Core Insights - As of August 26, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a gold holding of 959.92 tonnes, which represents an increase of 1.43 tonnes from the previous trading day [1]. Group 1 - The total gold holding of SPDR Gold Trust is 959.92 tonnes [1]. - The increase in gold holdings is 1.43 tonnes compared to the previous trading day [1].

Core Insights - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 1,248.8 tons in Q2 2025, with a significant rise in value by 45% to $13.2 billion [1][6] - Central banks remain a major source of gold demand, although their purchases decreased by 21% to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025 [2][5] - The second quarter saw a 4% increase in gold recycling, reaching 347.2 tons [2] Supply and Demand Overview - Gold supply in Q2 2025 includes: - Gold mine production of 908.6 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year [4] - Total gold supply of 1,248.8 tons, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4] - Gold demand breakdown for Q2 2025: - Jewelry consumption decreased by 14% to 341.0 tons, the lowest since Q3 2020 [5] - Investment demand surged by 78%, with bar demand increasing by 21% [5][6] - Total gold demand reached 1,079.0 tons, a 10% year-on-year increase [4] Market Trends - The long-term trend of central banks reallocating assets from U.S. assets to gold remains unchanged, despite a downward revision in expected central bank purchases for the year [5] - The potential for further increases in gold ETFs is noted, driven by significant inflows in the first half of the year [5]

#行情 上证综指已较4月7日（特朗普宣布“解放日”关税）行情低位反弹20%，势将进入技术性牛市。 https://t.co/6vF1V2A2t9外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):彭博汇编的数据反映中国投资者正将资金从黄金ETF转向国内股票。随着A股走强和金价升势停滞，7月份四大境内黄金ETF（华安易富、博时黄金、易方达黄金和国泰君安）合计净流出约32亿元，势创历史单月最大纪录。 https://t.co/YruiutiK5Z ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing decline in gold prices, which are currently fluctuating above $3,280, influenced by strong U.S. non-farm data that dampens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and supports the dollar [1] - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting he should resign if allegations of misleading Congress regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation are true, emphasizing the need for a chairman who would support rate cuts [2] - The World Gold Council reported a significant increase in global gold ETFs, with a total asset management increase of $38 billion in the first half of the year, driven by strong performance in June [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with key resistance levels at $3,310 and $3,320, while support levels are identified at $3,287 and $3,270 [5] - The daily chart shows that after a rebound, gold prices are facing resistance and continuing a downward trend, with indicators suggesting a bearish outlook in the short term [4][5] - The average trading volume for gold reached a record high of $329 billion per day in the first half of the year, reflecting increased market activity [3]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 165.60 points, or 0.37%, closing at 44,240.76 [2] - The Nasdaq increased slightly by 5.94 points, or 0.03%, closing at 20,418.46 [2] - The S&P 500 fell by 4.46 points, or 0.07%, ending at 6,225.52 [2] - European markets showed positive performance, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 30.41 points, or 0.57%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising by 47.65 points, or 0.54% [2] - Asian markets had mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 260.24 points, or 1.09%, while the Taiwan Weighted Index fell by 66.45 points, or 0.30% [2] Trade Policy Developments - President Trump announced new trade agreements, including a proposed 50% tariff on imported copper, which led to a significant increase in copper prices by 17% [3] - A high tariff of up to 200% on pharmaceuticals is also expected, with a grace period of 18 months for companies to adjust their supply chains [3] - Trump emphasized that tariffs will officially take effect on August 1, 2025, with no possibility of delay [4] Economic Commentary - Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that the current economic conditions warrant a rate cut, citing a study indicating tariffs have no impact on inflation [5] AI Adoption in Japan - Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that only about 27% of the population has used generative AI services, indicating a lag in AI research and application [6] Global Trade Outlook - The UN Conference on Trade and Development reported that global trade is expected to grow by approximately $300 billion in the first half of 2025, with a projected acceleration in growth rates [7][8] - The report highlighted that ongoing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pose risks to trade stability [8] Gold Market Insights - The World Gold Council reported a $38 billion increase in global gold ETFs in the first half of the year, driven by strong performance in June [9] Corporate Leadership Changes - Apple announced that COO Jeff Williams will retire, with Sabih Khan set to take over the role, marking a significant leadership transition within the company [10] Talent Acquisition in Tech - Meta has successfully recruited Ruoming Pang, the head of Apple's foundational models team, to lead its new "Superintelligence Lab," indicating a strategic move to bolster its AI capabilities [13] SpaceX Valuation - SpaceX is reportedly discussing plans to raise funds, with its valuation expected to reach approximately $400 billion, significantly higher than its previous valuation of $350 billion [14] Investment in Smart Glasses - Meta has invested $3.5 billion in EssilorLuxottica, aiming to strengthen its position in the smart glasses market [15] Boeing's Delivery Performance - Boeing reported delivering 150 aircraft in the second quarter of 2025, the highest number for that period since 2018, with a total of 280 aircraft delivered year-to-date [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The medium - to long - term upward trend remains unchanged, but there is a game in short - to medium - term drivers. Trump's policy combination will push up the US federal government debt, weaken the US dollar credit, and with factors like the approaching Fed rate cut, complex global geopolitical situation, and continued central bank gold purchases, the gold price will rise in the long run. However, in the short - to medium - term, factors such as the impact of tariff policies on the US economy, the Fed's rate - cut timing and space, and the potential rebound of the US dollar index will affect the gold price [1][17][18]. - Silver: The medium - term logic is expected to return to the fundamentals, and there will still be downward pressure in the second half of the year. After the recent significant catch - up, the silver price will be influenced by its commodity attributes. With an increase in global supply, a decrease in demand, and a narrowing supply - demand gap in 2025, coupled with risks to industrial and photovoltaic silver demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [2][19][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. 2025 H1 Market Review - Gold: In H1 2025, Trump's policies increased market uncertainty, weakened the US dollar, and with central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, the gold price rose strongly. Gold ETF inflows, especially in April, were a key driving force. After April, the gold price fluctuated at a high level due to policy adjustments and market sentiment changes. COMEX gold rose about 28.2%, and SHFE gold rose about 26.1% [8][9][10]. - Silver: It generally followed the gold price but was restricted by its industrial attributes. After being sold off in early April, it rebounded and reached a new high in late May and early June. COMEX silver rose about 22.7%, and SHFE silver rose about 18.7% [10]. 3.2 2. 2025 H2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold: The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, continued central bank gold purchases, and the approaching Fed rate cut. However, in the short - to medium - term, there are uncertainties in the US economy, Fed policy, and the US dollar index, which will affect the gold price [17][18][19]. - Silver: The medium - term logic will return to the fundamentals. With an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and risks to industrial and photovoltaic demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [19][74]. 3.3 3. Main Macroeconomic Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Medium - to Long - Term Perspective: Gold's Upward Trend Remains Unchanged - The tariff policy and fiscal deficit expansion will weaken the US dollar credit, and the demand for hedging against the US dollar credit risk will support the gold price [20][21]. - Global central banks will continue to purchase gold due to the increasing US dollar credit risk and geopolitical uncertainties, providing support for the gold price [22]. - The market's hedging demand will remain due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and geopolitical situations [23]. 3.3.2 Short - to Medium - Term Perspective: Driving Forces Are in a Game - **Impact of Tariff Policy Negotiations and Tax Cuts on the US Economy**: The tariff policy may cause the US economy to weaken, boosting the precious metals market. However, a controllable trade agreement and the implementation of tax and expenditure bills may offset the negative impact on the precious metals market. The US employment market is relatively stable but has hidden risks, inflation may rise in the second half of the year, and consumer spending and PMI show signs of slowdown [30][31][41]. - **Approaching Fed Rate Cut but Limited Space**: The Fed is expected to cut rates, but the timing may be late and the space limited, which will support the precious metals market but also restrict the short - term upward space of the gold price [44][45][48]. - **Be Wary of the Risk of a Temporary Rebound in the US Dollar**: Although the US dollar index has declined, factors such as the high 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US's relative economic advantage may limit its further decline and even cause a rebound, which will suppress the gold price [56][57]. 3.4 4. Fundamental Influencing Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Gold: The Driving Force of Key Factor ETFs May Weaken in H2 - **Supply**: In Q1 2025, global gold supply increased slightly, with an increase in mined gold and a decrease in recycled gold. Gold inventories in major exchanges generally increased [60]. - **Demand**: In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased, with a significant increase in investment demand, especially gold ETF inflows. In May, gold ETFs had a net outflow. In H2, economic uncertainties will support gold investment demand, but the driving force of gold ETFs may weaken, while central bank gold purchases will still support the price [65][66]. 3.4.2 Silver: The Medium - Term Logic Is Expected to Return to the Fundamentals - **Supply**: The global silver supply is expected to increase in 2025, and the visible inventory has increased. The US may impose tariffs on key metals, but the inventory has not decreased significantly [74][75]. - **Demand**: The global silver demand is expected to decrease in 2025, with a decline in physical demand in various fields and a slowdown in photovoltaic silver demand. However, investment demand is expected to increase, which will support the silver price to some extent. The silver price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [80][81][88].

Group 1 - The State Council's executive meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality growth in the real estate market, focusing on long-term strategies and systematic policy support [3] - Guangzhou plans to optimize real estate policies by fully canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price limits, while also lowering down payment ratios and interest rates to better meet housing consumption needs [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of six months [5] Group 2 - In May, new RMB deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with experts attributing the differences in deposit and loan growth to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission published the "Procedures for Programmatic Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which will take effect on October 9, 2025, to enhance the regulation of programmatic trading [29] - The State Council meeting reviewed measures to optimize the collection of drugs and medical supplies, aiming to promote standardized and institutionalized procurement practices [34] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the prevention and governance of telecom network fraud, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue [35] - The market supervision authority announced ongoing efforts to strengthen the recall of defective consumer goods sold online, ensuring consumer rights and market order [37] - Nezha Automobile has officially entered bankruptcy reorganization procedures, indicating a significant development in the company's financial status [38][39]

Financial Data - In May, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year; new RMB loans were nearly 620 billion yuan [2] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but up 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Procedures for the Management of Program Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which mandates regular checks on program traders' reported information, focusing on high-frequency traders [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that CATL's H-shares will be included in the southbound trading list of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from the next trading day [2] Industry Oversight - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized increased antitrust enforcement in the pharmaceutical sector to protect public health and ensure affordable medication [3] - A joint notice from 14 ministries outlined key points for correcting misconduct in the pharmaceutical sales and medical services sectors, focusing on enhancing regulatory responsibilities and addressing corruption [4] Market Measures - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice urging market participants to implement risk control measures amid volatile international conditions [5] - The Beijing Stock Exchange extended the exemption from transaction fees for bond trading until December 31, 2026 [7] Company News - Huayang New Materials announced it is not involved in the rare earth permanent magnet sector [7] - China National Petroleum Engineering signed a contract worth 1.601 billion USD for the Atawi GPP project [7] - Cheng Tian Wei Ye highlighted risks related to the commercialization of new technologies and products [7] - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables will have its controlling shareholder change to Shenze Ruitai and will resume trading on June 16 [7] - Zhuhai International Electric Power signed two strategic cooperation agreements for solar projects in Zambia [7] - Pan-Asia Micro-Optics plans to establish a subsidiary in Changzhou to enhance its medical application layout [8] - Dongshan Precision intends to invest up to 5.935 billion yuan in Solstice Optoelectronics to expand its optical communication layout [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin price surpassed $110,000 in May 2025, equivalent to approximately 800,000 RMB, marking a historical high and raising questions about its value and nature [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Fundamentals - Bitcoin was created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto and operates on a decentralized blockchain technology, which allows for secure and unalterable transaction records [1][3] - The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, giving it an anti-inflationary characteristic, leading some to refer to it as "digital gold" [1][3] Group 2: Price Surge Drivers - U.S. policy developments, particularly the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, have injected liquidity into the digital currency market, encouraging institutional investment [3] - Companies, including Strategy, have accumulated over $50 billion in Bitcoin, increasing market demand [3] - Rising macroeconomic risks, such as the U.S. debt crisis and geopolitical tensions, have led investors to view Bitcoin as a hedge, decoupling its price movements from traditional assets like gold [3] Group 3: Mining Challenges - Mining Bitcoin requires significant computational power, with a high-end home computer yielding only 0.0018 Bitcoin per day, necessitating 556 days to mine a single coin [5] - The cost of electricity for mining can exceed the value of the Bitcoin mined, making it economically unfeasible for average individuals [6] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape in China - China has banned Bitcoin mining due to its high energy consumption, which contradicts the country's carbon reduction goals [9] - The financial risks associated with Bitcoin's price volatility and its use in illicit activities have led to stringent regulations [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Predictions for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025 range from $150,000 to $200,000, but these projections come with significant risks related to policy changes and market competition [11] - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin reflects both a technological revolution and a speculative market, suggesting that for most individuals, the dream of quick wealth is unrealistic [11]

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has a holding of 936.51 tons, which remains unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The ETF's holding data is updated around 5:30 AM Beijing time from Tuesday to Saturday, reflecting the previous day's holdings [4] Group 2 - Recent changes in the ETF holdings include an increase of 0.86 tons and a decrease of 2.29 tons on specific dates, indicating fluctuations in investor sentiment [3]