Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Hua'an Securities' View**: Amid the market style shift, there are still short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market. Although the bond market has faced a style shift due to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets, investors can still find long - trading opportunities such as taking advantage of the steeper curve and wider spreads, paying attention to the increased willingness of allocation investors to buy bonds when funds are loose, considering the possible short - covering of certain 30 - year Treasury bonds, and seizing the entry opportunity after the bond market correction. [2] - **Seller's View**: Only 30% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market, over 60% hold a neutral attitude, and the sentiment remains the same as last week. [3] - **Buyer's View**: The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral, and the sentiment index has declined. Over 80% of buyers hold a neutral view. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market - **Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds**: The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.21, up from last week, and the unweighted index is 0.26, unchanged from last week. 32% of institutions are bullish, 61% are neutral, and 6% are bearish. [11] - **Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds**: The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, down 0.07 from last week, and the unweighted index is 0.06, down 0.097 from last week. 13% of institutions are bullish, 81% are neutral, and 6% are bearish. [12] - **Credit Bonds**: The market focuses on the "stock - bond seesaw" and "stable wealth - management scale". Due to the continuous rise of the equity market suppressing the bond market, it is recommended to shorten the duration. The wealth - management scale is stable, and the short - term liability pressure is controllable. [16] - **Convertible Bonds**: Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week. 77% of institutions are bullish, and 23% are neutral. [19] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking - **Futures Trading**: As of August 15, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL Treasury bond futures contracts decreased compared to last Friday, the trading volume increased, the open interest decreased, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased. [24][25] - **Cash Bond Trading**: On August 15, the turnover rates of 30Y Treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds all increased compared to last week. [32] - **Basis Trading**: Except for the TS contract, the basis of other main contracts narrowed. The net basis of TS/T/TL main contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts generally increased. [44][45][47] - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of main contracts generally widened, and the inter - variety spreads showed mixed trends. [58][59]

◼ 7 月基本面数据陆续公布，为何债市显现出"脱敏"性质？ ◼ A：本周（2025.8.11-2025.8.15），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.691%上行 5.4bp 至 1.745%。 周度复盘：周一（8.11），早盘受周末公布的 7 月物价数据低于预期影 响，利率有所下行。随后股市和碳酸锂商品期货大涨，利率转为上行， 全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 2.65bp。周二（8.12），早盘受中美 正式延长 90 天的关税暂停期消息影响，利率出现上行，随后股市出现 短暂下行，股债跷跷板效应下利率小幅下行。临近尾盘财政部公布贴息 政策，意在刺激消费，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 1bp。周三 （8.13），上证指数突破去年 10 月 8 日高点，但受午后买断式逆回购询 价降息消息影响，债市仍然维持一定韧性。尾盘 7 月金融数据公布，其 中 7 月信贷新增值为-500 亿元，同比少增 3100 亿元，结构上仅有票据 融资提供冲量作用。虽然季初为传统的信贷小月，但公布的数据仍显著 低于预期，但债市对于该信息显示出"脱敏"的特点，利率并未大幅下 行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the stock market has been strong, surpassing 3700 points, while the bond market has shown increased volatility, indicating a clear stock-bond seesaw effect. Investors are shifting their focus towards the stock market, benefiting certain "fixed income + equity" products, which have shown impressive returns due to the stock market's rise [2][7]. Group 1: Product Performance - The "Yangguang Jin Zengli Le Xiang Ri Kai 1 Hao" product has recently achieved an annualized return of 6.39% over the past month, benefiting from the stock market's upward trend [7]. - The product's equity investment ratio was reported at 4.65% as of June 30, indicating a low exposure to equities, which helps in controlling risk [7][25]. - In the first half of the year, this product outperformed many of its peers, with an average net value growth rate of 1.43%, translating to an annualized return of 2.86% [9][23]. Group 2: Risk and Return Metrics - The product received a score of 73 for performance and 90 for risk control, ranking 29th out of 968 similar products, indicating strong risk management and performance metrics [9][11]. - The product's maximum drawdown since inception was only 0.25%, showcasing its risk control capabilities [17]. - The product's Sharpe ratio stands at 6.40, reflecting a favorable risk-return profile [17]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The product primarily invests in fixed income assets (80%-100%), with a maximum equity investment of 20%, and a focus on low-volatility preferred stocks and dividend strategies [13][25]. - The use of derivatives, such as government bond futures, is employed for risk hedging, indicating a proactive approach to managing market risks [21][22]. - The product is designed for investors with a moderate risk tolerance seeking slightly higher returns, with a minimum holding period of 30 days [25].

曾经备受债市追捧的30年期国债期货，随着近期权益市场持续强势走高，热度呈现出持续下降趋势。 8月18日，30年期国债期货主力合约大跌超1%，创今年4月初以来新低。10年期国债期货、5年期国债期货、2年期 国债期货等均出现不同程度下跌。 对于当前的债市，业内认为，"反内卷"主线下的股市强势表现压制债市情绪，叠加机构赎回等行为，构成债市短 期风险点。不过，债市仍存在支撑因素，趋势性逆转的概率还不高。 30年期国债期货跌超1% 近期，股债"跷跷板"效应愈发明显。在基本面和资金面并无明显变化的情况下，债市近期出现接连调整走势，市 场关注焦点转向权益市场与商品市场。 8月18日，30年期、10年期、5年期、2年期国债期货均出现下跌。其中30年期国债期货的跌幅超过1%。截至收 盘，30年期国债期货主力合约跌1.33%，10年期国债期货主力合约跌0.29%，5年期国债期货主力合约跌0.21%，2年 期国债期货主力合约跌0.04%。 银行间主要利率债收益率快速上行。截至发稿，30年期国债活跃券的到期收益率上行4.35个基点，报2.0375%，重 返2%关口；10年期国债活跃券的到期收益率上行3个基点，报1.775%；5年期国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond index led the market, while the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined this period, with negative stage returns. Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [1]. - The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale [1]. - The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low, with concentrated issuance terms [1]. - In the secondary market, convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp [1]. - In the past two weeks, the cancellation of bond issuance amounted to 1.745 billion yuan, and the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on the VAT policy for the interest income of bonds such as treasury bonds [1]. - It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Bond Index Market Conditions**: The convertible bond index led the market. The Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index had significant gains in the past two weeks, outperforming most pure - bond indexes. Affected by the bond market fluctuations and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the sci - tech innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index declined. The China Securities Financial Bond Index and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index had the largest declines, while the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond Index had positive stage returns due to their short durations [6]. - **Bond ETF Market Conditions**: Convertible bond - related ETFs led the gains, sci - tech innovation bond ETFs/benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative current - period yields, and short - term financing ETFs had positive current - period returns [8]. - **Bond ETF Unit Net Value**: The unit net value performance of bond ETFs was differentiated. Convertible bond - related ETFs showed an upward - fluctuating trend in 2025, breaking through 13 yuan in the past two weeks. Sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs had a downward - fluctuating net value after listing, with all net values falling below 100 yuan as of August 15, 2025. The short - term financing ETFs had a stable and rising unit net value, exceeding 112.2 yuan as of August 15, 2025 [12]. - **Bond ETF Fund Flows**: Convertible bond - related ETFs/short - term financing ETFs had continuous net inflows of funds, and local government bond - related ETFs were actively traded. The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) increased by a total of 7.759 billion yuan in the past two weeks. The short - term financing ETF (511360.SH) had a subscription scale of 5.802 billion yuan in the past two weeks [25]. Credit Bond ETF Overview The scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) exceeded 5 billion yuan, and the scale growth rate of sci - tech innovation bond - related ETFs slowed down. The benchmark market - making credit bond ETF still ranked first in terms of scale. The annualized yields of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) were 26.57% and 19.25% respectively. Among pure - bond ETFs, Credit Bond ETF Dacheng (159395.SZ) had the highest annualized yield of 2.25%. Nine sci - tech innovation bond - related ETF products had negative annualized yields after listing in July [30]. Primary Market - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds**: The primary - market issuance of bond index sample bonds was differentiated. Short - term financing had the largest issuance volume and scale, convertible bond - related indexes had the smallest issuance scale, and the coupon rates of bond index sample bonds were relatively low. The issuance terms of bond index sample bonds were concentrated, with the weighted issuance term of China Securities Short - Term Financing sample bonds being 0.61 years and that of the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds being 9.18 years [33]. - **Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds Since This Year**: The issuance of sci - tech innovation bond - related indexes and the Shanghai 10 - year Local Government Bond Index sample bonds accelerated in June and July. In early August, the issuance rates of most sample bonds increased, and the issuance terms of sci - tech innovation bond - related index sample bonds shortened [35]. Secondary Market - **Trading of Important Bond Index Component Bonds**: Convertible bond - related index component bonds had the largest trading volume, and the component bonds of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index were traded at a discount. The trading volumes of the 0 - 4 - year Local Government Bond, Shanghai 5 - year Local Government Bond, and 5 - year Local Government Bond were less than 200 million yuan, with poor liquidity [40]. - **Spreads of Important Credit Bond Indexes**: The credit spreads of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index and the China Securities Short - Term Financing Index were relatively high but less than 40bp. The yields of the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index, China Securities Short - Term Financing Index, and Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index all increased in the past two weeks [43]. Credit Events and Market News - **Deferred/Cancelled Bond Issuance**: The cancelled issuance amount in the past two weeks was 1.745 billion yuan. Due to large market interest - rate fluctuations in the past two weeks, 15 bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a planned issuance amount of 1.745 billion yuan [48]. - **Market News**: Since August 8, 2025, the VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds (including those issued after August 8, 2025) has been restored. The interest income of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds issued before this date (including the part issued after August 8, 2025) will continue to be exempt from VAT until the bonds mature [50]. Investment Recommendations The sentiment in the bond market was weak. Although the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the fundamentals still favored the bond market. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a net withdrawal in the past two weeks, the capital market was slightly tight, and bond valuation yields increased. It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and China Securities Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [51].

曾经备受债市追捧的30年期国债期货，随着近期权益市场持续强势走高，热度呈现出持续下降趋势。 8月18日，30年期国债期货主力合约大跌超1%，创今年4月初以来新低。10年期国债期货、5年期国债期货、2年期 国债期货等均出现不同程度下跌。 对于当前的债市，业内认为，"反内卷"主线下的股市强势表现压制债市情绪，叠加机构赎回等行为，构成债市短 期风险点。不过，债市仍存在支撑因素，趋势性逆转的概率还不高。 30年期国债期货跌超1% 近期，股债"跷跷板"效应愈发明显。在基本面和资金面并无明显变化的情况下，债市近期出现接连调整走势，市 场关注焦点转向权益市场与商品市场。 8月18日，30年期、10年期、5年期、2年期国债期货均出现下跌。其中30年期国债期货的跌幅超过1%。截至收 盘，30年期国债期货主力合约跌1.33%，10年期国债期货主力合约跌0.29%，5年期国债期货主力合约跌0.21%，2年 期国债期货主力合约跌0.04%。 银行间主要利率债收益率快速上行。截至发稿，30年期国债活跃券的到期收益率上行4.35个基点，报2.0375%，重 返2%关口；10年期国债活跃券的到期收益率上行3个基点，报1.775%；5年期国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond futures, once favored in the bond market, are experiencing a decline in popularity as the equity market continues to perform strongly, leading to a bearish sentiment in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the 30-year government bond futures fell over 1%, marking a new low since early April this year. Other maturities, including 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bond futures, also saw varying degrees of decline [2][4]. - The 30-year government bond futures closed down 1.33%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year futures fell by 0.29%, 0.21%, and 0.04%, respectively [4]. - The yields on major interbank government bonds have risen sharply, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 4.35 basis points to 2.0375%, and the 10-year bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.775% [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Dynamics - The bond market is currently under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, which is suppressing bond market sentiment. Additionally, institutional redemptions are contributing to short-term risks in the bond market [2][4]. - The prevailing sentiment in the bond market is one of weakness, as it has shown a muted response to positive economic data while being more sensitive to negative influences from the equity and commodity markets [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to research from Everbright Securities, the banking system currently has ample liquidity, and despite upcoming tax periods and month-end factors, the average DR007 is expected to be the lowest of the year in late August, alleviating concerns over significant increases in bond yields [6]. - The bond market may either decouple from the equity market or continue to react to its movements. The likelihood of bond yields declining in the short term is greater than the chance of them rising [6]. Group 4: Redemption Risks - The ongoing adjustments in the bond market could trigger a wave of redemptions from bond funds, further increasing volatility. The research team at Huachuang Fixed Income suggests that while there may be minor redemption pressures, the overall risk remains manageable as long as yields stay below 1.9% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures to support the liquidity of government bonds in the secondary market, which could help stabilize the market amid these adjustments [8][9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the economic performance and outlook for the Chinese economy, focusing on consumption, investment, and market sentiment in 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **July Economic Performance**: In July, consumption growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, below expectations, indicating a significant deceleration in recovery momentum from the first half of the year. The "old-for-new" policy's effects are becoming apparent, with low restaurant consumption growth attributed to high temperatures [1][3]. - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment fell by 5.2% year-on-year in July, with real estate investment down 17%, infrastructure down 5%, and manufacturing down 0.2%. The slowdown is linked to price fluctuations, weather conditions, and external factors, with expectations for infrastructure investment to rebound in the second half of the year [1][3][4]. - **Economic Uncertainty**: The third quarter faces uncertainties, and if downward pressure persists, monetary and real estate policies may be intensified to stabilize the economy and market expectations [4]. - **Market Optimism**: Despite challenges, the market remains optimistic due to improved economic data, enhanced profit expectations from anti-involution policies, and increased risk appetite leading to significant inflows of margin trading funds [5][6]. - **Trading Activity**: Current trading activity in margin financing, retail, and quantitative trading is at historical highs, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the market [5][6]. - **Long-term Investment Appeal**: The stock market is expected to attract continued inflows due to the profit-making effect and the relative yield advantage of equity markets over other assets [7]. - **Corporate Profit Expectations**: Corporate profits are likely to improve in 2025, supported by stable economic growth and policy backing, with a gradual upward trend anticipated over the next quarter [8]. - **Industry Focus**: Short-term attention should be on industries like building materials and media, while mid-term focus should include consumer sectors and technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and military industries [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The strong inverse relationship between stock and bond markets has been noted, with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 between the CSI 300 index and 10-year government bond yields since July 1, indicating a shift in investor preference towards risk assets [10]. - **Market Style Characteristics**: Recent market characteristics show positive returns from beta and size factors, with notable performance in total asset gross margin and quarterly ROE among large-cap stocks [11]. - **Market Performance**: The overall market has shown a strong upward trend, with indices reaching new highs since September 2024, particularly in the ChiNext index [12][13]. - **Sector Performance**: The brokerage sector has led the market as a bullish indicator, with new energy sectors also contributing to index gains [14]. - **Market Sentiment and Fund Flows**: Market sentiment has improved with increased trading volumes, although there is a divergence in fund flows, with stock ETFs experiencing net outflows despite rising risk appetite [15]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on previously hot sectors like brokerages and potential opportunities in undervalued sectors during periods of increased risk appetite [16].

一度爆款频出的中证同业存单AAA指数7天持有期证券投资基金（下称"同业存单基金"），出现规模大幅下滑。截至8 月15日，全市场101只同业存单基金规模不足1300亿元，和逾3500亿元的募集规模相比缩水超60%。其中，有26只基金 是规模不足5000万元的迷你基金，占比超过1/4，徘徊在清盘边缘。 业内人士向券商中国记者表示，同业存单基金规模下降有两方面原因：一是缺乏投资业绩优势，二是近几年来市场环境 发生变化，债券行情兴起和权益资产走出低谷，市场资金对同业存单基金的关注度有所下降。 超1/4基金沦为迷你基金 8月15日，沪上一家中小型公募发布公告，其旗下同业存单基金连续30个工作日基金资产净值低于5000万元，如果连续50 个工作日出现该情形或基金份额持有人数量不满200人的，将根据约定进入基金清算程序并终止，无需召开基金份额持有 人大会审议。 此外，一只成立于2023年底的同业存单基金，截至2024年9月25日出现连续60个工作日基金资产净值低于5000万元情形， 基金公司随后召开基金份额持有人大会，提议持续运作该基金，但由于参与表决的基金份额小于在权益登记日基金总份 额的二分之一，该持有人大会未能召开。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the trading activity of 30-year Treasury futures, which were once highly favored in the bond market, due to a shift in investor sentiment towards equities and commodities [2][5][8] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, with the stock and commodity markets gaining strength while the bond market remains under pressure, leading to a reallocation of funds away from long-term bonds [3][4][5] - The overall bond market is experiencing a weak performance, particularly in long-term bonds, with the yield curve steepening and short-term yields outperforming long-term yields [4][7] Group 2 - The trading volume and open interest in long-term Treasury futures have been rising since the beginning of 2023, but the recent market dynamics have led to a decrease in their attractiveness as investors shift focus to commodities [5][6] - Institutional investors, including banks and insurance companies, are facing challenges in the current market environment, leading to a cautious approach towards increasing their positions in the bond market [7][8] - Future recovery in bond market sentiment is expected to take time, with potential signals being a decrease in risk appetite and an increase in interest rate cut expectations [8]