北京时间今天凌晨，美联储召开了12月FOMC会议，以9票赞成、3票反对的投票结果决定降息25bp至 3.50%-3.75%。本次利率决定和会后表述总体超出市场"鹰派降息"的基准预期，虽然点阵图偏鹰，但会 后鲍威尔讲话偏鸽，叠加超预期的资产购买计划，带来股债齐涨。 发布会上鲍威尔的发言态度并不强硬，针对如下要点给出答复： 1．利率：不认为下次加息是目前任何人的基准假设。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 2．经济：政府关门可能对本季度的经济活动造成了压力，但这些影响应该会被下一季度更高的增长所 抵消。消费者支出似乎保持稳健，企业固定投资继续扩张。相比之下，房地产领域的活动仍然疲软。 3．劳动力市场：虽然劳动力市场的逐渐降温仍在继续，但劳动力市场的供给也大幅下降，所以失业率 并没有变动太多。不认为将出现严重失业情况。 点阵图中位数显示的降息路径偏鹰，2026年仅有一次降息。本次会议点阵图指向的降息中位数与上次相 似，即2026年和2027年分别降息25bp。然而，2026年点阵图分布更加分散，这代表本次决议的真实反对 声音其实更大，有7位票委认为明年维持不变甚至需要更鹰，即除了本次反对降息的2名票委外，另有 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Implications - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since September, but the accompanying economic projections and Powell's comments conveyed a hawkish tone regarding future rate paths [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2026 remains at 3.25%-3.5%, suggesting limited room for further rate cuts in the coming year [1] - Higher terminal rates imply that discount rates will not decline as quickly as previously expected, which could create a valuation ceiling for high-growth tech stocks [3] Group 2: Nasdaq 100 Index and Liquidity Factors - The Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) and initiate a new plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury Bills monthly is expected to inject significant liquidity into the market, which historically correlates positively with the Nasdaq 100 index [4][5] - This monthly liquidity increase translates to nearly $500 billion annually, providing a supportive environment for tech stocks by lowering short-term financing costs [5] - The Fed's dual approach of suppressing irrational valuation bubbles through rate guidance while injecting liquidity helps create a more stable trading environment for tech stocks [5] Group 3: Oracle's Financial Performance and AI Investment Cycle - Oracle's recent earnings report revealed a stark contrast between a 438% year-over-year increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) and quarterly revenue of $16.06 billion, which fell short of market expectations [10] - This discrepancy highlights the physical bottlenecks in AI infrastructure, indicating that while demand is strong, supply constraints may hinder revenue realization [10] - Oracle's capital expenditures surged to $20.5 billion over the past six months, leading to negative free cash flow, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth model in a higher interest rate environment [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Nasdaq 100 index's valuation is currently based on expectations of flawless AI execution, but Oracle's case illustrates the uncertainties in execution and the challenges posed by high capital expenditures [12] - The transition to a higher interest rate environment necessitates a focus on cash flow generation, shifting investor preferences from PEG ratios to free cash flow yield as a key valuation metric [11][12] - The market is expected to experience a divergence, favoring companies that demonstrate strong capital discipline and cash flow conversion capabilities in a high-rate environment [12]

此外，利率"点阵图"的预期中位值显示，美联储官员们预计明年仅降息一次，这与今年9月时的预测一致。 在市场看来，美联储官员内部就降息路径的分歧加剧，加之鲍威尔的表态，美联储接下来可能会暂停降息 进程，本次议息会议虽然降息，却传递出了"鹰派"信号。即便如此，利率期货市场仍预计美联储明年可能 降息两次。美联储在本次会议公布的经济展望中，小幅下调了今明两年的通胀预期，这让交易员看到了更 多降息的希望。 美联储"鹰派"降息，部分投资者担忧美联储明年降息幅度比预期更窄，因而减少持仓，国际金价周三小幅 下跌。 当地时间周三，美联储如期降息25个基点，这是今年以来的第3次降息。美联储主席鲍威尔还宣布，将开始 购买短期债券来稳定货币市场流动性。市场此前对美联储本月降息的预期落实，交易员看好美联储明年继 续降息的可能，投资者风险偏好获得提振，资金从科技股流出，向工业、零售、金融等类别股票轮动。当 天，美国三大股指集体收涨，道指上涨近500点。截至收盘，道指涨1.05%，标普500指数涨0.67%，纳指涨 0.33%。 美联储"鹰派"降息25个基点 明年降息路径不明朗 市场周三聚焦美联储利率决议与鲍威尔讲话。美联储本次降息25个基 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations for a "hawkish rate cut" [2][7][9] - This marks the third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, totaling a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points for the year [2][7][9] - Despite the rate cut, the dot plot indicates a conservative outlook for future rate cuts, with expectations of only one cut in 2026, which dampens market optimism for a prolonged easing cycle [2][7][9] Group 2 - The A-share market's core drivers remain focused on domestic economic fundamentals and corporate earnings expectations, despite external monetary policy changes [3][7] - The domestic economy is in a recovery phase, but there are still issues such as insufficient total demand that need to be addressed, and signals of sustained improvement in corporate profitability require further confirmation [3][7] - Investors are advised to focus on low-entry opportunities and align with sector rotation trends, selecting stocks with earnings support while avoiding high-valuation stocks lacking performance backing [3][8] Group 3 - On the trading day, the three major indices in the A-share market experienced collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3873.32 points, down 0.70% [5] - The trading volume for the day was 18,571 billion, indicating a general lack of market enthusiasm and profitability [5] - Specific sectors such as wind power equipment and non-metallic materials saw gains, while real estate and commercial retail sectors faced declines [4][5] Group 4 - The controlled nuclear fusion concept stocks were notably active, driven by ongoing international cooperation in nuclear energy, highlighting its potential as a significant future energy source [6] - The commercial aerospace sector also showed resilience, benefiting from recent policy clarifications and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies, which provide a more stable development environment for the industry [6]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a slight recovery against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.6663, with a daily increase of 0.0150% and a range between 0.6674 and 0.6656, reflecting recent narrow fluctuations [1] - The core logic behind the strengthening of the AUD is the divergence in policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with Australia's economic recovery and structural changes in the commodity market, which support the AUD and suppress the USD index [1] - The RBA's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% during its last meeting of the year on December 9 is a key support factor, as it signals a cautious stance towards inflation and economic recovery, significantly reducing market expectations for rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The inflation in Australia has rebounded after a significant drop from its peak in 2022, with the RBA noting that some of this increase may be temporary, but there are concerns about persistent inflationary signs [1] - Economic recovery in Australia is driven by consumption and investment, with a recovering real estate market and strong wage growth, despite rising unemployment and slowing job growth [1] - The Fed's recent "hawkish rate cut" on December 11, which lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, is interpreted as a signal to slow down easing, while the resumption of short-term Treasury purchases starting December 12 is seen as dovish, alleviating pressure on the AUD [2] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair is in a range-bound pattern, with key support at 0.6650 and resistance at 0.6700 and 0.6750, suggesting that market operations are primarily range-based [2] - Future focus will be on the policy directions of both central banks, with potential volatility in the AUD depending on RBA officials' comments regarding inflation control or policy adjustments, as well as Fed officials' statements and US core data impacting USD trends [2] - Fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, directly affect the supply and demand for the AUD, and changes in global risk sentiment will also impact the commodity currency [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the third consecutive cut since September, aligning with market expectations [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated the initiation of "reserve management purchases" starting December 12, which is seen as a move to slightly expand the balance sheet and inject more liquidity into the market [1] - The Fed's recent decision is characterized as a "hawkish cut," with Powell suggesting a pause in the rate-cutting process moving forward [1] Group 2 - The median forecast in the Fed's dot plot indicates that officials expect only one rate cut next year, leading to a reassessment of the market's optimistic expectations for two to three cuts [1] - This shift in expectations is likely to increase volatility in risk asset prices [1] - The price of silver, which has both safe-haven and industrial characteristics, has been rising to new highs, driven by the Fed's rate cut expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, while indicating a significant internal division among policymakers regarding future monetary policy actions [2][5][10]. Group 1: Rate Cut and Internal Disagreement - The target range for the federal funds rate has been adjusted from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75% [2]. - This decision faced three dissenting votes, the highest level of disagreement in six years, reflecting concerns over inflation and the labor market [4][6]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one more 25 basis point cut next year, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts compared to this year [2][10]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Future Actions - The CME tools show an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week, with a 71% chance of another cut by June next year [2]. - The term "hawkish cut" has been used to describe the Fed's current stance, indicating a potential pause in rate cuts after this decision [2][3]. - The Fed has initiated a reserve management program, planning to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities to address liquidity pressures in the money market [8][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed's statement has shifted to emphasize the "magnitude and timing" of future rate adjustments, indicating a higher threshold for further cuts [7][8]. - The economic outlook has been adjusted, with an increase in GDP growth expectations and a slight decrease in PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years [11][12]. - Powell noted that inflation risks are skewed upward while employment risks are skewed downward, highlighting a challenging economic environment [15][16].

目前，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）委员内部的分歧正日益凸显。从点阵图来看，核心信息在于，与9月的观点一致，委员会中位委员仍然认为未 来两年内每年仅需降息一次。 然而，联邦公开市场委员会委员们当前对于利率政策的观点存在显著分歧，这使得市场对于未来宽松政策的力度难以形成明确预期。 CA Markets倾向于认为2026年美联储或将实施两次降息。不过，考虑到联邦政府停摆导致相关经济数据缺失，美联储当前保留政策调整余地的做 法，在我们看来是一种审慎且合理的策略。 美联储本次会议并未如市场预期般释放"鹰派降息"信号，美元汇率随即走低。此次会议中，仅两名委员持鹰派立场并反对降息，反对人数少于投资 者此前的预期。鲍威尔暗示，美联储或将在1月份按兵不动，但他同时明确表示，本轮货币政策不会长期维持观望状态，其表态透露出美联储愿意进 一步降息以支撑劳动力市场的政策倾向。 ...

12月11日亚洲早盘国际金价一度走高，现货黄金站上4240美元/盎司，盘中突然跳水转为下跌。纽约期 金也回落收窄涨幅。 来源：羊城晚报 近日，广东一珠宝店店员发视频称一位东北阿姨1984年买的黄金，当时仅47元/克，阿姨买了50克，花 了两千多块钱。 中金研究分析称，美联储如预期在12月会议上降息25个基点，但反对降息的官员增至两人，显示进一步 降息的门槛正在抬高。与此同时，鲍威尔的表态并不强硬，加之美联储宣布将启动短期国库券（T- bills）购买操作，帮助缓和了市场的担忧。 能按兵不动，下一次降息或在2026年3月。 金投网数据显示，2025年12月10日国内大多数金店金价继续维持不变，市场呈现整体持稳格局。仅周生 生价格小幅上涨4元/克，报1328元/克，与多家金店并列今日最高价。 此前被充分计入的"鹰派降息"预期出现反转，加剧了市场波动。展望未来，鉴于经济与就业仍面临下行 压力，预计美联储或将在2026年继续降息；但考虑到通胀粘性犹存，降息节奏趋于放缓。2026年1月可 美股三大股指期货跌幅扩大，纳斯达克100指数期货一度下跌1.5%，标普500指数期货也跌近1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75% reflects a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with market focus shifting to the Fed's statements and 2026 forecasts [1][2]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The December decision illustrates a "hawkish cut," with a median forecast indicating only one rate cut in 2026, which is below market expectations, highlighting ongoing inflation concerns [2][3]. - There is a notable voting divergence among Fed officials, with 9 supporting the cut, 2 maintaining the status quo, and 1 advocating for a 50 basis point reduction, indicating internal debates on the easing path [2][3]. - Despite the hawkish tone of the dot plot, Chairman Powell's press conference and the December Economic Projections Summary (SEP) conveyed a more dovish sentiment [4]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized a flexible and data-dependent approach to future rate adjustments, with no anticipated rate hikes, supporting a dovish stance [5]. - Signs of a slowing labor market support the current easing position, and the Fed remains open to further easing if inflation or labor conditions necessitate it [6][7]. - The December SEP suggests a potential dovish bias, with core PCE inflation expected to decline to 2.5% and overall PCE inflation projected at 2.4% by 2026 [7]. Market Impact - The dovish tone from the Fed has suppressed earlier hawkish speculation, putting downward pressure on the US dollar [10][15]. - The USD has broken key support levels, indicating a potential new downtrend, with the dovish stance suggesting continued downside risks and short-term rebounds providing selling opportunities [13][15]. Canadian Central Bank Insights - The Bank of Canada (BoC) maintained its interest rate, indicating that the current rate is "generally appropriate" to keep inflation near the 2% target while supporting economic adjustments [13][14]. - The BoC's forward guidance suggests limited room for further rate cuts if inflation and economic activity align with October's forecasts, interpreted as slightly hawkish [14]. - The BoC's pause in policy adjustments strengthens the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, with market expectations shifting towards stability rather than further easing [14][16].