在美国前总统特朗普以前所未有的方式加码施压之际，美联储主席鲍威尔正准备在欧洲一个重要的央行论坛上发表讲话，这令市场高度关注他将 如何平衡货币政策的稳定信号与捍卫央行独立性的微妙立场。 周一，特朗普通过一封手写信函和社交媒体帖子，将他对美联储的批评推向新高潮。特朗普在手写信函中，附上了一张全球利率排名表，指责鲍 威尔让国家"损失了一大笔钱"，并要求其"大幅"降息。信中提到，如果美联储降息，将能节省"数千亿美元"的利息成本。 与此同时，特朗普在社交媒体上将矛头指向了整个美联储理事会，称鲍威尔及其同事"应该为让这种事发生在美国身上而感到羞耻"。这延续了他 数月以来对鲍威尔的攻击，此前他曾直接侮辱鲍威尔，甚至威胁要将其解雇，并在上周五公开喊话让鲍威尔辞职。 国际舞台上的支持与对比 今晚，这些压力都将聚焦于鲍威尔在欧洲央行的年度论坛上的讲话，该论坛常被称为欧洲版的"杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年会。 美国、欧元区、英国、日本和韩国的央行首脑们将就全球贸易紧张局势与中东冲突如何影响通胀与增长前景交换意见。但在多数国家通胀似乎受 控的背景下，更深刻的问题或将主导讨论：特朗普的保护主义与不可预测的经济政策，会终结这个统治全球金融80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus emphasizes the critical importance of central bank independence in maintaining economic stability and effective monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee highlights that a broad agreement exists on the necessity of central bank independence [1] - The independence of central banks is viewed as essential for ensuring that monetary policy is not influenced by political pressures [1] - Maintaining this independence is crucial for fostering trust in the financial system and promoting long-term economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of China in reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has reached a 12-year low, and the implications of this move on U.S. monetary policy and the broader global financial landscape [1][6][20]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Monetary Policy - China sold $8.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, bringing its total holdings down to $757 billion, the lowest level in 12 years [6][20]. - The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure from President Trump, who expressed frustration over the decision [6][10]. - The market reacted negatively to China's bond sell-off, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise and increasing volatility in the dollar index [6][20]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Central Bank Independence - Trump's aggressive stance towards Powell included public threats and insults, highlighting the tension between political pressures and central bank independence [3][10]. - Powell emphasized that monetary policy would not be influenced by short-term political considerations, reinforcing the independence of the Federal Reserve [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve Act protects the chairman from being dismissed due to policy disagreements, underscoring the importance of maintaining a professional approach to monetary policy [12][14]. Group 3: Global Financial Trends - A significant portion of global central banks, 43%, plan to continue purchasing gold, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar [16]. - Other countries, such as Japan and the UK, have adjusted their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japan buying $3.7 billion and the UK purchasing $28.4 billion in April [18][20]. - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings reflects a broader shift in the global financial landscape, with countries diversifying their reserves to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt [24][26]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts by China - China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.65 trillion in 2013 to $757 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying its investments [24][26]. - The country has simultaneously increased its gold reserves to 73.45 million ounces and is promoting the internationalization of the yuan, which is seen as a forward-looking strategy [24][26]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 73% to 58% reflects a significant and irreversible trend towards "de-dollarization" [26].

市场分析：美联储利率决议可能被"联储影子主席"抢风头 金十数据6月16日讯，Ethenea的分析师卢卡·佩萨里尼在一份报告中说，美联储本周的会议不会因为利率 路径而被人们记住，更多的是对央行独立性的考验。佩萨里尼说："真正的挑战不在于相互矛盾的经济 数据，而在于政治对货币政策沟通的干预。"特朗普此前宣布，他将很快任命美联储主席鲍威尔的继任 者，这距离鲍威尔任期届满还有近一年的时间。这让"影子主席"的概念成为焦点。佩萨里尼说，如果这 一消息公布，美联储官方和指定继任者之间就有可能发出相互矛盾的货币政策信号，尤其是如果后者公 开推动降息的话。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, reaffirmed the independence of the Russian central bank [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the central bank's autonomy in its operations and decision-making processes [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of protecting democracy and academic freedom during his speech at Princeton University's graduation ceremony, directly responding to recent policies from the Trump administration that target higher education [3][4] - Powell described American universities as "critical national assets" and highlighted their role in scientific innovation and economic vitality, urging graduates to actively defend democratic values [3][4] - The ongoing conflict between Powell and Trump has escalated, with Trump criticizing Powell for slow interest rate cuts and suggesting potential legal actions to remove him, despite the Supreme Court ruling that the president cannot unilaterally dismiss the Fed chairman [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is currently maintaining interest rates due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicating that any policy adjustments are unlikely until trade war impacts become clearer [4] - Powell's speech is seen as a declaration of defense for institutional integrity, revealing a dual crisis facing the U.S. financial and academic systems: interference in central bank independence threatens monetary policy credibility, while suppression of higher education could undermine national innovation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, emphasizes that the Federal Reserve is not a political organization and its independence is crucial for anchoring inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The independence of the central bank is highlighted as a key factor in stabilizing inflation expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, expressed strong support for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, emphasizing the sanctity of central bank independence [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Central Bank Independence - Macklem stated that the independence of central banks is "sacred and inviolable," highlighting its importance for the benefits it brings to the public in Canada and other countries [1] - He criticized any actions that threaten the independence of central banks, indicating that such behavior is undesirable [1] Political Pressure - The comments were made in response to pressures from former President Trump, who has publicly criticized Powell, labeling him as a "big loser" and a "fool," while suggesting that interest rates should be lowered [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the independence of the central bank should not be threatened [1]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve does not need to rush to adjust interest rate policies as current data supports a wait-and-see approach, particularly the weakening relationship between confidence data and spending data [1] Trump Tariffs - The impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation may be temporary; if the tariffs remain in place, the Federal Reserve will struggle to make progress on its dual policy goals of price stability and employment [1] - Businesses are delaying investment decisions, and households are postponing consumption expenditures, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to take preemptive action [1] - Trade negotiations could significantly alter the current situation [1] Inflation and Employment - The potential inflation outlook appears favorable, with data likely to easily meet one of the Federal Reserve's dual targets of price stability and employment [1] Central Bank Independence - Statements from Trump are not expected to affect the Federal Reserve's operations [2]