1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shortage at the raw material end continues, with limited cold material supplements, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons. The pressure at the raw material end will further reduce processing fees and impact downstream industries. - The processing profit of the smelting industry continues to deteriorate, with an initial risk of industry - wide losses. The scope of active production cuts overseas is expanding, and the market is focusing on domestic smelting trends. The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons. - The marginal growth of traditional demand is weakening, the new - energy demand is slowing down, while the demand from emerging industries is growing strongly. The marginal growth of global copper demand in 2025 is adjusted down to 700,000 - 800,000 metric tons. - Macro factors center around the weakening of the US dollar, and policies from various countries are expected to stimulate the economy. The fundamentals are in a stalemate, with greater potential for supply constraints. In a low - inventory state, the regional balance needs time to recover. It is recommended to focus on structural market trends, with the low point of copper prices in the second half of the year unlikely to break through 74,000 yuan/ton, and the high point may exceed 83,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material End 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - In Chile, the copper supply is in a recovery cycle. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 3.5% year - on - year to 1.752 million metric tons, with an absolute increase of 59,000 metric tons. The government expects a 3% increase in production in 2025 to 5.672 million metric tons, but there are uncertainties. Large - scale projects like Escondida have significant production increases, while some mines like Collahuasi and Anglo American Sur have lower - than - normal production [19][21] - In Peru, the copper mine is in a restorative growth period. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 887,000 metric tons, with an absolute increase of about 41,000 metric tons. The government expects the annual production to be around 2.8 million metric tons. Some projects have production differentiations, and the government's policies to stimulate production have limited effects for now [29][31] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the copper production was in a high - growth period but has faced challenges this year. Geopolitical issues, infrastructure weaknesses, and resource nationalism have affected production. The output of the Kamoa - Kakula project has been significantly reduced, and the production forecast for 2025 has been greatly lowered [34][35][36] - In China, copper production has been in a recovery phase since 2022 but is constrained by factors such as ore grade decline and aging mines. The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 is estimated to be 250,000 - 350,000 metric tons, with different trends in different regions [37][40] - From a company perspective, the production of major mining companies in 2024 increased by 3.3% to 17.05 million metric tons. In 2025, the growth is expected to be 2.1% to 17.41 million metric tons, mainly due to disruptions in African mines [42][43] - Regarding new projects, the marginal contribution of new global copper mines before 2028 is decreasing. Policy instability and external environment changes are the main risks for project delays or cancellations [46] 3.1.2 Recycled Materials - Overseas, due to the shortage of copper concentrate, smelters are relying more on cold materials. European smelters are competing for scrap copper, and India is increasing scrap copper imports. The US has new scrap - copper - based processing enterprises, and its scrap copper export ratio is expected to decline [50][52] - In China, smelters' demand for cold materials has increased, but supply has been restricted. From January to May, scrap copper imports decreased by nearly 2% year - on - year to 962,000 physical tons, mainly due to tariff policies and overseas demand. Domestic scrap copper supply is also constrained by fiscal and tax policies and profit margins. The supply of anode copper has also decreased [55][59] 3.1.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2024 was 530,000 - 550,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons in 2025. The copper raw material gap in China is expected to widen in 2025, and copper prices can regulate cold material supply. Attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policies [62][63] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Domestic Market - The shortage of copper concentrate has led to a decline in processing fees. If the long - term processing fee is set at a low level, Chinese smelters may face industry - wide losses. Sulfuric acid price increases have provided some support, but there are uncertainties. The planned production increase of major listed smelters in 2025 is to 8.5 million tons, but raw material shortages may limit production. The marginal growth of China's refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 600,000 - 700,000 metric tons [70][77][83] 3.2.2 Overseas Market - In Chile, the decline in refined copper production is significant, with an expected 10% decrease in 2025. Similar situations exist in Mexico. Overseas smelters are showing a trend of production cuts, mainly due to raw material constraints and processing fee decreases. The risk of a decline in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is increasing [86][91][92] 3.2.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2024 was 650,000 - 700,000 metric tons, and it is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons in 2025. The transfer of the raw material shortage to smelters takes time. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid prices and cold materials on smelters [94][95] 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1 Macro Level - From an economic cycle perspective, the global economy is in a transition from "recession" to "recovery," with different economic situations in different countries. The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the Fed's monetary policy shift is uncertain. The US dollar's credit cycle is weakening, and copper's financial attributes are expected to increase [97] - From a manufacturing cycle perspective, the global manufacturing PMI is around 50, and the recovery will be more differentiated. Tariff policies are the core external factor affecting manufacturing [102] - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit is expected to expand, and the US dollar will continue to depreciate. Copper will play a more important role in resource currency, and investment in copper will provide support [102] 3.3.2 Traditional Demand: China - In the power industry, grid investment is expected to grow steadily, with a focus on UHV projects and distribution network upgrades. Power source investment growth is slowing down, but there may be new drivers in 2026. Overseas exports of electrical equipment have been strong, but are affected by external policies [106][112][115] - In the home appliance industry, domestic air - conditioner sales and production increased in the first four months of 2025. Domestic sales may decline in the third quarter, while overseas sales are relatively strong but face risks from tariff policies. High inventory levels may limit production [117][119] - In the real estate industry, policies are being strengthened, but the industry is still in a bottom - building phase and will drag down copper demand this year, with a possible return to positive demand in 2026 - 2027 [120][121] - In the transportation industry, domestic automobile production is growing strongly, with new - energy vehicles as the main growth driver. However, it is affected by policy subsidies and consumer income expectations. China's automobile exports are facing bottlenecks [122][124] - The marginal growth of China's traditional copper demand in 2024 was 255,000 - 475,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 132,000 - 392,000 metric tons in 2025, with risks in the second half of the year [132] 3.3.3 Traditional Demand: Overseas - In the US, policies have increased inflation expectations and economic uncertainties. The real estate and durable - goods consumption markets show a downward trend but not a significant decline. The US government's policies on power infrastructure and renewable energy will drive copper demand growth [133][136][137]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is resuming production increases, putting pressure on oil supply, while US oil production growth remains limited, suggesting global oil prices may stabilize within a mid-range [1] Investment Opportunities - Five major investment themes are recommended: 1. Low-volatility dividend-leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises 2. Large refining companies and other chemical sectors showing signs of recovery 3. Companies with overseas production bases 4. Sectors benefiting from supply-demand improvements 5. Emerging demand in high-growth potential new materials industry [1] Capital Expenditure Insights - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and ongoing projects in the large chemical sector are projected to decline from 984.8 billion to 897.1 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in supply pressure and potential for industry recovery [1] Chemical Industry Profitability - The profitability of oil-based olefins is currently at a low point due to high oil prices, with ethane-based ethylene having a cost advantage of approximately 2000-2500 yuan/ton over oil-based and coal-based ethylene [3] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Certain chemical sub-sectors are showing signs of improvement, such as: - Pesticides: Prices may enter a recovery phase as supply stabilizes and seasonal demand returns - Refrigerants: A pricing cycle may begin following quota implementation - Civil explosives: Expected to benefit from national strategies like the Western Development [4] Globalization and Resource Opportunities - In the context of geopolitical instability, Chinese chemical companies with overseas bases may gain strategic advantages, while limited supply of quality mineral resources and rising extraction costs could push prices higher [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its transition from a debt-driven growth model to a new consumption-driven model, indicating the end of the industrialization phase and the debt and real estate cycles [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Transition**: The Chinese economy is shifting away from reliance on debt-driven capital expenditure, leading to reduced capital spending and a focus on new consumption areas. This change reflects a broader trend of investment constraints, increased consumption, reduced savings, and expanded imports [1][2][3]. - **Asset Price Revaluation**: Traditional industries in China are expected to undergo a process of consolidation, reducing excessive competition. This is driven by efforts from enterprises, individuals, and government sectors to enhance capital return rates (ROE) and free cash flow, resulting in a systematic increase in asset prices [1][3][7][8]. - **Global Capital Flow**: There is a notable shift in international capital flows from the U.S. to non-U.S. economies, particularly Europe and China. This trend is expected to continue unless a significant systemic collapse occurs, which would further weaken the dollar's credibility and accelerate its depreciation [1][13][14]. - **Renminbi Performance**: The Renminbi is showing a trend of appreciation in offshore markets, primarily due to issues with the U.S. dollar rather than improvements in the Chinese economy. The expectation is for the dollar to continue weakening over the next two years [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of De-globalization**: The de-globalization trend has led to capital outflows from the U.S., increasing U.S. Treasury yields and indicating systemic risks within the U.S. economy. This shift has been exacerbated by China's reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings [10][11]. - **Future of European Economy**: The European economy lacks long-term expansion potential, as reliance on debt cycles is unsustainable. In contrast, China's initial debt expansion during its economic startup phase was feasible, but continuing this approach in a mature economy is challenging [15]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to see a rotation among major financial sectors (banks, insurance, brokerage firms) towards core asset styles, driven by supply-side recovery. This will lead to premium pricing for core assets and discounts for tail-end companies [20]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment regarding the revaluation of Chinese assets remains optimistic, with expectations of systematic price increases across various sectors, reflecting a shift towards a more sustainable economic model focused on free cash flow and capital efficiency [20].

Group 1 - The global economy is undergoing profound structural changes, characterized by weak growth momentum, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and a dilemma of high inflation, high interest rates, high debt, and low growth [2] - Private entrepreneurs' ability to accurately assess the economic situation and grasp development trends will directly determine the scientific and feasible nature of corporate strategy formulation [3][4] - Many enterprises are still stuck in traditional development models, incurring high trial-and-error costs [3] Group 2 - The current global economic situation is viewed as the early stage of a Great Depression, which is a core manifestation of a century-long change [5] - The Great Depression is not a natural phenomenon but a forced correction due to long-term deviations from objective economic laws [5] - The evolution of this crisis is expected to present three stages: "value return period" (2023-2025), "structural adjustment period" (2026-2028), and "order reconstruction period" (2029-2031) [6] Group 3 - The current economic crisis is marked by a deep restructuring of the post-World War II international economic and political order [8] - The dollar is entering a historical "value return" process, with its share in international settlements dropping from 73% in 2001 to 47% today [9] - The new colonialism is in a "structural adjustment" decline cycle, with a significant shift towards decolonization movements led by countries like those in BRICS [10][11] Group 4 - The decoupling of the US and Chinese economies has initiated a new era of de-globalization, fundamentally altering the global economic landscape [12][13] - The current economic crisis is compounded by a technological revolution, with the fifth and sixth industrial revolutions reshaping industries and accelerating the pace of corporate evolution [14][15] Group 5 - The economic crisis is characterized by a "crisis transfer" mechanism, where developed countries are shifting internal crises externally through monetary, industrial, financial, and geopolitical dimensions [17][18] - The domestic economy is expected to face profound impacts, including a debt crisis for local governments and state-owned enterprises, leading to a series of chain reactions [19][20] Group 6 - A wave of bankruptcies and restructurings among private enterprises is anticipated, as the old growth model based on demographic, resource, reform, and industrial chain dividends is nearing exhaustion [21][22] - The A-share market is undergoing a significant valuation system reconstruction, with traditional fundraising models becoming increasingly unsustainable [22][23] Group 7 - The current economic downturn is expected to exacerbate social tensions, with rising litigation and social unrest due to economic pressures [24] - The crisis is likely to lead to a significant increase in the number of corporate bankruptcies, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises [24] Group 8 - To effectively respond to the economic crisis, a systematic crisis response mechanism is needed, focusing on local government debt resolution, financial system restructuring, and enterprise transformation [28][29] - Enterprises should adopt a digital asset strategy, enhance governance, and prepare for mixed ownership reforms to ensure adaptability and resilience [32][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each market, considering factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - price relationships [5][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.04%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - **Economic Data**: The central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 23, with an operating rate of 1.40%. Meanwhile, 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured on the same day [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: With stable macro - data but weak economic recovery momentum, it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Given the relatively low Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade agreement, it is advisable to be cautious as there is unlikely to be a trending market [5][6]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.68%, 0.74%, 0.64%, and 1.01% respectively [7]. - **Economic Data**: As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar and wind power generation capacity increased by 56.9% and 23.1% respectively. From January to May, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 132 hours compared to the previous year, while power grid investment increased by 19.8% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in corporate profits. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 781.3, up 0.35%, and the night - session closing price was 786.1. The silver main contract closed at 8,770, up 1.22%, with a night - session closing price of 8809 [10]. - **Economic Data**: The preliminary values of the Eurozone's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs in June were 49.4, 50.0, and 50.2 respectively [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the uncertainty of tariffs, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Commodities Steel - related - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand relationship in the real estate industry and the entry into the off - season are suppressing prices. However, due to the low valuation, the downside space may be limited. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [12][13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures showed weak fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and its valuation is relatively high among black - series varieties. Investors can consider buying at low levels and exit on rebounds, with a stop - loss if the previous low is broken. A light - position participation is recommended [15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance. The market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, the decline may stop, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds and participate with a light position [17][18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon declined. The supply is still high while the demand is weak. In the short term, the oversupply situation may continue, and the price is under pressure. Investors can consider low - value call options if the spot losses increase significantly [20][21]. Energy - related - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The market sentiment has eased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. The US has increased its net long positions in crude oil futures and options. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [22][23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling, with a relatively strong trend. The reduction of Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the uncertainty of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are positive factors. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see [25][26][27]. Rubber - related - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize and rebound. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber remained flat, while the 20 - grade rubber main contract declined. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is relatively stable. The market may continue to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long after the market stabilizes [30][32]. Chemical - related - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The production is expected to decrease, the demand shows no sign of improvement, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The market is in a bottom - oscillating state [33][35]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea declined. The large - scale agricultural seasonal demand is basically over, and the industrial demand is weak. However, considering the inventory reduction, it is advisable to take a bullish view [36][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fluctuated and adjusted. The supply - demand may weaken, but the cost is expected to drive the price. It is advisable to operate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [38]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is strong. It is advisable to participate at low levels and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined. The supply - demand has weakened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The geopolitical situation may reduce supply, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to take a cautiously bullish view and pay attention to inventory and import changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. It is advisable to go long at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost is strong, and the supply will decrease due to equipment maintenance. The demand is improving. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly [43][44]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass rose slightly. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market lacks positive support. It is not advisable to chase the short - term rebound blindly, and short - position holders should control their positions [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda rose. The production is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position holders should control their positions [46][47]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, although the domestic mechanical pulp market has a slight upward trend [48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply remains high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [49]. Agricultural - related - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak downward trend. The overseas macro - environment suppresses the price, but the raw material supply and low global inventory provide support. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long [50][51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption data is good. The price is expected to fluctuate [52]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support has weakened, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The good weather in the US Midwest is beneficial to soybean growth. The inventory of both is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal and consider exiting long positions on rallies for soybean oil [54][56]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil closed up. The domestic inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [57][58]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures declined. The domestic inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. It is advisable to consider opportunities to go long on the ratio of oil to meal [59][60]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and the domestic inventory is low. It is advisable to go long in batches [64][66][67]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures declined. The new - year production is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [68][69]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, the national average price of pigs rose. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to pay attention to the weight - reduction of large - scale farms and consider positive arbitrage opportunities in peak - season contracts [70][72]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs remained flat. The supply is increasing, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is advisable to try shorting on rebounds [73][75][76]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of corn rose slightly, while the main contract of corn starch declined. The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and the policy is favorable. It is advisable to wait and see for corn starch, which follows the corn market [76][77][78]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of log rose. The market has no obvious driver, and the spot price is weak. The housing transaction has slightly improved, and it is necessary to be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances in the 07 contract [79][80][81].

来源|每日经济新闻、蓝鲸新闻 据蓝鲸新闻报道，近日，胖东来创始人于东来开启直播，在直播中他再次明确将关闭多家胖东来门店，包括生活广场、人民路店、五一路店等。 此前在2023年、2024年的演讲中，于东来多次提及2025年底将关闭或迁移生活广场店。据胖东来官网数据显示，截至6月22日，生活广场2025 年销售额超8亿元，在所有门店中排名第五位。 6月23日，记者致电胖东来生活广场店，工作人员称，此前已有迁址或关店计划，具体时间要公告通知，目前门店正常营业中。 官网显示， 截至2025年6月22日， 胖东来集团合计销售额已达112.92亿元， 其中超市业态销售超61亿元。 值得一提的是， 时代广场店销售额达27.83亿元。于东来估计，2025年时代广场销售额预计达60亿元左右。 他还表示："这就是真诚和善良的力 量！ 可以参考的横向数据是，沃尔玛中国总裁朱晓静在2025年沃尔玛投资大会上曾披露， 中国将有8家山姆会员店单店年销售额突破人民币36亿元。 永辉超市、大润发在2024年的单店平均业绩为1亿元、1.4亿元。 值得注意的是，据大象新闻此前消息，3月28日，在2025中国超市周活动现场，胖东来创始人于东来公开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most products, the report analyzes the market conditions from aspects such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, and then gives corresponding investment suggestions, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views [5][7][10] - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal factors, and different products show different trends and investment opportunities [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income Products 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 20, with a net withdrawal of 4.13 billion yuan on that day. The June LPR quote remained stable [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 4.2% year - on - year. The stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year, and the securities trading stamp duty revenue increased by 52.4% year - on - year. In May, the total social power consumption increased by 4.4% year - on - year [7] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and considers going long on stock index futures [8][9] 3.2 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [10] - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11] 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak trend. Geopolitical risks and the rebound of the US dollar index put pressure on copper prices. However, the increase in US refined copper inventory and the uncertainty of copper tariffs provide a basis for copper price increases [51] - It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract [52] 3.3.2 Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the domestic processing fee is low, and the smelter's raw material inventory is further tightened. The export of refined tin from Indonesia has returned to normal, and the downstream production schedule data is good, and both domestic and overseas inventories are showing a de - stocking trend [53] - It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [53] 3.3.3 Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering greater losses. The stainless - steel consumption is pessimistic, which may drag down the ore price. On the other hand, the MHP price has strengthened, and the cost of nickel sulfate has certain support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high [54] - It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [54] 3.3.4 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, the iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The iron - water daily output has declined, and the support for the iron ore price from strong demand has weakened. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is relatively stable. The iron ore price valuation is the highest among black - series products [15] - Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, stop profit in time when the price rebounds, and stop loss if it falls below the previous low [15] 3.3.5 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The real - estate industry is in a downward trend, and the demand for rebar is declining, and there is over - capacity, which suppresses the price. The market has entered the off - season, and the price support from peak - season demand has weakened [12] - The steel price valuation is at a low level, and the downward space may not be large. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13] 3.3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The coking coal and coke market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. The steel - mill's iron - water output has declined, and the coking enterprises' production has decreased [17] - The short - term decline of coking coal and coke futures is expected to stop, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17][18] 3.3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. The manganese - ore shipment volume from Gabon has increased significantly, and the port manganese - ore inventory has increased slightly. The iron - alloy production has increased at a low level, and the demand is weak, and the supply is still high [20] - After entering the off - season, the short - term demand for iron alloys has peaked, and the price is under pressure. If the spot loss intensifies significantly, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [20][21] 3.4 Energy Products 3.4.1 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Geopolitical risks continue to ferment. The fund manager increased the net long position of US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has decreased for eight consecutive weeks. The US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has intensified the Middle East conflict [22][23] - Oil prices are expected to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the crude oil main contract [23][24] 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose first and then fell, showing a strong trend. The conflict between Israel and Iran has increased geopolitical risks, which has pushed up crude oil prices and driven up fuel - oil prices. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will be slightly negative for fuel - oil prices [25][26] - It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the fuel - oil main contract [27] 3.5 Chemical Products 3.5.1 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber main contract fell. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved, and the demand improvement is limited. The cost is expected to rebound, which will drive the market to stabilize and rebound. The raw - material price is volatile, the production capacity utilization rate has declined, the tire - enterprise inventory is high, and the export order is restricted by tariffs [28] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29] 3.5.2 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural - rubber main contract fell. The market is worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season, which has led to a sharp decline in the market. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The social inventory is at a relatively high level [30] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then focus on going long opportunities [32] 3.5.3 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand drive of PVC itself is not strong, and it is in the traditional off - season from June to July. The production is expected to return after the maintenance weakens, and the rebound space is limited. The supply capacity utilization rate has increased, the demand is weak, and the cost has decreased [33] - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [35] 3.5.4 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. Affected by the phased release of agricultural demand and the tightening of overseas supply, urea has stabilized and rebounded. The domestic urea daily output is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weakening [36] - Be bullish on urea in the short term [37] 3.5.5 PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread has been adjusted, and the PX - MX spread has increased. The PX load has decreased slightly, and there have been many changes in overseas devices. The import volume has increased. The cost is affected by the conflict between Israel and Iran, and the international crude - oil price has continued to rise [38] - In the short term, the PX price is dominated by the cost, but the supply - demand expectation may weaken, and the upward increase may be limited. Consider cautious operation on dips [38] 3.5.6 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load has increased, and the downstream is digesting inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil and PX [39] - In the short term, the PTA supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is bullish. Consider going long on dips [39] 3.5.7 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract rose slightly. The overall ethylene - glycol operating load has increased, and some Iranian devices have stopped. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream polyester operating rate has increased. The terminal loom operating rate has declined [40] - In the short term, the ethylene - glycol supply - demand situation has weakened, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply may be further reduced due to geopolitical factors. Be cautiously bullish, and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [40] 3.5.8 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - fiber device load has decreased, the downstream sales are average, and the raw - material price has strengthened, providing support [41] - The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. Consider short - term long positions on dips and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing fee [41] 3.5.9 Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The raw - material price has strengthened, and the device maintenance has increased, which has boosted the market. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover, and the bottle - chip export has maintained high - speed growth [42] - The bottle - chip supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate. Consider cautious participation on dips and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing fee [42] 3.5.10 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda - ash main contract fell slightly. The soda - ash device has been slightly adjusted, the downstream demand is average, and the inventory has increased. The supply has increased, and the new orders are general [43] - The long - term supply - surplus situation of soda ash is difficult to relieve, and the downstream demand is weak. The short - term rebound is not recommended to be over - chased [43][45] 3.5.11 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. The market is at a historical low, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, and is expected to cut interest rates twice by a total of 50 basis points in 2025. The U.S. economy may face a "stagflation-like" environment with lower growth but resilience and rising inflation. The Fed will likely remain on hold until the economic fundamentals are clear, but the possibility of a rate cut increases if the labor market cools further [3][4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Fed Meeting Main Highlights - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the fourth consecutive hold, in line with market expectations. It raised inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth expectations for 2025 - 2027. The 2025, 2026, 2027 year - end core PCE inflation expectations were raised to 3.1%, 2.4%, 2.1% respectively, and GDP growth expectations were lowered to 1.4%, 1.6%, 1.8% respectively [3]. - The Fed's dot - plot shows 2025 is expected to have two rate cuts of 50 basis points, consistent with March expectations, but 2026 is expected to have only a 25 - basis - point cut. Among 19 officials, 7 think there will be no cut in 2025, 2 expect one cut, 8 expect two cuts, and 2 expect three cuts [4]. - Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. economy is stable, but trade and fiscal policy adjustments are uncertain. Tariffs may push up prices and cause inflation pressure, and the labor market does not call for a rate cut. Due to tariff uncertainties, the Fed is on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Price Trends of Major Asset Classes - After the Fed's decision, major asset prices fluctuated little. U.S. stocks had mixed performance: the S&P 500 fell 0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.10%, the Nasdaq rose 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 was flat, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.52%. The VIX fell 6.71% [10]. - In the bond market, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was flat, and the two - year yield fell 1.04 basis points. The U.S. dollar index had a U - shaped reversal and rose slightly over 0.1%. The yen fell 0.1%, and the Australian dollar rose over 0.5%. The offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell 29 points [10][11]. - Crude oil prices were affected by geopolitical risks. WTI July crude futures closed at $75.14/barrel, and Brent August crude futures closed at $76.70/barrel. European natural gas prices rose for six consecutive days. Gold futures fell about 0.7%, copper futures rose about 0.9%, platinum reached an 11 - year high, and silver fell [11][12][13]. 3.3 Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Fed Monetary Policy - Overseas macro - environment remained stable despite global trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The U.S. May unemployment rate was 4.2%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, slightly lower than the previous value but higher than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [14]. - U.S. May inflation was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year. Overseas macro - data stability helps ease recession concerns and repair stock market valuations [16][17]. - The U.S. economy may face a "stagflation - like" environment. The Fed will likely remain on hold, but the probability of a rate cut increases if the labor market cools. Market expectations are in line with the dot - plot, with a 66% probability of a September rate cut and a 68% chance of a 50 - basis - point or more cut by December [19]. 3.4 Views on Subsequent Asset Trends - U.S. stocks have recovered most of the losses since "Liberation Day" but may face resistance to further upside due to tariff uncertainties [21]. - U.S. Treasury yields remain around 4.4%. Although the Fed may cut rates, long - term inflation recovery may limit the decline of long - end yields [21]. - For precious metals, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends enhance their value. Gold has upward potential, and silver may have more room for growth given the high gold - silver ratio [21]. - For commodities, Fed rate cuts and lower recession risks are positive, but they are mainly determined by geopolitical risks and China's supply - demand contradictions. Global - priced commodities are expected to outperform domestic - priced ones [21]. - The U.S. dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle, and the RMB may enter an appreciation channel with China's economic recovery [22]. - For A - shares, weak price indices, negative PPI, and low nominal GDP growth restrict corporate profit rebounds. The current stock index may face resistance to rising and has room to fall, waiting for macro - economic recovery [22][23].

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+0.13%到 9660.50 美元/吨，沪铜-0.03%到 7.80 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数跌至-44.78 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨，较上周四上升 0.11 万吨，较去年同期的 39.94 万吨低 25.25 万吨。冶炼端，2025 年 5 月中国进口阳极铜 6.94 万吨，环比减少 6.48%， 同比减少 30.56%。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率环比上升至 75.82%，环比上升 2.50 个百分 点，较预期值低 0.77 个百分点，同比上升 5.67 个百分点；本周漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.2 个百分点至 81.9%，周订单量环比微涨 0.51%；本周国内黄铜棒生产企业开工率持续走低，较上周回落 0.83 个百分点至 51.18%。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+2.34%到 2561.50 美元/吨，沪铝+0.12%到 2.05 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 44.9 万吨，较本周一下降 0.9 万吨， ...

以下文章来源于霞光社 ，作者张楠茜 霞光社 . 赋能企业全球化 本文来自微信公众号： 霞光社 ，作者：张楠茜，编辑：李小天，题图来自：AI生成 2025年夏天，或许是赴美留学的中国学子及家庭，最为挣扎和焦虑的开学季。 当地时间5月27日，特朗普政府宣布暂停新的学生签证面谈预约，同时考虑扩 大对国际学生社交媒体 审查范围。 刘熙正在准备去美国读博，开学进度就这样突然被按下暂停键。"消息出来后的几天刷了刷，连可预 约的界面都没有。"刘熙说，再耗下去可能无法顺利入学。 而在此之前已经获得签证的黎丽，形容心情也"像过山车一样刺激"。她是哈佛大学今年新录取的研究 生。不久前，特朗普政府对哈佛大学发出招收国际生的禁令，虽然很快就被最高法院暂时遏制，一场 风波却在黎丽和父母心中留下疑问——新加坡或香港，会是比哈佛的性价比更高的选择吗？ 黎丽的纠结，是很多中国留学生心态的共同缩影。有数据显示，中国赴美留学人数近几年正在大幅下 降，如今印度已经超越中国，成为美国留学人数最多的国家。 "一切都悬而未决。"是动荡局势中的人们说得最多的一句话。没人知道，悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑 何时会落下，能做的只有小心谨慎地等待观望着。 而在当地 ...