1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Morning Report - September 30, 2025 [1] - Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Due to concerns about the US government shutdown, gold and silver prices have risen. Gold prices reached a new high, and silver prices continued to rise significantly. Overall, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but investors are advised to hold light positions during holidays [4][6] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to decline, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices [10][13] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - US government shutdown concerns pushed up gold and silver prices. US and European stock indexes closed slightly higher, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar [4][6] - COMEX gold futures rose 1.42% to $3,862.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.97% to $47.11 per ounce [4][6] 2. Daily Tips - Today, focus on China's September PMI, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, US August job openings, and intensive speeches by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank members [4] - Although precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, due to the many events during the holiday and the continued concerns about the US government shutdown, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][6] 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and central bank events are scheduled for today, including Japan's economic data, China's PMI data, Australia's central bank policy rate decision, and speeches by central bank officials from the US, Europe, and the UK [15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is -4.62, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,802 kilograms to 68,628 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased, which is bullish [5] - **Silver**: The basis is -59, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is neutral; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 31,382 kilograms to 1,189,648 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long positions increased, which is bullish [6] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.48% on September 29 compared to September 28, the short positions decreased by 4.39%, and the net position increased by 1.67%. Compared with September 26, the long positions decreased by 10.43%, the short positions decreased by 8.40%, and the net position decreased by 16.77% [30][31] - **Silver**: Not detailed in the position change data, but the main net position is long and the main long positions increased [6] - **SPDR Gold ETF**: The ETF holdings continued to increase [34] - **Silver ETF**: The ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [37]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) jumping over 3%, reaching a four-year high, and attracting a net subscription of 14.4 million units [1] - Key stocks such as Xiyegongsi and Huaxi Youse hit the daily limit, while Huayou Cobalt rose over 9%, and Jiangxi Copper and Baiyin Youse increased by more than 7% [1] - Major stocks like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum rose over 4% [1] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $3,876 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with expectations of further upward movement due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [3] - Factors supporting precious metal prices include increased demand for safe-haven assets, central bank gold purchases, and inflation expectations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is seen as a key "slow variable" benefiting the entire non-ferrous sector, with different metals responding at different paces [4] Group 3 - The macro drivers for gold include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical disturbances increasing safe-haven demand, and central bank accumulation [5] - Strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and tin are expected to benefit from global geopolitical dynamics [5] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to enhance production efficiency and improve market expectations, positively impacting metal prices [4][5] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its connected funds track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings of copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), providing a diversified investment approach [6] - The index has shown varied performance over the past five years, with significant fluctuations in returns, indicating the importance of diversification in investment strategies [8]

（原标题：8月份欧元区通胀预期回升） 欧洲央行最新调查显示，欧元区8月份消费者短期通胀预期回升，市场对央行将暂停降息的预期有 所上升。未来12个月通胀预期中值由7月份的2.6%升至2.8%，五年期预期升至2.2%。 ...

新华财经北京9月29日电（王姝睿）日本政府周一表示，经济正在温和复苏，但美国贸易政策对汽车行 业的影响尤为明显。尽管上调了对民间支出和资本支出的看法，但日本政府提醒美国贸易政策可能给经 济前景带来下行风险。 数据显示，日本第二季度经济增长快于预期，连续第五个季度扩张。日本第二季度实际GDP年化季率上 修至2.2%，远高于初值的1%。第二季度GDP环比增速上修至0.5%，高于初值的0.3%。经合组织预计， 日本经济在2025年将增长1.1%，较此前预测上调0.4个百分点，主要受益于强劲的企业盈利和稳健的投 资。 日本政府认为，资本支出因数字投资和机械设备增长而"温和复苏"，为2024年3月以来首次上调评估。 野口旭提醒称，日本央行需在审视物价、国内外经济发展的同时灵活调整货币政策。 （文章来源：新华财经） 同时，日本政府自2024年8月以来首次上调对消费者支出的评估。月度报告称，签订关税协议后消费者 信心改善，占经济过半的私人消费出现"回暖迹象"。 日本农林中金综合研究所经济学家南武志表示，日本经济持续增长得到确认，且企业具备转嫁涨价成本 的能力，这为年底前加息提供了支撑。尽管第二季度私人消费仅小幅增长，但如果 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations declining [1][12] - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened overall, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced [1][17] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices' volatility also declining [2][31] - Trading heat in sectors such as electronics, automotive, consumer services, real estate, textiles, and communications remains above the 80th percentile [2][24] - The volatility of the communication sector remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages, with mechanical, transportation, banking, and consumer services sectors seeing a month-on-month increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026, with increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, consumer services, chemicals, machinery, and automotive [4][49] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][49] - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the CSI 500 index has seen downward adjustments [4][49] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show net selling but at a slower pace [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like electronics, electric vehicles, and automotive has increased, while it has decreased in non-bank, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity is approaching the highest point since July 2020, with a net purchase of 26.48 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in electronics, communications, and electric vehicle sectors, while net sales were seen in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank sectors [6][35] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have reduced their positions, primarily increasing allocations in media, computing, and machinery sectors while decreasing in communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and mid/small-cap growth and small-cap value has increased [8][45] - New fund establishment sizes have decreased, with active funds seeing a rebound while passive funds have declined [8][50]

03 利率与流动性 利空不跌，进入趋势性上 涨阶段 贵金属周报 2025/09/27 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 周度行情回顾：内盘截至周五日盘收盘，沪金涨3.07%，报856.06 元/克，沪银涨6.63%，报10632.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨1.89%，报3789.80 美 元/盎司，COMEX银涨6.92%，报46.37 美元/盎司； ◆ 本周所公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，联储部分官员表态鹰派，但贵金属价格面对利空因素的反应相对有限：周四公布的美国二季度经济数据修 正值超预期，美国二季度实际GDP年化季度环比终值为3.8%，高于预期和前值的3.3%。美国二季度实际个人消费支出季度环比终值为2.5%，大幅 高于预期的1.7%和前值的1.6%。美国8月耐用品订单环比值为2.9%，大幅高于预期的-0.5%以及前值的-2 ...

（文章来源：中国新闻网） 分析人士认为，这一预期上扬在一定程度反映出通胀压力在英国经济中仍具持续性。事实上，英国8月 份的整体通胀水平已攀升至3.8%。英国央行预计通胀将在9月触顶至4.0%，并预测其回落至2%目标水平 可能要到2027年春季。 在此背景下，英国央行在本月暗示可能放缓未来降息步伐。央行指出，在通胀下行轨迹尚未确立之前， 其将谨慎评估进一步调整利率的节奏。(完) 中新网伦敦9月28日电 (记者欧阳开宇)机构调查显示，英国公众对未来五年至十年间的中长期通胀预期 有所上升，这一动向加剧了市场对英国央行货币政策路径的关注。 调查由花旗银行与民调机构YouGov联合进行，显示公众对五至十年期的通胀预期从8月的3.9%上升至9 月的4.1%，不过仍低于7月的4.2%和6月的4.3%水平。短期通胀预期则连续三个月维持在4.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent social media post by Trump, depicting a humorous take on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlights the ongoing tension between political influence and central bank independence, raising concerns about potential market reactions to perceived threats to this independence [2][5]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has publicly criticized Powell and the Federal Reserve multiple times, suggesting that the recent interest rate cuts are insufficient and labeling Powell as "Mr. Too Late" [2]. - The Supreme Court has reaffirmed that the President cannot dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman without just cause, indicating that Trump's threats may be more symbolic than actionable [2][3]. - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's personnel decisions, including efforts to remove board member Lisa Cook, could undermine the institution's independence [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Historical precedents show that political pressure on the Federal Reserve has led to increased market volatility, as seen during Trump's previous criticisms of Powell in 2018 [2]. - Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that an unusual dismissal of Powell could lead to a significant spike in 10-year Treasury yields, reflecting investor concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [2]. - Despite the current low volatility in bond markets, there are warnings that political noise could amplify risks, especially as the election approaches [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Independence - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve's focus remains on policies that benefit the American people, regardless of political pressures [4]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining market confidence, as any perceived erosion of this independence could lead to increased long-term interest rates [5]. - The current situation serves as a reminder that in the age of social media, the perception of central bank independence is as important as its legal standing [5].

Group 1: Silver ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15,361.84 tons of silver as of September 26, a decrease of 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, spot silver closed at $46.04 per ounce, marking a 1.95% increase, with intraday prices reaching a high of $46.62 and a low of $44.51 [1] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated a decline in consumer confidence, with the index dropping to 55.1 in September, a decrease of 3.1 points or approximately 5% from the previous month, and the lowest level since May [3] - The survey revealed that nearly 70% of American consumers expect inflation to exceed their income growth over the next year, a significant increase from less than 60% in September 2024 [3] - Approximately 65% of consumers anticipate a rise in unemployment over the next year, up from 57% in July 2025 and 35% a year ago [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The survey highlighted that consumer sentiment is broadly weakening across various demographics, with the exception of consumers with substantial stock portfolios, who showed more resilience [4] - Although inflation expectations for the next 12 months have slightly decreased, they remain high, while long-term inflation expectations have increased [4] - Overall, concerns about inflation have eased since the spring, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment [4]