Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic indicates that inflation risks persist due to companies being unable to delay price increases driven by tariffs [1] Group 1 - Companies are facing pressure to raise prices as tariff-related costs cannot be postponed any longer [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-24 多空要素交织，⾦价震荡 美国美联储审慎、地缘风险升温、经济数据超预期，多空要素交织， 金价震荡。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月标普全球制造业PMI初值 52，预期51，前值52；美国 6月标普全球服务业PMI初值 53.1，预期52.9，前值53.7。 2）美国5月成屋销售总数年化 403万户，预期397万户，前值400 万户。 3）俄罗斯总统普京周五表示，他认为整个乌克兰"都是我们 的"，并警告说推进中的俄军可能会占领乌克兰的苏梅市，以期 在边境开辟缓冲区。 价格逻辑： 美国本周末针对伊朗关键核设施发动了代号"午夜铁锤"的协调军事 打击，特朗普宣称行动成功。尽管此次地缘政治紧张局势显著升级， 且伊朗立即予以谴责并威胁报复（伊朗议会特别批准了关闭重要石油 咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡的动议），但黄金价格回落，交投于3,370美 元附近并伴有轻微日内跌幅。伊朗威胁可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，加剧 了人们对全球能源供应中断的担忧，推高了通胀风险。尽管这种地缘 政治不确定性增强了黄金的避险吸引力，但金价仍难以突破关键阻力 位3,400美 ...

美联储巴尔金：尚未准备好排除关税带来的通胀风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices and the potential for further downward movement due to inflation risks highlighted by Powell and the loss of key technical support levels [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices are experiencing a continued pullback, raising questions about the short-term trend and potential for a significant drop [1] - The article suggests that the timing for a substantial decline in gold may be approaching, influenced by external economic factors [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell's warning regarding inflation risks is a critical factor affecting market sentiment and gold prices [1] - The loss of key technical support levels in gold trading is noted as a significant development that could lead to further price declines [1]

五矿期货：紧盯鲍威尔转向时点 贵金属以暂时观望为主 今晨，特朗普暂缓对于伊朗的空袭决定，海外地缘政治风险出现阶段性缓和。白宫新闻秘书回应关于中 东局势的相关问题，表示美国政府近期将很有可能与伊朗展开谈判，美国总统特朗普将于两周内决定是 否对于伊朗采取军事行动。美国政府的表态令市场对于伊以局势的风险定价有所回落，黄金价格短期将 会承压。 中国 5 月消费增长强劲，但投资和工业生产有所放缓，经济增长整体稳健，短期有助于提振国内风险偏 好；但是，短期中东地缘政治紧张局势以及美联储偏鹰的政策声明打压国内风险偏好。 英国央行以比预期更分裂的投票结果将利率维持在4.25%不变，九人货币政策委员会中，六名成员投票 支持维持利率不变。外部委员丁格拉、泰勒以及副行长拉姆斯登则倾向于立即降息25个基点。这一决定 使得英国央行8月可能降息25个基点的预期升温。 【机构观点】 【白银期货行情表现】 6月20日，沪银主力暂报8689元/克，跌幅达2.51%，今日沪银主力开盘价8811元/克，截至目前最高8823 元/克，最低8658元/克。 【宏观消息】 中东紧张局势升级以及对美国可能介入的担忧令市场感到不安；以及美联储鹰派立场导致美 ...

周五（6月20日）亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡偏弱，黄金价格从日高3370回落近20美元，一度跌破3350美 元，随着中东地缘政治紧张局势的缓和削弱避险需求，以及美联储的通胀预警提高了降息前景的不确定 性，黄金周线迈向收跌。 【要闻速递】 金价似乎已经见顶，目前已连续第二个交易日下跌。将会有最新消息来弥补焦虑的市场和避险资产表现 平平之间的差距。 引发更广泛避险情绪的一个潜在因素是美国直接介入的可能性，这种可能性似乎越来越大。特朗普总统 一如既往地在这个问题上保持着他一贯的模糊态度。 不过，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的发言人表示，特朗普将在两周内决定是否加入以色列对伊朗的攻 击，这减轻人们对一场可能威胁能源流动并引发通胀的区域性战争的担忧。 紧张局势的缓解发生在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔早些时候警告特朗普加征关税可能带来通胀风险之 后。这可能会阻碍美联储降息的空间，而这对黄金而言是不利的，因为黄金不支付利息，通常在低利率 环境中表现更好。 华尔街主要银行在黄金是否能够延续创纪录涨势的问题上出现分歧。高盛预测到明年金价将达到4000美 元，而花旗则认为到2026年金价将跌破3000美元。 【技术面分析】 周图：金价走势本 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will elevate oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a $10 per barrel risk premium despite expectations of a drop to around $60 per barrel in Q4 under normal supply conditions [1] - Fitch Ratings states that the fiscal outlook for the U.S. remains challenging, projecting that the general government fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease from nearly 8% in 2024 to 7.1% in 2025, but will rise to 7.6% by 2026 [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if the U.S. confirms involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, the dollar may decline, as U.S. intervention could accelerate the conflict's resolution and reduce Iran's motivation for oil supply disruptions [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to act hastily in the face of inflation, maintaining a cautious stance and indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement two or fewer rate cuts in 2023, with the central tendency for the target rate remaining at 3.9% [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates that Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving will become the main upgrade direction from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by increased regulatory focus on safety [4] Group 3 - China Merchants Macro reports that the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to potential stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts, with internal divisions evident regarding future monetary policy [5][6] - Huaxi Securities notes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure from profit-taking and support for bullish sentiment [6] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard economic data in the U.S. will likely decline in the second half of the year, with stagflation risks becoming a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions [6]

HTFX外汇：避险情绪升温 目前，市场密切关注美国是否会介入以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突。美国总统特朗普在白宫外表示："我可能会这么做，也可能不会。"HTFX外汇认为，这 一模糊表态加剧了全球市场的不确定性。据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普已批准对伊朗的军事打击方案，但仍在观望德黑兰是否会就核计划做出让步。 受此影响，日本日经指数下跌0.8%，强势日元也对日本出口导向型企业构成压力。台湾加权指数下滑0.9%，香港恒生指数也回落0.8%。HTFX外汇指出，当 前市场风险偏好受到压制，区域股市普遍受到避险流动影响。 黄金价格上涨0.3%，报每盎司3,378美元，显示资金加速流入贵金属市场以规避地缘政治风险。与此同时，美元兑主要货币也小幅走强，兑欧元上涨0.1%， 兑英镑升值0.2%，反映出美元作为全球储备货币的避险吸引力仍然坚挺。 HTFX外汇观察到，周四亚洲股市普遍承压下行，主要因中东紧张局势持续升级，引发市场避险情绪升温。与此同时，黄金和日元等传统避险资产表现坚 挺，成为资金流入的主要方向。 在汇市方面，日元兑美元升值0.2%，报144.92，进一步强化了日元作为避险货币的吸引力。瑞郎则小幅下跌0.1%，至0.81 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided for this report [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the June 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has decreased but remains high. The Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts this year, but Powell lacked confidence in this rate forecast due to high uncertainty [3] - The Fed continued to raise inflation expectations and lower growth expectations in the SEP economic forecast. It raised the PCE and core PCE growth rate expectations for the end of 2025 to 3% and 3.1% respectively, increased the unemployment rate forecast to 4.5%, and lowered the real GDP growth rate forecast to 1.4%. The Fed maintained its interest rate forecast, expecting the year - end policy rate to be 3.9%, implying two rate cuts this year [3] - At the press conference, Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing that inflation pressure may still emerge in summer. After the Fed's press conference, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index rose, and the market priced in a more cautious Fed monetary policy stance [3] - In terms of strategy, the next 2 - 3 months are an important observation window. If inflation does not rise significantly in the next 2 - 3 months, the unemployment rate may rise and the market may price in a higher probability of Fed rate cuts, increasing bond market opportunities from September to the fourth quarter. If inflation rises significantly in the third quarter, the unemployment rate may face less upward pressure, the probability of a wage - inflation spiral increases, and interest rates may remain high or even rise further. The U.S. dollar index may be supported by high interest rate differentials this year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fed Meeting Decisions - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the June 2025 meeting and maintained the forecast of two rate cuts this year [3] 2. SEP Economic Forecast Changes - The Fed raised the PCE and core PCE growth rate expectations for the end of 2025 from 2.7% and 2.8% to 3% and 3.1% respectively, increased the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5%, and lowered the real GDP growth rate forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% [3] 3. Powell's Press Conference Stance - Due to high uncertainty, no one has much confidence in the submitted future interest rate path forecasts. Powell emphasized the need to see more actual data and that the Fed needs to maintain high interest rates to suppress inflation. He also mentioned that inflation pressure may appear in summer [3][4] 4. Market Reactions - After the Fed's press conference, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, the U.S. dollar index was supported, and the U.S. stock market was under pressure [3][6] 5. Investment Strategy Suggestions - The next 2 - 3 months are a window to observe inflation risks and consumer confidence. Different inflation trends in this period will lead to different market situations and investment opportunities, especially in the bond market and the U.S. dollar index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese goods, has led to a significant decline in the U.S. stock market, erasing all gains since the last presidential election [1][3]. Economic Impact - The overall earnings of S&P 500 companies may decline by 2.8% due to the tariff policy, with Barclays analysts indicating that the market had not fully assessed the potential risks associated with import tariffs [3]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico could lead to a 0.7% increase in core inflation and a 0.4% contraction in GDP [3]. - Nomura Securities forecasts that the U.S. GDP growth rate could drop to 0.6% by 2025, while Barclays' model suggests a potential negative growth of 0.1% [3]. Trade Relations - Canada and Mexico are crucial suppliers of agricultural products to the U.S., with significant reliance on U.S. markets for their exports (80% for Canada and 84% for Mexico) [3]. - The Midwest U.S. refineries heavily depend on Canadian crude oil, and the tariffs could lead to a rapid increase in gasoline prices in that region [3]. - Mexico, as the largest buyer of U.S. diesel and gasoline, may seek alternative suppliers from Europe and Asia, potentially disrupting the North American energy system [3]. Consumer Confidence and Market Reactions - Consumer confidence has sharply declined, with the index dropping to 98.3 in February, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021 [5]. - A survey indicates that 57.1% of U.S. investors hold a pessimistic view of the stock market for the next six months, with bearish sentiment at historical highs [5]. - Job creation in the non-farm sector has slowed significantly, with only 151,000 new jobs added in February, falling short of market expectations [5]. Policy Instability - The Trump administration's tariff policy has faced rapid changes, including exemptions for major automakers and delays in implementation, highlighting the uncertainty in policy-making [7]. - The tariffs are harming U.S. manufacturers that produce in Canada and Mexico, affecting their ability to sell goods to American consumers [7]. - The overall economic environment is described as a "perfect storm," making it difficult for businesses to plan long-term strategies [5][7].