Group 1 - The A-share market is strengthening while the bond market is experiencing continuous adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 1.90% [1] - Private equity institutions believe that the bond market's acceptance of recession narratives has significantly decreased, indicating a shift away from the previous "lying win" investment strategy based on declining interest rates [1][6] - The recent increase in CPI and PPI suggests a warming domestic economy, leading to heightened inflation expectations and a reversal in the bond market's attitude towards recession narratives [2] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains relatively high at around 4.8%, despite a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve [3] - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds is becoming more pronounced, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a high point not seen since September 2024 [4] - Analysts expect limited upward momentum for the 10-year government bond yield in the short term, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities for increased allocations at the beginning of the year [4] Group 3 - The net supply of interest rate bonds is projected to reach 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, indicating a significant increase compared to 2025 [5] - Despite the anticipated increase in bond supply, the demand for bonds may not improve significantly due to challenges in real financing needs and a downward trend in loan rates [5] - The current low interest rate environment is leading to a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a growing opportunity for "class fixed income" strategy products [6][7]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to strengthen while the bond market faces adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 1.90% [1] - Private equity institutions believe that the bond market's acceptance of recession narratives has significantly decreased, indicating a shift away from the previous "lying win" investment strategy based on declining interest rates [1][6] - The current economic recovery signals, along with rising inflation expectations, have led to a reversal in the bond market's attitude towards recession narratives for 2023-2024 [2] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains high at around 4.8%, despite a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 [3] - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds is becoming more pronounced, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a high point last seen in September 2024 [4] - Analysts expect limited upward momentum for the 10-year government bond yield in the short term, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities for increased allocations at the beginning of the year [4] Group 3 - The net supply of interest rate bonds is projected to reach 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, indicating a significant increase compared to 2025 [5] - The demand for bonds is expected to slow down due to challenges in improving real financing needs and the ongoing downward trend in broad interest rates [5] - The current low interest rate environment is leading to a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a growing opportunity for "class fixed income" strategy products as traditional models become less effective [6][7]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 01 月 15 日美联储公布经济状况褐皮书（03:00）美国至 1 月 10 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（21:30） 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国非农就业数据喜忧参半；本周重点关注美国 12 月 CPI、美国最高 法院推迟对特朗普关税案件的判决以及美联储经济状况褐皮书等。 上周回顾美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数 4.1 万人，预期 4.7 万人，前值-3.2 万人。美国至 1 月 3 日当周初请 失业金人数 20.8 万人，预期 21 万人，前值由 19.9 万人修正为 20 万人。美国 10 月贸易帐 -294 亿美 元，预期 -589 亿美元，前值由 -528 亿美元修正为 -481 亿美元。美国 12 月非农就业新增 5 万人，不及 预期的 7.3 万，亦低于下修后的 11 月 5.6 万；失业率降至 4.4%，低于预期 4.5%。同时，10 月与 11 月 就业数据合计被下修 7.6 万人。BLS 数据显示，2025 年全年月均新增就业仅 4.9 万，显著低于 2024 年 的 16.8 万。 密歇根大学消费者调查显示，2026 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Employment trend in the US is weakening but may be emerging from the worst period. The non - farm payroll increase in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate and wage growth were better than expected. Some employment indicators in December showed a rebound [11][13]. - The expected Q1环比 rebound in the US economy is being realized. The US economic surprise index has rebounded recently, and the retail sales data in January is expected to show growth [14][16]. - Inflation expectations have significantly rebounded. Attention should be paid to the CPI data reading. The release of December CPI data is affected by government shutdown, and the geopolitical situation in Iran has affected oil prices and inflation expectations [17][19]. - Attention should be paid to the tariff policy framework changes brought by the IEEPA ruling. If the US Supreme Court rules IEEPA unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund and cause short - term tariff policy chaos [20][23]. - In FICC precious metals, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, and silver should be wary of fluctuations. Geopolitical risks have increased the upward drive of gold, while the conditions for silver to continue to rise are becoming more demanding [24][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income Weekly Performance** - Various US Treasury yields had different weekly changes. For example, the 3 - month US Treasury yield was 3.59% with a - 2.06bp change, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.53% with a 5.88bp change. Major developed country government bond yields also changed, such as the 10 - year German bond yield at 2.86% with a - 3.7bp change [41][42]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spread Tracking** - The US Treasury yield curve showed changes over 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month periods, and the long - short spread of US Treasury yields was also tracked [49]. - **Relative Strength of Different - Rated Credit Bonds and Eurozone Bond Yields** - The relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds was analyzed, along with the credit spreads between different - rated bonds [58][60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators** - The issuance of US short - term Treasury bills, medium - and long - term Treasury bonds, and related subscription ratios were presented [71][73]. 2. Exchange Rate Market - **Global Major Exchange Rates Weekly Performance** - The US dollar index, euro, yen, and other major exchange rates had different weekly changes. For example, the US dollar index had a 0.72% change to 99.1330, and the euro had a - 0.70% change to 1.1637 [76][78]. - **Major Country Treasury Yield Spreads with US Treasuries** - The spreads between 10 - year US Treasuries and G7 countries' average yields, as well as the spreads between US and German 2 - year Treasury yields, were shown [79][80]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework** - China's "interest rate corridor" is formed with the 7 - day reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market as the "policy rate", SLF as the top, and the excess reserve ratio as the bottom. Traditional policy tools rely on MLF as the policy - guiding rate [88]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of RMB Exchange Rate** - Monthly indicators include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, and high - frequency indicators include the spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury yields [93][101]. 3. Commodities - **Global Major Commodities Weekly Performance** - Various commodities such as Shanghai gold, Shanghai copper, and Brent crude oil had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold had a 2.96% change, and Brent crude oil had a 4.09% change [119][121]. - **Commodity Ratios and Industry Chain Relative Strength** - Ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and their relationships with inflation expectations and US Treasury yield spreads were analyzed [123][124]. - **Commodity Price Mapping in Equity and Bond Markets** - The relative strength of commodities with global equity and bond indices, and the rolling correlation between upstream commodities and downstream equity cycle sectors were studied [131][134]. - **Macro Commodity High - Frequency Data** - Data such as OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventories were presented [141][143]. 4. Overseas Equity - **Global Major Indices and US Stock Industry Weekly Performance** - Global major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and their weekly changes were reported. In the US stock market, different sectors of the S&P index also had different weekly performances [146][150]. - **Weekly US Stock Style Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking** - Different US stock style sectors such as US large - cap growth and US small - cap value had different weekly changes. Valuations and earnings (EPS) of major indices were also analyzed [153][157]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices** - The quarterly EPS YoY trends of indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei 225 were shown [164][165]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators** - Indicators such as the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio were presented [171][172]. 5. Cryptocurrency - **BTC, ETH, and Related Derivative Assets** - The relationships between Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and the US dollar, as well as the performance of major Bitcoin ETFs and their fund flows were studied [184][187]. 6. BOJ Post - YCC Era - **Yen Carry Trade System Market High - Frequency Data Tracking** - Data such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging costs, and yen net positions of CFTC CME yen hedge funds and asset management institutions were presented [192][194]. 7. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data - **Real - Time Economic Momentum** - Real - time GDP models, GDP components, and sector economic surprise indices of the US, as well as economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China were presented [202][206]. - **Financial Conditions** - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its weekly changes, G4 central banks' balance sheets as a percentage of GDP, and US and euro - area financial condition indices were analyzed [210][213]. - **Fiscal Policy** - US federal government fiscal expenditures and revenues, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP were studied [218][223]. - **Employment Market** - US employment market indicators such as non - farm payroll monthly increases, job vacancies, and weekly unemployment claims were tracked [227][228]. - **Inflation Indicators** - US inflation data was split, and trends of headline and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations, were analyzed [235][240]. - **Consumption Demand** - US consumption data such as retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt were studied [244][259]. - **Cycle Positioning** - Industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as US wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventory and inventory - to - sales ratios were analyzed [267][277]. - **Credit Cycle** - US credit surveys, S&P index valuations, and high - yield corporate credit spreads were presented [280][282]. - **Transportation and Logistics** - Logistics data between China and the US, Asia and the US, Europe and the US, as well as aviation, supply - chain, and shipping data were studied [284][297]. - **Real Estate Market** - US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate data such as indices, loan amounts, and delinquency rates were presented [302][308]. - **Eurozone** - Eurozone macro - overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength data such as deficit rates, inflation, and economic surprise indices were analyzed [311][331].

Core Viewpoint - The presentation discusses the outlook for 2026, emphasizing the implications of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its effects on the U.S. economy and global markets [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $9.1 trillion in 2022 to just over $6 trillion, resulting in a $3 trillion reduction [3]. - As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, new job growth in the U.S. continues to decline, significantly impacting low-income groups [3]. - The tightening of short-term liquidity has led to a significant rise in repo rates, affecting various financial market operations, including hedge fund arbitrage costs [3]. Group 2: U.S.-China Relations and Inflation - China's current account surplus continues to reach new highs, with strong export performance that constrains the downward potential of U.S. long-term inflation expectations [4]. - The U.S. yield curve is expected to steepen, with long-term rates remaining high due to persistent inflation expectations, while short-term rates decline as the Fed cuts rates [4]. - If U.S. long-term inflation expectations remain uncontrolled, further Fed rate cuts could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [4]. Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is projected to have a fair value between $4,300 and $4,500, based on a "cup and handle" technical pattern, indicating a high probability of price increase [5]. - Silver has formed a textbook "cup and handle" pattern over 60 years, suggesting significant upside potential, with prices expected to rise alongside gold [6]. - Global liquidity is on the rise, aligning with the Fed's easing policies, which supports the bullish outlook for both gold and silver [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Cycles - The historical relationship between gold and the S&P 500 indicates that gold often serves as a safe-haven asset, with both assets sometimes moving in tandem [8]. - The S&P 500 is currently at a cyclical peak, with historical patterns suggesting that this phase may lead to asset bubbles, particularly in neglected assets and new asset classes like cryptocurrencies [9]. - The current global liquidity environment, combined with the peak of the market cycle, is likely to create a "great bubble," presenting significant investment opportunities [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in January, which is expected to impact liquidity and inflation expectations in the U.S. economy [2][54] - The current short-term liquidity in the U.S. is tightening, with repo rates exceeding the benchmark rate, prompting the Fed to expand its balance sheet and lower rates [3][11] - Forward inflation expectations in the U.S. are unlikely to decrease, and if the Fed persists in lowering rates while inflation expectations remain high, it will weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [4][23] Group 2 - Gold is currently viewed as fairly valued at around $4,500 per ounce, and in the new credit system, gold serves as the "anchor" for all valuations [5][31] - The price target for gold is suggested to be high, with the analogy that "the deeper the cup, the higher the target," indicating that silver has not yet reached its peak [6][30] - The global liquidity conditions are continuously improving, with liquidity indicators leading fundamental changes by 6-12 months, suggesting that asset classes anchored by gold will benefit [7][40] Group 3 - The year 2026 is anticipated to be at the peak of a major cycle for stock market returns, with synchronized easing from global central banks likely to create a significant bubble, presenting an opportunity for investors [8][55] - In a recent interview, it was noted that the market sentiment is improving, with strong performances in technology and industrial metal sectors, indicating signs of cyclical recovery [49][100] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate significantly, with the potential for further gains as the currency has been undervalued in recent years [108][111]

五 2025 年 1 月 11 日 二 〇 二 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡下行的格局，周四有所回暖，周五盘中宽幅震荡后仍整体收阴。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场呈现震荡下行的格局，周四有所回暖，周五盘中宽幅震荡后仍整体收阴。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 市场特征方面，本周国债期货市场呈现短端韧 ...

Group 1 - The New York stock market indices opened higher on January 9, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 237.96 points to close at 49,504.07, a gain of 0.48% [1] - The S&P 500 index increased by 44.82 points to close at 6,966.28, reflecting a rise of 0.65%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 191.331 points to close at 23,671.346, marking an increase of 0.82% [1] - Among the S&P 500 sectors, nine out of eleven sectors saw gains, with the materials and utilities sectors leading with increases of 1.80% and 1.24%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 50,000 non-farm jobs were added in December 2025, below the market consensus of 55,000, with previous months' job additions revised downwards [1] - The unemployment rate for December 2025 was reported at 4.4%, a slight decrease from the revised rate of 4.5% in the previous month [1] Group 3 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2025 was reported at 54, surpassing the previous month's 52.9 and the market consensus of 53.5, marking the highest level since September 2025 [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for one year remained stable at 4.2%, the lowest since January 2025, while the five-year inflation expectation rose from 3.2% to 3.4% [2] Group 4 - D.R. Horton, a major U.S. homebuilder, saw its stock price increase by 7.8% following President Trump's announcement to request Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage bonds to lower interest rates [3]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - The February 2026 gold futures price increased by $58.56, closing at $4,519.26 per ounce, with a rise of 1.31% [1] - Silver futures for March delivery rose by 471.4 cents, closing at $79.858 per ounce, marking a gain of 6.27% [3] - The demand for precious metals is driven by heightened market risk aversion and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to escalate in 2026 [2] Group 2: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 66,000 [1] - U.S. housing starts fell by 4.6% in September 2025, with an annualized rate of 1.306 million units, lower than the anticipated 1.33 million [1] - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2026 was reported at 54, higher than December's final value of 52.9 and above the expected 53.5, although long-term inflation expectations rose slightly from 3.2% to 3.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary consumer confidence index for January 2026 in the U.S. is 54.0, showing a month-over-month increase from December's final value of 52.9, but a year-over-year decrease from January 2025's final value of 71.7 [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The current economic conditions index for January 2026 is 52.4, up from December's final value of 50.4, but down from last January's final value of 75.1 [1] - The consumer expectations index for January 2026 is 55.0, which is higher than December's final value of 54.6, but lower than last January's final value of 69.5 [1] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation remains stable at 4.2%, marking the lowest level since January 2025 [1] - Long-term inflation expectations have slightly increased from 3.2% in December 2025 to 3.4% in January 2026 [1] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - Despite a perceived slight improvement in economic conditions over the past two months, consumer confidence remains nearly 25% lower than the level recorded in January of the previous year [1] - Consumers continue to focus on issues related to high prices and a weak labor market [1] Group 4: Survey Context - Over 90% of the interviews for this survey were conducted before the U.S. raid on Venezuela on January 3, which involved the forcible control and transfer of President Maduro [1]