（来源：铝途） 来源：铝途 （来源：铝途） 来源：铝途 12月第一周铝价呈现暴涨模式，从11月28日铝均价21440上涨至22080．整体上涨了640元/吨左右，创下了近三年内历史最高，突破铝价2.2万高位。 本周A00铝锭价格强势上行，核心逻辑聚焦供需紧平衡与宏观利好的共振发力。供给端受4500万吨产能红线刚性约束，运行产能逼近满负荷，叠加铝水直 供比例高、可交割铝锭稀缺，供应完全丧失弹性；需求端新能源汽车、光伏储能等新兴领域需求爆发，叠加年末备货潮，库存低位格局进一步托底价格。 而美联储降息预期升温、美元走弱的宏观环境，为铝价上行提供了关键催化，多重核心因素共同推动价格突破近期高点。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：戴明 SF006 12月第一周铝价呈现暴涨模式，从11月28日铝均价21440上涨至22080．整体上涨了640元/吨左右，创下了近三年内历史最高，突破铝价2.2万高位。 本周A00铝锭价格强势上行，核心逻辑聚焦供需紧平衡与宏观利好的共振发力。供给端受4500万吨产能红线刚性约束，运行产能逼近满负荷，叠加铝水直 供比例高、可交割铝锭稀缺，供应完全丧失弹性；需求端新能源汽车、光 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council reported that gold had an outstanding performance in 2025, achieving over 50 historical highs and a cumulative increase of over 60%, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and sustained upward momentum in gold prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have significantly contributed to gold's price increase, with the weakening dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields being key drivers [5][7]. - The demand for gold from investors and central banks has increased as they seek asset diversification and stability amid market volatility [2][5]. - The contribution of geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar accounted for approximately 16 percentage points of gold's price increase, highlighting the impact of political and macroeconomic uncertainties since Trump's second term [7][10]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 suggests that while the current trends in the gold market may continue, significant geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data divergence will maintain high levels of uncertainty [1][13]. - If economic growth slows and interest rates decline further, gold may experience moderate price increases; conversely, if geopolitical risks escalate leading to severe economic downturns, gold could see strong price surges [2][13]. - Central bank demand and gold recycling trends will be critical variables affecting market dynamics, with ongoing strong demand from central banks expected to continue supporting gold prices [14][18]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - The role of gold as a core asset for portfolio diversification and stability remains crucial in a volatile market environment [2][24]. - Despite potential bearish scenarios, the current geopolitical dynamics suggest that investors are likely to maintain a certain level of gold allocation [24]. - The increasing trend of gold-backed loans, particularly in emerging markets like India, may provide additional support for gold prices, although economic slowdowns could lead to increased supply pressures [21][23].

12月4日，港股三大指数再度冲高，恒生科技指数一度涨至2%，最终收涨1.45%重回5600点上方，恒生 指数涨0.68%报25935点，国企指数涨0.86%报9106点。 五矿期货研报认为，地缘层面仍有一定逆风因素，不过市场关注点更多转向美联储议息会议，降息概率 提高使得情绪面偏暖。产业上看铜原料供应维持紧张格局，冶炼减产预期推动铜价走势较强，短期供应 则有边际增加预期，在下游开工率仍有支撑的情况下，铜价有望维持偏强运行。 午后大型科技股集体转涨带动大市冲高，小米涨超4%，美团涨超2%，腾讯、阿里巴巴、百度均上涨。 药品类股集体强势，创新药板块领涨，歌礼制药涨超11%，药明合联、药明生物均涨超7%。 半导体芯片股走势活跃，中芯国际、华虹半导体涨超3%。市场消息称寒武纪计划在2026年将其AI芯片 产量提升到目前的三倍。 机器人概念股普涨，三花智控（002050）涨超7%，地平线机器人涨近7%；消息面上，特斯拉发布 Optimus机器人跑步视频展示运动控制技术突破。 港股黄金、铜、铝等有色金属股多数出现高开低走行情，中国有色矿业跌超4%，山东黄金（600547） 跌超3%。 铜价创下历史新高后，高盛集团对铜价飙 ...

| 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 82760 | 0 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 93232 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 350520 | 25616 | | | 合计 | 526512 | 25616 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 127586 | 1849 | | 总计 | | 654098 | 27465 | 【基本面消息】 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月4日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计654098千克，今日仓单较上一 日上涨27465千克。 沪银主力短线破位下行，今日白银期货开盘报13691元/千克，最高触及13826元/千克，最低触及13322 元/千克，截止收盘报13424元/千克，下跌1.42%。 市场对美联储12月降息概率攀升至近九成。CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员目前押注美联储下周降息 25个基点的概率已从一周前的71%大幅升至接近89%。这种预期强化了市场对美元中短期走弱的判断， 也成为银价走稳的重要因素。 日内关注美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国至11月29日当 ...

格隆汇12月4日｜根据Momentum Investments的说法，由于具有吸引力的估值和强劲的利润，南非股市 将在2026年受益于新兴市场的广泛上涨。资产配置主管Herman van Papendorp表示，基本面的改善、预 期的美元走弱以及在特朗普政府下多元化资金流入的结合，可能导致2026年出现"实质性"资金流入。 Papendorp表示，美元走弱和盈利前景改善将使新兴市场股票在2026年继续领先于发达市场同行。在通 胀压力上升的背景下，美联储的降息以及对非常独立性的威胁，可能会在明年推动美元走弱。 Papendorp表示，在本地，南非联合政府的瓦解仍然是关键威胁。 ...

Macro Economic Group - The US November Services PMI is reported at 52.4%, slightly below the expected 52% and down from October's 52.6%. New orders decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 52.9%, while the price index fell by 4.6 percentage points to 65.4%. The employment index is at 48.9%, indicating contraction for the sixth consecutive month [3][4] - The ADP employment data for November shows a decrease of 31,000 jobs, contrary to the expected increase of 5,000 jobs. The previous month's data was revised from an increase of 42,000 to 47,000. This report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - LME copper reached a historical high of $11,500 per ton, with a daily increase of over 3.2%. LME three-month tin rose by 3.45% to $40,385 per ton. The prices of rare earths have rebounded over 5% in the past month, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising to the range of 595,000-598,000 yuan per ton. The price of tungsten APT has also surpassed 510,000 yuan per ton, with a more than 100% increase in the second half of the year [7] - The overall trend indicates a sustained increase in non-ferrous metal prices, driven by a long-term weakening of the dollar and the competitive pricing of Chinese industrial products in global markets, particularly in developing countries [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Recent research indicates a significant supply-demand mismatch for core solvents EC and additive VC, leading to price elasticity. The market is dominated by two companies, which control about 80% of the EC market share, and both have no plans for capacity expansion. The price of EC has risen from 4,300 yuan per ton to 6,200 yuan per ton [10] - The demand for VC has surged, pushing its price above 230,000 yuan per ton, which further constricts the supply of battery-grade EC, exacerbating the shortage. The lack of new capacity and the supply squeeze suggest that EC prices are likely to continue rising [10] Consumer Group - In the duty-free sector, sales growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free market reached double digits in October and November. New duty-free stores have opened in key cities like Xi'an and Changsha, supported by policies that expand eligible consumer groups and product categories [12] - High-end consumption is recovering, with notable performance from leading retailers like Hangzhou Tower and Henglong, which have seen significant revenue growth and improved profitability. This trend is reflected in the high demand for luxury goods and the robust performance of Macau's gaming sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to a historic high, significantly outperforming gold, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 105% [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On December 3, international spot silver rose by 0.8%, reaching a record high of $58.94 per ounce [1] - The domestic futures market also showed strong performance, with the main Shanghai silver contract rising over 2%, achieving eight consecutive days of gains and continuously breaking historical highs [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Following a silver shortage in London in October, silver inventories from China and the U.S. have flowed into London, alleviating the tight situation, but inventories continue to decline [1] - Shanghai silver inventory has dropped to a near ten-year low, with near-month contract prices exceeding those of far-month contracts, indicating a "backwardation" structure that reflects short-term supply pressure [1] - A global decline in inventories has led to significant signs of warehouse congestion in the spot market, with tight physical delivery conditions triggering a chain reaction of short squeezes that may further drive up silver prices [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - China International Futures believes that silver's rebound potential may be greater than that of gold [1] - While gold remains in an upward channel, it is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations after rapid gains, with future catalysts dependent on the interplay of "declining real interest rates" and "weaker dollar" [1] - In contrast, silver shows stronger short-term certainty, with the historically high "gold-silver ratio" indicating substantial room for correction, and increasing demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics providing support for silver prices [1]

每日市场动向： 近期美联储降息预期升温，加上美元走弱，黄金多头占据优势。 从美国经济基本面来看，最新公布的宏观数据显示经济增速正逐步放缓。与此同时，美联储多位官员近期释放偏宽松的政策信号，让市场对即将召开的 FOMC会议充满期待，普遍认为会上宣布降息25个基点的可能性极高。 根据CMEGroup的FedWatch工具数据，交易者预测此次降息的概率已接近90%。这一强烈的降息预期直接导致周三亚洲交易时段美元汇率维持低位，而黄金 作为典型的美元负相关资产，在美元走弱的背景下获得了显著支撑。需要说明的是，黄金本身不产生利息收益，当市场预期利率下降时，持有黄金的机会成 本降低，自然会吸引更多资金流入。 此外，全球市场仍存在的不确定性因素，也让黄金的避险属性得以凸显，进一步为金价提供了上涨动力。不过，尽管当前多头氛围浓厚，不少黄金交易者并 未急于开仓新头寸，而是选择等待后续关键经济数据公布后再做决策。 黄金（XAU/USD）在周三亚洲交易时段维持小幅日内涨幅，但由于缺乏持续的买盘跟进或明确的多头信心，上行势头在混合信号中有所放缓。市场普遍预 期美联储或于近期再次调整利率，这一情绪使美元维持在近期低位附近徘徊，从而对无息 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have shown an upward trend over the past seven trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 4%, indicating a strong market overall [1] - The structural weakening of the US dollar is a key factor supporting gold prices, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve rising to 89.4%, reducing the relative attractiveness of dollar assets [2] - The US dollar index (DXY) is currently hovering around 99.4, below the important psychological level of 100, which lowers the cost of purchasing gold for holders of other currencies, stimulating short-term demand in the international market [2] Group 2 - Changes in fund flows are reflected in the holdings data of gold ETFs, with major global gold ETFs recording net inflows over the past three weeks, indicating a moderate recovery in institutional investors' interest in gold [5] - The current market risk appetite supports gold, as it remains a key safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainties, with the CNN Fear and Greed Index at 25, indicating "extreme fear" [8] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have maintained a clear upward channel over the past three months, with indicators like the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, suggesting dominant buying power [9]

昨日黄金又是过山车的走势，高位震荡回踩向下，同时保持高位抗跌走势。晚间最低回落4163，不过尾盘又强势收回失地。黄金如果继续保持这样的走势， 那么不排除后续日K会震荡上升，盘面重新回到多头主导。 黄金虽短期面临获利回吐压力，但美联储降息预期、央行强劲购金、美债收益率回落、美元走弱以及地缘政治不确定性等多重因素合力推动向上突破。临近 年末，展望未来，5000美元目标可能并非遥不可及。大家多多关注美联储和关键数据的表现。 早盘反弹继续关注4245和4265附近阻力，接近不破轻仓空。回测先关注4183附近，进一步下破关注4163附近支撑。目前来看多空都有机会，反复性强，短线 处于高位反复迂回洗盘，小周期可能伴随反复的冲高回落。积存金关注945-940。日内操作有两个难点：一是支撑快速刺破容易被扫损，二是回踩后持续抗 跌拉升难以形成趋势性回落。保持好自己的节奏，最近不去追单，注意下操作手法 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 【操作思路】 反弹4245轻仓试空，突破关注4265附近压制 回落4183不破多，破位关注4163支撑 积存金关注945-940 更多实时关注李槿后续 投资有风险，入行需谨慎 昨日超神回落多拿下 ...