本周上证指数跌 0.25%，沪深 300 跌 0.25%，恒生指数涨 0.42%。小盘股涨幅较 大，本周全 A 日均交易额 13716 亿，环比上周有所上升。在此，我们强调：6 月大 盘指数依然是在 407 黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"，临近震荡区间上沿就有回落压 力。中期来看，对于后续市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由意外事件导致 中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代表的核心资产占优）， 类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是高股息为核心的杠铃策略）， 类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科 技"跷跷板"双轮动）。目前看"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"5 月军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"使得市场逐渐意识到"新胜于旧" 的定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。 近期发生的一系列重大事件对于市场的影响值得探讨，总体而言虽然外部环境波谲 云诡，但对于 A 股资产定价并未造成明确"二次探底"风险。事实上，需明确：国内 5 月经济数据虽然显示内需孱弱，但在 ...

资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 金融界6月10日消息，上证指数高开低走，中证湖北新旧动能转换指数 (湖北指数，931393)下跌1.19%， 报2187.44点，成交额244.62亿元。 跟踪湖北指数的公募基金包括：博时中证湖北新旧动能转换ETF。 数据统计显示，中证湖北新旧动能转换指数近一个月上涨1.89%，近三个月下跌1.03%，年至今上涨 5.23%。 据了解，中证湖北新旧动能转换指数在沪深市场中选取湖北省代表性上市公司证券作为指数样本，在综 合得分加权的基础上，通过新旧动能产业属性进行权重系数调整，以反映沪深市场湖北省上市公司证券 的整体表现。该指数以2012年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，中证湖北新旧动能转换指数十大权重分别为：华工科技（2.59%） ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the recent market trends and investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of understanding past market characteristics to strategize for future operations [2] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The recent market investment style is summarized as "new, small, fast," with notable performance in AI and new consumption sectors, indicating a shift towards new industrial logic [3] - Smaller market capitalization stocks have outperformed larger ones, driven by improved risk appetite among individual investors, with new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reaching a record high since 2021 [5] - The dual influx of retail and insurance funds has shaped the market characteristics this year, favoring small-cap and high-dividend banking stocks [5] Group 2: Investment Factors - The concept of scarcity is highlighted, particularly in the context of Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, technology, and consumption showing significant strength due to their scarcity [6] - The ongoing transformation of economic drivers is noted, with new consumption and AI applications in Hong Kong stocks becoming more attractive to investors [6] - The reports suggest that both funding attributes and scarcity are crucial in understanding past market trends and will continue to be significant factors in future market dynamics [6]

摘要 小微企业受关税及摩擦成本影响显著，利润空间受挤压，海外订单新增 受阻，美国进口商持谨慎态度，对小微企业造成较大冲击。 中国房地产市场一季度短暂回升后再次进入低位徘徊，表明财政刺激政 策力度减弱，内需和外需均不积极，经济基本面在低位企稳。 中美谈判聚焦稀土出口和技术封锁，关税进一步下调难度大。陆家嘴论 坛或将公布金融政策，如推动中长期资金入市、提高企业分红等，并可 能出台生育补贴和新型政策性金融工具。 港股市场受益于新消费与新科技资产占比高，以及美元例外论瓦解后非 美元资产上涨的趋势，在全球资本外溢中具备优势。 美国 5 月褐皮书显示经济温和增长，但贸易政策不确定性对餐饮、零售、 旅游及制造业产生压力，企业对未来招聘持谨慎态度，价格压力依然存 在。 美国企业面临需求疲软导致价格上涨无法完全转嫁给消费者的问题，利 润空间受挤压，贸易政策不确定性影响企业和消费者信心。 美国 PMI 数据显示新订单急速下跌，通胀明显抬升，滞胀压力显现。美 股上涨与关税缓和预期相关，美债收益率小幅上升，美元保持反弹。 Q&A 近期国内经济的主要变化和市场策略有哪些？ 近期国内经济数据虽然整体稳定，但出现了一些微妙变化。例如，5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a positive trend, driven by factors such as improved risk appetite due to easing US-China trade relations and significant inflows into the Hang Seng Tech ETF [2][3][8] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF has seen over 2% increase in intraday trading, with net inflows exceeding 2.1 billion yuan in the past 60 days [1][5] - The current market environment is characterized by a shift in consumption patterns and technological advancements, particularly in AI, which are attracting investor interest in Hong Kong stocks [4][7][9] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares due to their unique asset characteristics and the scarcity of certain stocks related to new consumption and AI applications [3][7] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7, which is considered attractive compared to global standards [9] - The influx of southbound capital indicates a strong demand for Hong Kong stocks, particularly from domestic institutions, which is expected to continue supporting the market [8][9]

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Index has seen a slight decline of 0.09% as of June 5, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting a volatile market environment [1] - The CSI 300 ETF has recorded a trading volume of 202 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.255 billion yuan over the past year, ranking among the top three comparable funds [1] - The latest scale of the CSI 300 ETF has reached 168.307 billion yuan, indicating significant investor interest and participation [1] Group 2 - Leverage funds are increasingly positioning themselves in the market, with a net financing purchase amount of 8.8768 million yuan on the previous trading day and a total financing balance of 1.088 billion yuan [1] - The valuation of the CSI 300 Index is at a historical low, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.3, which is below 81.03% of the time since the index's inception, suggesting attractive valuation opportunities [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index account for 23.22% of the index, with notable companies including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance [1] Group 3 - East Wu Securities emphasizes the solid foundation for China's high-quality economic development and the transition between old and new growth drivers, indicating a positive long-term economic outlook [2] - Citic Securities predicts a potential annual-level rally in Chinese equity assets over the next year, with a significant shift in market style from small-cap stocks to core asset trends [2] Group 4 - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724), providing an opportunity for low-cost entry into the market [3]

Economic Data Summary - In the first four months of 2025, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in national high-tech zones reached 10.26 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [3] - The innovation-driven and industrial agglomeration effects continue to be released [3] Industry Development - The Zhongguancun new generation information technology industry has entered the trillion-level industry cluster [5] - The scale of the optical electronics information industry in Wuhan East Lake accounts for 50% of the national total [5] - National high-tech zones have laid out cutting-edge fields such as quantum information, humanoid robots, and next-generation internet, forming initial development advantages in related future industries [5] Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - The renovation of old urban residential areas has accelerated, with plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas nationwide in 2025 [8] - In the first four months of 2025, 5,679 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation, with six provinces and cities having a startup rate exceeding 50% [10] - Central finance will provide subsidies to 20 cities for urban renewal actions, with each city receiving no more than 1.2 billion yuan [13] Commodity Price Index - In May, China's commodity price index rose slightly by 0.3% month-on-month, reaching 110.3 points [16] - Among 50 monitored commodities, 17 saw price increases in May [16] - The non-ferrous price index rose by 0.9%, while the chemical price index rebounded by 0.5% [17] International Air Cargo - Since the beginning of 2025, over 100 new international air cargo routes have been opened, with a focus on Asia and Europe [21][23] - The cargo structure mainly consists of electronic products, auto parts, machinery, and fresh goods [23] - In May alone, 26 new international air cargo routes were opened, with a cumulative total of 101 routes in the first five months of 2025 [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a mixed performance in the prices of major commodities in China, with some sectors showing recovery while others continue to decline [1][2][3] - In May, the China Commodity Price Index was reported at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating a slight recovery in the market [3] - Among 50 monitored commodities, 17 showed a month-on-month price increase, with the non-ferrous price index at 127.7 points, up 0.9%, and the chemical price index rebounding by 0.5% [1] Group 2 - Agricultural product prices have risen for five consecutive months, demonstrating resilience in the agricultural sector and its role in stabilizing supply and prices [1] - Conversely, black, mineral, and energy price indices continue to decline, highlighting persistent issues of insufficient effective demand in certain industries [1] - Experts suggest that to solidify economic recovery, the government should increase public investment in infrastructure and services to boost market demand and enterprise orders [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The correlation between regional economic conditions and bank valuations is increasing, with banks focusing on serving the local real economy [5] - Shandong's strategic position is highlighted by national-level initiatives such as the new and old kinetic energy conversion pilot zone, driving strong infrastructure and industrial momentum [5] - The dual task of upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors in Shandong is expected to sustain strong financial demand, with projected credit growth of 8%-11% in 2025 [5] - The regional risk situation is manageable, with city investment risks concentrated in specific counties and a significant improvement in the credit environment [5] - Recommended focus on quality banks within the province, such as Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank, which are maintaining high credit growth and improving market share [5] Summary by Sections Economic Dynamics - The "Seven Networks" plan establishes long-term infrastructure momentum, driving traditional and new infrastructure financial demand [5][18] - Shandong's economic structure is more traditional compared to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with a strong demand for green finance and technological upgrades [5][30] - The province's credit growth is expected to remain stable, with a 9.7% growth rate in Q1 2025, second only to Sichuan and Jiangsu among major provinces [5][15] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure loan growth in Shandong is projected to surpass that of Sichuan and Jiangsu by 2024, with significant investment targets set for 2025 [23][26] - The government aims for 3,900 key projects to be operational by 2025, exceeding the 2,600 projects planned for 2024 [26] Industry Transformation - Shandong is the only national-level pilot zone for new and old kinetic energy conversion, fostering both traditional upgrades and emerging economic demands [30][32] - The province's industrial structure is gradually optimizing, with traditional industries still dominant but new sectors gaining traction [5][30] Regional Banking Landscape - Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank are highlighted for their robust credit growth and improving market share, with a focus on the manufacturing and retail sectors [6][11] - The asset quality of regional banks is stable, with a decreasing trend in non-performing loans [6][11]

房地产行业跟踪周报 新房成交面积环比改善，二手房成交同比持续 正增 增持（维持） 2025 年 06 月 03 日 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024/6/3 2024/10/2 2025/1/31 2025/6/1 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《LPR 下调 10 基点，持续推进城市更 新》 2025-05-26 《"三问物业行业"系列报告之三—— 不谋长远者，无以图当下》 2025-05-23 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 | 图 | 1： | 全国 | 36 城商品住宅成交面积及同环比 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 4 | 座一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（北京、上海、广州、深圳） 6 | | 图 | 3： | 5 | 座新一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（杭州、武汉、成都、青岛、苏州） 6 | | 图 | 4： | 6 | 座二线城市新房成交面积及同环 ...