逆全球化

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最难开学季:赴美留学是镀金还是历险?
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-21 04:02
刘熙正在准备去美国读博,开学进度就这样突然被按下暂停键。"消息出来后的几天刷了刷,连可预约 的界面都没有。"刘熙说,再耗下去可能无法顺利入学。 2025年夏天,或许是赴美留学的中国学子及家庭,最为挣扎和焦虑的开学季。 当地时间5月27日,特朗普政府宣布暂停新的学生签证面谈预约,同时考虑扩大对国际学生社交媒体审 查范围。 而在此之前已经获得签证的黎丽,形容心情也"像过山车一样刺激"。她是哈佛大学今年新录取的研究 生。不久前,特朗普政府对哈佛大学发出招收国际生的禁令,虽然很快就被最高法院暂时遏制,一场风 波却在黎丽和父母心中留下疑问——新加坡或香港,会是比哈佛的性价比更高的选择吗? 黎丽的纠结,是很多中国留学生心态的共同缩影。有数据显示,中国赴美留学人数近几年正在大幅下 降,如今印度已经超越中国,成为美国留学人数最多的国家。 "一切都悬而未决。"是动荡局势中的人们说得最多的一句话。没人知道,悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑何 时会落下,能做的只有小心谨慎地等待观望着。 而在当地时间6月18日,惯于朝令夕改的特朗普政府恢复了办理外国学生签证,但要求访问签证办理者 的社交媒体账户。美国国务院表示,领事官员将密切关注对美国政府 ...
国补后续资金将分批下达,Labubu预售放量二手价暴跌 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-19 17:04
Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts for four consecutive meetings, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with some supporting two cuts this year while others oppose them [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may restart rate cuts in September, influenced by the impact of tariffs on macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2: Foreign Investment in China - The profits of foreign-invested industrial enterprises in China are projected to increase from 1.6 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024, with profit margins leading the national average [3] - High-tech sectors are expected to account for 43.7% of foreign investment in manufacturing by 2024, with foreign enterprises nearing 50% of high-tech product exports [3] - China's policies to stabilize foreign investment are aimed at enhancing confidence and attracting quality resources, which will invigorate domestic economic growth [4] Group 3: National Subsidy Policies - A total of 138 billion yuan in central funding will be distributed in batches in the third and fourth quarters to support consumption upgrades, despite some regions temporarily halting subsidy programs [5] - The "old for new" consumption policy has expanded to include more product categories, with the special national bond funding increasing from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan this year [5] - The suspension of subsidies may lead to a decline in consumer spending, as seen during the "618" shopping festival [6] Group 4: Market Trends and Company Developments - The secondary market for Labubu collectibles has seen a significant price drop, with average transaction prices halving from 2279.7 yuan to 1181.3 yuan due to pre-sale strategies [7] - Texas Instruments announced a historic investment plan of over 60 billion USD to build seven chip factories, focusing on analog and embedded processing chips [9][10] - Audi has reversed its plan to stop developing and selling internal combustion engine vehicles, acknowledging market differences in the transition to electric vehicles [13][14]
全球国债风波暂告一段落? 日本拟大幅削减超长期国债发行
智通财经网· 2025-06-19 11:52
Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB) by approximately 10% compared to the original plan, aiming to alleviate market concerns about oversupply following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) reduction in bond purchases [1][2][3] Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The revised bond issuance plan will lower the total issuance from 172.3 trillion yen to 171.8 trillion yen, a reduction of about 500 billion yen (approximately 3.44 billion USD) [2] - The issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year ultra-long-term JGBs will be significantly cut, while short-term bills and savings-type bonds for retail investors will see a slight increase [2][5] - Specific reductions include a 900 billion yen cut for 20-year bonds to 11.1 trillion yen, a 900 billion yen cut for 30-year bonds to 8.7 trillion yen, and a 500 billion yen cut for 40-year bonds to 2.5 trillion yen [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The announcement has led to a notable strengthening of the Japanese bond market, with the latest five-year JGB auction recording the highest subscription ratio in two years [7] - Short-term bonds, particularly the 2-year JGBs, have seen increased demand, with their issuance set to rise by 600 billion yen [6][7] - The market's expectation of reduced issuance of long-term bonds is viewed positively, although there are concerns about the potential decline in the government's credit quality due to increased reliance on short-term debt [7]
机构看金市:6月19日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 02:47
Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is expected to pressure precious metals in the short term, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions providing some structural support for gold prices [1][2] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade frictions, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [2] - The recent geopolitical conflicts have led to a temporary spike in gold prices, but the sustainability of this increase is questioned due to the lack of significant physical demand [3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June and signaled a hawkish outlook, with the dot plot indicating two potential rate cuts this year, although seven officials support no cuts [1] - Inflation data continues to fall below expectations, paving the way for potential rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut increasing according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The dollar index has risen significantly, impacting the valuation of precious metals and creating a counterbalance to the geopolitical risks [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is at a critical stage, with negotiations between European nations and Iran facing uncertainty, which may influence gold prices [1] - Analysts from Julius Baer Research note that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict has been muted, attributing initial price increases to speculative trading rather than genuine safe-haven demand [3] - The Gold Forecast highlights that while geopolitical risks can drive short-term price spikes, true safe-haven demand may quickly give way to profit-taking and technical selling [3] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural factors such as ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [2][3] - The interplay between geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy changes, and evolving trade policies will shape the broader economic landscape and influence precious metal prices [3]
西南期货早间评论-20250619
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 02:15
2025 年 6 月 19 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层; 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001; 021-50591197 地址: 电话: 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜: | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡: | | 17 | | 镍: | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕: | | 18 | | 棕榈油: | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油: | | 20 | | 棉花: | | 20 | | 白糖: | | 21 | | 苹果: | | 22 | | 生猪: | | 23 | | 鸡蛋: | | 23 | | 玉米&淀粉: | | 24 | | 原木: | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 26 | 国债: 上一交易日,国债期货收盘表现分化,30 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 120.900 元, 10 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 109.140 元,5 年期主力合约跌 0.01%报 106.280 元,2 年 期主力合约涨 0.01%报 102.544 元。 公开市场方面,央行公开市场开展 ...
1000+出海企业家,20场思想盛宴,新加坡出海全球峰会今日开幕
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-18 18:21
来自天南海北的企业家朋友们因第二届出海全球峰会再次齐聚"亚洲学术殿堂"——新加坡国立大学。 上午9点,特邀嘉宾主持美讯创始人兼CEO彭家荣(Chris Pereira)将登台主持开场,一场关于全球化未来的深度对话即将启幕。 点击按钮▲预约直播 今天9:00,"生而全球·共融共建"第二届出海全球峰会将在新加坡国立大学正式开 幕,千余位企业出海掌舵人再聚狮城,与吴晓波、王辉耀、秦朔、津上俊哉、杨宇 东、张华荣等嘉宾,共同探索中企出海从"产能迁徙"到"文 明共生"的 跃迁之路 。 无法亲临峰会的朋友,请锁定吴晓波频道视频号直播间,云端直击精彩现场。 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号: 吴晓波频道) 当马克思在《共产党宣言》中首次系统勾勒全球化图景时,他或许未曾预见:两个世纪后,中国企业正以"共融共建"的态度,将这场文明实验推向 新高度。 本届峰会遵循高水平、国际化、实效性的办会理念,共设置2日主论坛、1场深度晚宴以及1场中国企业家商务考察行程。 主论坛围绕"逆全球化与新全球化""全球供应链的重构与创新""多生态赋能中资全球化""国际化即本土化"四大核心议题展开深度探讨,共安排17 场主题演讲、2场全球链接宣讲以及1场高峰 ...
西南期货早间评论-20250618
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:33
2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层; 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001; 021-50591197 地址: 电话: 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | | ו ← | | 燃料油: | | 8 | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | . | | | 乙二醇: | . | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: ...
宜信好望角:供应链出海潮,中国制造如何扎根海外
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-17 02:35
Core Insights - In 2025, the trend of Chinese companies going global has evolved from a strategic choice for some to a nationwide topic, with significant presence in Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa, and Mexico, becoming a new growth engine for China's economy [1] - The characteristics of this global expansion include collective, hasty, and purposeful actions, with many companies developing their capabilities during the process [1][2] - The return of Trump to power introduces uncertainties, as the U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese products, complicating the manufacturing return to the U.S. due to high labor costs and structural degradation [1] Group 1 - The lack of a chain leader poses a significant challenge for Chinese companies in the globalization 2.0 era, contrasting with the early overseas expansions of Japan and South Korea [2] - Japanese companies' successful overseas strategies provide valuable lessons for China, emphasizing the importance of a complete business system and support from trade organizations [2] - Companies must assess their suitability for going global, with a focus on achieving over 30% in overseas revenue and production capacity to be considered truly global [2] Group 2 - Going global is no longer a temporary measure but a long-term development cycle, with Chinese companies needing to seize opportunities and address challenges to become genuine global enterprises [3] - The distinction between genuine and superficial global expansion lies in the ability to establish a long-term presence overseas, requiring breakthroughs in geographical, cognitive, and value chain spaces [2]
贵属策略报:伊朗希望缓和冲突,??冲?后回落
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iran's signal to ease the conflict led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a decline in gold prices due to reduced risk aversion. If the geopolitical conflict ends, the market is expected to return to fundamental drivers. This week, focus on the guidance from the Fed's June FOMC meeting. Although it is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged in June, the release of the quarterly dot - plot and economic inflation guidance still needs attention. The long - term bullish trend of gold remains [1][3]. - In the medium to long term, the bullish trend of gold is maintained due to factors such as the continuation of the weakening US fundamentals in the second half of the year, the Fed still being on the path of interest rate cuts, and the contraction of the US dollar's credit under de - globalization and excessive debt issuance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Key Information - According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials have signaled their desire to end hostilities, resume nuclear - related negotiations, and are willing to return to the negotiating table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. They also conveyed to Israel that controlling violence is in the interests of both sides [2]. - The Fed will hold a monetary policy meeting this week, and the market generally expects it to maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25% - 5.50%. Despite robust economic data and moderate inflation in the US, President Trump has pressured the Fed to cut rates. Most institutions predict that September may be the first window for a rate cut this year [2]. - The US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index was - 16, worse than the expected - 5.5 and the previous value of - 9.2. The manufacturing employment index was 4.7, up from the previous - 5.1; the new orders index was - 14.2, down from the previous 7; the prices received index was 26.6, up from the previous 22.9 [2]. Price Logic - Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell, while silver prices fluctuated at high levels. The signal from Iran to ease the conflict led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a decline in gold prices due to reduced risk aversion. The long - term bullish trend of gold is maintained for three reasons: trade frictions still exist, the US fundamentals are expected to weaken in the second half of the year; the Fed is still on the path of interest rate cuts, and the probability of a rate cut in September has increased; the contraction of the US dollar's credit under de - globalization and excessive debt issuance is the cornerstone of the gold bull market [3]. - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3600], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [34, 38] [3].
西南期货早间评论-20250617
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:16
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11] - For most commodities, the report analyzes supply - demand relationships, price trends, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as long - position, short - position, or waiting for opportunities Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices mostly rose in the previous trading day. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The macro - economy shows a stable recovery, but the recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Equities - **Stock Index Futures**: Futures prices showed mixed trends in the previous trading day. The employment situation is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. It is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver futures had different price changes in the previous trading day. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper fluctuated within a range. The spot market atmosphere was average, and the downstream consumption was mediocre. The Sino - US London negotiation reached a framework agreement, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The US refined copper inventory increased, and the copper tariff has not been determined. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and a long - position operation is considered [48][49][51] - **Tin**: The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream production data is good. The inventory is decreasing. The current contradiction lies in the game between the tight supply in reality and the loose expectation. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [52] - **Nickel**: The price of Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support weakened, the downstream consumption was pessimistic, and the demand entered the off - season. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [53] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing with over - capacity. The market has entered the off - season, and the price is at a low level with limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities on rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly. The iron - water production decreased, and the supply increased. The price valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Futures prices rebounded significantly. The market is in an oversupply situation. The short - term price may stop falling, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities on rebounds [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is high. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. Long - position investors need to be cautious. If the spot loss increases significantly, consider low - value call options [21][22] Energy - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose significantly due to geopolitical risks. Fund managers increased their net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. The Sino - US negotiation is beneficial to market sentiment, but the situation in Iran is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24][26] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices rose following crude oil. The inventory in Fujairah increased, which is negative for fuel oil. The global trade demand is recovering, but geopolitical risks are high. It is recommended to wait and see [27][28][30] Chemicals - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices rose. The supply pressure eased slightly, the demand improvement was limited, and the cost is expected to rebound. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [31][32] - **Natural Rubber**: Futures prices rose. The demand is worried about the future, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply is affected by rain. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider long - position opportunities [33][34] - **PVC**: Futures prices rose slightly. The supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [34] - **Urea**: Futures prices rose. It is supported by agricultural demand release and overseas supply tightening, and a long - position is recommended [35][36] - **PX**: Futures prices declined. The supply - demand expectation may weaken, and the price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil. Interval operation with caution is recommended [36] - **PTA**: Futures prices declined. The supply - demand structure weakened, and the inventory decreased. Interval operation and paying attention to reducing processing fees are recommended [37] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Futures prices rose. The supply - demand situation weakened, and the inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [38] - **Short - Fiber**: Futures prices rose. The downstream demand weakened, but the cost provides support. Consider long - position opportunities at low levels and pay attention to increasing processing fees [39] - **Bottle Chips**: Futures prices rose. The raw material price fluctuates strongly, and the device maintenance increases. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low levels and pay attention to increasing processing fees [40] - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is average. The short - term market is expected to be weakly stable, and excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [41] - **Glass**: Futures prices rose slightly. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. Excessive long - position chasing is not recommended [42] - **Caustic Soda**: Futures prices declined. The supply is relatively loose, and the regional difference is obvious. Long - position investors need to control positions [43][44] - **Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. The inventory is high, and the market is in the off - season. The real turnaround may occur in August [45][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures prices declined. The supply is high, and the demand has slowed down. The oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse [47] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options at the bottom support level [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The export volume increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed prices jumped. The import volume of rapeseed oil increased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. Consider long - position opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [59] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices fluctuated, and overseas prices rose. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price rise provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62][63] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices rebounded after a sharp decline, and overseas prices rose. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume will increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [64][65][66] - **Apples**: Futures prices fluctuated. The new - year's apple production is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [67] - **Hogs**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon - Boat Festival. Consider long - position opportunities for peak - season contracts [68][69] - **Eggs**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71] - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn - starch futures prices declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for corn starch [72][73][74] - **Logs**: Futures prices rose. The supply and demand have no obvious drive, and the market transaction is light. Be vigilant against bullish sentiment disturbances [75]