澳新银行将越南2025年通胀预期从2.8%上调至3.2%。 ...

智通财经7月29日电，前日本央行副总裁中曾宏表示，日本央行必须警惕通胀的上行风险，因食品价格 上涨可能导致通胀预期超出目标。 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent adjustment in the bond market has led to a significant rise in the 10-year government bond yield, which has increased by over 10 basis points to around 1.75% [1][12][51] - Historical patterns suggest that similar rapid increases in interest rates typically occur during periods of policy tightening or improved economic expectations. Although inflation expectations have risen, the primary driver for the current bond yield increase is the unexpected rise in commodity prices [1][12][51] - The report forecasts limited upward movement in bond yields in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.80% in August. Investors are advised to focus on potential rebound opportunities due to the high level of unrealized losses in 10-year bonds [1][12][51] Group 2 - The report discusses the current state of the yield curve, noting that it is relatively flat historically, with limited potential for steepening due to insufficient monetary easing. The report suggests that the yield curve's shape is increasingly influenced by long-term rates [13][54] - Three potential paths for the yield curve to steepen are identified: 1) Central bank announcements of bond purchases, 2) Further easing of funding rates, and 3) Stronger-than-expected economic performance [54][55] - From a portfolio construction perspective, the report recommends an "barbell" strategy, favoring a mix of 2-3 year credit bonds and long-end active bonds, while only considering bullet strategies if there is significant potential for steepening in the yield curve [55][56] Group 3 - The report highlights specific bond selection strategies, indicating that for long-term bonds, attention should be given to bonds such as 230023 and 25T5, while mid-term bonds like 250003, 250405, and 250415 are also recommended [4][19][20] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes a recent increase in credit spreads, suggesting improved holding value for credit bonds. It recommends maintaining a small position in long-term credit bonds, particularly in the 7-8 year range, while monitoring for potential adjustments based on funding conditions and interest rate movements [20][21] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of government bond futures, which have shown a significant decline compared to cash bonds, indicating a favorable hedging value [5][21]

Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under triple pressure, but a short - term small - scale rally may be expected. The bond market sentiment was suppressed due to the triple factors of the "anti - involution" sentiment driving up commodity prices, the continuous improvement of the stock market diverting funds, and the marginal improvement of some macro signals boosting risk appetite. From July 21st to 25th, the bond market underwent a rapid adjustment, with the yields of government bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds of all tenors rising across the board. Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [3][11][83]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News - From January to June this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The total operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and the operating cost was 57.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The operating profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22pct. On July 19th, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. The project has a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan and a total installed capacity of about 60 million kilowatts. On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port will be officially launched. The scope of "zero - tariff" goods will be expanded to about 74% of all commodity tariff items, an increase of nearly 53 percentage points compared to before the closure. On July 23rd (local time), US President Trump stated that he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries in the world. On July 24th (local time), EU member states overwhelmingly passed a decision to impose tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [12][15]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 20th, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 25th, the total box office revenue of domestic movies in the past 7 days was 984.43 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.6% but an increase of 110.2% compared to a month ago. As of July 11th, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 2.471 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%, and the total retail sales were 5.81 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [13][21]. 2.2 Transportation - As of July 20th, the container throughput of ports was 6.642 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. As of July 25th, the CCFI composite index was 1261.4, a year - on - year decrease of 42.2%. The average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 39.519 million person - times, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% but an increase of 1.0% compared to a month ago. As of July 20th, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.67 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% but a decrease of 10.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. The railway freight volume was 80.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 53.431 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [26][28][31]. 2.3 Capacity Utilization - As of July 23rd, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises in China was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3 percentage points. As of July 24th, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. As of July 24th, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 82.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 percentage points, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points. As of July 25th, the average PX capacity utilization rate was 80.8%, and the average PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.7% [34][37]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of July 18th, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 9 sample cities decreased by 16.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. As of July 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.564 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [41][42]. 2.5 Prices - As of July 25th, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% but an increase of 2.4% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.4 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% but an increase of 0.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.1 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% and a decrease of 4.2% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 641 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5% but an increase of 4.7% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.7 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% and a decrease of 2.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3310.4 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and an increase of 7.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 799.6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% but an increase of 10.8% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 15.1 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% but an increase of 9.2% compared to 4 weeks ago [46][49][54]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On July 25th, R001 was 1.55%, up 15.10BP from July 21st; R007 was 1.69%, up 19.60BP from July 21st. DR001 was 1.52%, up 15.65BP from July 21st; DR007 was 1.65%, up 16.22BP from July 21st. Most government bond yields rose. On July 25th, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.39%, 1.59%, 1.73%, and 1.98% respectively, up 4.1BP, 6.0BP, 6.8BP, and 8.7BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.70%, 1.81%, and 2.08% respectively, up 4.6BP, 9.5BP, 9.0BP, and 5.2BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.44%, 1.67%, and 1.83% respectively, up 5.2BP, 6.2BP, and 6.1BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.57%, 1.67%, 1.58%, and 1.70% respectively, up 6.0BP, 5.3BP, 6.0BP, and 5.3BP respectively from July 18th. As of July 25th, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.4%, 1.6%, 4.6%, and 2.8% respectively, down 4BP, up 8BP, down 4BP, and up 6BP respectively from July 18th. On July 25th, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.17 respectively, down 79 and 87 pips respectively from July 18th [56][61][70]. 4. Institutional Behavior - As of July 27th, the net - loss rate of public - offering wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.2%, down 0.77 percentage points from 1.97% at the beginning of the year, and the current percentile of the net - loss rate within the year was 36.7%. Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a slight decline in the past week. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.3 years, a decrease of about 0.17 years compared to the previous week (July 18th), and the weekly data showed the first decline since early May. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend since the beginning of 2025, and has risen rapidly in the past two weeks. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.5 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.6 years, an increase of about 0.3 years compared to the previous week (July 18th) [77][80][81]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. In 2025, there is no trend - based bond market rally, so it is advisable to take profits in a timely manner. Due to the rapid adjustment of the bond market and the rapid reduction of the duration of bond funds, it is believed that the bond market risks may have been mitigated. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 0.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 1.71%. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, while the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectations of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weak in gold and strong in silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. The CFTC net long position in silver and the iShare Silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3338.50 per ounce, down $32.80 (-0.97%); London gold was at $3343.50 per ounce, down $22.35 (-0.66%); Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 774.78 yuan per gram, down 2.54 yuan (-0.33%); Gold T + D closed at 771.58 yuan per gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.26%) [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 489,423 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 46,279 lots (10.44%); Shanghai Gold's main contract position was 209,675 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,176 lots (-1.03%); Gold TD's position was 207,044 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,086 lots (-1.00%). LBMA's gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%); Shanghai Gold's inventory was 18 tons, up 0.28 tons (1.57%) [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhongcai Futures ranked first with 36,411 lots, an increase of 1,769 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 3,733 lots, an increase of 225 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, down $0.96 (-2.44%); London silver was at $38.74 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.74%); Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 9,212 yuan per kilogram, down 180 yuan (-1.92%); Silver T + D closed at 9,186 yuan per kilogram, down 186 yuan (-1.98%) [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver's position was 173,679 lots (5000 ounces per lot), an increase of 2,205 lots (1.29%); Shanghai Silver's main contract position was 5,976,315 lots (kilograms per lot), down 786,090 lots (-11.62%); Silver TD's position was 3,447,542 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 67,342 lots (1.99%). The total visible inventory was 41,850 tons, an increase of 54 tons (0.13%) [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, CITIC Futures ranked first with 40,772 lots, an increase of 2,153 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 10,982 lots, a decrease of 1,593 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.40%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $6,708.939 billion, down $0.1672 billion (-0.00%); M2's year - on - year growth rate was 4.54%, up 0.37 percentage points [7] - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points; the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%, unchanged; the year - on - year core CPI was 2.90%, up 0.10 percentage points; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the year - on - year core PCE price index was 2.68%, up 0.10 percentage points [8][9] - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was - 0.50%, down 2.90 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.10%, down 0.10 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 147,000, an increase of 3,000 [9] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 132.88, unchanged; the VIX index was 15.22, up 0.29 (1.94%); the CRB commodity index was 302.25, down 2.12 (-0.70%); the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1628, down 0.0184 (-0.26%) [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the federal funds rate will be in the range of 300 - 325 basis points in the meeting on July 30, 2025, is 3.1%, and the probability of 325 - 350 basis points is 96.9%. As time goes on, the probability distribution of the federal funds rate in different ranges shows certain changes [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies affect commodity prices and inflation expectations, leading to significant adjustments in the bond market. Credit bond yields rise with interest rates, and most credit spreads widen, especially for secondary perpetual bonds [3]. - It's too early to talk about negative feedback, with a very low probability. The market's ability to respond has improved, and there has been no change in macro - expectations. Moreover, bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent negative feedback [4][6]. - The asset shortage pattern remains unchanged and is intensifying. Interest rates may have short - term adjustments but not continuous and significant ones. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Market Review: Sharp Correction, Widening Spreads of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 1.1 Market Performance - The credit bond market had a sharp correction this week, with credit spreads widening. The stock market strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Yields of medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds rose more than 10bp, with a 14.5bp decline in 10Y secondary perpetual bonds. Credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds widened more, while those of some medium - and long - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds slightly narrowed [25]. 1.2 Insurance Continues to Allocate, Funds Sell Massively - Insurance companies continued to strongly allocate credit bonds, with a net purchase of 125.63 billion yuan this week, a 38.7% increase from the previous week. The net purchase of ultra - long - term credit bonds over 5 years was 6.75 billion yuan, with a similar increase compared to the previous week [40]. - Funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, reaching 22.578 billion yuan. The net sales of bonds within 5Y were 12.738 billion yuan, and those over 5Y were 7.474 billion yuan [40]. 1.3 Low - Rating Transaction Proportion Declines - The proportion of transactions with a remaining maturity of over 3 years for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds was 30%, 29%, and 72% respectively, remaining at a high level. The proportion of low - rating transactions decreased, with a 1 - percentage - point decline in urban investment bonds with AA(2) and below, a 1 - percentage - point decline in industrial bonds with AA and below, and a 3 - percentage - point decline in secondary perpetual bonds with AA and below [49][53]. 2 Market Outlook: Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities 2.1 Redemption is Controllable, Seize Trading Opportunities - The market adjusted due to the impact of anti - involution policies on commodity prices and inflation expectations. Indicators such as the term structure of interest rate swaps showed a change in inflation expectations [57][61]. - There is no need to worry about negative feedback because the market's response ability has improved, and bank wealth management's focus on liquidity can prevent it. The asset shortage pattern persists, and interest rates are unlikely to have continuous and significant adjustments. Credit spreads are likely to be volatile, and investors should seize phased trading opportunities [4][7]. 2.2 Science and Technology Innovation Bonds Continue to Contribute Net Financing - In July, non - financial credit bond financing was good, with a net financing of 347.9 billion yuan, exceeding the levels of July in the previous two years [93]. 3 What to Buy in Credit? 3.1 Focus on High - Grade Secondary Perpetual Bonds for Trading, Weak - Quality Urban Investment Bonds for Coupon - For short - term secondary perpetual bonds, the price - to - value ratio is positive, while for medium - and long - term ones, it is negative. It is recommended that high - grade trading strategies focus on secondary perpetual bonds, and low - grade coupon strategies focus on urban investment bonds. The price - to - value ratio of short - term AAA secondary capital bonds to medium - term notes remains positive, and that of long - term ones fluctuates around 0 [100]. - The price - to - value ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes is positive, and that of long - term low - grade ones has rebounded rapidly, reaching the historical central level. Urban investment bonds still have an advantage in terms of bond selection scope [102]. 3.2 General Credit Coupon is More Advantageous - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 19.8%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 10.8%, and that of secondary perpetual bonds is 6.8%. From the perspective of coupon bond selection, general credit has a wider bond selection space [106]. 3.3 First - Level Issuance Statistics - No specific content provided in the output for further summary 3.4 Second - Level Valuation Change Details - No specific content provided in the output for further summary

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After last week's unexpected adjustment, bond market interest rates may reach their peak. The main reasons for the adjustment are tight liquidity, increased inflation expectations due to "anti - involution", and the impact of the rising equity market on the bond market [7][14]. - The tight liquidity is not a cause - effect relationship with the bond market adjustment but a synchronous one. The central bank's increased MLF and reverse - repo operations on Friday indicate its intention to break the negative feedback, so the tight liquidity is not expected to last [7][14]. - The inflation expectations increase caused by "anti - involution" will not last long. It is difficult for the PPI to turn positive this year, and the market expectations will gradually subside, reducing the impact on the bond market [7][14]. - The equity market will continue to rise, but the stock market's rise is not a sufficient condition for interest rate hikes. The continued rise of the equity market will mainly be driven by the improved expectations of national governance and technological - led economic transformation, with a limited impact on the bond market. A scenario of both rising stocks and bonds is still possible [7][15]. - For highly liquid interest - rate bonds, it is recommended to gradually participate, such as 10 - year treasury bonds with yields above 1.7% and 30 - year treasury bonds with yields above 1.95%. For less liquid credit bonds, there may still be a risk of catch - up decline, so it is advisable to wait and see. For convertible bonds, although the valuation is expensive, their investment value driven by the equity market is still optimistic [7][19]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Interest Rate Viewpoint: Re - examining the Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - Interest Rates May Reach the Peak - The reasons for the bond market adjustment include tight liquidity, increased inflation expectations due to "anti - involution", and the impact of the rising equity market. However, these factors are not expected to have a long - term negative impact on the bond market [7][14]. - The tight liquidity is part of a negative feedback loop but the central bank's actions suggest it will not persist. The inflation expectations increase from "anti - involution" will fade as PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year. The equity market's rise does not necessarily lead to a bond market decline, and a dual - bull market for stocks and bonds is possible [7][15]. 3.2 This Week's Key Points in the Fixed - Income Market: The Fed's Interest Rate Decision Will Be Announced 3.2.1 Intensive Release of Overseas Data - This week, China will release July PMI, the US will release July non - farm payrolls, July ADP, and the Fed's interest rate decision, and the Eurozone will release the June unemployment rate [21]. 3.2.2 The Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds This Week Continues to Remain at a Relatively High Level - This week, it is expected to issue 677.2 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, which is at a relatively high level compared to the same period [22]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds: Bond Funds Have Experienced Continuous Redemptions 3.3.1 Slight Net Withdrawal of Reverse Repos - The central bank's open - market operations maintained a neutral net injection. The reverse - repo issuance volume first decreased and then increased, with a total of 1.6563 trillion yuan, and a slight net withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan. The MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan this month [31][32]. - The capital interest rate increased from a low level, and the trading volume showed an obvious reverse change. The weekly average of the repurchase trading volume was around 7.7 trillion yuan, and the overnight ratio averaged 88.5%. The overnight and 7 - day DR and R interest rates all increased [32]. - A large number of certificates of deposit (CDs) matured, resulting in a significantly negative net financing. The secondary market yield of CDs increased rapidly, driving up the primary issuance rate [39]. 3.3.2 Obvious Upward Adjustment of Interest Rates - At the beginning of the week, with loose liquidity but hot sentiment in the stock and commodity markets, there was a large amount of profit - taking funds in the bond market, and the long - end interest rates adjusted slightly. In the second half of the week, as the central bank's injection weakened, the liquidity pressure increased sharply, and bond funds faced a large number of redemptions, causing interest rates to continue to rise. On July 27, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds all increased compared to the previous week [55]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: The Improvement in the Operating Rate Did Not Persist - On the production side, the operating rates were divided. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates remained flat, while the semi - steel tire and petroleum asphalt operating rates declined. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude steel production in mid - July remained negative [66]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales remained high. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area continued to be negative. The SCFI and CCFI composite indexes both decreased [66]. - On the price side, the crude oil price decreased, the copper and aluminum prices increased, the coal prices were divided, the coking coal price rose rapidly, and the power coal price remained flat. The building materials composite index increased, the cement index decreased, and the glass index increased significantly. The production and inventory of rebar increased, and the futures price increased. The prices of vegetables and pork increased, while the price of fruits decreased [67].

新华财经北京7月28日电（刘润榕）人民银行28日开展4958亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%， 与此前持平；鉴于当日有1707亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放3251亿元。 上周（7月21日-25日）央行公开市场全口径合计实现净投放1295亿元。此外，上周有1200亿国库现金定 存到期，周三财政部开展1000亿元1M国库现金定存操作，中标利率1.78%，较前值下行30BP。 资金面可谓经历"过山车"行情。周初税期已过、跨月未至，资金面如期转松，隔夜利率重回1.40%附 近，然而伴随央行税期逆回购投放悉数回笼，资金面逐步收敛，不过绝对水平并不算太高，21-23日隔 夜利率依然分布在OMO利率附近，7天资金价格也基本稳定在1.50%以下。24日资金面"超预期"收敛， 隔夜利率迅速攀升至1.65%以上，7天资金也迅速提价上行近10BP；与此同时，央行公告7月MLF续做 4000亿元，全月净投放1000亿元，7月中长期资金累计净投放3000亿元。25日，资金面压力略有缓和， 隔夜利率回落，R001、DR001分别下行14、13BP，分别收至1.55%、1.52%。不过，7天资金可支持跨 月，7天资金 ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：江钰涵 从债券市场看，泓德基金表示，上周利率债收益率、信用债收益率均全线上行。一级方面，上周利率债 净供给增加，主因地方政府债净供给较大。二级方面，上周资金面波动加大，资金利率走高，叠加雅江 水电站开工及十大行业稳增长及"反内卷"带来通胀预期，权益、商品表现亮眼，风险偏好提升，债基遭 遇赎回。此外，前期市场拥挤度高，利率债基久期创新高，超长债、非活跃券和非活跃期限利差压缩至 极低位置，交易所科创债火爆，投资者一致预期过度统一，对于边际利空较为敏感，进一步放大市场波 动。 风险提示：本材料中的观点和判断仅供参考，不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议或实际的 投资结果。本基金管理人不保证其中的观点和判断不会发生任何调整或变更，且不就材料中的内容对最 终操作建议做出任何担保。投资有风险，入市须谨慎。基金产品由基金管理公司发行与管理，销售机构 不承担产品的投资、兑付风险管理责任。 上周国内权益市场延续强势，万得全A周涨幅为2.21%，收盘点位已经超过去年10月8日的高点，同时成 交量有所放大，日均成交额达到1.8万亿元附近；伴随着7月19日总投资额高达1.2万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of Malaysia has revised down its economic growth forecast for 2025, now expecting a growth rate between 4% and 4.8%, lower than the previous estimate of 4.5% to 5.5% [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The Malaysian central bank has adjusted its 2025 economic growth forecast to a range of 4% to 4.8% [1] - This revision reflects a decrease from the earlier forecast of 4.5% to 5.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation forecast for 2025 has been lowered from the original range of 2% to 3.5% to a new range of 1.5% to 2.3% [1] - The adjustment in inflation expectations is primarily attributed to a slowdown in cost and demand outlook [1]