研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 39 元至 2245 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 17 元至 2240 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 6557 手至 44.3 万手，空头 持仓增加 14197 手至 61.3 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震荡偏 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.1%，环比-0.3%。海外甲醇开工率 59.4%，环比+1.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 144.03 万吨，较上一期数据减少 9.69 吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 8.44 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.25 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 45.09 万吨，较上期微增 0.32 万吨，环比增 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [3] - Egg: On - look [3] Group 2: Core Views - For the corn market, in the medium term, it is a multi - empty intertwined situation. In the long term, it maintains the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost. For the pig market, in the short - term, it is driven by supply - demand growth; in the medium - term, supply pressure varies by month; in the long - term, supply pressure is related to sow inventory. For the egg market, in the short - term, there is a short - term upward expectation but a supply - demand pressure in February; in the medium - term, egg supply pressure is not fully released; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Performance**: The night session of the corn futures oscillated and consolidated on the previous day, and the main contract 2603 rose 0.44% to 2,294 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast and North China increased slightly; port prices were stable; the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,655 to 44,417 lots; the transaction rates of corn sales, purchase, and two - way trading by CGS were 72%, 55%, and 82% respectively [1] - **Market Logic**: In the medium term, the market is multi - empty intertwined, and in the long term, it is based on substitution + planting cost pricing [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a wide - range interval trading idea. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 2,300, and the short - term support is at 2,270 - 2,280; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 2,290, and the short - term support is at 2,270 - 2,275 [1] Pig - **Market Performance**: The pig futures rose first and then fell on the previous day, and the main 2603 contract rose 0.42% to 11,950 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The national average pig price decreased slightly; sow inventory fell below 40 million heads in October 2025; the number of newborn piglets decreased in October and November 2025; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the price difference between fat and standard pigs was flat; the number of pig futures warehouse receipts was unchanged at 855 lots [1][3] - **Market Logic**: In the short - term, supply - demand growth creates a pressure - support situation; in the medium - term, supply pressure varies by month; in the long - term, supply pressure is related to sow inventory [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain an interval trading idea. For different contracts, different pressure and support levels are provided [3] Egg - **Market Performance**: The near - month contracts of egg futures rose significantly on the previous day, and the main 2603 contract rose 2.23% to 3,066 yuan/500KG [3] - **Important Information**: The national egg price continued to rise; inventory was stable with a slight decrease; the price of culled chickens increased; the estimated number of laying hens in January was 13.34 billion; the number of egg futures warehouse receipts was 0 lots [3] - **Market Logic**: In the short - term, there is an upward expectation, but there is a supply - demand pressure in February; in the medium - term, egg supply pressure is not fully released; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts after a rise. Focus on the first - quarter culling and molting of chickens [3]

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn futures for March reached a peak of 2300 CNY/ton, but the overall trend remains weak [4] - On January 12, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation's Jilin branch auctioned nearly 30,000 tons of corn, all sold at a premium. However, on January 15, only 20% of the 16,000 tons auctioned were sold, indicating a significant drop in transaction rate [4] - The Jilin branch plans to auction 71,000 tons on January 16, suggesting that market sentiment is still waiting to be released ahead of the Spring Festival [4] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The U.S. biofuel policy has released positive signals, leading to a surge in U.S. soybean oil prices, which in turn boosted soybean prices. However, the supply side of U.S. soybeans is unlikely to provide new positive drivers, shifting focus to demand changes and South American production [19] - As of January 14, 93.9% of Argentina's soybean planting is complete, with a quality rate of 61%, a decrease of 4 percentage points week-on-week. The Buenos Aires province's early soybeans are entering a critical growth stage, requiring soil moisture to maintain yield potential [19] - Recent active trading in imported soybeans and forward soybean meal contracts reflects increased replenishment willingness due to falling meal prices, indicating a structural tightness in the market despite overall ample supply [19] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas continues to rise, with the average price in Hebei's Guantao at approximately 3.33 CNY/jin, an increase of 0.09 CNY/jin from the previous day [21] - The strong spot price trend is driving near-month contracts higher, but uncertainties remain around the market dynamics before and after the Spring Festival [21] - The expected decline in stock levels is projected to continue into Q1 2026, with an anticipated drop to approximately 1.299 billion birds by April 2026 [21] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 12.74 CNY/kg, with stable spot performance and near-month contracts recovering from previous discounts [23] - Data indicates a 0.36% month-on-month increase in breeding stock, while fattening stock decreased by 5.2% [23] - Market sentiment is improving as spot prices rise, with some optimistic producers showing reluctance to sell, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [23]

2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5870，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.84%；硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5610，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.41%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 | | | | | 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度 5000 亿 | | | | | 元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用 | | | | | 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1187.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.75%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1745.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.37%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1180.0， 环比日盘收盘下跌 0.63%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1735.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.57%。 【重要资讯】 1、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | | 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度 5000 亿 元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一定空间。 2、本周，Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 88.5%，环比增 3.1%。 原煤日均产量 197 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily - Report Date: January 16, 2026 - Report Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Methanol futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and range-bound in the medium term, with inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream开工 being the three key variables [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated and declined, and slightly rebounded at the end of the session. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index performed better. The 5 - minute - level rebound is not over, and there may be an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying [8]. - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the operation should be mainly long [10]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough and can be treated as a volatile market recently [12]. - Glass has weakened with consecutive negative daily - level lines, and the short - term thinking has turned to a volatile and bearish one [16]. - Paper pulp has entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily declining. It should be treated as volatile and bearish [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Methanol Market 3.1.1 Reasons for Price Decline - Demand is in the off - season, and some downstream MTO devices plan to stop or reduce production due to compressed profits, resulting in weak procurement willingness [3]. - High inventory suppresses prices, with port inventory reaching about 153.72 tons in early January and large shipment pressure on inland factories [3]. - There is a callback in capital sentiment, as the chemical sector has collectively corrected after a rise, and capital has taken profits, intensifying short - term fluctuations [3]. 3.1.2 Future Trend Judgment - Short - term (1 - 2 weeks): There is support at 2250 - 2260 yuan/ton (MA10 and the previous intensive trading area) and resistance at 2320 yuan/ton (the upper Bollinger Band). If the port inventory reduction accelerates, the price may rebound due to a significant reduction in Iranian imports in January (expected to drop from 135 tons to 78 tons) and stable coal prices [4]. 3.1.3 Trading Strategy - The strategy is to try to go long on dips, operate with a light position, and take profits in batches [6]. 3.2 Other Market Technical Analysis 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated and declined, and slightly rebounded at the end. The 5 - minute - level rebound is not over, and there may be an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. It should be treated as a volatile market with high - selling and low - buying [8]. 3.2.2 Gold - Gold reached a new high after a volatile adjustment, and the operation should be mainly long [10]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough and can be treated as a volatile market recently [12]. 3.2.4 Glass - Technically, the daily - level lines have been negative consecutively, and the short - term thinking has turned to a volatile and bearish one. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and the inventory has also been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [16][17]. 3.2.5 Paper Pulp - Paper pulp has entered a new stage of mainly volatile and secondarily declining. From a fundamental perspective, recent changes include the halt of the further rise of broad - leaf pulp (maintaining around 4700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and the large - scale registration of pulp warehouse receipts. It should be treated as volatile and bearish [22].

Market Overview - On January 14, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed lower, with a general lack of trading atmosphere in the spot market and weak spot basis [1] - The trading range for January cargo was around 5030-5120, with a basis of 69-70 [1] - The main spot basis was at 05-70 [1] Profitability - As of January 14, the PTA spot processing fee was approximately 327 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 were 335 yuan/ton and 338 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 8, PTA operating rate was at 78.2% [1] - Demand: As of January 8, polyester operating rate remained stable at around 90.8% [1] - On January 14, the price of polyester filament increased by 50-100, but overall sales were weak [1] - Recent macroeconomic improvements and geopolitical factors have led to a rise in raw material prices, with low factory inventory levels reducing pressure on factories [1] - If macroeconomic conditions and raw material prices remain strong, polyester filament prices may rise [1] Market Outlook - This week saw significant changes in PTA facilities, with some restarting and others scheduled for maintenance, leading to a decrease in overall operating rates [1] - Downstream polyester production is expected to decrease seasonally before and after the Spring Festival, with high supply and weak demand resulting in a new round of production cuts for polyester filament starting January 14, with major manufacturers reducing output by 15% for a quarter [1] - Traders' willingness to hold inventory has weakened, leading to a continued decline in spot basis [1] - The supply-demand outlook for PTA in January is gradually weakening, with limited accumulation expected, but larger accumulation pressure anticipated in February [1] - The strategy for PTA is to expect fluctuations between 5000-5300 in the short term, while maintaining a low long position in the medium term [1]

Morning session notice 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三铁矿收涨。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、月 14 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.26%，收于228 | | | | | 2元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上涨。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2168元/吨，较前一日涨1元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2255元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日涨2元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价 | | | | | 2280-2290元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2430元/吨，较前一日涨持平 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月14日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增614手，共计3 | | | | | 8762手。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 4、1月14日，中储粮公司举行玉米竞价销售交易，计划销售玉米量6.6万吨，成交 | ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5299 元/吨，日涨幅 0.88%，夜盘收 5280 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5304 元/吨，日涨幅 0.72%，夜盘收 5291 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1 广西白糖现货成交价为 5320 元/吨，上涨 16 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 | | | | | 5320~5380 元/吨，部分上调 10~20 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5190~5240 元/吨，上 | | | | | 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5900 ...