Report Overview - Date: October 28, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Scope: Precious metals and basic metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Expected to continue falling [2][4] - Silver: Forecasted to rebound with fluctuations [2][4] - Copper: Positive market sentiment to support prices [2][9] - Zinc: Likely to have a slight rebound [2][12] - Lead: Decrease in overseas inventories to support prices [2][15] - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][17] - Aluminum: To trade within a range; Alumina to rebound from the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Nickel: Nickel prices to trade in a narrow range due to the game between smelting inventory build - up and nickel ore concerns; Stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [2][23] Summary by Metal Gold - **Price Performance**:沪金2512昨日收盘价934.14，日涨幅 - 0.42%，夜盘收盘价919.70，夜盘涨幅 - 2.25%；Comex黄金2512昨日收盘价3997.00，日涨幅 - 3.15% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪金2512成交量386,272，较前日增加15,360；持仓量180,815，较前日减少4,998；Comex黄金2512成交量324,262，较前日增加32,301；持仓量352,515，较前日减少420 [4] - **Inventory**:沪金库存87,015千克，无变动；Comex黄金库存（前日）38,877,087金衡盎司，减少81,828 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Silver - **Price Performance**:沪银2512昨日收盘价11394，日涨幅0.54%，夜盘收盘价11150.00，夜盘涨幅 - 2.44%；Comex白银2512昨日收盘价46.830，日涨幅 - 3.26% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪银2512成交量94,606，较前日增加22,560；持仓量113,856，较前日减少1,627；Comex白银2512成交量155,458，较前日增加57,975；持仓量122,583，无变动 [4] - **Inventory**:沪银库存647,643千克，减少17328；Comex白银库存（前日）496,946,989金衡盎司，减少1,034,073 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Copper - **Price Performance**:沪铜主力合约昨日收盘价88,370，日涨幅0.74%，夜盘收盘价88130，夜盘涨幅 - 0.27%；伦铜3M电子盘昨日收盘价11,001，日涨幅0.49% [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铜指数成交量397,173，较前日增加95,594；持仓量613,133，较前日增加29,521；伦铜3M电子盘成交量24,511，较前日减少1,154；持仓量321,000，较前日增加1,413 [9] - **Inventory**:沪铜期货库存35,392，增加321；伦铜库存135,975，减少375 [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a bullish outlook [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**:沪锌主力收盘价22365，涨幅0.04%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘价3019.5，跌幅 - 0.10% [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锌主力成交量120077，减少10384；持仓量121184，增加1017；伦锌成交量11517，减少4003；持仓量222244，减少1274 [12] - **Inventory**:沪锌期货库存65724，减少125；LME锌库存37050，减少550 [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Lead - **Price Performance**:沪铅主力收盘价17520，跌幅 - 0.43%；伦铅3M电子盘收盘价2016.5，涨幅0.22% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铅主力成交量81722，增加2208；持仓量84395，增加549；伦铅成交量4991，减少3339；持仓量154158，减少958 [15] - **Inventory**:沪铅期货库存23048，无变动；LME铅库存232375，减少3000 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Tin - **Price Performance**:沪锡主力合约昨日收盘价286,720，日涨幅0.85%，夜盘收盘价285,580，夜盘涨幅0.22%；伦锡3M电子盘昨日收盘价36,090，日涨幅1.23% [17] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锡主力合约成交量102,206，增加31,425；持仓量45,084，增加7,008；伦锡3M电子盘成交量180，减少9；持仓量13,988，增加53 [17] - **Inventory**:沪锡期货库存5,652，增加85；伦锡库存2,725，减少25 [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**:沪铝主力合约收盘价21360；LME铝3M收盘价2879；沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价2829；铝合金主力合约收盘价20715 [21] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铝主力合约成交量209248，持仓量311269；沪氧化铝主力合约成交量278561，持仓量372484；铝合金主力合约成交量6715，持仓量6366 [21] - **Inventory**:国内铝锭社会库存61.60万吨；LME铝锭库存46.93万吨 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: All at 0, indicating neutral outlooks [22] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**:沪镍主力收盘价122,400；不锈钢主力收盘价12,815 [23] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪镍主力成交量129,533；不锈钢主力成交量212,724 [23] - **Industry News**: Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine area, expected to affect nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; Indonesia sanctioned 190 mining companies [23][24] - **Trend Intensity**: Both at 0, indicating neutral outlooks [25]

Group 1: Monthly Performance of US Public Funds - In September 2025, the median performance of US equity funds was 1.81%, outperforming bond funds at 0.93%, but underperforming international equity funds at 2.44% and asset allocation funds at 2.25% [1][7][10]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Trends - In September 2025, the US fund market saw a total of 78 new funds established, including 71 ETFs and 7 open-end funds, with 57 being equity funds and 20 being bond funds [3][39][43]. - Active management funds experienced a net inflow of $7.9 billion, while passive funds saw a much larger net inflow of $78.5 billion [8][21]. - Open-end bond funds had a significant net inflow of $33.3 billion, while equity funds faced a net outflow of $87.7 billion [27][30]. Group 3: Insights from Leading Asset Management Firms - Recent themes of interest among leading overseas asset management firms include the trajectory of US and European policies and foreign capital perspectives on the stock market [4][45]. - PIMCO highlighted the impact of tariffs and technology on the market, suggesting that while large tech companies are benefiting from AI investments, certain sectors may face pressure due to tariff impacts [49]. - Fidelity noted that despite tariff fluctuations, the stock market remains strong, driven by optimism and AI-related investments [49]. Group 4: Fund Issuance Observations - The issuance of new funds in the US market has been dominated by ETFs, with 71 new ETFs launched in September 2025 compared to only 7 open-end funds [39][43].

美东时间27日周一，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆在新闻发布会上表示，她与特朗普上周六简短通话，双方同意延长谈判时间，以便就仍在讨论的非关税贸易壁垒达成 协议。她表示，"目前不存在11月1日加征任何特别关税的情况"，双方接近达成协议，并同意在未来几周再次通话。特朗普原定11月1日将针对特定墨西哥商 品的芬太尼相关关税从25%提高至30%。 辛鲍姆发表上述言论后，墨西哥比索汇率升至日内高位，美元兑比索在美股早盘时段曾跌破18.40刷新日低，日内跌近0.5%。渣打银行经济学家Dan Pan表 示，有关谈判进展的评论"提振了市场对墨西哥在与美国贸易谈判中处于相对有利地位的乐观情绪，尤其考虑到其对美国市场的高度依赖"。 与此形成对比的是，特朗普本周一在从马来西亚去往日本的空军一号上明确表示，不想在访问亚洲期间与加拿大总理卡尼会面。按日程，卡尼和特朗普均将 出席本周在韩国举行的APEC峰会。特朗普说: "我不想见他（卡尼）。我们一段时间内不会与他们（加拿大）会谈。我对目前与加拿大的协议非常满意，我们会让它继续下去。" 美国总统特朗普对两个邻国的贸易谈判态度出现明显分化。他同意将美国与墨西哥达成贸易协议的截止期推迟数周，对加拿大则表示 ...

Leslie, yeah, the uh Federal Federal Dallas Federal Reserve's uh business activity index rising to minus5 from minus 8.7%. So, still challenged, but not as challenged as it was in the prior month. The outlook for business activity remains positive at 7, but it did drop down from 8.4%.These surveys do a decent job of following the outlook for uh the general numbers for the uh national economy. Each survey is a little different. Uh production was unchanged at 5.2%.New orders index remains negative at minus 1. ...

Summary of Conference Call on AI Spending and GDP Growth Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) spending on the U.S. GDP growth, particularly in the context of economic policies and market conditions [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs and Monetary Policy**: Tariffs have a limited transmission effect on consumer prices, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its accommodative policy, with anticipated rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December. This is expected to boost market risk sentiment, increase stock prices, lower bond yields, and weaken the dollar [1][3]. - **AI Spending Contribution to GDP**: In the first half of 2025, AI-related spending is projected to account for a significant portion of non-residential business fixed investment, contributing approximately 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, which represents nearly two-thirds of total growth. However, when accounting for import factors, the net contribution to actual GDP growth significantly declines [1][4][5]. - **Software Spending Trends**: In 2024, software spending is expected to contribute minimally to GDP growth, estimated at only 1-2 percentage points. This contribution is projected to rise to about 0.6 percentage points in the first half of 2025, primarily due to an unexpected 10% increase in the software price index in 2024, which is expected to reverse in 2025 [1][6]. - **Economic Activity Misrepresentation**: The unusual fluctuations in the software price index have led to an underestimation of actual economic activity in 2024 and an overestimation in 2025. Future assessments should focus on the sustainability of nominal spending and its performance after adjusting for actual value [1][6]. - **Future AI Investment Outlook**: While AI-related spending is anticipated to continue positively impacting the economy in the coming quarters and years, the growth rate may slow down. Nominal spending reported by companies shows moderate growth, but as the overall level increases, the marginal effect is expected to diminish. Caution is advised in interpreting the relationship between AI investment and GDP to avoid overstating its direct impact on economic activity [1][7][2]. Other Important Considerations - The need for careful interpretation of data regarding AI investments and their relationship with GDP growth is emphasized, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between nominal spending and its actual economic value [2][7].

Small importers for large U.S. retailers rushed in China-made strollers and wares meant for spring and are storing the goods in their own warehouses to avoid the big tariff bills that had been threatened over the next month. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing tensions and challenges in the US-China trade negotiations, with both sides maintaining a hardline stance while attempting to project a facade of progress [1][3][5] - The negotiations were characterized by a lack of alignment on key issues such as tariff extensions and export controls, indicating that substantial agreements were not reached [5][7] - Despite the tough rhetoric, both parties managed to provide each other with diplomatic cover, suggesting a willingness to continue discussions without making significant concessions [3][7] Group 2 - The article points out that the US's strategy of imposing tariffs and technology restrictions has not effectively curtailed China's exports, with daily shipments still reaching $1 billion despite tariffs [8][10] - In the third quarter of 2024, China's exports to the US exceeded $100 billion, with a trade surplus of nearly $67 billion, indicating resilience in its export sector [10][11] - China's manufacturing sector continues to dominate globally, holding a 30% share, which has increased by 5 percentage points since the trade war began [10][13] Group 3 - The article discusses the failure of the US's technology blockade, as China's self-sufficiency in chip production has significantly improved, with the self-sufficiency rate rising from 15% to 50% by 2025 [13][15] - Huawei has successfully navigated US restrictions, selling its new 5G equipment in over 120 countries, showcasing China's ability to adapt and innovate despite external pressures [15][16] - China's export diversification strategy has led to an 8% overall increase in exports in 2024, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Europe, particularly in new energy vehicles and solar components [16][18] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the strengthening of China's domestic market, with retail sales growing by 6.5% in 2024, surpassing export growth, indicating a robust consumer base [21] - China's GDP growth rate of 5.2% in 2024 outpaces the US's 2.5%, reflecting the resilience of its manufacturing sector and technological advancements [21] - The expansion of China's international partnerships through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative has enhanced its global trade network, with investments in developing countries increasing by 15% in 2025 [18][21]

特朗普在马来西亚举行东盟峰会期间，与泰国、马来西亚和柬埔寨签署了一系列有关贸易和关键矿物的协议，旨在应对贸易失衡问题，并在中国加强稀土出口管制之际推动供应链分散化。 https://t.co/hAKl0J8yEn外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国称与越南宣布达成互惠、公平、平衡贸易协议的框架。美国将维持对越南20%的关税，将确定产品及潜在关税调整方案，以使友好伙伴获得零关税的互惠待遇。将寻求在未来几周内达成协议。 https://t.co/EjDyVzEb3c ...

Core Insights - Apple is facing significant challenges due to the ongoing trade war, particularly concerning tariffs and rare earth elements [1][5][8] - CEO Tim Cook has been actively engaging with both the Chinese government and the Trump administration to mitigate the impact of tariffs [2][4][11] Group 1: Trade War and Tariffs - Tim Cook projected that tariffs would cost Apple $1.1 billion in Q3 [1] - Cook's visit to China included a pledge to increase investment, which aims to maintain a favorable business environment [3] - The Trump administration's tariffs on Indian imports exempted smartphones, benefiting Apple's manufacturing in India [5] Group 2: Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are critical for Apple's products, including iPhones and iPads, affecting their functionality [6] - China controls approximately 70% of the world's rare earth mining capacity and 90% of processing capacity, giving it leverage in the trade war [7] - New regulations from China may require special approval for exporting items with rare earth elements, potentially harming Apple [8] Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Outlook - Despite trade tensions, Apple's stock is trading near an all-time high, with a current price of $262.82 and a market cap of $3,900 billion [9][10] - A deadline of November 1 has been set for a potential trade deal, with significant implications for Apple if it is not reached [11] - Apple is exploring alternative sources for rare earth elements, including a $500 million partnership for a recycling facility, but this initiative will not yield results until 2027 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's accusations against Canada for allegedly using a "forged" video of former President Reagan to mislead the public, which he claims is an act of fraud. Trump announced a 10% tariff response due to Canada's actions and declared the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada [1]. Group 1: Accusations and Responses - Trump accused Canada of using edited audio and video of Reagan's speech to mislead the public, claiming it constitutes fraud [1]. - The Reagan Foundation stated that Canada did not have authorization to use or edit Reagan's speech, and they are considering legal action [1]. - Trump emphasized that Canada's actions aim to interfere with U.S. Supreme Court decisions regarding tariffs [1]. Group 2: Trade Relations - In response to Canada's "hostile actions," Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods [1]. - Trump declared the immediate termination of all trade negotiations with Canada due to their alleged misconduct [1]. - The article notes that Trump's stance is that tariffs are crucial for U.S. national security and economic interests [1].