Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three unexpected aspects of China's export growth in April 2025, indicating resilience in exports despite challenges, with a focus on the strong performance in exports to the U.S., the effectiveness of re-export trade, and the growth in exports to non-U.S. markets [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Export Growth Performance - In April 2025, China's export growth rate was 8.1% year-on-year in dollar terms, down from 12.4% previously, while imports saw a slight decline of -0.2% compared to -4.3% before [2]. - Month-on-month, exports increased by 0.6% from March, showing strong resilience despite potential over-extraction in March and the impact of tariffs in April [2]. Trade Surplus and Economic Support - The trade surplus in April was stronger than the average for the first quarter of 2025, providing support for the economy [3]. Export Structure Analysis - The export structure showed significant differentiation: exports to the U.S. fell sharply by -21.0%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America rose significantly by 20.8% and 17.3%, respectively [4]. - Despite tariff exemptions for mobile phones and computers, export growth in these categories declined, possibly due to prior over-extraction [4]. Unexpected Aspects of Export Growth - The resilience of exports to the U.S. was unexpected, with a month-on-month decline of only about 19 percentage points from seasonal norms, indicating a high dependency of U.S. importers on Chinese goods [5]. - Re-export trade showed unexpected strength, with a combined export growth rate of 4.7% to the U.S., ASEAN, and Latin America, suggesting that re-export trade effectively offset declines in direct exports to the U.S. [5]. - Exports to regions outside the U.S., ASEAN, and Latin America grew by 10.4%, surpassing previous averages, indicating that Chinese exporters are actively seeking new markets [6]. Future Outlook - Short-term export growth may face challenges due to potential cooling in small package exports and capacity constraints in re-export trade, but April's performance demonstrates strong resilience [6].

海关总署数据显示，美国为我第三大贸易伙伴，我与美国贸易总值为1.44万亿元，下降2.1%，占 10.2%。其中，对美国出口1.07万亿元，下降1.5%；自美国进口3699.5亿元，下降3.7%。(海关总署) ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tariffs on various industries, particularly focusing on consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Elasticity and Profit Impact**: A static estimate indicates a tariff elasticity of 1.7, meaning a 10% increase in tariffs leads to a 17% decline in U.S.-China trade volume. This is used to assess the net profit impact across industries based on their revenue exposure to the U.S. market [1][4]. - **Overreaction in Stock Prices**: Industries such as consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals have experienced significant stock price declines that exceed the actual net profit damage, indicating a need for valuation adjustments due to long-term revenue shortages [1][5]. - **Ongoing Risks Under Current Tariff Scenarios**: Maintaining the current 145% equivalent tariff or a worse scenario of 125% equivalent tariff plus a 20% offset could lead to continued risks of stock price declines across various sectors [1][6]. - **Impact of Tariff Increases**: Under the 232 investigation results, a 25% tariff (totaling 45%) will significantly affect kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals, while consumer electronics have been excluded from this category [1][7]. - **Potential for Negotiation Progress**: If U.S.-China negotiations yield positive results, tariffs could revert to a 54% level, allowing for some industries to rebound from their current depressed state [1][8]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: In the most favorable scenario, if the 125% equivalent tariff is removed and only a 20% anti-dumping tariff is applied without introducing new products subject to a 25% tariff, industries such as small appliances, kitchen appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, communication equipment, textile manufacturing, and certain industrial metal sectors could see significant recovery [1][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Long-term Opportunities**: The focus should also be on emerging export categories with low global penetration and potential for growth, such as automotive parts, shipbuilding, machinery, medical devices, and chemical products. Companies with sufficient overseas production capacity in these sectors are better positioned to withstand risks [2][10]. - **Traditional Advantage Industries**: Industries where China holds a significant share of global production and market power, such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), electronic components, and chemicals, are likely to maintain their competitive edge despite high tariffs due to supply chain and cost advantages [10].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% to 3316.11 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.84% and the ChiNext Index gained 1.97%[1] - The Hang Seng Index climbed 0.7% to 22662.71 points, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.37%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong reached 213.4 billion HKD[1] Trade Negotiations - High-level trade talks between the U.S. and China are set to begin this weekend, marking the first confirmed negotiations since the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration[8] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen and Trade Representative Jamison Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland[12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.95%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.77% to 5606.91 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.87%[1] - The European stock indices showed mixed results, with no clear trend established[1] Financial Policies - The People's Bank of China and other financial regulators are scheduled to hold a press conference to discuss measures aimed at stabilizing the market[1]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant shift in the US-China trade dynamics since the implementation of Trump's tariffs, with the share of US imports from China dropping from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024, indicating a rapid "de-China-ization" trend [11][13][31] - Conversely, China's exports to the US have increased by 22% from 2017 to 2024, with the export value rising from 429.8 billion USD to 524.7 billion USD, showcasing a contrasting trend in trade statistics [11][12][31] - The report notes that the indirect value added from China in US imports has grown significantly, from 75.3 billion USD in 2017 to 148.9 billion USD in 2024, a 97.7% increase, indicating resilience in the value chain despite direct trade reductions [26][27][31] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the US's attempts to decouple from China have not significantly reduced the overall trade linkages, with the indirect trade connections through value chains largely compensating for the decline in direct trade [4][31][32] - The report discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs on global supply chains, particularly highlighting that labor-intensive products, which are most affected by tariffs, are the least likely to return to the US [5][37][41] - It emphasizes that the diversification of supply chains is becoming essential for US importers to mitigate tariff risks, particularly in labor-intensive industries, which are expected to accelerate their dispersal [5][48][50]

美国财政部长贝森特和中国副总理何立峰，将在本周晚些时候在瑞士正式开始中美贸易谈判。 美国财政部长贝森特和中国副总理何立峰，将在本周晚些时候在瑞士正式开始中美贸易谈判。 这是迄今为止，第一次由双方确认的谈判开始。 这是迄今为止，第一次由双方确认的谈判开始。 ...

当地时间2025年5月4日，美国总统特朗普表示，"他愿意在某个时候降低对中国的关税，因为目前的关税太高，以至于世界上最大的两个 经济体基本上已经停止了相互的贸易往来"。美国总统特朗普还表示："他相信，中国非常渴望与美国达成贸易协议，并称这样的协议必须 是公平的"。 2025年5月5日，俄罗斯卫星网的报道截图 对于没有信用的人，我们能说什么呢？那就是干我们需要干的，其他随便，再过几个月看看，美国啥境况吧！现在中美这一轮关税大战， 已经到了关键时刻，时间进入5月，美国商品库存即将消耗干净，那么6月，中美这一轮关税大战即将见分晓！对于特朗普来说，你已被纳 入到"失信人清单"，他已经是"失信人"了，我们还和伊朗，俄罗斯，委内瑞拉等国做生意，特朗普当局不是刚刚威胁，要对与伊朗，俄罗 斯，委内瑞拉做生意的国家，征收500%关税，怎么又要降低对华关税了？特朗普知道沃尔玛等美国大型零售商，为什么通知中国制造商 开始发货吗？ 特朗普亲口承认了，目前中国与美国的贸易暂停了 中美贸易利润，美国零售商拿得比东大多，只是这些利润集中在了1%的美国人手中。短期来说，普通美国人也在廉价性高的中国制造的 商品中受益，买不到中国商品，普通的美 ...

Group 1 - The US-China trade tensions are ongoing, with the US threatening to delist Chinese companies from US stock exchanges, which could harm the US capital market more than China in the long run [1] - The current state of the A-share market shows that the ChiNext index needs to rise approximately 6% to recover from recent losses, indicating a challenging environment for growth without strong leading stocks [3] - The offshore RMB has seen a significant rebound, with a single-day increase of over 700 points, driven by improved expectations for US-China trade negotiations and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [5] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve decides to implement monetary easing, it could lead to a short-term upward movement in major indices, but the likelihood of replicating past market rallies is considered low due to diminishing policy effects [7] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on May 6-7 is a critical point for market expectations regarding interest rate changes, which could influence market movements significantly [7]

中国推出外国游客消费退税政策，明确境外旅客在国内购物满500元，出境时凭发票等证明就能退税。针对美国游客，还特别给予3 天落地免签。这可不是拍脑袋想出来的，早就在北京、上海等地试点验证过效果。试点数据很亮眼，来华旅游的游客消费额直接涨 了42% 。美国消费者到中国采购商品，再带回美国，这种非盈利性质的采购，美国海关没办法征税。 据环球时报报道，国家税务总局4月8日公告，将境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"服务推广至全国。这一政策背后，藏着中方应对 美方贸易施压的巧妙布局。 特朗普挑起中美关税大战，目标清晰。一是要打压中国乃至全球商品对美出口，试图缩减每年3500亿美元的中美贸易差额；二是想 促进制造业回流美国，挽救走下坡路的本土制造业。加征关税后，美国对中国商品筑起高墙，可没想到，中方直接换了个思路—— 你不让中国商品出口，那我就把美国消费者请进来。 特朗普（资料图） 中方这招把美国消费者"引进来"，既拉动国内消费，又让中国制造直接触达海外消费者，还打破了美国关税封锁。中国制造早就是 全球市场的硬通货，美国想靠关税打压根本不现实。特朗普的关税政策，短期看好像能捞点好处，长期却让美国制造业竞争力下 降，国内物价飞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff increases announced by the Trump administration, particularly focusing on the impact on U.S. imports from China and the potential for new trade routes through third-party countries [5][10][12]. Group 1: Tariff Impacts - The U.S. announced a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, which is expected to lead to a significant increase in prices for imported goods and a reduction in the volume of imports [5][6]. - The CEO of the Port of Long Beach predicts a 44% decrease in the number of ships arriving in the week of May 4-10 compared to the previous year, indicating a substantial drop in import volumes [7]. - The U.S. is likely to enter a phase of inventory depletion due to reduced imports, which could lead to rising prices and job losses in the logistics sector [9]. Group 2: Trade Opportunities - The article suggests that a new trade route involving China, third-party countries, and the U.S. will emerge, creating significant opportunities for global traders [12][14]. - The 137th Canton Fair saw a notable increase in foreign buyers, with participation from 224,372 overseas purchasers, a 20.2% increase from the previous year, indicating heightened interest in Chinese goods [15][17]. - The article posits that global traders are recognizing the potential for profit through intermediary trade routes as U.S.-China direct trade diminishes [19]. Group 3: Regional Trade Shifts - Vietnam and Mexico are highlighted as beneficiaries of the trade war, with exports to the U.S. from Vietnam projected to nearly double from $83.9 billion in 2018 to $161.9 billion in 2024, a 92.9% increase [27]. - Exports from China to Mexico are expected to grow from $44.0 billion in 2018 to $90.2 billion in 2024, reflecting a 105% increase [28]. - Taiwan is also expected to benefit, with exports from China projected to rise from $48.6 billion in 2018 to $75.2 billion in 2024, a 54.6% increase [29]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the global trade network is vast, and even with reduced direct trade between the U.S. and China, trade will continue through third-party channels [37][38]. - The U.S. faces challenges in imposing tariffs on other countries, as many nations are economically strained and may not easily concede to U.S. demands [31]. - The article argues that the U.S. lacks a coherent long-term strategy for revitalizing its manufacturing sector, which complicates its ability to compete globally [39][43].