Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is characterized by instability, with volatility, rotating leadership, and uneven growth becoming the new normal [1][2] - The concept of a K-shaped economy is highlighted, indicating bifurcations in the equity market and rapid sector rotations [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance without significant changes, similar to its previous timeout period [4] - There is a wider range of expectations among FOMC members regarding the future of the Fed funds rate, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and instability [6] Recession and Economic Performance - Manufacturing has been in a recession for several years, struggling to recover, as indicated by the ISM manufacturing index remaining below 50 [8] - In contrast, the services sector continues to show strength, offsetting weaknesses in manufacturing and housing, which is also attempting to recover from its own recession [9][10] Bond Yields and Stock Market Dynamics - There has been a shift in the correlation between bond yields and stock prices, with historical trends showing both positive and negative correlations depending on the economic backdrop [12][14] - The market is currently navigating between two regimes: one where bond yields are influenced by inflation and another where they are driven by growth [13][14] Investment Strategy - A GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach is favored in the current environment, focusing on positive earnings revisions and balance sheet strength [15][16]

美国"K型经济"背景下，美元资产的回撤极易引发特朗普在决策上的反转（"TACO"）。 在达沃斯论坛上，特朗普释放出与欧洲达成合作框架的 说法，并撤销关税威胁，欧洲议会随后宣称"重启对欧美贸易协议的表决程序"。美股随后反弹至周初点位，但黄金与白银等避险资产依然走强， 反映全球各国信任度下降导致货币体系分裂的中长期逻辑。 日本财政在稳利率和稳汇率的两难问题对美债产生了负向的外溢效应，日元升值是对这一负向影响的缓解，但无法根本解决市场对财政的担忧。 一方面，日元升值本无基本面支撑，反而会削弱出口竞争力，进一步拖累经济增长；另一方面，日元进一步升值或触发套息交易反转，对美债自 身的市场流动性也会产生反噬。 · 投资要点 · 美元资产迎来"双击时刻"：特朗普针对格陵兰岛的⾔论和关税威胁，以及⾼市早苗宣布提前解散众议院后引来的⽇债抛售，使得美元资产迎来 信⽤破裂和流动性抽离的"双击时刻"。 特朗普针对格陵兰岛的言论和关税威胁后，美元信用破裂交易重现。 特朗普把格陵兰议题抬到"国家安全与主权"的高度，同时对欧洲盟友抛出加 征关税的威胁，美股、债、汇一度出现三杀，美元与美债再次走出"死亡交叉"，黄金、白银避险资产走强，加密货 ...

宏 观 研 究 美元资产的"双击时刻" [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 特朗普针对格陵兰岛的言论和关税威胁，以及高市早苗宣布提前解散众议院后引来 的日债抛售，使得美元资产迎来信用破裂和流动性抽离的"双击时刻"。 投资要点： 集中开工热度高 2026.01.18 新任美联储主席人选再生变数 2026.01.18 美国：消费者信心持续修复 2026.01.11 开年经济温和回暖 2026.01.11 元旦"微度假"热度高 2026.01.04 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 周 报 ...

达沃斯寒风中，全球顶级金融权势人物发出警告：政府财政失控与地缘政治的分裂可能正在抵消AI带来的生产力红利。 债务危机： 城堡证券创始人Ken Griffin抨击各国政府（尤其是美国）的"鲁莽支出"是当前市场的最大威胁，而非私人资本市场。"所有政府都在超支，几乎毫无例 外。" 在2026年世界经济论坛次日的重磅小组讨论中，全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德CEO、"华尔街教父"拉里·芬克（Larry Fink，管理14万亿美元资产）、最 成功的对冲基金之一城堡证券创始人肯·格里芬（Ken Griffin，管理650亿美元资产）、欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）以及著名经济 历史学家亚当·图兹（Adam Tooze）齐聚一堂。 图：从左到右依次为达沃斯主持人安德鲁、贝莱德CEO拉里·芬克、城堡证券创始人肯·格里芬、著名经济历史学家亚当·图兹、欧洲央行行长拉加德 在这场被Griffin戏称为"末日与阴霾（gloom and doom）"的讨论中，嘉宾们深刻剖析了 AI 技术爆炸、飙升的主权债务以及地缘政治碎片化，如何将全球 经济推向一个危险的、"酷似 1929 年前夕"的十字路口——那 ...

在2026年世界经济论坛次日的重磅小组讨论中，全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德CEO、" 华尔街教父"拉里·芬克 （Larry Fink，管理14万亿美元资产）、最成 功的对冲基金之一 城堡证券创始人肯·格里芬 （Ken Griffin，管理650亿美元资产）、 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德 （Christine Lagarde）以及著名经济历 史学家 亚当·图兹 （Adam Tooze）齐聚一堂。 在这场被Griffin戏称为"末日与阴霾（gloom and doom）"的讨论中，嘉宾们 深刻剖析了 AI 技术爆炸、飙升的主权债务以及地缘政治碎片化，如何将全球经济 推向一个危险的、"酷似 1929 年前夕"的十字路口——那个在技术狂欢后走向大萧条的时代。 核心要点提炼： 历史镜像： 欧央行行长拉加德与历史学家Adam Tooze 警告，当前的 "技术繁荣+贸易保护+地缘政治分裂" 与 1920 年代走向 1930 年代大萧条的路径存在惊人相似。 债务危机： 城堡证券创始人Ken Griffin抨击各国政府（尤其是美国）的"鲁莽支出"是当前市场的最大威胁，而非私人资本市场。"所有政府都在超支，几乎毫无例外。" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Group 1 - Global financial leaders warn that government fiscal irresponsibility and geopolitical fragmentation may negate the productivity gains from AI [3][4] - The discussion at the World Economic Forum highlighted the parallels between the current economic climate and the pre-Great Depression era, particularly in terms of technological advancements and political failures [4][7] - Ken Griffin emphasized that the core risk in 2026 is not from private capital markets but from reckless government spending, with U.S. national debt reaching $38 trillion [5][7] Group 2 - Adam Tooze pointed out that the current technological boom, driven by AI, mirrors the 1920s' electrification and mass production, but political failures could lead to economic collapse [4][7] - Christine Lagarde noted that global trade is under unprecedented pressure due to geopolitical fragmentation and tariffs, which could hinder the scale effects needed for AI [4][10] - The average tariff between the U.S. and Europe has surged from 2% to over 12%, with a potential rise to 15%, impacting inflation and economic growth [10][11] Group 3 - Larry Fink stated that AI is not a bubble but will lead to significant failures, creating a "K-shaped" economy where large firms benefit disproportionately [6][8] - The cost of developing cutting-edge AI models is around $1 billion, and U.S. capital expenditure on data centers is projected to reach $600 billion this year [8][10] - Lagarde warned that geopolitical divisions and protectionism could obstruct the data flow necessary for AI efficiency [8][10] Group 4 - The discussion highlighted the importance of central bank independence in managing fiscal policies and avoiding reliance on monetary solutions to address structural imbalances [12][33] - Lagarde emphasized that not all debt is equal, and productive investments will always find funding, while non-productive debt will face challenges [33][42] - The need for cooperation in managing AI's development and its implications for society was underscored, with concerns about energy consumption and social consequences [32][34]

Market - US stock market closed higher on January 22, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all rising after President Trump canceled the threat of new tariffs on Europe [2] - Major stocks included Intel, which surged 11.72% after securing a $151 billion contract, and AMD, which rose 7.71% with an upgraded target price [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, increased by 2.21%, with Baidu up 8.17% and Alibaba up 3.87% [4] Macro - President Trump discussed the US economy at the Davos World Economic Forum, claiming that trade and tariff policies have not led to inflation, despite a decrease in actual factory spending and manufacturing jobs [9] - Trump announced that he would not impose tariffs on several European countries after reaching a framework agreement regarding Greenland and the Arctic region [12] - The European Parliament indefinitely postponed the vote on the US-EU trade agreement until the US returns to a cooperative path, citing concerns over US threats to EU member states [27] Company - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the rising demand for skilled trades in the AI era, suggesting that plumbers and electricians could earn six-figure salaries due to increased investment in data centers [31] - Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin plans to deploy 5,408 satellites for a new communication network starting in Q4 2027, aiming for data transmission speeds of up to 6Tbps [30] - The EU is set to review simultaneous bids from Netflix and Paramount for Warner Bros, which could reshape Hollywood's power dynamics [29]

专题：世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯 被誉为 "达沃斯论坛" 的世界经济论坛年会，向来存在着形象观感上的争议。试想一下这样的画面：一 群人乘坐私人飞机齐聚一堂，一边享用牛排，一边登上讨论消除贫困、应对气候变化等崇高议题的论坛 讲台；与此同时，他们还与其他富豪觥筹交错，一心只想让彼此赚得盆满钵满。 但 2026 年的达沃斯论坛，俨然演变成了一场全球精英的紧急会议，目的是应对当下同时存在、且本质 上相互关联的两大威胁。其中一个是摆在明面上的棘手问题 —— 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普定于周三出 席本届峰会，以及他那动辄挥舞贸易战大棒的行事风格；而另一个，则是被称为 "K 型经济" 的、更为 复杂的力量，正威胁着全球秩序的稳定。 "K 型经济" 这一概念由经济学家彼得・阿特沃特率先普及，指的是自 2020 年起，富人群体与贫困群体 之间不断扩大的鸿沟。新冠疫情虽曾对所有人造成冲击，但疫情后的经济复苏却走上了两条截然不同的 道路：富人愈发富裕，而穷人则愈发贫困。 时隔近六年，K 型曲线顶端与底端人群的差距仍在不断拉大。尽管股市走势震荡，但依旧在历史高点附 近波动；尽管选择度假的美国人越来越少，但豪华酒店的预订量依旧坚 ...

被称为达沃斯的年度世界经济论坛聚会一直存在形象问题：一群人坐着私人飞机降落，吃着牛排，出现 在关于消除贫困和应对气候变化（以及其他崇高目标）的小组讨论中，同时与其他富人碰杯，试图让彼 此变得更富。 诚然，达沃斯的人群在理智上明白他们存在"坐私人飞机讨论气候变化"的问题。贝莱德首席执行官、峰 会事实上的"会长"拉里·芬克在周一的开幕致辞中诊断了这一核心问题。 "许多受我们在此讨论的话题影响最大的人永远不会来参加这次会议，"芬克在周一的开幕致辞中 说。"这是本论坛的一个核心张力。达沃斯是一个试图塑造属于所有人的世界的精英聚会。" 芬克以经典的达沃斯形式，把显而易见的事情说得好像是新发现一样。正如几位批评家所指出的，该论 坛历来都有直到为时已晚才看清形势的毛病。 "关于世界的发展方向，达沃斯一直都是错的，"Semafor高级商业编辑Liz Hoffman周二写道。"2010年代 中期的人群误判了英国脱欧、MAGA（让美国再次伟大）以及随之而来的民粹主义浪潮。2020年，代 表们沉浸在共享的奶酪火锅喷泉中，而新冠病毒就在不远处显眼地传播。达沃斯还曾短暂地全押元宇 宙。" 严重的不平等本质上具有破坏性。历史上有大量的例 ...