Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore collaborative transformation paths [1] - The summit was co-hosted by the Global Council for Chinese Enterprises Going Global, emphasizing the need for resource connection and dialogue on rules amidst deep restructuring of global industrial chains [1] Group 2 - Long Yongtu, former Vice Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, criticized the US's tariff plan initiated by President Trump, stating it undermines the global tariff system established over decades [3] - He highlighted that the US's actions represent a shift from rule-based globalization to one based on national interests, which could lead to the exclusion of certain countries from the globalization process [3] - Long emphasized that the global trade and investment outlook remains hopeful despite the challenges posed by unilateral actions from the US, as countries are resisting the tariff plan [3]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic landscape is expected to show resilience in the short term, with a shift from "grabbing transshipment" to "grabbing exports," indicating a potential improvement in external demand [1] - The top five sectors with net inflows include military industry, non-ferrous metals, copper, PCB boards, and charging piles, suggesting strong investor interest in these areas [1] - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain stability with the support of long-term capital inflows, driven by policies from the Central Huijin Investment Ltd [1] Group 2 - The humanoid robot industry is expected to drive significant growth in the bearing market, with domestic companies poised to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution [3] - The recent enactment of the stablecoin regulation in Hong Kong is drawing attention to related stocks, although the industry is still in its early stages and may face challenges in short-term performance [3] - The introduction of multiple economic stimulus policies is expected to stabilize expectations and enhance early effectiveness, particularly in the "two new" and "two heavy" sectors [5] Group 3 - The stock market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant inflows of new capital, although the overall market profitability remains weak [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a rebound without filling the gap, indicating a strong market sentiment influenced by external market performance [11] - The focus on sectors with low exposure to U.S. tariffs, such as engineering machinery and commercial vehicles, is recommended for investors [11]

重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 2025 年 6 月 27 日星期五 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | | ת > | | 螺纹、热卷: | | 6 | | 铁矿石: | | 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭 : . | | 7 | | 铁合金: | | 7 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | .. | | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | | 11 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | .. 11 | | | PTA: . | | | | 乙二醇: 12 | | | | 短纤: | . | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: | .. | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Financial Market Outlook**: The U.S. financial market is expected to perform strongly in 2023-2024 due to monetary expansion and the AI revolution, but fiscal expansion is limited in the first half of 2024, leading to capital flow towards European stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and precious metals [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Challenges**: The Trump administration's attempts to address the "twin deficits" (fiscal and trade deficits) through tariffs and debt restructuring have had limited success, with fiscal deficits expected to remain high in 2025 [1][5][9]. - **Debt Burden**: The U.S. national debt has increased significantly, with interest payments exceeding 20% of fiscal revenue, leading to a growing debt burden [1][8]. - **Global Interest Rate Trends**: Global interest rates are generally declining due to limited debt leverage expansion across major economies, which suppresses capital returns and, consequently, interest rates [1][17]. - **China's Economic Dynamics**: China's economic growth model has shifted from relying on foreign demand to domestic demand, facing challenges such as high fiscal deficits and rising interest payments [1][20][21]. - **2025 Economic Predictions for China**: Similar macroeconomic constraints as in 2023 are anticipated, including declining exports, fluctuating consumer demand, low inflation, and reduced financing needs [1][24][29]. Important but Overlooked Content - **U.S. Monetary Policy**: The U.S. M2 money supply growth is expected to slow down, indicating a cooling economy, as high interest rates deter borrowing and expansion [1][16]. - **China's Fiscal Policy Constraints**: China's interest payments are rising, with the ratio of interest payments to fiscal revenue increasing, indicating potential constraints on future fiscal policy [1][20]. - **Market Dynamics**: The bond market in 2023 showed unexpected bullish trends despite initial expectations of poor performance, driven by adjustments in deposit rates and monetary policy [1][25][26]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The global fixed income market is expected to present investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, particularly if the U.S. economic position weakens [2][41]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the financial markets and the broader economic landscape.

Core Insights - The optimization of visa-free and tax refund policies, along with the enhancement of China's manufacturing capabilities and the emergence of experiential consumption trends, has stimulated foreign tourists' consumption in China and encouraged "reverse purchasing" by foreigners [1][5][6] Group 1: Policy and Economic Impact - The expansion of the visa-free tax refund policy has made it easier for foreigners to shop in China, contributing to increased foreign consumer spending [3][5] - The shift in foreign shopping preferences from traditional products like silk and tea to high-value items such as drones and smart wearables reflects the improvement in China's manufacturing quality and variety [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The trend of "immediate purchase and refund" has gained popularity, particularly with the nationwide implementation of the departure tax refund policy, enhancing convenience for foreign shoppers [5][6] - Products that blend traditional Chinese elements with contemporary cultural designs are increasingly favored by foreign consumers [5] - Smart technology products, including smart glasses and drones, have emerged as new highlights in consumer preferences [5][6] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - There is a need to develop foreign tourist-friendly shopping districts that cater to the specific consumption characteristics of foreign visitors, including multilingual signage and shopping maps [6] - Companies are encouraged to offer customized and personalized products and services for foreign consumers, including exclusive discount packages [6] - Leveraging artificial intelligence to create a range of extended consumer products around popular IPs can help expand the consumption industry chain [6] Group 4: Global Economic Context - The establishment of a global consumption community by China holds significant strategic importance, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions [6][7] - This initiative can contribute positively to the economic recovery of other countries and the overall global economic landscape [7]

2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | --- | | 国债: 4 | | C 股指: . | | 贵金属: רז ז | | 螺纹、热卷: 6 | | 铁矿石: 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭： . 1 | | 铁合金: 1 | | 原油: 8 | | 燃料油: C | | 合成橡胶: C | | 天然橡胶: C | | PVC: : : : : : : : : : : : : : | | 尿素: . 11 | | .. 11 对二甲苯 PX: | | PTA: . | | 乙二醇: . | | 短纤: .. | | 瓶片: .. | | 纯碱: .. | | 玻璃: 14 | | 烧碱: .. | | 纸浆: .. | | 碳酸锂: .. | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | ...

·西南期货：中长期上涨逻辑仍强考虑做多黄金期货 ·银河期货：短期内预计贵金属将延续高位震荡走势 ·广州期货：避险情绪降温美联储降息没有紧迫性贵金属价格或小幅承压 ·Zaner Metals：对停火能否持续的不确定性限制金价跌幅 ·FXStreet：美元走软金价整体仍保持积极偏向 ·银河期货表示，由于伊以双方在美国的介入下暂时实现停火，避险情绪回落。美国货币政策路径方 面，尽管昨日鲍威尔等人的发言稍显鹰派、总体维持观望态度，但市场对于下半年的降息预期有所提 升、并小幅抢跑，美元和美债收益率连续走低。往后看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来溢价出清的压 力，但市场后续的焦点可能重新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险 并未消除，美联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预计 贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 ·广州期货表示，以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，地缘风险缓和。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示， 美联储目前处于有利位置，能够耐心等待，待对经济走向有更清晰的判断后再考虑调整货币政策立场； 但他不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。世界大型 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Bearish" [7] Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the stagflation pressure in the US will rise significantly, and the Fed will release liquidity to balance the economy, leading to a weaker US dollar with an expected weakening center around 95 [5][95] - The market volatility in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than that in the first half, so holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96] Summary by Directory 1. United States: Severe Economic Pressure and Worsening Treasury Bond Issues 1.1 Labor Market: Structural Resilience Persists, but Medium - term Weakness is Inevitable - In H1 2025, the US labor market's resilience exceeded expectations, with a high - level new employment center, slowing wage growth, and a low unemployment rate [17] - The labor market shows insensitivity to the economic cycle, and in the future, it may enter an "atypical recession" with a linear decline in employment and a possible sudden acceleration of weakness [19] - The Phillips curve may flatten in H2 due to inflation, and the labor market may resist inflation, increasing fluctuations [21][23] 1.2 The Prospect of US Economic Stagflation is Becoming More Apparent - The current decline in US inflation data is a reflection of past economic fundamentals. The potential pressure of reciprocal tariffs will push up inflation expectations, and the long - term inflation pressure will be significant [26] - The US economy's downward pressure is increasing, with the deterioration of the household sector's cash - flow and the long - standing problem of credit tightening [28][30] - The pressure of stagflation is shifting from expectation to reality. The end of the inventory - replenishment phase in the corporate sector and the intensification of reciprocal tariffs will exacerbate stagflation [36][37] 1.3 US Dollar: A Clearly Weakening Currency in H2 - In H1 2025, the market accepted the weak - dollar cycle as the high - growth of the US economy, the basis of the strong - dollar cycle, no longer exists [40] - The US Treasury bond issue will become more prominent in H2. The solution to the deficit problem requires liquidity injection, which will lead to a weaker US dollar [44][46] 2. Eurozone and Japan 2.1 Eurozone: Marginal Improvement in Economic Fundamentals - In 2025, the Eurozone's real GDP growth rebounded, inflation continued to decline, and the manufacturing industry recovered faster than the service industry, driving up the debt levels of residents and enterprises [48][57] - The EU's "Re - arming Europe Plan" with 800 billion euros in spending has changed the economic structure of the Eurozone, increasing manufacturing capacity [57] - The ECB will continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will also be strengthened. The euro's appreciation trend will be enhanced [66] 2.2 Japan: Persistent Appreciation Trend - Japan's economic fundamentals have improved, with consumption driving GDP growth. However, there is a divergence between strong consumption and relatively weak industrial production [69][75] - From a fundamental perspective, the yen has a basis for appreciation, but a strong yen will bring challenges to foreign trade and liquidity. The Bank of Japan needs to make a choice on interest - rate policy [85][86] - Considering the US - Japan trade negotiation and market expectations, the yen is likely to appreciate, but the speed of appreciation needs to be controlled [86] 3. Global Macro: Embracing a More Uncertain Second Half - Trump's policies in 2025 have broken the strong - dollar cycle, and the de - globalization narrative has emerged, with the US Treasury bond issue coming to the fore [87] - The extreme and inconsistent policies are due to populism, which exposes the fragility of the US economy and leads to stagflation [87] - Geopolitical risks will rise in H2, which will have a short - term positive impact on the US dollar but a long - term negative impact. The US dollar will continue to weaken [91][92] 4. Investment Recommendations 4.1 The Weak - dollar Trend is Obvious - In H2 2025, the US stagflation pressure will rise, and the Fed will release liquidity, leading to a weaker US dollar with a center around 95 [5][95] 4.2 Continued Recommendation of Safe - haven Assets - In H2, market contradictions and conflicts will accelerate, increasing volatility. Holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96]

2025 年 6 月 25 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | 铁合金: | | ا ے | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | .. | | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | .. | | | 乙二醇: | .. | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂· ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shortage at the raw material end continues, with limited cold material supplements, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons. The pressure at the raw material end will further reduce processing fees and impact downstream industries. - The processing profit of the smelting industry continues to deteriorate, with an initial risk of industry - wide losses. The scope of active production cuts overseas is expanding, and the market is focusing on domestic smelting trends. The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons. - The marginal growth of traditional demand is weakening, the new - energy demand is slowing down, while the demand from emerging industries is growing strongly. The marginal growth of global copper demand in 2025 is adjusted down to 700,000 - 800,000 metric tons. - Macro factors center around the weakening of the US dollar, and policies from various countries are expected to stimulate the economy. The fundamentals are in a stalemate, with greater potential for supply constraints. In a low - inventory state, the regional balance needs time to recover. It is recommended to focus on structural market trends, with the low point of copper prices in the second half of the year unlikely to break through 74,000 yuan/ton, and the high point may exceed 83,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material End 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - In Chile, the copper supply is in a recovery cycle. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 3.5% year - on - year to 1.752 million metric tons, with an absolute increase of 59,000 metric tons. The government expects a 3% increase in production in 2025 to 5.672 million metric tons, but there are uncertainties. Large - scale projects like Escondida have significant production increases, while some mines like Collahuasi and Anglo American Sur have lower - than - normal production [19][21] - In Peru, the copper mine is in a restorative growth period. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 887,000 metric tons, with an absolute increase of about 41,000 metric tons. The government expects the annual production to be around 2.8 million metric tons. Some projects have production differentiations, and the government's policies to stimulate production have limited effects for now [29][31] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the copper production was in a high - growth period but has faced challenges this year. Geopolitical issues, infrastructure weaknesses, and resource nationalism have affected production. The output of the Kamoa - Kakula project has been significantly reduced, and the production forecast for 2025 has been greatly lowered [34][35][36] - In China, copper production has been in a recovery phase since 2022 but is constrained by factors such as ore grade decline and aging mines. The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 is estimated to be 250,000 - 350,000 metric tons, with different trends in different regions [37][40] - From a company perspective, the production of major mining companies in 2024 increased by 3.3% to 17.05 million metric tons. In 2025, the growth is expected to be 2.1% to 17.41 million metric tons, mainly due to disruptions in African mines [42][43] - Regarding new projects, the marginal contribution of new global copper mines before 2028 is decreasing. Policy instability and external environment changes are the main risks for project delays or cancellations [46] 3.1.2 Recycled Materials - Overseas, due to the shortage of copper concentrate, smelters are relying more on cold materials. European smelters are competing for scrap copper, and India is increasing scrap copper imports. The US has new scrap - copper - based processing enterprises, and its scrap copper export ratio is expected to decline [50][52] - In China, smelters' demand for cold materials has increased, but supply has been restricted. From January to May, scrap copper imports decreased by nearly 2% year - on - year to 962,000 physical tons, mainly due to tariff policies and overseas demand. Domestic scrap copper supply is also constrained by fiscal and tax policies and profit margins. The supply of anode copper has also decreased [55][59] 3.1.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2024 was 530,000 - 550,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons in 2025. The copper raw material gap in China is expected to widen in 2025, and copper prices can regulate cold material supply. Attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policies [62][63] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Domestic Market - The shortage of copper concentrate has led to a decline in processing fees. If the long - term processing fee is set at a low level, Chinese smelters may face industry - wide losses. Sulfuric acid price increases have provided some support, but there are uncertainties. The planned production increase of major listed smelters in 2025 is to 8.5 million tons, but raw material shortages may limit production. The marginal growth of China's refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 600,000 - 700,000 metric tons [70][77][83] 3.2.2 Overseas Market - In Chile, the decline in refined copper production is significant, with an expected 10% decrease in 2025. Similar situations exist in Mexico. Overseas smelters are showing a trend of production cuts, mainly due to raw material constraints and processing fee decreases. The risk of a decline in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is increasing [86][91][92] 3.2.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2024 was 650,000 - 700,000 metric tons, and it is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons in 2025. The transfer of the raw material shortage to smelters takes time. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid prices and cold materials on smelters [94][95] 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1 Macro Level - From an economic cycle perspective, the global economy is in a transition from "recession" to "recovery," with different economic situations in different countries. The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the Fed's monetary policy shift is uncertain. The US dollar's credit cycle is weakening, and copper's financial attributes are expected to increase [97] - From a manufacturing cycle perspective, the global manufacturing PMI is around 50, and the recovery will be more differentiated. Tariff policies are the core external factor affecting manufacturing [102] - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit is expected to expand, and the US dollar will continue to depreciate. Copper will play a more important role in resource currency, and investment in copper will provide support [102] 3.3.2 Traditional Demand: China - In the power industry, grid investment is expected to grow steadily, with a focus on UHV projects and distribution network upgrades. Power source investment growth is slowing down, but there may be new drivers in 2026. Overseas exports of electrical equipment have been strong, but are affected by external policies [106][112][115] - In the home appliance industry, domestic air - conditioner sales and production increased in the first four months of 2025. Domestic sales may decline in the third quarter, while overseas sales are relatively strong but face risks from tariff policies. High inventory levels may limit production [117][119] - In the real estate industry, policies are being strengthened, but the industry is still in a bottom - building phase and will drag down copper demand this year, with a possible return to positive demand in 2026 - 2027 [120][121] - In the transportation industry, domestic automobile production is growing strongly, with new - energy vehicles as the main growth driver. However, it is affected by policy subsidies and consumer income expectations. China's automobile exports are facing bottlenecks [122][124] - The marginal growth of China's traditional copper demand in 2024 was 255,000 - 475,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 132,000 - 392,000 metric tons in 2025, with risks in the second half of the year [132] 3.3.3 Traditional Demand: Overseas - In the US, policies have increased inflation expectations and economic uncertainties. The real estate and durable - goods consumption markets show a downward trend but not a significant decline. The US government's policies on power infrastructure and renewable energy will drive copper demand growth [133][136][137]