Core Insights - Global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.8 billion in May, ending a five-month streak of inflows, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [1][3] - The total assets under management (AUM) for global gold ETFs decreased by 1% to $374 billion, with holdings dropping by 19 tons to 3,541 tons [1][2] Group 1: Regional Performance - North America led the outflows with a net withdrawal of $1.54 billion, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment due to a temporary easing of trade tensions and a strong stock market rebound, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [2][3] - Asia saw a net outflow of $489.4 million, primarily driven by Chinese investors, as the easing of trade tensions and stock market recovery diminished the need for gold [4] - Europe was the only region to record inflows, with a modest increase of $225 million, largely attributed to stable inflows from France amid concerns over economic growth and political instability [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in May, coupled with cautious remarks regarding inflation and labor market risks, has led to expectations of sustained high rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Despite the outflows, global gold ETF inflows for 2025 remain positive at $30 billion, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons since the beginning of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical crisis has put the traditional safe-haven status of the US dollar and US Treasuries to the test, with increasing skepticism about their reliability as safe assets [1][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Israel's airstrikes on Iranian targets, US Treasuries showed only a slight increase, and the dollar initially dropped instead of rising as expected for safe-haven assets [2][12]. - The volatility in the market was evident as the VIX index surged, global stock markets faced pressure, and oil prices spiked, while gold, another safe-haven asset, saw a strong rebound [1][6]. Group 2: Structural Issues with the Dollar - The dollar index has fallen approximately 8% this year, reflecting a loss of investor confidence in the US economic growth outlook due to various structural issues, including trade policies and fiscal deficits [13][14]. - Analysts suggest that the dollar's safe-haven status is being diluted by the US government's trade policies and challenges to the rule of law, leading to questions about its reliability [13][14]. Group 3: Shift in Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in capital flows away from US Treasuries towards hard assets like oil and metals, indicating a loss of confidence in sovereign debt as a risk-free haven [12][14]. - The current geopolitical tensions have led to a typical cross-asset reaction, with energy and gold prices rising sharply, while bond demand remains low [11][12].

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) report highlights the rising international status of gold, which is projected to account for approximately 20% of global official reserves by the end of 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% share and becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1][4][7] Group 1: Global Central Bank Gold Holdings - Global central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, doubling the average annual level from the 2010s, with current holdings nearing post-World War II highs [2][5] - By the end of 2024, global central bank gold holdings are expected to reach approximately 36,000 tons, close to the historical peak of 38,000 tons set in 1965 [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Demand - The demand for gold as a reserve asset has surged since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility, with gold prices rising approximately 62% over the past year [4][11] - About two-thirds of central banks invest in gold for asset diversification, while around 40% do so to hedge against geopolitical risks [4][11] Group 3: Trends in Dollar and Gold Reserves - The dollar's share of global reserve assets has been declining, projected to fall by 10 percentage points over the past decade, with a 2 percentage point drop expected in 2024 alone [7][10] - The trend of de-dollarization among global central banks is becoming increasingly evident, as they seek to reduce reliance on the US financial system [7][10] Group 4: Future Projections for Gold Prices - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could surge by 80% over the next four years, potentially reaching $6,000 per ounce, driven by significant capital inflows into gold [14][15] - Wells Fargo anticipates that gold prices will rise to $3,600 per ounce by the end of 2026, influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties [14][15] Group 5: Central Bank Strategies - Countries like Poland, Turkey, India, and China are leading the gold purchasing trend, with Poland's central bank recently increasing its gold reserves to 509 tons, surpassing the ECB's holdings [6][5] - Emerging economies in Africa are also beginning to accumulate gold to mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions on their currencies [6][11]

若后市市场上破3399.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3409.00-3419.00美元/盎司。（止损为5.000美元/盎 司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.060-36.400，操作上可在这个区间内 高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破36.060美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.700-35.300美元/ 盎司。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3372.00-3399.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛 低吸。 若后市市场下破3372.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3362.00-3352.00美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.400美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及36.800-37.200美元/盎 司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 周四因市场投资者对美联储降息的预期升温，现货黄金市场再收阳线，昨日市场最高至3398.97美元/盎司，最终 收盘于3386.66美元/盎司。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注 ...

张尧浠：地缘局势升温降息押注回暖、金价走强保持看涨 上交易日周四(6月12日)：国际黄金继续反弹收涨，延续周三的支撑买盘和重回短期均线上方后的跟进买盘推动，同时也暗示多头力量进一步增强，短期 将继续等待上行触及3435美元及3500美元目标不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3356.10美元/盎司，先行走强，并持稳于3368美元上方持续盘整，虽在欧盘开盘一度坠落触及日内低点3338.58美元，但又迅 速触底回升，并延续到美盘开盘，进一步拉升录得日内高点3398.86美元，最后遇阻回撤，震荡运行，最终收于3386.58美元，日振幅60.28美元，收涨30.48 美元，涨幅0.91%。 影响上，美元指数再度回落收跌，对金价产生利好，其美国就业、通胀双降温，支撑美联储年内降息两次。特朗普也再度建议美联储降息200个基点，以 色列或在数日内袭击伊朗，美国23日起对钢制家电加征关税等等利好因素，推动金价再度反弹收涨。 展望今日周五(6月13日)：国际黄金先行走低回撤，不过下方有众多均线支撑，市场也缺乏持续的强劲利空压力，故此，早间的回撤，仍是在为多头制造 入场机会，关注进场支撑位置。 另外，美元指数，昨日较大幅回落收跌 ...

当地时间周四，美国财政部拍卖220亿美元30年期国债，整体来说，拍卖亮眼，尤其是海外买家需求强劲。 本次30年期美债拍卖的得标利率为4.844%，为今年1月以来最高，此前5月8日为4.819%。这次拍卖的中标利率比预发行利率4.859%低了1.5个基点，没有产生 体现需求疲软的尾部利差，而上个月是产生了2.6个基点的尾部利差，这次拍卖的中标利率与预发行利率之差，也是去年11月以来的第二大。 市场最关注的是拍卖内部数据： 间接认购比例为65.2%，创1月以来最高，上个月为58.9%。间接竞标者通常由外国央行等机构通过一级交易商或经纪商参与竞标，是衡量海外需 求的指标。 本周的美债拍卖，以一场表现平平的3年期美债拍卖开场，紧随其后的是昨天表现稳健的10年期美债拍卖，周四的30年期长期美债拍卖是本周最后一场、也 是最具挑战性的美债拍卖。最终的拍卖结果缓解了市场担忧。 30年期美债拍卖结果出炉后，市场对此反应积极，10年期美债收益率一度跌至4.34%的日内低点，低于上周强劲非农就业报告发布前的水平，尽管随后有所 回升。 不过分析指出，尽管这场拍卖表现出色，美国依然面临大量长期国债供应的压力——因为特朗普推动的"大而美 ...

Group 1 - The recent 30-year Treasury bond auction by the U.S. Treasury raised $22 billion, with a yield of 4.844%, which is approximately 1.5 basis points lower than the market level before the auction, indicating strong demand despite slightly lower foreign participation [1] - Following the auction, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped to 4.839%, down from above 4.9% at the market open, suggesting that successful auctions typically lead to higher bond prices and lower market rates [1] - Foreign investors purchased 65.2% of the 30-year bonds, slightly below the average of 67.4% from the last six similar auctions, while the 10-year bond auction saw a foreign participation rate of 70.6%, lower than the average of 73.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the measurement of foreign demand may have technical biases, as "indirect bidders" are often seen as representatives of foreign investors, but some foreign buyers place orders directly through U.S. banks, which are not included in the "indirect bidder" statistics [2] - A more detailed report on investor classification will be released on June 24, which will provide a clearer picture of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - Despite the subdued foreign demand, "direct bidders," primarily domestic institutions, showed strong interest, supporting the recent 10-year and 30-year bond auctions amid increasing U.S. fiscal deficits and debt supply [2]

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued to decline after the auction, currently down by 6.5 basis points, reported at 4.844% [1]

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 6.5 basis points, reaching 4.844% [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - Gold reached a weekly high of $3377.55 per ounce, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, which fell to a near one-week low of 98.42 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for gold, with key resistance levels identified at $3390-$3400 and support at $3355 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a pullback after a recent surge, with Brent crude falling to $69.40 per barrel and WTI to $67.84, despite both having recorded over 4% gains previously [6] - The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. oil inventories, with ongoing concerns about potential supply disruptions [6][7] - Short-term forecasts suggest a bullish outlook for oil prices, with key resistance levels at $68.5-$69.0 and support at $66.5-$66.0 [7]