Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on the service consumption sector, with potential investment opportunities in companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange related to this industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that several policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to be introduced in September 2025, which could significantly enhance the supply of high-quality services and stimulate new consumption scenarios [2][5][12]. - In 2024, China's service retail sales are projected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, indicating a robust demand for service consumption [6][8]. - The report identifies a substantial growth potential in service consumption in China, particularly in areas such as culture, leisure, tourism, and healthcare, as the country transitions towards a service-oriented economy [6][12]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce new policies to boost service consumption, focusing on enhancing service supply and promoting investment in sectors like internet services, culture, and healthcare [2][5][12]. - Specific measures include encouraging foreign investment in sectors such as camping, homestays, and "Internet + healthcare" [2][5]. Market Performance - The median price change for companies in the service consumption sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange was -3.12% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, with 9 companies (23%) experiencing gains [15][16]. - The total market capitalization of the service consumption sector decreased from 132.17 billion to 128.91 billion yuan, with the median market capitalization dropping from 2.35 billion to 2.29 billion yuan [22][24]. Valuation Metrics - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for companies in the service consumption sector decreased from 57.9X to 52.5X [18][19]. - The broader consumer sector's median P/E ratio fell from 66.9X to 61.3X, indicating a general decline in valuations across the sector [28][29]. Company Analysis - The report lists several companies in the service consumption sector, including those in sports, tourism, healthcare, and education, highlighting their revenue and profit metrics for 2024 [13][14]. - Notable companies include Meizhigao, Guoyi Tendering, and Jinbo Biological, which showed significant price increases during the reporting period [25][26].

Group 1: Consumer Trends - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [1] - Retail sales of goods grew by 3.6%, while dining revenue increased by 2.1%, indicating a slowdown in retail growth compared to previous months [1] - The demand for upgraded consumer goods has expanded, driven by the "old-for-new" consumption initiative, with significant growth in categories such as furniture (18.6%), home appliances (14.3%), and cultural office supplies (14.2%) [1] Group 2: Service Consumption - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales, indicating a robust service consumption sector [1][4] - The service price index rose by 0.6% in August, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4] - High-quality social services, including tourism and cultural activities, have seen increased demand, particularly during the summer [4] Group 3: Impact of Events on Local Economy - The "Su Chao" event has positively impacted local service consumption in Jiangsu, boosting tourism and hospitality sectors [5] - Despite a vibrant tourism market, the dining sector has experienced slower growth, with dining revenue growth rates of 0.9%, 1.1%, and 2.1% in June, July, and August respectively, which are lower than the first five months of the year [5][6] - Companies are adapting to changes in consumer behavior, such as adjusting menu prices and focusing on family dining options, in response to the evolving market landscape [6] Group 4: Emerging Consumer Products - The demand for sports and wearable smart devices has surged, with significant sales growth reported in categories like running shoes and sports apparel, with some items seeing over 200% year-on-year sales increases [2] - The prices of certain consumer goods, including sports equipment and smart devices, have risen, reflecting increased consumer interest and market dynamics [2] - The application of new technologies such as AI and XR in consumer products is expanding, with notable growth in immersive entertainment and educational applications [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows signs of improved quality and prominent structural highlights, but internal momentum needs consolidation and demand requires further boosting. The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the 5% annual target achievable [4]. - In the equity market, the foundation for a slow - bull market remains. The index is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors are advised to actively participate and focus on high - growth sectors. In the bond market, the upward movement is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for a trending long - position. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, with the expected performance being precious metals > industrial metals > energy products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Overview - **Positive aspects**: The service industry is highly prosperous, with the August service business activity index reaching 50.5%. New and old kinetic energy is accelerating transformation, and the "Two New" policies have strong supporting effects. The "Anti - involution" policy shows results, with the PPI ending its 8 - month decline. The capital activation degree increases, and the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows [4][5]. - **Challenges**: Economic data awaits trend improvement, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line for 5 consecutive months. Internal growth momentum needs consolidation, overseas demand is uncertain, real estate drags on the economy, and the profit structure of industrial enterprises above designated size may further differentiate [4][6]. 3.2 8 - month Economic Sub - data Interpretation - **Manufacturing PMI**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with the production index driving the slight rebound. High - tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs show an upward trend [7]. - **Fixed - asset investment**: The growth rate continues to decline, mainly due to real estate drag. However, high - tech investment remains prosperous [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate slightly drops, but the "National Subsidy" and service - consumption policies are expected to support future consumption [10]. - **Exports**: The short - term growth slows down, and the future trend is uncertain due to factors such as high - base effects, policy changes, and overseas economic conditions [11][13]. - **Real estate**: Sales continue to be weak, with both sales area and investment decline expanding. Second - hand housing prices have not stopped falling [14]. - **Production**: It maintains a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industries above designated size growing steadily. Manufacturing is the core support [15]. - **Prices**: The "Anti - involution" policy affects PPI. CPI is weak, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI ends its decline, but the recovery of PPI depends on demand - side policies [18][19]. - **Liquidity**: The total social financing slightly exceeds expectations, but the structure needs improvement, especially the slow recovery of medium - and long - term credit demand [22]. - **Profit**: The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows, and future profit growth depends on multiple factors [23]. 3.3 Future Economic Outlook - **Overseas**: The US economy shows signs of weakness, which may affect China's exports. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts will impact global liquidity [24]. - **Domestic policy**: A certain policy space will be reserved, and policies focus on long - term structural issues [25]. - **Economy**: The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to explore the bottom, consumption has certain support, and exports remain uncertain [25]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Equity market**: The foundation for a slow - bull market exists. Investors are advised to focus on high - growth sectors such as self - controllability, energy storage and new energy, service consumption, and sectors benefiting from Fed rate cuts [27]. - **Bond market**: The upward movement is limited, and it is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.8% [30]. - **Commodity market**: The differentiation intensifies, and it is recommended to focus on precious metals [31].

【纠错】 【责任编辑:邱丽芳】 新华社音视频部制作 9月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年8月份国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，服务消费增势稳定。暑期出 行旅游和休闲运动需求集中释放，服务消费持续较快增长。1至8月份，服务零售额同比增长5.1%，快 于商品零售额增速。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stable growth of service consumption in China, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [1] - The integration of tourism and sports is fostering new consumption scenarios, with significant growth in retail sales related to travel and cultural sports services [1] - Local events, such as the kayaking competition in Jiangxi, are driving tourism and cultural consumption, with over 200 participants and various promotional measures to attract visitors [2][4] Group 2 - The kayaking event in Jiangxi led to the issuance of approximately 100,000 yuan in cultural tourism consumption vouchers, with local attractions and businesses offering discounts and new travel routes to maintain the event's momentum [7] - In Guizhou, a unique agricultural event attracted numerous visitors, allowing them to experience traditional farming activities and celebrate the harvest season [8] - The agricultural activities in Guizhou, including fishing contests and traditional grain processing, have successfully engaged tourists and promoted local cultural heritage [11]

Core Viewpoint - The press conference held by the State Council Information Office highlighted the robust growth in service consumption in China, particularly driven by tourism and leisure activities during the summer months [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first eight months of the year, service retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales [1] - The integration of "tourism+" and "sports+" consumption scenarios is accelerating, contributing to the growth of quality service supply [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Growth - Retail sales related to tourism and cultural sports services have seen significant growth, indicating a strong recovery in these sectors [1] - In August, the national box office revenue and the number of moviegoers increased by 48.6% and 66.9% year-on-year, respectively, showcasing a resurgence in the entertainment industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to strengthen support for the private economy to effectively address challenges in the "dual circulation" strategy, which aims to enhance domestic demand and international trade [1][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on establishing a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while promoting international circulation, but faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increasing global trade protectionism [1][3] - The private economy is identified as a crucial driver for job creation and economic growth, contributing over 80% of urban employment, particularly in the service sector [3][4] Group 2 - Despite recent policies aimed at boosting consumption, high savings rates and low consumption rates indicate persistent economic issues, primarily due to weak investment willingness and confidence among private enterprises [3][4] - The need for a supportive environment for private enterprises is highlighted, including legal governance, equal treatment with state-owned enterprises, and a clear delineation of roles in the economy [4][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should focus on enhancing the private sector's investment capacity to stabilize employment and income, thereby fostering consumer confidence [3][4] Group 3 - The article discusses the structural contradictions in the economy, where some industries face oversupply while others lack quality products and services, leading to "involution" in competition [6][7] - It suggests that private enterprises, being more responsive to market demands, are essential for driving innovation and optimizing supply to overcome competitive pressures [7][8] - Service consumption is identified as a significant area for expanding domestic demand, with a projected growth rate of 6.2% in service retail in 2024, outpacing goods retail [7][8] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of private enterprises in international trade, noting that they accounted for 55.5% of China's total foreign trade in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [10][11] - It highlights the need for private enterprises to diversify their global market strategies, especially in light of increasing trade protectionism [10][11] - The article advocates for a balanced approach in overseas operations, encouraging private enterprises to create local employment and contribute to local economies for sustainable development [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to strengthen support for the private economy from a top-level design perspective to address challenges in the "dual circulation" strategy and achieve high-quality development [1][4] - The article highlights that the insufficient investment willingness and confidence of private enterprises are key factors leading to inadequate effective demand and employment pressure [3][4] - It is noted that private enterprises contribute over 80% of urban employment, making their growth essential for stabilizing employment and income, which in turn boosts consumption [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural contradictions in the economy, where some industries face oversupply while others lack quality products and services, leading to "involution" in competition [6] - It suggests that respecting market rules and fostering the private economy are crucial for driving innovation and meeting consumer demand for high-quality, personalized products and services [6][5] - The potential of service consumption as a key area for expanding domestic demand is highlighted, with a recommendation for more private enterprises to participate in this sector [7][5] Group 3 - The article addresses the challenges posed by the complex global trade environment and emphasizes the unique advantages of private enterprises in external circulation [9][10] - It states that private enterprises accounted for 55.5% of China's total foreign trade value in 2024, showcasing their role as a major force in international trade [10] - The need for private enterprises to diversify their global market strategies and balance local interests while expanding overseas is emphasized for sustainable development [11][10]

Core Viewpoint - The "dual circulation" strategy is essential for China's economic transformation, focusing on domestic circulation while addressing external challenges [1] Group 1: Domestic Economic Challenges - Insufficient effective demand is a bottleneck for economic growth, exacerbated by global trade protectionism [1] - The lack of investment willingness and confidence among private enterprises is a key issue affecting employment and consumption [2][3] - Private enterprises contribute over 80% of urban employment, making their growth crucial for stabilizing jobs and income [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The "14th Five-Year Plan" should enhance support for the private economy through top-level design [3] - Emphasizing respect and support for private enterprises in government policies is necessary [3] - Legal governance must be strengthened to prevent arbitrary administrative actions that harm the business environment [3] Group 3: Innovation and Service Consumption - The current economic landscape faces structural contradictions, with some industries over-supplied and others lacking quality products [6] - Private enterprises are seen as key players in driving innovation and meeting market demands, thus alleviating "involution" competition [6] - Service consumption is a significant area for expanding domestic demand, with potential growth in sectors like healthcare and education [7] Group 4: Role of Private Enterprises in Foreign Trade - Private enterprises are crucial in China's foreign trade, accounting for 55.5% of total trade value in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [8] - The market-oriented nature of private enterprises allows them to better navigate international trade challenges and expand into new markets [8][9] - Emphasizing mutual benefits and local engagement is essential for sustainable international operations of Chinese enterprises [9]

海闻进一步指出，虽然当前宏观政策较为宽松，但民营企业固定资产投资意愿仍显不足，这正是内循环 不畅的微观体现。背后的原因，主要是民营企业家对未来发展的信心和预期不够强、个别地方政府存 在"乱罚款"等破坏法制和营商环境的行为，以及民营企业在行业准入和市场竞争上没有依法享有平等的 地位。 因此，"十五五"规划要系统破解内需不足难题，必须从顶层设计上强化对民营经济的支持。海闻建议： 第一，要继续强调社会主义初级阶段理论的宣传教育，推动全社会特别是各级政府部门形成尊重、支持 民营经济发展的良好社会环境；第二，要加强依法治理，坚决制止任何缺乏法律支撑的行政决策或执法 行为；第三，要清晰界定国有企业与民营企业在经济职能和行业布局上的边界，在二者存在竞争的领域 给予民营企业一视同仁的平等待遇。 "十四五"以来，构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，已成为我国经济战 略转型的核心方向。然而，实践中的挑战依然严峻：对内，有效需求不足成为制约经济增长的瓶颈；对 外，全球贸易保护主义加剧，使我国外循环面临前所未有的不确定性。在此背景下，"十五五"时期如何 打通国内循环堵点、有效应对外部冲击，成为实现高质量发展的 ...