Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the U.S. government's unilateral tariff policies have impacted global trade order, yet Chinese foreign trade continues to progress steadily in a complex environment. The recent U.S.-China Geneva trade talks have opened a 90-day "foreign trade window" for companies to adapt and innovate [1]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Trade - The company experienced significant inventory issues due to U.S. tariffs, with many products, including refrigerators, being stuck in warehouses. However, the recent trade window has allowed for the reshipment of these goods [1][3]. - From 2021 to 2024, the company's average annual export to the U.S. reached 600 million RMB, accounting for 50% of its total exports. Following the new round of tariff adjustments, U.S. clients quickly resumed orders [5]. - The logistics sector is adapting to the challenges posed by rising shipping costs, with U.S. buyers willing to pay double the transportation costs to expedite shipments [5][9]. Group 2: Innovation and Adaptation - The company has leveraged innovation as a key strategy to overcome challenges, exemplified by the development of the world's first countertop ice ball machine, which took years of research to perfect [7]. - Some companies have proactively managed tariff risks by preparing contracts that account for potential tariff increases, allowing them to maintain steady exports even during high tariff periods [15][20]. - The company has successfully maintained long-term relationships with U.S. clients, ensuring consistent growth despite tariff fluctuations [16]. Group 3: Market Expansion and New Products - Companies are exploring new markets and product lines, such as the "starry sky room," which features innovative design and materials, targeting international customers [25][32]. - The company has increased production capacity to fulfill new orders from Middle Eastern clients, demonstrating adaptability in product offerings [29]. - The use of advanced materials in new products has positioned the company to meet international standards and consumer preferences, enhancing market competitiveness [32].

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. government's unilateral tariff policies have impacted global trade, but China's foreign trade continues to progress steadily in a complex environment [1] - A 90-day "foreign trade window" has been established following the U.S.-China Geneva economic talks, allowing Chinese companies to adapt and innovate [1][3] - Guangzhou's Wanbao Group, which previously faced inventory issues due to U.S. tariffs, has resumed shipping products during this window [3] Group 2: Export Performance - Wanbao Group's average annual export to the U.S. is approximately 600 million RMB, accounting for 50% of its total exports [3] - Following the new round of U.S.-China tariff adjustments, U.S. clients have quickly contacted the company to restart shipments [3] - The logistics challenges include skyrocketing sea freight costs, with U.S. buyers willing to pay double the transportation costs to expedite shipments [3] Group 3: Innovation and Product Development - Wanbao Group has a history of innovation, being the first to produce China's home refrigerator and now exporting to nearly 100 countries [4] - The company has developed the world's first countertop ice ball machine, which presents significant technical challenges [6] - Innovation is deemed essential for manufacturing companies to navigate market challenges [6] Group 4: Logistics and Supply Chain Management - Logistics companies are actively addressing the challenges posed by the U.S.-China trade tensions, with many processing trade enterprises facing dual tariffs [9] - Some companies are shifting from U.S. imports to domestic suppliers to mitigate increased costs due to tariffs [9] - Logistics firms are offering bonded warehouses to help companies manage export tax refunds and adapt to market conditions [9] Group 5: Trade Volume Growth - From January to May this year, the cargo volume through Guangzhou Nansha Port reached 28.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [10] - The number of foreign trade containers handled during the same period was 3.22 million, reflecting a 37.2% year-on-year growth [10] - The busy operations at the port indicate a strong demand for shipping services as companies rush to meet deadlines [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on industrial growth, consumer spending, and investment trends for 2025. [1][2][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: In May 2025, industrial added value exceeded expectations with a month-on-month growth rate higher than previous years, indicating resilience in the production sector. The probability of GDP growth exceeding 5% in the first half of the year is high. [1][2] - **Investment Trends**: Real estate investment continues to decline, with a drop of 10.7% in May 2025. However, manufacturing and infrastructure investments show growth, with manufacturing up 8.5% and infrastructure up 10.4%. Adjustments in local government debt limits are expected to support major project construction in the second half of the year. [5][8] - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth reached 6.4% year-on-year in May 2025, the first time exceeding 6% since last year. The "trade-in" policy and promotional events significantly boosted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication equipment. [6][9] - **Employment Stability**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remains stable at 5%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a solid overall employment situation that supports economic development. [7][8] - **Economic Outlook**: The economic growth in the second half of 2025 is expected to be weaker than the first half, but fluctuations are anticipated to be minor. The foundation laid in the first half, along with increased local budgets and expanded major project space, supports the likelihood of achieving annual targets. [8][11] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Policies**: The "trade-in" policy has led to significant sales, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan from January to May 2025, supported by approximately 130 billion yuan in fiscal funding. However, some regions have adjusted or paused the policy due to rapid fund usage. [4][10] - **Trade Dynamics**: Exports showed a mixed performance, with a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. attributed to extreme tariff impacts. Despite this, the reliance of the U.S. on Chinese imports remains high, suggesting a potential for recovery in trade. [15][16] - **Financial Data**: The growth rate of social financing has narrowed, with weak credit performance. Government bond issuance has become a key factor in supporting the economy, and the financial system's support for the real economy has strengthened. [19][20] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: There is a call for maintaining macroeconomic policy stability while promoting domestic demand to foster long-term growth. The necessity of existing policies is emphasized, even with some economic data exceeding expectations. [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future expectations for the industry.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★☆ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★☆ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ★★☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★★★ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows complex trends affected by multiple factors, including policies, weather, geopolitics, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different characteristics and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - For most products, weather is a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term, especially from June to August [2][3] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade still exist, and the market is currently treated as volatile [3] Summary by Product Beans 1 - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate strongly. Policy trading volume is low, and warehouse receipts decrease year - on - year. Short - term weather in Northeast China is beneficial to crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive, which supports CBOT soybean prices. In the medium term, weather will drive price fluctuations both overseas and domestically [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The Israel - Iran war and the US EPA policy drive up US soybean and soybean meal prices. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply is loose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The market is currently volatile, and attention should be paid to the oil end and future weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - In China, oil is strong and meal is weak, and the oil - meal ratio rises significantly. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive for the long - term, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Geopolitics, biodiesel policies, and产区 weather are the main factors affecting rapeseed futures prices. Currently, multiple factors are positive, and a bullish strategy is maintained [6] Corn - The USDA June corn report is slightly positive. Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures first rose and then eased. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot prices rebound slightly. In the short term, there is downward pressure on prices, but in the medium term, policy support may provide price support [8] Eggs - Egg futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. Spot prices and near - term futures are rebounding. However, if the price rebounds too quickly, there is a risk of price fluctuations [9]

Market Overview - The overall market declined last week, with the Wind All A Index and the CSI A500 both down by 0.27% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 1.37 trillion, showing a week-on-week rise [1] Industry Performance - In the CITIC primary industry sectors, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals led the gains, while food and beverage, computers, and building materials saw declines [1] Trade Relations - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, with a framework agreement reached to implement the consensus from the June 5 call between the two countries' leaders [1] - The US expressed a desire to reach a resolution with China regarding rare earth issues, and China has approved some export license applications related to rare earths [1] - Overall, the dialogue mechanism between China and the US is progressing in an orderly manner, with manageable short-term market impacts [1] Geopolitical Risks - The sixth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US scheduled for the 15th has been canceled, leading to heightened tensions in the Middle East and escalating geopolitical risks [1] Domestic Macro Data - In domestic macroeconomic data, May exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, but exports to the US saw a significant decline of 34.5% [2] - Both CPI and PPI showed negative year-on-year growth in May, indicating that inflation levels are still in a bottoming phase [2] - M1 growth reached 2.3%, the highest in nearly a year, while M2 growth remained stable, indicating overall liquidity is maintained [2] International Macro Data - In the US, May CPI data was below market expectations for the fourth consecutive month, and PPI showed moderate increases, suggesting mild inflationary pressures [2] - President Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, with an announcement regarding the next Fed chair expected soon [2] Investment Opportunities - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may create short-term market volatility, but there could be "correction opportunities" following any mispricing [2] - Investors are advised to focus on stable income-generating assets such as the 10-year Treasury ETF, cash flow ETF, and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF [2]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 3377.00 points, and the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.33% [1] - The ChiNext Index rose 0.12%, while the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.89%, and the Northern Exchange 50 Index dropped 3.11% [1] - On Monday, A-shares saw a broad rally led by innovative pharmaceuticals and military stocks, while food and beverage stocks like liquor declined [1] Economic Factors - A-shares faced a significant drop on Tuesday due to negative rumors regarding US-China trade talks, but recovered some losses by the end of the day [1] - Official announcements confirmed progress in US-China trade negotiations, leading to a rebound on Wednesday [1] - The market showed limited upward momentum on Thursday, as it was still uncertain about the details of the trade agreement [1] Geopolitical Influences - A-shares fell sharply on Friday due to escalating tensions in the Middle East following an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, with sectors like oil and gas, military, and precious metals seeing gains [1] Investment Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, the current low valuation of A-shares presents a good investment opportunity, and investors are advised to maintain a hold-and-watch strategy [2] - The potential for gradual accumulation of capital in A-shares exists, which could lead to a rise in market sentiment over time [2] Upcoming Events - Investors should monitor the details of US-China trade negotiations and the situation in the Middle East next week [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is also significant, as any inclination towards interest rate cuts could positively impact the A-share market [3] - Participation in the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19 is recommended for short-term investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing has resumed aircraft deliveries to Chinese airlines, marking a significant step in the recovery of its operations in China after a prolonged pause due to trade tensions between the US and China [1] Group 1 - Boeing delivered a new 787-9 aircraft to Juneyao Airlines, indicating a restart of deliveries to Chinese carriers [1] - The previous halt in deliveries was a result of the US-China trade war, which led to Chinese airlines suspending the acceptance of Boeing aircraft [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term bottom of thermal coal is emerging [3][4]. - For crude oil, both the optimistic expectations in China and the US and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, and it is questioned whether the soaring market can continue [3][8]. - For asphalt, it has encountered a decline after reaching a five - year high, and it is questioned whether the cracking trend has reversed [3][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Thermal Coal - The premium of high - calorie coal at Bohai Rim ports is presented, showing the price trends of Mongolian coal with different calorific values [5]. Crude Oil Demand - side Outlook - The results of the London talks are limited, and there are still uncertainties in the reciprocal tariffs. The China - US container ship departure volume and shipping freight rates are affected by trade policies [12][13]. - A series of trade events have occurred, including the US - UK trade agreement on May 8, the Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement on May 12, the Sino - US presidential phone call consensus on June 5, and the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism on June 9 - 10. Attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress before the expiration of the US tariff exemptions for most countries on July 8 and the expiration of the 24% reciprocal tariff exemption between China and the US in mid - August [14]. - The 4 - week average year - on - year growth rate of US refined oil apparent demand is +0.5%, with gasoline at - 2.5%, diesel at - 5.9%, and jet fuel at +1.3%. The latest ground congestion index is up 0.1% year - on - year [23][25]. - The refining profits of European and American refineries are under pressure again, and the subsequent start - up demand is more seasonally supported [26]. Geopolitical Risks - There are continuous geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as the US - UK joint air strike on the Houthi in January, the Russian terminal being attacked by Ukrainian drones in January, the Iranian consulate in Syria being attacked in April, the Iranian attack on Israel in April, and the Israeli retaliatory air strike on Iran in April. The Brent crude oil price has risen significantly due to these events [30][32][33]. - The Strait of Hormuz is an important oil transportation channel. In 2023 H1, its crude oil and condensate transportation volume was 14.7 million barrels per day, and the refined oil transportation volume was 5.8 million barrels per day. Threats to block it can cause significant fluctuations in oil prices [35]. Supply - side Situation - Some oil tankers are under sanctions, which affects the transportation of oil. The production and export of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil are also affected by various factors [37]. - The number of US non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs and the capital expenditure plans of US shale oil listed companies are related to oil production [43][44]. - The production and production targets of OPEC + countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, are presented [48][51][52][53]. Price and Inventory - The futures settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are affected by various factors such as the financial crisis, OPEC's production decisions, and geopolitical events [55]. - The inventory data of crude oil and refined oil, including on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory, are provided [59][62]. - The global demand for OPEC + crude oil supply, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory are analyzed [64]. Asphalt Cracking Situation - In March 2025, it was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on BU cracking on pullbacks. After late May, the cracking has declined from the high level, but the upward elasticity of the cracking spread remains unchanged due to low supply, low inventory, and other factors. The sudden rise in oil prices since June 11 has caused the BU cracking to decline passively [71]. Supply - side Constraints - The year - on - year changes in asphalt production of different regions and enterprises in 2025 are presented. Local refineries have problems with non - quota raw materials and rely on crude oil quotas. The import of Venezuelan oil by local refineries in 2025 has accelerated the consumption of crude oil quotas, and the production and export of Venezuelan crude oil are still restricted [72][73][78]. Demand - side Situation - The road demand for asphalt has limited new demand growth, but the maintenance demand is rising. The consumption of asphalt for road maintenance is gradually catching up with that for new road construction. In the neutral scenario, the asphalt demand for roads in 2025 is expected to be 21.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [87][90]. - The shipment of 54 sample asphalt refineries has been improving since late April, and the year - on - year growth has turned positive since the end of May. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds and the domestic sales of road rollers are positive, and Q3 is a key observation window for asphalt demand [94]. Inventory Situation - The asphalt inventory is at a relatively low level, and the balance sheet is expected to continue the de - stocking trend in the third quarter [95][97].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-13） | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | 态势，需求端铁水产量环比回落 | 0.19 | 万吨至 | 241.61 | 万吨，连续五周下行， | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水 | 铁矿石 | 逢高沽空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | 关税至 | 50%，资金和情绪端表现出偏空。产业端淡季，后续利润或逐步收 | 缩，钢厂缓慢减产，策略上，前期空单建议继续持有，情绪性反弹可酌情 | | | | | | | 加仓。 | 煤焦：部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产，但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿 | 煤焦 | 低位震荡 | ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. bond market has risen as traders fully digest expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, supported by recent producer price index and unemployment claims data [2] - The UK economy has contracted, with a 0.3% month-on-month decline in GDP for April, leading to soaring expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Neta Auto has announced that employees will work from home following a protest over unpaid wages, indicating operational challenges and potential future layoffs [2] - Kweichow Moutai's wholesale price has dropped below 2000 yuan, reflecting a nearly 10% decline since February due to seasonal consumption and increased supply [3] - Country Garden faces difficulties in debt restructuring, with management expressing hope for completion despite creditor reluctance and ongoing performance issues [3] - Western Gold plans to acquire 100% equity of Xinjiang Meisheng for 1.655 billion yuan, indicating strong production potential with a confirmed operational timeline [5] Group 3: Trade Relations and Policy Impacts - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a framework to ease tensions, positively impacting Asian stock markets [5] - The Chinese government is considering raising minimum wage standards, which could stimulate consumption and support the stock market [3]