Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff increases announced by the Trump administration, particularly focusing on the impact on U.S. imports from China and the potential for new trade routes through third-party countries [5][10][12]. Group 1: Tariff Impacts - The U.S. announced a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, which is expected to lead to a significant increase in prices for imported goods and a reduction in the volume of imports [5][6]. - The CEO of the Port of Long Beach predicts a 44% decrease in the number of ships arriving in the week of May 4-10 compared to the previous year, indicating a substantial drop in import volumes [7]. - The U.S. is likely to enter a phase of inventory depletion due to reduced imports, which could lead to rising prices and job losses in the logistics sector [9]. Group 2: Trade Opportunities - The article suggests that a new trade route involving China, third-party countries, and the U.S. will emerge, creating significant opportunities for global traders [12][14]. - The 137th Canton Fair saw a notable increase in foreign buyers, with participation from 224,372 overseas purchasers, a 20.2% increase from the previous year, indicating heightened interest in Chinese goods [15][17]. - The article posits that global traders are recognizing the potential for profit through intermediary trade routes as U.S.-China direct trade diminishes [19]. Group 3: Regional Trade Shifts - Vietnam and Mexico are highlighted as beneficiaries of the trade war, with exports to the U.S. from Vietnam projected to nearly double from $83.9 billion in 2018 to $161.9 billion in 2024, a 92.9% increase [27]. - Exports from China to Mexico are expected to grow from $44.0 billion in 2018 to $90.2 billion in 2024, reflecting a 105% increase [28]. - Taiwan is also expected to benefit, with exports from China projected to rise from $48.6 billion in 2018 to $75.2 billion in 2024, a 54.6% increase [29]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the global trade network is vast, and even with reduced direct trade between the U.S. and China, trade will continue through third-party channels [37][38]. - The U.S. faces challenges in imposing tariffs on other countries, as many nations are economically strained and may not easily concede to U.S. demands [31]. - The article argues that the U.S. lacks a coherent long-term strategy for revitalizing its manufacturing sector, which complicates its ability to compete globally [39][43].

而且我们也能看到，美国前财政部长耶伦曾多次访华，这一切都显示拜登政府不愿在经济领域和中国彻底撕破脸，与之相反的是，拜登或许还 想着增加中美贸易联系。 如今的关税乱局由特朗普而起，但造成的负面影响却是需要整个世界来买单。当然，作为世界第一大经济体的美国，在这其中所受到的冲击最 大。 在此之前谁都没有想到，中美两国之间的关税，能够一度飙升至145%——在一些分析人士看来，这样的关税额度已经实质上将中美贸易掐断 了。 中美贸易的实质停摆，或许真会出现在这个经济全球化的时代？很明显，这是一个"冷笑话"。 要知道，在拜登政府时期，尽管美国一直在提及中美经济脱钩，但是一直停留在口头上，因为美国人非常清楚，失去中国商品会让美国经济遭 遇前所未有的困境。 这一点，可以从耶伦对特朗普关税政策的态度可以看出。耶伦在接受采访时公开提到：特朗普的关税就是在"自裁"，如此看来特朗普还颇 具"武士道精神"？ 甚至耶伦还把美国的"遮羞布"撕开了，她提到：到现在为止，自己甚至都不知道特朗普征收关税的目的是什么，如果说是为了让制造业回归美 国的话，那就是白日梦，基本上不可能实现。 谁都知道特朗普目前干的事情确实有些疯狂，可为什么特朗普要疯狂加 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.30」 贵金属市场周报 市场情绪持续修复，短期回调压力仍存 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：本周贵金属市场呈高位震荡回调态势，伴随美国政府就关税问题的态度反转并释 放中美贸易缓和信号，市场风险偏好边际修复，金价回调压力显现。地缘方面，尽管俄乌局 势仍有反复，但普京近期释放和谈信号缓解市场紧张情绪。经济数据方面，美国达拉斯联储 商业活动指数创下疫情以来新低，4月消费者信心连续第五个月下滑，职位空缺环比走弱， 显示经济基本面承压，强化市场对年中降息的押注。尽管美联储5月按兵不动已成市场共识， 但年中降息预期有所升温，推动美债收益率下行。关税方面，特朗普近日表达放宽对华关税 的意愿，而中方亦宣布对部分美国产品实施关税豁免。此外，特朗普政府正寻求通过取降低 汽车零部件进口关税，以减少汽车关税对美国市场的影响，整体来看关税风险区域下行，但 不确定性犹存。资金面来看，尽管CFTC黄金净多头寸回落至14个月新低，显示短线多头情绪 有所降温，但全球央行购金趋势延续。白银则在宏观衰退预期边际缓解与工业需求预期改善 的双重驱动下表现相对坚挺，金银比维持在历史高位水平， ...

答：我们注意到有关报道。中美两国在民航领域保持了长期互利合作，有力推动了两国贸易和人员往来。美方 挥舞关税大棒严重冲击全球产业链供应链稳定，扰乱国际航空运输市场，很多企业无法开展正常贸易投资活 动，中国的相关航空公司、美国波音公司都深受其害。中方愿继续支持两国企业开展正常的商业合作，希望美 方能倾听企业的呼声，为企业正常贸易投资活动创造稳定可预期的环境。 据商务部，有记者问：据媒体报道，近日，波音公司飞回3架拟交付中国航空公司的波音737Max飞机，称中方 已停止接收波音客机，请问中方有何评论？ ...

据统计，我国每年向美国出口9309万部手机，按照美国人口约3.3亿计算，相当于每个美国人三年就能 更换一次手机。这是一个多么可怕的数字，美国的消费电子市场已经基本被我国占据，而美国能够从中 获得的利润微乎其微，因为绝大部分的生产都是在我国完成的。 相对而言，美国对我国的出口就显得弱小得多了。以猪肉为例，去年我国从美国总共购买了41.6万吨的 猪肉，其中美国只占18%，而且近几日还取消了从美国进口1.2万吨猪肉的订单，这一举动几乎是对美 国关税政策的直接回应。 文/美好 中美贸易的背后，隐藏着怎样的产业变迁和经济博弈？当我国的智能手机出口数量让人咋舌，而美国的 农产品却显得无力回天，这背后的故事可真是耐人寻味，你知道？每个美国人三年就能换一次手机，这 个数据背后又有多少经济学问？ 中美贸易结构的变化 我国的制造业正在向高技术、高附加值领域转型，而美国的出口则更多依赖于农业和矿产。虽然两国都 是世界经济中的重要角色，但是他们的贸易结构却截然相反，这也在不断变化的中美贸易中得到了印 证。 我国向美国出口的智能手机金额已经达到了2500亿元，虽然苹果手机的设计在美国，但是绝大部分都是 在我国加工生产。可以说，我国已经 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views - **Nickel**: Despite a short - term rebound due to cost - related factors and market sentiment, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Philippines after the rainy season and the demand difference between stainless steel and nickel due to US tariff policies [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily receded. In the short - term, the supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to long - term, the market remains in an oversupply state, with a bearish outlook [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: In 2024, GreenMei achieved an operating income of 33.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.19%. The annual output of nickel metal was 51,677 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91%. The company has built a nickel resource production capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia [1]. - **Zinc**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts that in 2025, the global refined zinc supply will exceed demand by 93,000 tons. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will grow by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons [4]. Mine End - **Nickel**: Indonesia raised mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel mines at the port of destination in the Philippines rebounded. Although the seasonal loosening of the nickel mine supply has not yet appeared, under normal circumstances, the possibility of the mine end turning loose is still high [1]. - **Zinc**: The profit of mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but the TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. Meanwhile, imports at the mine end have significantly recovered [4]. Smelting - **Nickel**: China's imports of pure nickel are relatively small, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at a historically high level. The production cost of electrowinning nickel has risen to 124,000 yuan per ton [2]. - **Zinc**: The TC price at the smelting end has rebounded to 3,400 - 3,500 yuan per ton. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but with by - product income, the profit has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts is extremely low [5]. Demand - **Nickel**: Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list, so its export demand may increase, which may form a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively high price of nickel - iron has led to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while social inventory has started to accumulate. Galvanizing manufacturers' expectations for terminal demand are pessimistic, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant reliance of American households on products imported from China, as illustrated by a visual representation in The New York Times [1][20] Group 1: Product Dependency - Kitchen products such as scissors, can openers, thermos cups, plates, utensils, frying pans, and steamers have over 70% dependency on imports from China [4] - Major appliances like microwaves have over 90% reliance on Chinese imports, while refrigerators and stoves have 52% and 51% dependency, respectively [5] - In the living room, products like lamps, gaming consoles, picture frames, toys, wall clocks, children's books, and artificial plants also show over 70% reliance on Chinese imports [8] Group 2: Other Areas of Dependency - In the balcony area, items such as chairs, umbrellas, and charcoal grills have a dependency rate of 70% to 90% on Chinese imports [10] - Office supplies like computers and desk lamps exceed 70% reliance on imports from China, while bathroom items such as mirrors, scales, nail clippers, and sinks also show over 50% dependency [12] - In the bedroom, products like cosmetics, first aid kits, hair dryers, combs, blankets, and alarm clocks have over 70% reliance on Chinese imports, with pillows exceeding 60% [15] Group 3: Seasonal and Miscellaneous Items - Laundry items such as electric irons and hangers have over 90% dependency on Chinese imports, while storage items like flashlights, strollers, and holiday decorations also exceed 90% [18] - The article emphasizes that without Chinese products, even celebrating national holidays would be challenging for Americans [18] Group 4: Automotive Dependency - Although American cars are not directly imported from China, many components, including batteries for electric vehicles, are sourced from China, indicating that tariffs will increase costs for American consumers when buying or repairing vehicles [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the deep reliance of American households on Chinese-made products and the potential consequences of tariffs on these imports, including shortages, reduced choices, and increased prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Dependency on Chinese Products - A significant portion of essential household items in the U.S. is imported from China, with some products having import rates as high as 99%, such as toasters [5][7]. - The article illustrates that many everyday items, including kitchenware, personal care products, and even fireworks for celebrations, are predominantly sourced from China, indicating a profound dependency [2][7][10]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The imposition of tariffs has led to some production shifting to countries like Mexico and Vietnam, but many products still rely on Chinese components, particularly in the automotive sector where electric vehicle batteries are often sourced from China [2][9][10]. - The tariffs have resulted in increased costs for consumers, with estimates suggesting that a typical American household could face an additional $4,700 in expenses due to new tariffs [12][13]. Group 3: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Since 2018, there has been a gradual shift in consumer purchasing patterns, with some products being sourced from non-Chinese countries, although many items still carry the "Made in China" label [9][10]. - The article notes that while some high-end furniture and large items like mattresses are still produced domestically, the overall trend indicates a growing reliance on imports from other countries due to tariff pressures [9][10].

特朗普一番话，金融市场又风向突转。 在经历"股债汇"三杀后，昨晚美股、美元重振旗鼓，紧跟着今天亚洲新兴市场开始收复失地。 前期重挫的越南、泰国股市回暖，日韩、港A股市纷纷高开高走， 其中，MSCI新兴市场指数、日经225指数、韩国综合指数均涨超1%，恒指涨超3%，台湾加权指数涨超4%。 此前一路狂飙的黄金"疯牛"则断崖跳水。 原以为关税大棒一顿乱挥，能让美国制造业起死回生，最后却"搬起石头砸了自己的脚"。 在"特朗普衰退"面前，善变的川普昨晚突然改口"服软"。 他一边说，没打算让鲍威尔走人；一边承认对华关税太高，拟大幅下降。 另外，特朗普还派美财长贝森特释放谈判信号，暗示中美贸易紧张局势最终会缓和。 果然，朝令夕改、反复无常是他一贯风格了。 周三亚市早盘，现货黄金高位跳水，最低触及3312美元/盎司；虽然随后短暂回升，但此后跌势仍难止。 目前，现货黄金跌破了3330美元/盎司关口，日内跌1.66%；COMEX黄金期货报3340.7美元/盎司，日内跌2.3%。 今天，港、A贵金属板块集体下挫，黄金股深度回调。 截至发稿，港股赤峰黄金大跌超14%，潼关黄金跌超10%，山东黄金跌超9%，招金矿业跌超8%。A股赤峰黄 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1%, and total market turnover exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The macroeconomic data for the first quarter showed strong export performance, supported by the "export grabbing" effect, while retail sales and fixed asset investment showed marginal improvement [1] - Concerns remain regarding potential volatility in export data due to high tariffs imposed by the US on China, although a 90-day tariff suspension from other countries provides a buffer [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.1% and for five years or more at 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month [2] - The fiscal policy is expected to lead, with monetary policy having room to follow, indicating that a reserve requirement ratio cut may occur before interest rate cuts [2][3] Market Performance - As of April 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3291.43 points, up 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% and 1.59%, respectively [4] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, computers, and beauty care, while banking, food and beverage, and real estate sectors saw declines [4] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 10,738.10 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance decreased to 18,038.40 billion yuan [5]