at 756.0, down 4.5 (-0.59%) from the previous day; the log 2603 contract remained flat at 776.0; the log 2605 contract was at 787.5, up 2.5 (0.32%) [2]. - The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on December 30th compared to the previous day. The latest round of FOB quotes for radiata pine 4m medium A was 112 USD/JAS m³, and for spruce 11.8m was 126 EUR/JAS m³, both unchanged [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 29th, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.008, up 0.01 from the previous day, with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 from the previous day, with a 0% change [2]. Supply: Monthly - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million m³, down 12.1 million m³ (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 254 million m³, down 6 million m³ (-2.31%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 185.2 million m³, up 2.15%. In Jiangsu, it was 52.1 million m³, down 9.4 million m³ (-15.30%) [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 5.89 million m³, down 0.49 million m³ (-8%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million m³, down 0.55 million m³ (-16%). In Jiangsu, it was 2.44 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (-3%) [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 New Zealand softwood log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million m³, an increase of 20.45 million m³ from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - In the context of low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments, some spot prices have been adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 29th, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2601, LG2603, LG2605) all declined compared to December 26th. The LG2601 contract dropped by 0.72% to 760.5 yuan/cubic meter, the LG2603 contract by 0.06% to 776 yuan/cubic meter, and the LG2605 contract by 0.25% to 785 yuan/cubic meter. The 01 - 03 and 01 - 05 spreads also decreased [2]. - The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 730 yuan/cubic meter. The latest round of foreign - market quotes was 112 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on December 29th was 7.008 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from December 28th. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% increase in length, was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 yuan from the previous day [2]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port freight volume in November was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6.01% compared to October. The number of departing ships was 49, a decrease of 9.26% compared to the previous period [2]. - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 ships carrying New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week) compared to the previous week. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million cubic meters, an increase of 20.45 million cubic meters (66.8% week - on - week) [3]. Inventory - As of December 26th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 254 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. Inventory in Shandong was 181.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters; inventory in Jiangsu was 52.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9.4 million cubic meters (15.30% week - on - week) [2][3]. Demand - As of December 26th, the average daily log out - bound volume was 5.89 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.49 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The average daily out - bound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.55 million cubic meters (16%) to 2.79 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu it decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters (3%) to 2.44 million cubic meters [2][3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but the weak demand persists, limiting the overall upside potential. The market is expected to trade in a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 29th, the prices of futures contracts such as Log 2601, Log 2603, and Log 2605 decreased compared to December 26th, with declines of -0.72%, -0.06%, and -0.25% respectively. The prices of various spot timbers at ports remained unchanged [2]. - The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 5.0, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3.5. The 03 contract basis increased by 0.5, and the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 [2]. - The foreign - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged from December 26th to January 2nd [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 29th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.008, up 0.01 from December 28th. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length allowance, was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 yuan [2]. Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships decreased by 5.0 (-9.26%) [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.54 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters (-2.31%) from December 19th. Inventory in different regions showed varying degrees of change [2][3]. Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume - As of December 26th, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 4,900 cubic meters (-8%) from December 19th. Outbound volumes in different regions also decreased to varying degrees [2][3]. Forecast of Arriving Ships - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 New Zealand coniferous log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week). The total arriving volume is expected to be 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters (66.8% week - on - week) [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 9, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 309,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 215,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41%. With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, some spot prices in Jiangsu increased last week. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 26, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends: the price of log 2601 was 766.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%); log 2605 was 787.0, up 1.5 (0.19%). The prices of various spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, in November, the port throughput was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2] Inventory - In terms of weekly inventory at major ports, as of December 19, the inventory in China was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters (-4.41%) from December 12. Inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3] Demand - In terms of weekly average daily outbound volume, as of December 19, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters (-2%) from December 12. The demand in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu increased slightly [3]