PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2025/11/26 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 作者：刘思琪 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 从业资格证号：F3083559 交易咨询证号：Z0016260 邮箱：liusiqi@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 | PTA | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | PTA年底前主流供应商检修偏高，需求季节性走弱但聚酯有支撑，11-12月平衡偏紧，短期供需不 | | | | 差，基差企稳，短期关注俄乌和平进展，回调后低买，逢低做扩加工费。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 近端面临季节性累库压力，关注5-9月差逢低正套机会。 | | 现货 | 谨慎偏强 | PTA现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差偏强。现货在01-35附近商谈，价格商谈区间在4600~4640附 | | | | 近。 | | 成本 | 中性 | PX随着PTA检修增加，近端略转松，预期和格局不差，歧化和重整装置有检修，PXN估值不低。 | | 装置变动 | 谨慎偏强 | PTA11-12月计划检修不低，英力士、能投、独山1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday; the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices weakened. New cotton warehousing reached its peak, and commercial inventories entered a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remained dull, and the operating rate did not show an obvious decline. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a sideways movement [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 284,007 lots, and the open interest was 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for January, 13,595 yuan/ton for May, and 13,715 yuan/ton for September. The settlement price of the ICE December contract was 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract was 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract was 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new 31 - grade machine - picked cotton with double 29 and less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that the downstream sales had slowed down recently, the finished product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Trading Strategy - Close the previously held call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options on the 05 contract with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating [1] - Red dates: Oscillating with a weak bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating (Natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, Synthetic rubber) [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Domestic sugar market fundamentals have limited news, with new sugar gradually entering the market and general trading atmosphere. Technically, the short - term trend has improved, but there is pressure near the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands. Consider short - term trading strategies such as holding or partially closing SR601 short positions and buying put options [1]. - Red dates: After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend of red date futures prices weakens. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak. Continue to be bearish and adopt a strategy of short - selling on upward rebounds [3]. - Rubber: Natural rubber has long - short factors intertwined. Supply - side support exists as domestic production areas enter the off - season and Southeast Asian weather is unstable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental contradictions with stable raw material supply and general downstream demand. Pay attention to price ranges for different rubber varieties [4]. Group 3: Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - SR601 contract closed at 5403 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.45% daily, and 5411 yuan/ton at night. SR605 contract closed at 5325 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.30% daily, and 5335 yuan/ton at night [1]. Important Information - The external market was closed yesterday with no quote. - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi rose by 9 yuan/ton to 5397 yuan/ton. New sugar in Guangxi was priced at 5580 - 5650 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's sugar prices were also given. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, 20 sugar mills have started crushing, 25 less than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 146,000 tons, 260,500 tons less than last year. - It is estimated that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, up 14.9% year - on - year, and sugar production will be 1.075 million tons, up 18.9% year - on - year. - As of November 23, 2025/26 in India's Maharashtra state, 154 sugar mills have started crushing, 34 more than the same period last year, with 15.177 million tons of cane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced. - StoneX predicts that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will be 620.5 million tons, and sugar production will be 41.5 million tons, up 3.3% from the 2025/26 season. - Yesterday, the number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 75, a decrease of 7618 from the previous day [1]. Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar was closed yesterday with no quote. - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar rose slightly. Technically, short - covering has improved the trend, and short - term pressure at the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands should be noted [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close SR601 short positions, close profitable call - selling options at 5600, close profitable bear - spread combinations, and consider buying put options [1]. Red Dates Market Review - CJ601 contract closed at 9150 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.11% daily. CJ605 contract closed at 9295 yuan/ton, up 0.05% daily [3]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample warehouses this week was 10,848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week, a 5.01% increase. - In the Hebei market, the price of extra - grade red dates was 9.83 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day. - In the Guangzhou Ruyifang market, 4 trucks of red dates arrived, a decrease of 3 trucks from the previous day [3]. Market Logic - The red - date acquisition in some areas of Xinjiang is completed, and the acquisition in other main producing areas is in the second half. The price in the Hebei sales area has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend weakens, but there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak [3]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close CJ601 short positions and short - sell CJ605 on rebounds [3]. Rubber Market Review - RU2601 contract closed at 15,280 yuan/ton on November 27, up 0.56% daily. NR2601 contract closed at 12,205 yuan/ton, up 0.33% daily. BR2601 contract closed at 10,400 yuan/ton, up 0.39% daily [4]. Important Information - The average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex rubber was 14,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1835 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton. - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons from the previous period, a 3.60% increase. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points from the previous week and 13.64 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from the previous week and 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. - In October 2025, Thailand's natural - rubber exports to the world were 409,700 tons, a 15.71% increase from the previous month and an 8.88% increase from the same period last year. - The delivery price in the central Shandong region was 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton. - This week, the mainstream sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis polybutadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The domestic production area has entered the off - season, and the raw - material price is stable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. - Synthetic rubber: The fundamental contradictions of BR futures prices are limited, with sufficient raw - material supply and cautious downstream buying. The cost support is neutral, and the price is unlikely to rise significantly [4]. Trading Strategy - The short - term activity range of the RU main contract is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract is 12,100 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the BR is 10,200 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On November 27, the BR12 main contract price was 10,400, up 40 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week; the持仓量 was 58,829, down 4,201 from the previous day and 9,418 from the previous week; the trading volume was 82,482, down 46,614 from the previous day and 84,873 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 15,450, up 70 from the previous day and 3,420 from the previous week; the long - short ratio was 19.04, down 1 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [4] - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The 12 - 01 spread was - 52, up 5 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week; the 01 - 02 spread was 5, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; the RU - BR spread was 4,880, up 45 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was 1,805, unchanged from the previous day [4] - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 10,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,325, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,600, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 856, up 26 from the previous day and 103 from the previous week; the import profit was - 707, up 5 from the previous day and 205 from the previous week; the export profit was 1,637, down 5 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7,200, down 25 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 7,000, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the Yangtze ex - factory price was 7,100, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; CFR China was 820, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A, the carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,814, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the import profit was 288, down 22 from the previous day and 420 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,071, up 232 from the previous day and down 978 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,363, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit was - 302, unchanged from the previous day and up 85 from the previous week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, while the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 284,007 lots and an open interest of 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for the January contract, 13,595 yuan/ton for the May contract, and 13,715 yuan/ton for the September contract. The ICE December contract settled at 62.77 cents, up 34 points; the March contract at 64.57 cents, up 34 points; and the May contract at 65.75 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 1.499 billion square meters of cotton products, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 9.789 billion square meters of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. The import value of textiles and clothing was $9.53 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and prices rose, while the spot market remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that recent downstream sales have slowed down, finished product inventories have increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market has intensified [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.57 cents, up 0.53%. The driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Daily Changes (Wednesday)**: In the civil gas market, prices in East China remained at 4310 (+0), in Shandong increased to 4460 (+30), and in South China stayed at 4330 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 29 (-81) and a 01 - 02 month - spread of 87 (+10). FEI was 516.6 (+12.1) and CP was 492.16 (+5.66) dollars per ton [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG futures price declined. The basis was - 43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 month - spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices decreased. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil gas price difference narrowed. There were 4561 (-54) warehouse receipts. Off - exchange paper prices dropped, the month - spread strengthened, and the North Asian - North American oil - gas price ratio changed slightly. The domestic - foreign PG - CP was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The East China arrival, North American, and AFEI offshore discounts remained flat, while the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to - 55 (+11). The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but was still poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week [1]. 2. Core View - The domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but there is an expected high arrival volume in December. The Middle East supply is tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil price conditions need to be monitored [1].

格隆汇11月27日｜钯期货主力合约涨幅缩窄至4.25%，现报380.50元/克，此前一度涨超12%。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures for trading on November 27, 2025, with the initial listing benchmark prices set at 405 CNY per gram for platinum and 365 CNY per gram for palladium [3][14]. Margin Requirements - The margin requirement for trading one lot of platinum futures is calculated to be 68,850 CNY, based on the benchmark price and a margin rate of 17% [7]. - The margin requirement for trading one lot of palladium futures is calculated to be 62,050 CNY, also based on the benchmark price and a margin rate of 17% [7][14]. - The margin requirements for platinum and palladium futures are relatively high compared to other agricultural and some chemical products [7]. Comparison with Other Futures - A detailed comparison of margin requirements for various futures contracts shows that the required capital for trading platinum and palladium is on the higher end, indicating a more significant investment needed for these metals compared to other commodities [8][9][10].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily of November 26, 2024, focusing on the cotton and cotton yarn markets [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13625 with a decrease of 20, and its trading volume was 172,621 with a decrease of 65278 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as the CCIndex3128B at 14882 yuan/ton with an increase of 89, and the CY IndexC32S at 20660 yuan/ton with no change [2] Spread Market - Different spreads, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, are given. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton is 40 with a decrease of 25, and the CY01 - CF01 spread is 6445 with an increase of 25 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - The average temperature and rainfall in the main US cotton - producing areas have increased. As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 79%, slower than last year and the five - year average. The 2025/26 cotton prices and transaction basis in Xinjiang are also reported [4] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be lower than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate within a limited range [5] Trading Strategies - For the single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate within a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will also show a fluctuating trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The night - session of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a fluctuating trend. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders. The inventory of pure cotton yarn continued to rise. The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a weakening trend. The demand for all - cotton clothing grey cloth was weak [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - The data of several cotton options contracts, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators, are provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract closed at 183.00 with a 71.0% increase, and its implied volatility was 6.7% [11] Volatility and Strategy - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of different options contracts are reported. The PCR values of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for options trading [11][12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the spreads between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton basis at different months, spreads between cotton and cotton yarn, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [14][18][23][25]