房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 8 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 27 周周报（2025 年 6 月 28 日-2025 年 7 月 4 日） 本周新房成交同比由负转正；建议关注 7 月中旬开始的地产 板块机会 新房成交面积环比由正转负，同比由负转正。二手房成交面积同环比降幅均扩大。新房库存面积 与去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 投资建议： 相关研究报告 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续收窄，一线新房房价止 跌》（2024/12/17） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主 线 》（2024/12/14） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿及稳 定房地产市场的决心 》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政政 策；看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷利率 下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标准》 （2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首提"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，地 产拐点已至》（2024/09/26） 《房地产行业 2024 年中期策略——下半年地产空 间在哪?》（2024 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is stabilizing due to the implementation of various supportive policies, with a focus on high-quality projects in core cities to maintain a steady new housing market [1][2]. Market Performance - In the first half of the year, both new and second-hand housing transactions increased year-on-year, indicating overall market stability [2]. - The report from the China Index Academy shows that the new housing market in core cities has remained stable since 2025, with a slight weakening in the second quarter compared to the first [2]. - The sales area and sales revenue of newly built commercial housing from January to May decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, remaining consistent with the previous months [2]. - The price decline of newly built residential properties has continued to narrow, with first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities seeing a reduction in price decline by 0.4, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points respectively in May [2]. Future Outlook - The new housing transaction volume is expected to decline in the third quarter, but the year-on-year decline will narrow due to last year's low base, with a potential increase in the fourth quarter [3]. - There will be a continued divergence between cities, with core first-tier and second-tier cities expected to stabilize and recover, particularly with the introduction of new residential projects [3]. Policy Measures - Various cities have implemented targeted policies to stabilize the real estate market, with Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces actively promoting housing consumption and financing mechanisms [4]. - Xi'an has introduced measures to promote the development of both new and second-hand housing markets, including tax incentives and streamlined property transactions [6]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of local governments taking responsibility and implementing effective policies to maintain market stability [6]. Housing Fund Policy Adjustments - Many regions have optimized housing provident fund policies to expand usage and facilitate home purchases, such as allowing fund withdrawals for second-hand home down payments [7]. - The adjustments aim to enhance liquidity for homebuyers, thereby stimulating housing demand and market activity [7][8]. Overall Market Sentiment - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that while policies to stabilize the real estate market are showing positive effects, the market is still in an adjustment phase, requiring ongoing efforts to improve market confidence and supply-demand relationships [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a focus on promoting a healthy and high-quality development of the sector [1][8] - The new housing market has seen a slight increase in transaction volume, while the second-hand housing market continues to decline [1][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of local governments effectively utilizing real estate regulatory policies to stabilize market expectations and activate demand [1][8] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate sector's performance was slightly negative, with a 0.1% change last week, while the broader indices saw gains of 1.5% and 1.2% respectively [3] - New housing sales in 36 cities reached 2.966 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3][13] - The second-hand housing market saw a transaction volume of 1.484 million square meters, down 10.7% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [3][20] 2. Inventory and Absorption - The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities is 77.86 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [3][29] - The absorption cycle for new homes is 19.4 months, with variations across city tiers [3][29] 3. Land Market - The land transaction volume in 100 cities was 20.631 million square meters, down 36.3% month-on-month but up 15.3% year-on-year [3][47] - The average land price was 1,326 RMB per square meter, reflecting a significant decrease of 43.8% month-on-month but an increase of 41.7% year-on-year [3][47] 4. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a focus on companies with strong shareholder backing [1][8] - In property management, companies like China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service are highlighted for their market capabilities [1][9] - In real estate brokerage, the report recommends Beike and suggests monitoring I Love My Home [1][9]

利好政策预期突然引爆。 7月7日早盘，A股、港股房地产板块突然爆发，北京北辰实业股份一度暴涨超28%，深圳控股最高大涨超 11%，渝开发、沙河股份、南山控股、财信发展强势涨停。消息面上，住建部调研组近日赴广东、浙江两省调 研时指出，要多管齐下稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 有分析指出，从市场表现来看，6月份重点城市新房及二手房销售环比均实现增长，但同比仍有所下滑，政策 支持力度有望持续加码，7月楼市或延续弱复苏走势。结合更积极的宏观政策基调，房地产行业政策落地节奏 有望加快，一线城市及核心区域政策弹性或超预期。 华泰证券指出，6月13日，国常会提出要"更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，释放出强烈的政策发力信号。 结合更积极的宏观政策基调，房地产行业政策落地节奏有望加快，一线城市及核心区域政策弹性或超预期。 集体大涨 7月7日早盘，港股内房股集体走高，北京北辰实业股份一度暴涨超28%，深圳控股也一度涨超11%，融创中 国、华润置地、新城发展、绿城中国等地产股纷纷上涨。 与此同时，A股房地产板块亦多数走强，截至收盘，渝开发、沙河股份、南山控股、财信发展涨停，海泰发展 涨超 ...

地产股震荡拉升 渝开发、海泰发展双双涨停 智通财经7月7日电，渝开发、海泰发展双双涨停，特发服务、沙河股份涨超5%，新城控股、我爱我 家、深物业A、世联行、滨江集团等跟涨。消息面上，住房城乡建设部调研组近日赴广东、浙江两省调 研。调研组要求，要多管齐下稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动房地产市场止 跌回稳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization in the first half of the year, with both new and second-hand housing transactions increasing year-on-year, particularly in key provinces where second-hand transactions have surpassed new ones [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the overall transaction volume of new and second-hand homes increased year-on-year, with second-hand home transactions gradually rising [1]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw significant activity in second-hand home sales, with Shenzhen experiencing over 30% year-on-year growth, while Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou had increases around 20% [1]. - In Beijing, 88,600 second-hand homes were sold in the first half of 2025, marking an 18% increase year-on-year, with over 60% of transactions being homes priced below 5 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies such as lowering the minimum down payment for personal housing loans have significantly reduced purchasing costs, aiding market recovery [3]. - The overall price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 3.6% in the first half of the year, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [3]. - Over 150 policies to optimize housing provident fund policies and 64 related to purchase subsidies were introduced in the first half of the year, effectively releasing demand potential [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate policy environment is expected to remain loose in the second half of the year, with existing policies likely to be further implemented [3]. - Key cities are anticipated to see continued strong second-hand home transaction volumes due to significant housing demand, particularly among young people and new citizens [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of local governments in implementing effective policies to promote recovery and growth in the sector [2][6]. Group 1: Government Actions and Policies - The State Council has mandated greater efforts to halt the decline in the real estate market, with recent actions including a research group visiting Guangdong and Zhejiang to analyze market conditions and gather feedback [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for local governments to take responsibility and utilize their policy autonomy to implement targeted measures [2][7]. - The government aims to enhance the quality of housing, focusing on safety, comfort, and sustainability, while also stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks [2][4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - According to the China Index Academy, the real estate market showed signs of recovery in early 2025, with new home prices in monitored cities rising by 1.16% in the first half of the year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous period [5]. - The second-hand housing market has seen a cumulative price decline of 3.60%, with prices continuing to drop for 38 consecutive months, despite a high level of activity in transactions [5][6]. - Key provinces like Guangdong and Zhejiang have shown resilience, with new home transaction areas increasing year-on-year, indicating a stable market foundation despite national sales declines [3][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that local governments will actively implement existing policies to further stabilize the real estate market, including enhancing urban renewal and financial support for housing projects [8]. - Focused efforts will be made to improve financing mechanisms and stimulate demand in major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are critical to the overall market recovery [8].

推动房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展，既是稳住经济基本盘的关键抓手，也是构建新发展格局的必 然要求。 从今年上半年的情况来看，持续落实房地产政策"组合拳"也取得了一定成效，房地产市场已经呈现出一 些积极变化，但仍面临诸多挑战。 中指研究院发布的上半年中国房地产行业数据显示，房地产市场的三个重要指标显示要推动房地产市场 平稳发展，还需要在稳定市场预期的同时，继续推出更多止跌回稳的政策。 从市场供求来看，2025年以来，核心城市新房市场整体平稳，一季度延续修复，二季度边际转弱，二手 房在"以价换量"下成交持续增长，重点城市新房可售库存下降，出清周期缩短。从房价来看，2025年1 —5月，百城二手住宅价格累计下跌2.88%，其中5月环比下跌0.71%，跌幅扩大；同期，受优质改善项 目带动，百城新房价格累计上涨0.97%。从土地市场来看，截至6月25日，300城宅地出让金同比增长 24.5%，但成交面积下降约7%，TOP20城市住宅用地出让金占全国66%；一季度，北京、杭州、成都多 次刷新地价，推动3月300城平均溢价率达18%；二季度以来，地块供应减少、房企趋于审慎，土地市场 降温，央国企仍为主要拿地主体。 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is seeking public opinion on the implementation of a new policy allowing the conversion of commercial housing loans to housing provident fund loans, aimed at easing the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulating the housing market [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Details - The proposed policy, referred to as "commercial to public loan" (商转公贷款), allows individuals to convert their outstanding commercial housing loan balances into housing provident fund loans when the personal housing loan rate falls below 75% [4]. - The policy stipulates that if the personal housing loan rate reaches 85% or above, control measures such as loan limits and appointment applications may be implemented, and if it reaches 90% or above, the conversion will be suspended [4]. - The loan amount for the conversion will be determined based on the city's provident fund loan policies and cannot exceed 60% of the total purchase price of the property [6][7]. Group 2: Market Context - Current interest rates for commercial housing loans in Guangzhou are approximately 3.2%, while the first home provident fund loan rate is 2.6%, indicating a 60 basis point difference [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Guangzhou saw 30,871 new housing transactions, with an average price of 35,200 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period [9]. - The central government has emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift in policy focus towards consumer support and cost reduction [9]. Group 3: Eligibility Criteria - To qualify for the "commercial to public loan," applicants must currently contribute to the housing provident fund in Guangzhou and have not previously utilized provident fund loans nationwide [8]. - The policy primarily targets homeowners with only commercial loans for their primary residences, particularly younger buyers or new residents who previously could not access provident fund loans [8].

Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points and Arguments Sales Strategy and Market Outlook - In 2025, the sales strategy focuses on improving the turnover rate, with a total saleable value expected to be approximately 330 billion yuan, down from 410 billion yuan in 2024 [2][5] - The company aims to accelerate inventory turnover and optimize asset structure, although it did not provide specific sales guidance, indicating that sales will depend on turnover performance [2][5] - The company plans to increase replenishment efforts, viewing 2025 as a critical window, with significant investment intensity observed from January to May [2][5] Market Conditions - The core city real estate market is expected to stabilize after a decline, with new home prices experiencing significant adjustments, leading to improved quality and demand release [2][6] - Data from May 2025 shows that new home prices are under adjustment pressure, potentially due to the introduction of quality new projects affecting older properties [8] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery trend, but April saw a pullback due to various factors, with May sales data stabilizing as companies push for mid-year performance [3][9] Asset and Liability Management - The company plans to enhance asset quality by accelerating asset turnover and optimizing debt structure, aiming to reduce financing costs, which were at 2.99% in 2024 [2][7] - The company has canceled regional settings and established an asset management department to adapt to market changes and improve management efficiency [4][12] Inventory and Project Management - The turnover rate for new projects is expected to improve in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, although specific improvement metrics are not provided [4][9] - The company has observed a significant reduction in inventory impairment pressure, with cumulative impairment nearing 25 billion yuan, indicating proactive risk management [11] Collaboration and Innovation - The partnership with Beike (贝壳找房) is aimed at leveraging big data for customer research in project development, enhancing product offerings to meet market demands [13] Regulatory and Performance Metrics - The evaluation criteria from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (国资委) and China Merchants Group focus on business development, profit performance, and asset-liability structure, ensuring a robust transition through industry cycles [15] Additional Important Insights - The company emphasizes the need to differentiate between new and second-hand housing markets, noting that while new home prices are stabilizing, second-hand home prices are under pressure [6][8] - The marketing strategy includes a "one project, one measurement" approach, with daily sales reports and weekly meetings to adapt quickly to market changes [10] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction, market conditions, and operational adjustments of China Merchants Shekou in the real estate sector.