Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is interpreted as slightly "hawkish," despite the absence of expected dissenting votes from two hawkish members [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which led to significant market volatility before being classified as slightly "hawkish" [1]. - Only new member Stephen Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Waller and Bowman, previously seen as dissenters, supported the cut [1]. Group 2: Implications of Votes - Waller and Bowman’s votes are seen as a defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, indicating a potential shift away from political influence in monetary policy [2][4]. - Their support for the rate cut, despite political pressures, suggests that the rationale for aggressive cuts is weaker than the government might want the public to believe [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC decision, Waller's odds of becoming the next Fed Chair significantly decreased, while Miran's odds surged to the top position due to his dissenting vote [3]. - The actions of Waller and Bowman are interpreted as a positive signal, reducing concerns about excessive political interference in future monetary policy [4].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 矛盾纠结下的预防性降息 [Table_Title2] ——9 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 时，美联储公布 2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：如期降息 25BP，维持当前缩表节奏 美联储降息 25BP，重启降息周期。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%至 4.25% 之间（下调 25bp），符合 CME 期货价格隐含的市场预期。但本次会议在降息的同时，下调了明年的降息预期， 出现了所谓的"鹰派降息"。 缩表按原计划推进。此次 FOMC 会议仍表明会继续按之前节奏实施缩表，维持月度减持美国国债的上限在 50 亿 美元，月度减持抵押贷券(MBS)规模在 350 亿美元。 ► 议息会议声明：就业下行风险正在上升 ► 经济指标预测：上调经济预期、下调失业预期 此次美联储给出的经济指标预期较 2025 年 6 月发生了一些变化： 上调经济增速预期。其中，20 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth consecutive cut since 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that this rate cut does not signal the beginning of a long-term easing cycle, dampening market bullish sentiment [1][2] - The decision was characterized as a "risk management" cut, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns, which disappointed some traders [2] Group 2 - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57% to 46,018.32 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22,261.33 points [3] - The dollar index initially dropped by 0.4% after the rate cut but later recovered to increase by 0.3% following Powell's press conference [3] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the need for further rate cuts this year, with varying opinions on whether to raise rates or cut them again [3][4] Group 3 - The Fed's projections for 2026 indicate a more hawkish stance, with officials expecting only one additional rate cut next year, which is less than the market's expectation of two to three cuts [4] - The dot plot from the Fed shows considerable divergence in views among officials regarding the future path of U.S. economic and monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that this does not signal the start of a long-term easing cycle, dampening market enthusiasm [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut is characterized as a "risk management" measure, aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic slowdowns rather than a shift to aggressive monetary easing [3]. - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further rate cuts this year, with opinions ranging from one official advocating for a rate hike to others suggesting additional cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.57% to 46,018.32 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22,261.33 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.10% to 6,600.35 points [3]. - The dollar index initially dropped by 0.4% after the rate cut but later recovered to rise by 0.3% following Powell's press conference, indicating a complex market response to the Fed's signals [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are leaning downward, suggesting a challenging economic environment [4]. - The Fed's projections for 2026 indicate a more hawkish stance, with officials expecting only one additional rate cut next year, which is less than market expectations of two to three cuts [4].

兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，真的要无眠了！美联储要降息（凌晨2点），泰勒要加班！ 先简单看看目前海外市场的表现。 美股分化 9月17日晚间，临近美联储降息关键节点，美股三大指数走势分化，道指涨超300点，纳指跳水跌约0.5%，标普500指数微跌。 中概股继续大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%。 交易员普遍预期美联储将于本周首次降息，并给出未来几个月降息幅度与节奏的指引。 市场大体押注美联储将在周三降息25个基点，并几乎确信鲍威尔会释放进一步宽松的信号，以支撑疲软的劳动力市场。 这样的预期近来助推美股再创新高。按照安排，华盛顿时间下午2点将与利率决定同时发布最新经济预测，鲍威尔将在30分钟后召开新闻 发布会。 经济学家大多预计，官员们会在"点阵图"中为今年预留两次降息，与6月预测一致。这意味着本周之后今年或仅有一次降息，落在10月或 12月。 尽管"意外"空间不小，但期权交易显示，市场押注这次反应将比平常更平稳。摩根大通的Andrew Tyler表示，最可能的情形是降息25个基 点：只要鲍威尔偏鸽，并释放循序渐进的降息信号，标普500指数或将上涨0.5%~1%。 麦格理集团的Thierry Wizman表示："考虑到数 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut has a 3.9% chance [1] - Analysts predict mixed opinions during the meeting, with some supporting a 50 basis point cut and others advocating for a 25 basis point cut or opposing any cuts [1] - The current financial environment in the U.S. remains relatively loose, which does not support the idea of continuous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically experiences significant gains in the 12 months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [2] - The current market has fully priced in expectations for a 25 basis point cut, and a mere 25 basis point reduction may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction [2] - A 50 basis point cut may be necessary to maintain the downward trend of the dollar and support the rise of U.S. assets [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market's interest rates follow the U.S. due to the linked exchange rate system, and a rate cut by the Federal Reserve will lower funding costs in Hong Kong [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains during the last rate cut cycle, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 78.71% in 2020 [3] - The rate cut opens up further space for potential reductions in China, benefiting both the stock and real estate markets [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to create a more favorable liquidity environment for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, signaling positive market conditions [3] - Historically, U.S. Treasury bonds perform well during rate cut expectations, with long-term bonds particularly benefiting from increased relative value [3] Group 5 - Gold is expected to benefit from the rate cut as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making it more attractive [4]

当地时间9月16日至17日，美联储将召开为期两天的议息会议。17日下午（北京时间18日凌晨），美联 储将公布议息结果。 白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗称美联储今天应该降息50个基点，下次会议再降息50个基点。纳瓦罗认为，美联储 利率至少比正常水平高了100个基点。 "分歧"或成为会议关键词 据CNBC报道，在就业疲软、通胀居高不下以及政治压力交织的背景下，本次会议颇受关注， "分歧"可 能会成为一大关键词。从政策利率，到点阵图，再到经济预测，"分歧"可能无处不在。 自8月杰克逊霍尔央行年会之后，市场普遍预期美联储将转向关注疲软的劳动力市场，多数押注此次会 议将降息25个基点。然而在美联储内部，主席鲍威尔正面临"两面夹击"的艰难局面：一边是主张更大幅 度降息的美联储理事，另一边则是倾向于维持利率不变的地区联储行长。 据悉，今年有投票权的芝加哥联储银行行长古尔斯比此前已公开表达过仍然担忧通胀问题，立场相对偏 鹰派。不过，市场普遍认为美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼，以及近日刚获确认的新理事米兰都是偏鸽派的立 场。甚至有预测称，他们三人的投票可能成为1988年以来首次出现三位美联储理事与主席立场不一致的 情况。 基于此分析人士预计，本次议 ...

当地时间9月16日至17日，美联储将召开为期两天的议息会议。17日下午（北京时间18日凌晨），美联 储将公布议息结果。 白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗称美联储今天应该降息50个基点，下次会议再降息50个基点。纳瓦罗认为，美联储 利率至少比正常水平高了100个基点。 "分歧"或成为会议关键词 据CNBC报道，在就业疲软、通胀居高不下以及政治压力交织的背景下，本次会议颇受关注， "分歧"可 能会成为一大关键词。从政策利率，到点阵图，再到经济预测，"分歧"可能无处不在。 自8月杰克逊霍尔央行年会之后，市场普遍预期美联储将转向关注疲软的劳动力市场，多数押注此次会 议将降息25个基点。然而在美联储内部，主席鲍威尔正面临"两面夹击"的艰难局面：一边是主张更大幅 度降息的美联储理事，另一边则是倾向于维持利率不变的地区联储行长。 美国盈透证券首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克表示："美联储会抑制市场对未来继续降息的乐观预期，所以 可称之为'偏鹰派的降息'。现在通胀并没有得到控制，几项通胀指标其实都在逐步攀升。" 数据显示，无论是消费者价格指数（CPI）还是美联储更关注的个人消费支出数据（PCE），均高于美 联储2%的通胀目标。加之当前美国的金融 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to implement its first interest rate cut of the year by 25 basis points, with a lower likelihood of a 50 basis point cut due to signs of slowing employment growth [1][3] - Recent economic data supports a more accommodative monetary policy, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, marking the first negative growth in non-farm employment since 2020 [3] - Inflation is showing signs of cooling, with the August CPI rising 2.9% year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [3] Group 2 - Key focus areas for the upcoming Federal Reserve decision include the potential adjustments in economic growth forecasts due to consumer slowdown and labor market weakness, as well as any changes in core PCE inflation expectations [7] - The market is particularly attentive to the "dot plot" from the Federal Reserve, which indicates a potential 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with expectations of a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end [5][7] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's statements and the dot plot will be crucial in determining future volatility [5] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged over 40% this year, outperforming major assets like the S&P 500, and have recently reached record highs, supported by a declining dollar index [7][9] - The trajectory of gold prices post-Federal Reserve decision will depend on the signals released by the Fed and market interpretations of those signals [7][9] - A dovish stance from the Federal Reserve could enhance gold's appeal, potentially pushing prices above $3,700, while a hawkish stance may lead to profit-taking and short-term price corrections [9]

Core Viewpoint - September is historically the most challenging month for the U.S. stock market, with increased volatility and a tendency for seasonal weakness [1][2] Group 1: Historical Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, with only 42.2% of years showing an increase [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also perform poorly in September, with average declines of 1.1% and 0.9% respectively [2] - Historical data shows that if the market is in an upward trend before September, the seasonal weakness may dissipate [2][3] Group 2: Recent Market Trends - The U.S. stock market had a strong performance in August, with the DJI rising 3.2%, marking its best August since 2020 [3] - The Russell 2000 index saw a significant increase of 7% in August, the best monthly performance in 25 years [3] - The S&P 500 was above its 200-day moving average, which historically correlates with a higher likelihood of positive performance in September [4][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Expectations - Key events influencing September's market include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding whether the rate cut will be dovish or hawkish is a significant factor for market direction [5] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has recently dropped, indicating a low volatility environment that may precede increased market fluctuations [5][6][7]