Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.1 times and PB at 1.8 times, positioned at the historical 77% and 39% percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.9 times and PB at 1.3 times, at the historical 63% and 42% percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14 times and PB at 1.5 times, at the historical 62% and 32% percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 32.4 times and PB at 2.2 times, at the historical 60% and 43% percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 46.5 times and PB at 2.4 times, at the historical 66% and 44% percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 59.5 times and PB at 2.6 times, at the historical 76% and 60% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 39.8 times and PB at 5.1 times, at the historical 32% and 57% percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 149.6 times and PB at 5.9 times, at the historical 95% and 62% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE is at 2.8 times and PB at 3.5 times, at the historical 20% and 57% percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, prices continue to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures down 1.6% and spot prices stable [3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 3.0% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales up by 27.2% [3] Cyclical Industries - The copper price increased by 4.4%, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market shows that the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) has a PE of 21.0x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 38th historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 42nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.2x and a PB of 5.1x, at the 30th and 56th percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 149.7x and a PB of 5.9x, at the 95th and 62nd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 7.0%, while the average price of silicon wafers fell by 3.1% [2] - Battery materials saw cobalt prices rise by 1.1% and nickel by 2.4%, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices increasing by 6.7% [2] - Wind and solar power installations from January to October 2025 increased by 52.9% and 39.5% year-on-year, respectively [2] Financial Sector - Insurance premiums from January to October 2025 grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration compared to the previous nine months [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.9%, while the price index for cement fell by 0.7% [2] - Glass prices rose by 1.5% for spot prices and 5.7% for futures [2] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.9%, while the wholesale price of pork fell by 0.4% [2] - The price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.04% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - The value of overseas contracted engineering projects increased by 7.9% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [2] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.19 per barrel [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 12.5% [2]

Group 1: A-Share Valuation Overview - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 28, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.0x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the historical 77% and 38% percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the historical 63% and 42% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.2x and a PB of 5.1x, at the historical 30% and 56% percentiles [2] Group 2: Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Group 3: Industry Midstream Economic Tracking - In the New Energy sector, the photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing downward pressure on spot prices, while futures market sentiment remains high [3] - The battery materials sector shows a significant increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate by 6.7%, with a near 200% increase over the past quarter [3] - The financial sector reports an 8.0% year-on-year growth in insurance premium income for the first ten months of 2025, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [3] Group 4: Real Estate Chain Insights - The steel market shows a 0.9% increase in spot prices for rebar, while the cement price index has decreased by 0.7% [3] - The glass market has seen a 1.5% increase in spot prices, indicating a recovery in demand due to expectations of new real estate policies [3] Group 5: Consumer Sector Trends - The average price of live pigs has decreased by 3.9%, while the wholesale price of pork has dropped by 0.4% [3] - The white liquor market shows a slight recovery in wholesale price index, with a 5.1% decrease in the price of Feitian Moutai [3] Group 6: Midstream Manufacturing and Engineering - The foreign contracting engineering business has seen a 7.9% year-on-year growth in completed amounts for the first ten months of 2025, with a robust backlog of orders [3] - The macroeconomic environment has led to a general increase in metal prices, with COMEX gold prices rising by 4.8% [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of November 21, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 20.6x and a PB of 1.7x, positioned at the 74th and 36th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 43rd percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 37.7x and a PB of 4.9x, at the 27th and 51st percentiles, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical data [2][5] - The STAR 50 Index shows a significantly high PE of 145.1x and a PB of 5.7x, at the 95th and 60th percentiles, suggesting extreme valuation levels [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2][7] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][7] - The Medical Services industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with upstream polysilicon futures prices increasing by 7.8%, while the average price of silicon wafers decreased by 0.9% [2][3] - Battery materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate have seen a significant price increase of 15.4%, with a cumulative rise of nearly 180% over the past quarter [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while cement prices have stabilized with a 0.4% increase in the national cement price index [2][3] - Glass prices have shown volatility, with a 3.9% decrease in spot prices, indicating a challenging market environment [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has decreased by 0.8%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the agricultural sector [2][3] - The aviation sector has shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in passenger turnover for October 2025 [2][3] Technology and TMT - The domestic integrated circuit and optoelectronic device production increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating growth in the technology sector [2][3] - The export value of optical communication modules has decreased by 16.9%, reflecting challenges in the international market [2][3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.8%, closing at $62.51 per barrel, indicating fluctuations in the energy market [2][3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 7.1%, suggesting a rise in shipping demand [2][3]

Group 1: A-Share Valuation Overview - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 21, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 20.6x and a PB of 1.7x, positioned at the 74th and 36th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 43rd historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 37.7x and a PB of 4.9x, which are at the 27th and 51st historical percentiles, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other indices [2][5] Group 2: Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2][7] - The Semiconductor and Communication sectors have PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile, indicating high market expectations [2][7] - The Medical Services industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile, suggesting potential undervaluation [2][7] Group 3: Industry Midstream Economic Tracking - In the New Energy sector, the photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with upstream polysilicon prices rising by 7.8% while downstream battery and module prices are under downward pressure [2][3] - The real estate chain shows a slight increase in rebar prices by 0.6% and cement prices by 0.4%, while glass prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels [2][3] - In the consumption sector, pork prices have decreased by 0.8%, while the aviation sector shows a recovery with a 8.9% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in October 2025 [2][3] Group 4: Technology and TMT Sector Insights - The domestic integrated circuit and optoelectronic device production increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating growth in the technology sector [2][3] - The communication sector has seen a 16.9% year-on-year decline in optical communication module export value, reflecting challenges in international markets [2][3] Group 5: Commodity and Cyclical Industry Trends - The metals market is under pressure with copper prices down by 0.6% and aluminum down by 1.8%, influenced by tighter liquidity conditions [2][3] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.8% to $62.51 per barrel, reflecting global supply dynamics [2][3] - The coal market remains stable with prices for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal holding steady, while coking coal prices decreased by 2.0% [2][3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of November 14, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 12.0x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 65th and 45th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 33rd and 58th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the real estate, retail, chemical pharmaceuticals, and IT services sectors is above the 85th historical percentile for PE [2][3] - The semiconductor and communication sectors have PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile [2][3] Industry Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain's spot prices continue to decline, with polysilicon futures prices rising by 1.5% while the average price of silicon wafers dropped by 3.3% [2][3] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surged by 13.8%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 140% [2][3] - In October 2025, the retail sales of new energy vehicles grew by 7.3% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 8.4 percentage points compared to September [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks in Q3 2025 was 1.52%, a slight increase of 2.5 basis points from Q2 [2][3] - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42%, indicating manageable overall risk despite asset quality differentiation across different business lines [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The sales area of commercial housing from January to October 2025 decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a widening decline compared to the previous nine months [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to October 2025 fell by 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline rate also expanding [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 1.5%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.9% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to October 2025 grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous nine months [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to October 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure investment declined by 0.1% [2][3] - Excavator sales in October 2025 grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 2.4% [2][3] Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.24 per barrel, reflecting a 0.8% increase [2][3] - The price of thermal coal rose by 2.1% to 834 RMB per ton, driven by increased demand due to colder weather [2][3]

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points again after ten years, highlighting the differences in market conditions, valuation levels, and ownership structures compared to previous instances in 2007, 2008, and 2015 [6][13]. Valuation Levels - The current market valuation is compared using two indicators: the stock-bond yield ratio and the Buffett Indicator (total market capitalization/GDP). The stock-bond yield ratio for the CSI 300 is at 5.03, which is slightly below the median of the past decade, while the overall A-share market's ratio is at 2.59, also below its median [7][10]. - The Buffett Indicator for the A-share market is currently at 79%, which is lower than the 84% seen in December 2021 and significantly below the 95% during the peak of the 2015 bull market. This suggests that there is still potential for upward movement in the index if it approaches historical highs [10][11]. Ownership Structure - The ownership structure of the market has shifted significantly. Ten years ago, retail investors and speculative funds dominated, while now institutional investors hold over 40% of the free-floating market capitalization, with large-cap stocks primarily owned by major institutions [13]. - The article suggests that retail investors may take time to shift their funds from savings to the stock market, indicating a gradual transition rather than an immediate influx of capital [14][15]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of a measured approach to investing, suggesting that products like "fixed income plus" could see increased demand as retail investors gradually move their excess savings into the market. It estimates that if 20% of the anticipated 4.5-5 trillion yuan in excess savings enters the stock market, it could result in an additional 1 trillion yuan in investments [15][16]. - The article concludes that the current 4000-point mark may represent a slow bull market phase, encouraging investors to adopt strategies that align with their risk tolerance and investment beliefs rather than comparing themselves to others [16].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a significant milestone with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a 10-year high, approaching the 4000-point mark, driven by strong market sentiment and positive economic indicators [1][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.18% at 3996.94 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to 13489.40 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.98% to 3234.45 points [4]. - Over 3300 stocks in the market showed gains, with a total trading volume of 23.566 billion yuan across the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [1][4]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks led the market rally, with significant gains in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and materials [4]. - Notable stocks included Jiangbolong, which surged 17.88%, and several others in the storage chip sector hitting their daily limits [4]. - Conversely, sectors like gaming and real estate experienced declines, with companies such as Youzu Interactive and Giant Network seeing notable drops [4]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data has shown positive trends, with industrial profits for large enterprises in China reaching 53,732 billion yuan from January to September, marking a 3.2% year-on-year increase [5]. - In September alone, profits grew by 21.6%, indicating a strong recovery in the industrial sector, particularly in high-tech manufacturing [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts express confidence in the A-share market's future performance, citing factors such as the emergence of competitive enterprises in the tech sector and a favorable interest rate environment [6][7]. - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, with the Shanghai Composite Index's dividend yield remaining attractive compared to 10-year government bond yields [6][7]. - The potential for the index to break the 4000-point barrier is viewed positively, with expectations of continued upward momentum in the market [6][7].