软商品日报 2025/07/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of "anti-involution" policies in China is rising, leading to increased market activity and a surge in commodity futures, with several key contracts hitting their daily price limits [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - Coking coal main contract 2509 hit the daily limit, closing at 1259.0 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7.98% and an increase in open interest of over 55,000 contracts, attracting 1.419 billion CNY in inflows. The contract has seen a cumulative increase of over 42% this week [2] - Lithium carbonate main contract 2509 also hit the daily limit, closing at 80,520.0 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7.99% and an increase in open interest of over 54,000 contracts, with 1.211 billion CNY in inflows [2] - Glass main contract 2509 reached the daily limit, closing at 1,362.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.01% and nearly 60,000 contracts added in open interest, resulting in 539 million CNY in inflows [2] - Manganese silicon main contract 2509 hit the daily limit, closing at 6,414.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.02% and over 61,000 contracts added in open interest, attracting 491 million CNY in inflows [2] - Silicon iron main contract 2509 also reached the daily limit, closing at 6,166.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.02% and over 43,000 contracts added in open interest, resulting in 269 million CNY in inflows [2] Group 2: Market Analysis and Expectations - Analysts from Zhonghui Futures noted that a recent meeting among leading manganese enterprises resulted in a preliminary consensus to reduce energy consumption and emissions by 40%. This unexpected news led to the price surges in silicon iron and manganese silicon [3] - The rapid increase in open interest indicates strong market participation, and if no other policy interventions occur, manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to open higher next week, although short-term participants should be cautious of potential pullbacks [3]

近期，多晶硅、焦煤、玻璃等工业品期货价格大幅上涨，吸引了市场各方高度关注。7月7日至22日，南 华商品指数累计上涨4.9%。 笔者认为，本轮商品期货大涨的主要原因有四点： 二是产业的结构性特点。多晶硅是本轮商品上涨行情中的最强品种，其产业结构特点助推了价格上涨。 多晶硅行业是典型的寡头垄断行业，前五大企业份额占全市场的70%左右，头部企业拥有强大的价格主 导能力。当市场出现利多信号时，头部企业可通过减产、提价等方式影响市场价格，短期内极易引发期 货价格大幅波动。然而，价格持续非理性大涨会严重伤害下游产业链。下游企业无法顺利转嫁成本，利 润空间被大幅挤压甚至亏损，长此以往会打击其生产积极性，可能减少生产规模，反过来影响上游多晶 硅等产品需求。这不仅违背政策初衷，还会破坏产业链生态平衡，可能引发系统性风险。 更重要的是，上一轮商品牛市有地产、投资等领域需求的强劲支持，当时房地产蓬勃发展和大规模基础 设施建设极大地拉动了钢铁、煤炭、水泥等工业品的需求，为价格上涨提供了坚实基础。本轮"反内 卷"政策更多是希望引导供需适配。从政策角度看，只有国内需求合理发展，带动经济稳步增长，才可 能是本轮牛市的根本驱动因素。 另一方 ...

Group 1 - The opening of commodity futures saw coking coal's main contract rise over 4% [1] - Shanghai tin and methanol both increased by more than 1% [1] - Multiple commodities including polysilicon, lithium carbonate, soybean meal, soda ash, soybean oil, live pigs, alumina, industrial silicon, rapeseed meal, and pulp all experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday views being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views being oscillating [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.30% to 15075 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: After the previous bearish expectations were gradually digested, the Shanghai rubber futures price entered an oscillating recovery trend. The expected reduction in domestic natural rubber production areas due to the typhoon boosted the rubber price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.46% to 12080 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested bearish factors, combined with the stabilization and rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the upward trend. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the release of domestic policies and their impact on the direction of various commodity futures [1] - A senior futures researcher, Leo, will explain practical cases of a monitoring tool, focusing on real-time order flow and capital bomb features [1] - The session aims to help participants understand market sentiment changes and analyze the future trends of bulk commodities [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the thermal coal market is expected to maintain a relatively strong performance in the near term. The positive fundamentals and news during the peak season have created a synergy, driving coal prices upward. The market may gradually shift from a supply - surplus situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern while ensuring energy supply security [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Recent strict environmental inspections in the Lvliang Zhongyang area have led to the shutdown of one coal mine on July 18 due to gangue treatment issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction due to underground production problems [4]. Demand - As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces reached 2.148 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95,000 tons. The demand for thermal coal during the peak season is well - supported, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4]. Inventory - As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.985 million tons, with a slight weekly decrease of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year, reaching a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal stocks [4].

Group 1 - The majority of domestic commodity futures contracts have risen, with the main contract for aluminum oxide hitting the daily limit, reported at 3405 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99% [1] - The main contract for coking coal rose over 7%, while the main contract for coking coal increased by over 5% [1] - The main contract for glass rose over 7%, and the main contract for soda ash increased by over 6% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract closed at 20475 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing with a 2.6 - ton increase in weekly operating capacity, while demand is weak in the traditional off - season with a 0.1% drop in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina 2509 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 0.71% from the previous trading day. The supply is stable with no change in weekly operating capacity, and demand is stable as electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 09 contract closed at 8745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The total number of open furnaces increased by 3, with an overall open - furnace rate of 29.75%. Social inventory decreased slightly last week. The price is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the opening of furnaces in Xinjiang and the price trend of polysilicon [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main LC2509 contract closed at 67960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%. The supply in July is expected to be 81150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase month - on - month. The demand is expected to improve marginally but difficult to drive inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Polysilicon - The main 09 contract closed at 45300 yuan/ton, breaking the record high. The price increase is related to the "anti - involution" and the expectation of supply - side reform. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand in the third - quarter photovoltaic installation market is pessimistic. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the leading enterprises' shipping prices and the acceptance of downstream customers [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton. The building material supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The overall steel supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the rebar 2601 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract closed at 797.5 yuan/ton. The iron ore supply - demand is marginally neutral, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the iron ore 2601 contract [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract closed at 938 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the coking coal 2601 contract [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean rose, driven by US soybean oil. The supply is loose both in the near - term and long - term, and the demand depends on tariff policies. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded from the bottom. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the price is affected by substitutes and import grain auctions. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5825 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated upward. The international cotton export sales decreased, while the domestic cotton price is affected by inventory changes in Xinjiang. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil price continued to rise overnight. The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand has support. It is expected to be strong in the short - term and tight annually [4]. - **Egg**: The egg 2508 contract fluctuated narrowly. The supply is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 2509 contract opened low and closed high. The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Apple**: The main contract closed at 7835 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The new - season early - maturing apple price has increased, but the current consumption is light. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4956 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [6]. - **PTA**: The PX CFR China price is 833 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4730 yuan/ton. The PX supply - demand is in a de - stocking state, and the PTA supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to over - allocate PX and look for positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed at 1093 yuan/ton, up 2%. The supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and the inventory is decreasing. The valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see and track the implementation of production - cut policies [6]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 4437 yuan/ton. The supply is at a medium - high level, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose due to production reduction in Iraq and an unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventory. The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating at a high level. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.4% today [1][2] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell by - 0.13%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 1.23%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the smallest increase of 0.03% [1][2] - Among the theme indices, only the Energy Index fell by - 0.14%, while the rest of the theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.54%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.12% [1][2] - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the plywood index had the largest increase of 4.14%, and the fiberboard index had the largest decrease of - 1.36% [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Performance - Sector Indices: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell - 0.13%, Nanhua Black Index rose 1.23%, Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 0.03% [1][2] - Theme Indices: Energy Index fell - 0.14%, Black Raw Materials Index rose 1.54%, Petrochemical Index rose 0.12% [1][2] - Single - Variety Indices: Plywood rose 4.14%, Fiberboard fell - 1.36% [1][2] Industry Chain and Variety Performance - Energy and Chemical Sector: Synthetic ammonia rose 2.06%, crude oil fell - 0.49%, fuel oil fell - 0.59% [2] - Black Sector: There is a black sector part - variety industry chain schematic diagram, but specific variety performance details are not fully presented [8] - Agricultural Products Sector: Palm oil rose 0.85%, rapeseed oil fell - 0.32%, rapeseed rose 0.06%, Zhangxuanxiang rose 2.49%, live pigs rose 0.36% [9]