最近这段时间，价格波动最大的资产就是黄金了。 5 月 15 日盘中， 金价大幅跳水。 现货黄金最低下探至 3120 美元 / 盎司，日内跌幅一度接近 1.8% ； COMEX 黄金期货一度跌超 2% ，最低触及 3123 美元 / 盎司。随后金价出现反弹。 要知道，上个月黄金涨得最猛的时候，现货黄金最高一度涨到了 3500 美元 / 盎司。短短两周时间，黄金 价格就跌了将近 400 美元 / 盎司，妥妥的大跳水行情。 现在的黄金价格，相当于是把对等关税短暂实施期间的涨幅全部跌了回去。 那在关税顺利协商、不确定性告一段落之后，黄金价格是不是就没有了支撑涨到头了呢？ 所以黄金的牛市，不是开始于2025年，只是因为最近懂王的关税，涨得太疯狂，才让市场开始看到黄金 夸张的价格走向。 对于接下来黄金价格的走势，我们的观点也很明确： 为什么黄金会在2022年下半年之后持续上涨？ 黄金的调整，只是短期的； 有几个关键的推动因素。 黄金价格，接下来还会有长牛行情。 首先我们要知道这一轮黄金行情不是开始于今年，而是开始于 2022 年 7 月之后。 从 2022 年下半年开始，黄金的行情启动， 从1900美元 / 盎司涨到了如 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The global economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold demand, with short-term price expectations in the range of $3200-$3500 per ounce [2][1] - Recent fluctuations in the gold market have seen London gold prices oscillating between $3200 and $3400 per ounce, influenced by U.S. trade policies and ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and EU [1] - Investment demand for gold remains strong despite high prices suppressing jewelry consumption, with April's outflow from the Shanghai Gold Exchange increasing by 27 tons to 153 tons [1] Group 2: Platinum Market Insights - Short-term platinum price expectations are projected to fluctuate between $1000 and $1100 per ounce, with recent prices having risen above $1100 before a slight retreat [3][2] - The platinum market is experiencing a three-year supply-demand imbalance, with visible inventories being continuously depleted, and potential for sustained strength if the fundamentals remain supportive [2] - China's platinum market demand is expected to remain robust, with projections indicating a recovery in platinum jewelry processing by Q4 2024 and a potential 50% expansion in processing volume by Q1 2025 [2]

Global Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists predict that global economic growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, with the full effects expected to manifest in the second half of this year [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that inflation caused by tariffs will likely not persist for long, as the U.S. economy is entering a weaker state compared to the inflationary periods of 2021 and 2022 [1] - John Hardy from Saxo Bank warns that the U.S. Treasury should monitor risks in the Japanese government bond market, as Japan's debt situation is becoming more severe [1] Japanese Yen and Bond Market - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue, despite recent declines in long-term Japanese government bond yields [2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicate that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to address the supply-demand imbalance in the long-term bond market, continuing to reduce bond purchases until March 2026 [3] - State Street Global Advisors describes the challenges in the Japanese bond market as "technical" rather than "structural," suggesting that these issues can be resolved through adjustments in issuance [4] Chinese Aviation and Energy Sector - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the significant drop in oil prices this year is expected to improve the cost structure for airlines, with a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [5] - CICC also highlights opportunities in the diesel generator sets and large-bore engines used in data centers, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure [6] Consumer Goods and Pet Industry - Huatai Securities emphasizes the potential for recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, as consumption trends improve [7] - Huaxi Securities projects that China's pet industry could reach a market size of 478.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2024 to 2030 [8] Investment Strategies in Materials and Energy - CITIC Securities outlines three investment themes in the materials sector, focusing on policy-driven themes, high certainty growth from industry prosperity, and innovation in products and technologies [9] - The same report suggests that the second half of 2025 will see a complex price trend in commodities due to U.S. tariff policies, recommending a focus on "hedging" and "supply disruptions" [10] Economic Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a potential bull market for Chinese equity assets starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles across major economies [11] - The firm also predicts that the economic landscape will exhibit characteristics of strong production, recovering investment, stable consumption, and resilient exports [12]

尽管特朗普表示美国将继续在G20中发挥重要作用，但在一些关键问题上，美国的政策和立场仍可能与其 他国家存在分歧。例如，在贸易政策方面，美国近年来采取了一系列单边主义和保护主义措施，引发了与 其他国家的贸易摩擦。这些分歧和矛盾如果得不到妥善解决，可能会对G20峰会的顺利进行和合作成果产 生负面影响。 DLSM外汇平台据悉，南非总统拉马福萨日前宣布，美国总统特朗普同意美方参加今年11月在南非约翰内 斯堡举行的二十国集团（G20）领导人峰会。这一消息在国际社会引起了广泛关注。拉马福萨在本月19日 至22日对美国进行工作访问期间，与特朗普在白宫举行了会谈，并在26日的每周例行简报中透露了这一重 要信息。特朗普表示，美国将继续在G20中发挥重要作用，包括参加今年晚些时候在南非举行的G20领导 人峰会，届时南非将把G20轮值主席国身份移交给美国。 从积极的方面来看，美国参加南非G20峰会是一个重要的信号，表明美国愿意继续在国际经济合作中发挥 积极作用。G20作为全球最重要的经济合作论坛之一，涵盖了世界上主要经济体，其决策和倡议对全球经 济的发展具有重要影响。美国的参与将有助于加强G20内部的沟通与协调，推动多边合作机制的 ...

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 78,510.00 CNY per ton, with a premium of 640.00 CNY over the futures main price of 77,870.00 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market shows a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 77,870.00 CNY per ton, down 0.15%, with a trading volume of 73,407 lots on May 28 [2] Price Overview - The price list for 1 electrolytic copper shows various quotes: - Shanghai Huatuo: 78,510 CNY/ton - Guangdong Nanshu: 78,500 CNY/ton - Shanghai YS: 78,495 CNY/ton [2] Market Capacity and Inventory - In 2025, 29 major domestic copper strip and sheet processing enterprises have a combined effective capacity of 2.034 million tons, accounting for 48.7% of the national effective total capacity [3] - As of May 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a copper futures warehouse receipt of 34,861 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, with a cumulative reduction of 6,357 tons over the past week, representing a decrease of 15.42% [3] Market Analysis - The market is facing price suppression due to global economic weakness expectations driven by tariff policies, alongside a backdrop of a mild recession and high interest rates in the U.S. [4] - Support for prices is expected from tight copper raw material supply and potential new restocking demand following tariff easing [4] - Recent trends show a continuous reduction in LME and SHFE inventories, indicating that spot premiums and backwardation structures may persist for an extended period, supporting a strong price fluctuation [4]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive rate cut since August 2024, totaling a reduction of 225 basis points [1] - The RBNZ's decision reflects increasing concerns about the economic outlook, with predictions indicating that the cash rate will drop to 2.92% by Q4 2025 and further to 2.85% by Q1 2026, signaling a deeper easing cycle than previously forecasted [1][2] - The central bank has warned that international economic developments, particularly uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, are expected to suppress demand in New Zealand and slow global economic growth [1] Group 2 - Inflation in New Zealand has slowed, currently at 2.5%, within the target range of 1%-3%, but is expected to rise to 2.7% in Q3 [2] - The RBNZ is prepared to respond to both domestic and international developments to maintain medium-term price stability, with market expectations suggesting at least one more rate cut this year [2] - The RBNZ was a pioneer in tightening monetary policy during the pandemic, having raised rates by 525 basis points from October 2021 to September 2023, but high borrowing costs have significantly suppressed demand, leading to an economic recession last year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant uncertainty, as highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Chair, Hawkesby [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The trajectory of the official cash rate reflects that global inflation is not as high as previously thought [1] - Future interest rate decisions will be contingent on evolving circumstances [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：关税政策将如何影响全球经济和日本经济仍然不明朗。 ...

Group 1 - The global financial system is at a critical turning point, necessitating reforms to the Bretton Woods framework due to changes in the international economic structure and the rise of emerging economies like China, Brazil, and South Africa [2][3][6] - Emerging economies express dissatisfaction with their lack of representation in existing international financial institutions, prompting calls for a rebalancing of the Bretton Woods system to ensure broader representation [3][6] - China is increasingly seen as a key player in global financial stability, with initiatives like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the BRICS New Development Bank reflecting its growing influence [6][9] Group 2 - The current global economic landscape is characterized by multiple crises, including the pandemic, wars, and trade tensions, leading to rising inflation and necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][11] - The U.S. is perceived as attempting to rebalance the global economy, which could have profound implications for the dollar, yuan, and U.S.-China relations [8][9] - The need for a new set of rules in a multipolar world is emphasized, as the existing international order is being challenged by the U.S.'s shift from a rule-maker to a disruptor [7][12] Group 3 - The European perspective highlights the need to restore industrial competitiveness in light of the U.S.'s current behavior, which poses challenges to Europe's stability and reliance on American leadership post-World War II [12][13] - The shift in U.S. policy raises questions for Europe regarding trust in the U.S. as a stable partner and the necessity for Europe to invest in strategic autonomy [12][13] - The historical context of peace and prosperity in Europe is being threatened by current geopolitical tensions, necessitating a reconsideration of defense spending and identity [13]

周二(5月27日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3342.46美元/盎司，最高触及3350.03美元/盎司，最低触及3324.34美元/盎司，截止当前金价 报3325.49美元/盎司，涨幅-0.50%。黄金ETF基金（159937）盘中涨幅-0.31%，换手率1.54%，成交金额4.41亿。（数据来源：Wind） 北京首创期货指出，近期鲍威尔提出调整美联储政策框架理论上对金价有一定利空，但今年美联储对金价的影响力并不大。特朗普大而美法案通过，短期而 言，减缓了市场对经济的担忧，利空金价，但长期而言，美国杠杆率将进一步上升，长线视角利多金价。国际货币制度的松动，央行增持黄金，全球地缘局 势复杂，全球经济下行压力增加，是推动金价长期上行的主要因素。从基本面角度看，中长期变量没有发生根本性改变，从技术面角度看，黄金的中长期涨 势也没有任何改变。短期行情进入高位整理，回踩60日均线后仍是做多机会。 黄金ETF基金（159937）通过投资上海黄金交易所AU9999现货合约，实现与国内金价的高度拟合，具有低门槛、低成本和交易形式多样化等特点，支持T+0 交易。长期来看，黄金中枢随信用货币规模而稳定抬升，以及 ...