Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolution of the international monetary order and the opportunities it presents for China, as articulated by Dr. Miao Yanliang, a senior strategist at CICC [2][12]. Research Origin - The interest in the international monetary system began in 2005 during a class at Princeton University, where Dr. Miao was encouraged by Professor Peter Kenen, a leading expert in the field [4]. - Dr. Miao's career has been centered around the international monetary order, having worked at the International Monetary Fund and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange [4]. Research Development - In early 2023, Dr. Miao completed a book titled "The Game of Confidence: Modern Central Banks and Macroeconomics," which received positive feedback, prompting him to consider writing another book titled "The Order of Money" [5]. - The rapid changes in the global landscape, including the AI revolution and shifts in U.S. trade policy, have created a unique opportunity for research on the international monetary order [5][14]. Key Observations - In June 2025, Dr. Miao presented at a strategy meeting, stating that the forces driving the reconstruction of the international monetary order are significantly stronger than the basic fundamentals of any single country or market [6]. - He noted that the restructuring is moving towards fragmentation and diversification, with capital returning to its home countries, as evidenced by the decline in Chinese holdings of U.S. stocks from $383 billion to $329 billion [7]. Research Methodology - Dr. Miao's insights are based on extensive research and validation through interactions with central banks and investment institutions, including participation in high-level conferences [9][10]. - He emphasizes the importance of cross-verifying perspectives from academic, market, and policy viewpoints to strengthen his research conclusions [11]. Conclusion on Currency Competition - The article concludes that the highest form of competition among nations is currency competition, which relies on trust supported by economic, financial, institutional, and technological factors [13]. - The article highlights the significance of advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi, especially during strategic windows of opportunity [14][16]. Research Series Overview - The article lists a series of research reports focusing on various aspects of the international monetary system, including the role of the Renminbi, the dynamics of gold pricing, and the implications of de-dollarization [20].

当地时间2月13日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数涨0.1%报49500.93点，标普500指数涨 0.05%报6836.17点，纳斯达克指数跌0.22%报22546.67点。本周，道琼斯工业指数跌1.23%，标普500指 数跌1.39%，纳斯达克指数跌2.1%。 美国CPI数据公布后，市场对美联储降息的概率预期上升，美元指数回落，支撑贵金属资产吸引力。 COMEX黄金期货涨2.33%报5063.80美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨2.10%报77.27美元/盎司。 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨0.25%报24914.88点，法国CAC40指数跌0.35%报8311.74 点，英国富时100指数涨0.42%报10446.35点。本周，德国DAX指数涨0.78%，法国CAC40指数涨 0.46%，英国富时100指数涨0.74%。 中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.10%，万得中概科技龙头指数涨0.15%。热门中概股方 面，再鼎医药涨超6%，腾讯音乐涨逾4%，百胜中国涨超3%，涂鸦智能涨逾2%，禾赛科技涨超2%，网 易涨逾2%。跌幅方面，晶科能源跌近3%，阿特斯太阳能跌超2%，金山 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices closed mixed on February 13, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.1% at 49,500.93 points, the S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6,836.17 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 22,546.67 points. For the week, the Dow Jones fell 1.23%, the S&P 500 fell 1.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1% [1] - The U.S. CPI data released showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in January, down from 2.7% in December, and below the economist's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [4] - Following the CPI report, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year, with a 50% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year [4][5] Group 2 - International precious metal futures saw widespread gains, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.33% to $5,063.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.10% to $77.27 per ounce [2][7] - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and a decline in the U.S. dollar index, enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals [8] - The oil market showed mixed results, with U.S. crude oil futures down 0.05% at $62.81 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures up 0.24% at $67.68 per barrel [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that EGO.N's stock price increased by 5.29% on February 13, 2026, driven by a rebound in international gold prices and overall positive sentiment in the gold sector [1][2]. Group 2 - On February 13, international gold prices rebounded significantly after a sharp decline the previous day, with spot gold rising 1.01% to $4,973.82 per ounce, following a drop of over 3% on February 12 [2]. - The gold mining sector experienced a collective increase, with the U.S. gold sector rising by 3.52% on the same day, positively impacting EGO.N as a constituent stock [2][3]. Group 3 - EGO.N closed at $47.54 with a trading volume of approximately $111 million, outperforming the average sector performance [3]. - Other gold mining stocks, such as AUMN.PS, also saw gains, with a 4.69% increase, indicating a broad rally within the sector [3]. Group 4 - Market analysis suggests that the rebound in gold prices is supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and sustained demand for gold from global central banks, with key factors like de-dollarization and central bank purchases remaining intact [4].

Group 1 - Trump is set to visit China in the first week of April, with his team preparing to ensure a smooth meeting and stabilize the situation [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra revealed that high-level U.S. officials recently visited China for in-depth discussions, indicating a focus on economic issues ahead of Trump's visit [1] - The absence of Secretary of State Rubio, who is on a sanctions list, suggests that the discussions will primarily revolve around economic matters rather than broader diplomatic issues [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is increasing its debt through new bond issuance, leading to a growing debt burden that now exceeds $38 trillion, over 125% of GDP, raising concerns about repayment capacity [3] - China is actively reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds while increasing its gold reserves to 2,308 tons, using gold as a hedge against the credit risk of the dollar [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East and South China Sea, are driving China to favor gold over dollar assets as a safer investment [5][6] Group 3 - The independence of the Federal Reserve was threatened during Trump's presidency, with potential changes in leadership that may lead to more accommodative monetary policies, increasing dollar liquidity volatility [5] - China's strategy of selling U.S. bonds and converting proceeds into gold is a method of asset exchange aimed at enhancing financial security without causing market panic [6] - To support the internationalization of the renminbi, China is building a solid value foundation through increased gold reserves and establishing mechanisms for gold trading in renminbi, thereby avoiding the dollar system [8]

美债崩盘前夜？中国甩卖6826亿"废纸"换黄金，美财长急喊：绝不能断链！ 美元变"废纸"？38万亿债务压顶 美国国债总额突破38万亿美元，啥概念？每年光利息就超1.2万亿美元，比军费还多！穆迪、惠誉接连下调信用评级，美联储政策跟过山车似 的，美债价格动不动就跳水。最要命的是，美国把美元当"武器"——今天制裁俄罗斯，明天威胁伊朗，冻结资产成了家常便饭。谁还敢把鸡蛋 全放一个篮子里？ 暗度陈仓：黄金才是真爱 卖了美债的钱去哪了？黄金！央行连续18个月增持黄金，2026年1月末储备达7419万盎司。更狠的是，咱们把美元借给印尼、阿根廷这些"穷兄 弟"，让他们还美债，转头用人民币跟中国做生意。这招"借刀杀人"玩得溜——既减持了美债，又推了人民币国际化，还帮了小伙伴，一箭三 雕！ 全球跟风：美元霸权日落西山 前言 "美国家庭背了28万美元债！"这数字够吓人不？更吓人的是，中国手里的美债已经腰斩，跌到了17年最低点！美元这艘大船眼看要沉，美国财 长贝森特终于慌了，公开喊话"中美绝不能脱钩"。这哪是谈感情？分明是债主上门讨债，欠钱的先急眼了！咱今天不整虚的，直接扒开这层"金 融底裤"，看看这场全球最大的"资产大逃亡"到底咋 ...

中国外汇管理机构在2026年初下发指导意见，让银行根据市场波动调整资产配置，逐步降低美国国债比 例。这不是突然之举，早从2013年峰值1.3万亿美元开始，中国就持续减持，到现在只剩6826亿美元， 创下2008年9月以来最低。 减持的钱转向黄金储备和关键物资采购，分散风险。银行操作时避免大动作，通过到期不续和小额交易 保持平稳。美债市场闻风而动，价格小幅下滑，收益率上扬，美元指数短期承压。 美国债务规模已超38万亿美元，年利息支出1.2万亿美元，比军费还高。信用评级遭穆迪和惠誉下调， 美联储政策摇摆不定，政治分歧让债券波动加剧。2025年，美债多次单日大跌。中国还通过与印尼、阿 根廷等国合作，提供美元贷款帮他们还债，这些国家转而用人民币结算贸易，逐步还款。这样，中国间 接减持美债，还推动人民币在跨境使用。 全球美债持有者中，前八大有四家跟着减持，印度和沙特2025年下半年分别卖了200亿和150亿。非传统 渠道如亚投行融资，也帮中国调整仓位。减持资金大部买黄金，2026年1月末储备增至7419万盎司，连 续15个月增长。上海黄金交易所活跃，进口超1200吨。2022年俄罗斯资产冻结后，中国加速多元化，美 债占 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is divided into two camps regarding gold prices: the bearish camp, which holds a pessimistic view and advises against entering the market, and the bullish camp, which is optimistic about long-term trends and sees current adjustments as buying opportunities [1]. Group 1: Bearish Perspective - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, indicating a severe valuation bubble, and a correction is inevitable [2]. - If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and delays rate cuts, the strength of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will increase, significantly reducing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts are likely to ease, leading to a gradual decline in risk aversion, which will remove core support factors for gold prices [2]. - Institutions have already taken profits, while retail investors are chasing prices at high levels, making entry at this point akin to catching a falling knife [2]. Group 2: Bullish Perspective - The trend of de-dollarization globally is irreversible, with central banks continuing to purchase large amounts of gold, providing solid long-term demand support [2]. - The weakening of the dollar's credibility and the restructuring of the monetary system will highlight gold's monetary attributes [2]. - Persistent global inflation and geopolitical risks ensure that the rigid demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will not disappear [2]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a short-term fluctuation rather than a trend reversal, with the long-term price center expected to continue rising [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The upcoming U.S. CPI data will be crucial in determining short-term trends; if inflation remains high, gold prices may continue to face pressure, seeking the next support level around $4,800 [4]. - For ordinary investors, it is advisable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize and for gold prices to regain the $5,000 level before considering entry [4].

在当前的市场博弈中，黄金的角色正在发生深刻演变。苏克登金融的分析师表示，黄金已从传统的抗通 胀工具转化为"宏观不信任"的表达方式。这种转变主要源于全球地缘局势的复杂化以及对货币政策独立 性的长期担忧。这种背景赋予了黄金极高的战略价值，使得即便在投机资金占据主导的短期行情中，金 价依然能够获得坚实支撑。FXGT 援引数据显示，尽管投机性调仓可能带来阶段性下行压力，但第一季 度金价围绕5000美元波动的轴心地位已基本确立。 对于白银市场，其不稳定性将显著高于黄金。由于白银具有更高的贝塔系数，且对资金流向极为敏感， 其价格区间可能在70美元至100美元之间剧烈宽幅震荡。苏克登分析表示，高企的价格往往会抑制生产 者的套期保值操作，从而进一步放大了投资需求对价格的波动杠杆。FXGT 认为，在"去美元化"主题持 续发酵的当下，白银虽能共享黄金的宏观红利，但其走势的波动率显然更具挑战性。 关于后市的催化剂，美国经济的潜在衰退风险是不可忽视的定时炸弹。虽然最新数据显示1月新增就业 人数达130000人，远超预期的66000人，但分析指出就业增长放缓的趋势已延续至2025年。苏克登分析 表示，目前萨姆规则指标已升至0.35，一 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - Since August 2023, precious metals and industrial metals have shown significant price increases, with gold rising by 45.6% and silver by 103% since August 2025, while COMEX copper has increased by 15% since September 2023, raising expectations for oil price increases[2] - Historical analysis of commodity cycles from 1992-2021 indicates a valid transmission logic from precious metals to industrial metals and then to oil, driven by monetary easing and economic recovery[2] - The current commodity cycle differs from previous ones, with precious metal price increases occurring ahead of monetary easing, driven by de-dollarization expectations and geopolitical risks[2] Group 2: Key Support Factors for Oil Prices - Two main support factors for oil prices are identified: the desire of oil-producing countries to raise prices and geopolitical premiums due to global political and economic challenges[2] - The U.S. is seen as a key player in oil price dynamics, with potential motivations to raise prices post-midterm elections, as inflation concerns may ease[2] - OPEC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, are also inclined to raise oil prices to ensure fiscal stability, especially under increasing financial pressures[2] Group 3: Investment Insights - Brent crude oil prices are projected to rise to the range of $75-80 per barrel within the year, driven by the dual logic of rising expectations and geopolitical premiums[3] - Upstream resource sectors are expected to directly benefit from rising oil prices, enhancing profitability and dividend stability, making high-dividend stocks more attractive in a declining interest rate environment[3] - Oil price increases are likely to boost capital expenditures in oil companies, creating lagging benefits for oil service and high-end equipment sectors[3]