Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the economic fundamentals are relatively cold. To achieve the economic growth target, policies in the fourth quarter still need to be strengthened. The newly announced 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments may have various sources of funds, and there is still a certain probability of releasing the debt space limit. The "anti - involution" policy has had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits, but the subsequent recovery process remains tortuous [1][10][13]. - Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cut in September can be regarded as a preventive one. There is a significant divergence between the Fed and the market next year. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will start reviewing the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [2][22][27]. - In terms of major asset trends, stocks will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips; bonds have weak sentiment; the exchange rate will fluctuate within a range; and for gold, it is advisable to take a long - biased approach [3][28][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic: A New Round of Support Policies is Coming (1) The expectation of stable - growth policies resurfaces - The economic data in August was generally cold, with consumption weakening, production sluggish, and investment under pressure. To achieve the economic growth target, new stable - growth policies are necessary. The new policies may focus on debt limits and policy - based banks. The 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments will be used to supplement project capital and support private enterprises' participation in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [10][13]. (2) Has the "anti - involution" policy taken effect? - The "anti - involution" policy did not boost the "troika" of the economy but had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of PPI increased from - 3.6% in July to - 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits soared from - 1.5% in July to 20.4%. However, the recovery of PPI and industrial enterprise profits is also due to the low base last year [17][18]. Abroad: There is a Significant Divergence between the Fed and the Market Next Year - The Fed's interest rate cut in September was a preventive one. There is a difference between the Fed's and the market's expectations for the federal funds target rate next year. If the Fed remains data - dependent, the market's pricing may be incorrect, but the upcoming change of the Fed chairman adds uncertainty. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will review the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [21][23][27]. Major Asset Trends Outlook (1) Stocks: Mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips - Since September, the strong upward trend of the equity market has been curbed, and the Shanghai Composite Index has generally fluctuated. The growth style leads, and the market risk appetite will be maintained due to new policy tools and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The general direction of the stock market is still upward, but the market may fluctuate in the short term [28]. (2) Bonds: Weak sentiment - The bond market continued to adjust in September. Factors such as the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fees, possible over - expected fiscal policies, and potential redemption pressure on the liability side of funds have suppressed the bond market. Although the overall view is bullish, short - term caution is needed [30]. (3) The RMB exchange rate will remain volatile - Since September, the domestic supporting factors for the RMB exchange rate have weakened, but the support from the current account and the capital account still exists. The US dollar index is the core variable. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, but in the long run, it is in a downward channel, and the RMB is still in an appreciation trend [34]. (4) Gold: It is advisable to take a long - biased approach - Gold showed strong performance in September. The Fed's interest rate cut, along with geopolitical issues, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and fiscal issues in various countries, supported the gold price. It is recommended to allocate 15 - 20% of the position to go long on gold [38].

Group 1: PMI Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.3%[2] - The manufacturing PMI's increase aligns with seasonal trends, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 percentage points (pct) compared to the previous value[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index rose to 51.9% (+1.1pct), indicating stronger supply than demand[2] - The new orders index increased to 49.7% (+0.2pct), while the new export orders index was at 47.8% (+0.6pct), showing resilience in external demand[2] - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains skewed towards supply exceeding demand[2] Group 3: Price Index Trends - The price index declined after three consecutive increases, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.2% (-0.1pct) and the factory price index at 48.2% (-0.9pct)[2] - This reflects a weakening impact of "anti-involution" policies on upstream raw material prices, shifting focus to the actual implementation of policies[2] Group 4: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9% (+1.4pct), marking the highest point since March[2] - The consumer goods sector PMI increased to 50.6% (+1.4pct), driven by seasonal demand ahead of the upcoming holidays[2] - The high-energy-consuming industries PMI fell to 47.5% (-0.7pct), consistent with previous price index trends[2] Group 5: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3pct to 50.0%, slightly below the five-year average[2] - In the service sector, travel-related consumption saw a seasonal decline, while financial services maintained high activity levels[2] - The construction PMI was at 49.3% (+0.2pct), with weather conditions impacting project initiation[2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2510 closed down 1.02%, and the far - month contracts declined between -1% and -11%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 134.43 points from last week, a 10.7% week - on - week decline. Spot indicators continued to fall, and the futures prices lacked support. [1] - Maersk's spot cabin quotes for European lines stopped falling and rebounded in mid - October, and MSC's quotes followed with a small increase later, leading to a recovery in futures price valuation. Geopolitical conflicts supported the futures prices, but before the National Day holiday, shipping companies lowered freight rates to increase cargo volume, and the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, with significant freight rate pressure. [1] - The recent economic data in the Eurozone fluctuated, with business sentiment indices weaker than expected. The ECB indicated a slower pace of interest rate cuts due to improved economic expectations and easing inflation. Overall, there is uncertainty in the trade war, the demand for the freight index (European line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1110.600, down 11.4; EC second - main contract closing price: 1731.9, down 3.10. [1] - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: -621.30, up 20.00; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: -532.20, up 19.80. [1] - EC contract basis: 9.89, up 4.40. [1] - EC main contract position: 24782 hands, down 4532. [1] 2. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1120.49, down 134.43; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 921.25, down 272.39. [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1114.52, down 83.69; spot price: 1087.41, down 69.06. [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): down 32.82; CCFI (European line) (weekly): down 39.00. [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2259.00, down 400.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1832.00, down 14.00. [1] - Average charter price (Panamax): 14769.00, unchanged; average charter price (Capesize): 30090.00. [1] 3. Industry News - The US Department of Commerce issued export control penetration rules, and China's Ministry of Commerce responded firmly against it. [1] - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, and a Gaza peace plan was proposed. [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital, and efforts are being made to allocate the funds to specific projects. [1] 4. Key Data to Watch - September manufacturing PMI final values in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK on October 1st. [1] - Eurozone September CPI annual rate preliminary value on October 1st. [1] - US September ADP employment figures (in ten thousands) on October 1st. [1] - US September ISM manufacturing PMI on October 1st. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital, which is expected to significantly lower financing thresholds and attract larger social capital for industrial upgrades, particularly in emerging sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools are designed to address the core issue of capital shortages for projects, with all funds allocated for capital rather than debt, effectively lowering financing thresholds and leveraging more social capital [2][6]. - The tools are seen as a strong "quasi-fiscal" measure that combines policy bank fundraising with fiscal interest subsidies, aiming to achieve policy goals through market-oriented methods [3][6]. - The introduction of these tools is expected to quickly generate physical work output and play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth in the fourth quarter [3][6]. Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Various local governments are actively organizing policy briefings and preparing project applications for the new financial tools, indicating a strong response and readiness to convert policy benefits into development momentum [4][6]. - Specific regions, such as Hubei and Guangdong, have held meetings to discuss project reserves and ensure effective implementation of the policy [4]. - The focus of funding is directed towards sectors that address both "shortcomings" and "upgrades," including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon initiatives, which are expected to yield quick results in the fourth quarter [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The new financial tools are projected to leverage between 1.5 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan in total investment, creating a multiplier effect by improving financing conditions and reducing project leverage [6]. - The tools are anticipated to support the achievement of annual economic growth targets by significantly boosting infrastructure investment [3][6].

Core Insights - The first batch of new policy financial instruments in China has been officially signed and implemented in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, marking a significant development in the region's financial landscape [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Wuxi to Yixing Intercity Rail Transit Project has been approved for funding through new policy financial instruments amounting to 3.199 billion yuan, with 1.433 billion yuan allocated for the first phase and 1.766 billion yuan for the second phase, making it the largest project approved in the province [1] - On September 29, the China Development Bank Jiangsu Branch provided a one-time funding injection of 1.766 billion yuan specifically for the capital of the second phase of the Wuxi to Yixing Intercity Rail Transit Project, representing the first batch of funding from the newly established policy financial instruments nationwide [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of stable supply and slight increase in demand, with a suggestion of light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand, and the option market sentiment is bullish, also suggesting light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slowing supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillatory trading is recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,868 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,670.50 US dollars/ton, up 21.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 515,600 tons, up 10,424 tons [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 690 yuan, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export quantity was 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2] Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 11.99 million tons, down 30.30 million tons; the primary aluminum import quantity was 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons [2] - The primary aluminum export quantity was 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 53.70 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 6.17%, down 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.08%, up 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV increased slightly, and the put - call ratio was 1.11, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0630 [2] Industry News - New York Fed President Williams supported rate cuts due to labor market weakness; St. Louis Fed President Mousalem was open to future rate cuts but cautious; Cleveland Fed President Harker advocated maintaining a tight monetary policy [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan to boost investment [2] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, focusing on the 15th Five - Year Plan [2] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association opposes unfair competition in the industry [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper has risen and then pulled back, with increased open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper price cost support logic remains due to the tight supply of copper concentrate. The domestic copper production is expected to increase slightly, while the downstream copper product start - up is expected to improve significantly. The social inventory may gradually decrease, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 83,110 yuan/ton, up 740 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,383 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 213,859 lots, up 67 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 8,035 lots, up 7085 lots. The LME copper inventory is 143,900 tons, down 500 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 98,779 tons, down 7035 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper is 26,823 tons, down 2856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 83,240 yuan/ton, up 1030 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 83,100 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) is 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.22 dollars/ton, up 9.69 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 73,340 yuan/metal ton, up 760 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 74,040 yuan/metal ton, up 760 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,540 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 69,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,796 billion yuan, up 481.03 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6729.42 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 14.54%, up 0.18%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.40%, up 0.16%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 21.33%, down 0.0031%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, down 0.0486 [2] Industry News - New York Fed President Williams supported rate cuts due to labor market weakness; St. Louis Fed President Musalem is open to future rate cuts but cautious; Cleveland Fed President Harker advocates maintaining a tight monetary policy. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee is studying the 15th Five - Year Plan. The China Household Electrical Appliances Association opposes unfair competition in the industry [2]

Core Points - The first batch of new policy financial tools in China has been officially signed and implemented in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province [1] - The Wuxi to Yixing intercity rail project has received funding of 3.199 billion yuan, making it the largest approved project in Jiangsu Province [1] - The China Development Bank's Jiangsu branch has provided a one-time funding of 1.766 billion yuan specifically for the second phase of the Wuxi to Yixing intercity rail project [1]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the establishment of a new policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital[1] - The timeline from April to September allows local governments 4-5 months to finalize project lists and funding matches, with projects expected to launch densely between October and December[2] - This initiative is projected to create a leverage effect of 2-3 times, corresponding to an additional investment scale of approximately 1-1.7 trillion yuan[7] Group 2: Economic Impact - The new financial tool is designed to stabilize growth and support economic development, especially as fixed asset investment growth has slowed to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August[4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by only 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a need for intervention[4] - The tool will focus on key areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon transformation, emphasizing new productivity and technological upgrades[6] Group 3: Historical Context and Differences - Previous similar financial tools included a special construction fund of 2 trillion yuan in 2015 and 740 billion yuan in 2022, both of which had significant impacts on stabilizing growth[6] - The current tool differs by providing direct capital support of 500 billion yuan specifically for project capital, reducing uncertainty in funding allocation[6] - It also aligns with other policies, such as long-term special government bonds and a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing its effectiveness[6]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].