Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is that the interruption of Russian oil exports has disrupted short - term supply, and one should wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The "blockade sanctions" imposed by the US on two major Russian oil giants on October 22 are the main disruptive factors, which have pushed up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. However, the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited, and the supply side shows short - term tightness but strong medium - to - long - term adaptability [6]. - The demand side shows a situation of regional differentiation and overall weakness. The sanctions have forced changes in the import patterns of major consumer countries. Global oil demand growth is weak, and actual oil consumption capacity is lower than expected, offsetting the risk of supply disruptions caused by geopolitics. The expected warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere may further suppress heating oil demand, so the demand side cannot provide strong upward momentum for oil prices [7]. - Short - term: Wait and see, beware of further corrections. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. Although the decline of oil prices has accelerated under the influence of this round of trade frictions, the medium - to - long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, and oil price fluctuations may increase [8]. Summary by Directory Overview - The interruption of Russian oil exports due to US sanctions has disrupted short - term supply. The sanctions have affected about 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, mainly pushing up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. Other supply sources are filling the gap, but the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited. The demand side is weak, with regional differentiation and overall lack of upward momentum for oil prices [6][7]. Macro - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated again, and the gold - oil ratio has increased. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [26][32][37]. Supply - OPEC is continuously increasing production. The eight participating countries in OPEC + are adjusting their production, and the reduction in production is being gradually lifted. The 9 - month production increase completion rate of OPEC 8 is 80%, and institutional statistics show nearly 1 million barrels per day. OPEC's maritime exports remain at a low level with no obvious increase [10][45][46]. - The supply situations of various countries/regions vary. For example, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have certain idle production capacities; the demand for some grades of oil in Guyana is strong; Russia's refinery capacity has been damaged, but its crude oil export potential has increased; the production of US shale oil is facing challenges [11][12]. Demand - Asian strategic reserve procurement has slowed down. Chinese refiners are consuming inventory, and the demand for spot imports has weakened. Indian refineries' procurement decisions have been affected by US sanctions, but their interest in Russian oil has reignited recently. North American, European, and Asian refineries are entering the seasonal maintenance period, and direct crude oil demand has temporarily weakened [13][14]. Inventory - US commercial inventories have increased, while the inventory in the Cushing area is still significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are oscillating strongly, European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are being depleted. Domestic refined oil margins are rebounding [89][91][93]. Price and Spread - In the global crude oil spot market, the sanctions on Russia have led to an increase in Middle - Eastern quotations. Middle - Eastern crude oil discounts have surged, the US export situation is favorable, the North Sea market is stable, the outlook for low - sulfur crude oil in the Mediterranean is bearish, and the West African market is affected by weak Chinese demand [97][99].

Group 1 - Hedge funds holding record short positions in Brent crude oil failed to capitalize on the recent price increase [1] - As of October 21, hedge fund managers increased their short positions in Brent crude oil by 40,233 contracts to a historical high of 197,868 contracts [1] - The market had anticipated an oversupply of crude oil, evidenced by rising offshore oil inventories, leading to a bearish stance among hedge funds [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, disrupting market expectations and potentially supporting oil prices [1] - The sanctions could lead to a reduction of up to 600,000 barrels per day in Russian oil production, alleviating the oversupply situation [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of the weekly U.S. crude oil inventory report, making the recent trading data particularly significant for market sentiment analysis [2]

受全球地缘风险影响，原油期货价格最近几个交易日大幅反弹。10月23日，上海原油期货主力合约涨幅 超4%；截至记者发稿时，NYMEX原油期货涨超5.6%，最近3个交易日累计涨幅已超8%。 "短期地缘风险抬头，油价向上修复，但本次冲突的题材仍是老调重弹，叠加全球宏观经济不稳，需警 惕随时回落。"正信期货研究院报告认为，地缘风险不断扰动，交易节奏难以把握，仍需关注国际原油 产能过剩矛盾带来的逢高抛空机会。 目前，全球石油市场总体呈现"供大于求"的局面。一方面，OPEC+逐步增产；另一方面，俄罗斯等原 油出口大国出口量也处于高位，市场供应充足。在需求方面，全球经济增长放缓的预期使得市场对石油 需求的预测趋于保守。国际能源署(IEA)已连续多月下调全球石油需求增长预期。 值得注意的是，纽约WTI原油期货12月与明年1月合约价差，近日出现5个月以来首次转为期货升水结 构，即近月合约价格低于远月合约，显示市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧。而且海上浮动原油量激增至接近 2020年疫情时期水平，表明陆上库存正在饱和。瑞银集团认为，尽管最新制裁可能会给原油价格近期带 来波动性，但全球石油市场供应过剩的状况应有助于限制油价持续上涨的风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, along with the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia, have heightened concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supply, leading to significant increases in international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sanctions and Market Reactions - The U.S. sanctions now encompass all four major Russian oil companies, with Rosneft and Lukoil being the latest targets, which could impact nearly half of Russia's oil exports, approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year [1][4]. - Following the announcement, international oil prices surged, with Shanghai crude futures closing up over 4% and NYMEX crude futures rising more than 5.8% [2][4]. - The sanctions are expected to reduce India's purchases of Russian oil, as India currently sources over 36% of its crude imports from Russia [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently characterized by an oversupply situation, with OPEC+ gradually increasing production and major oil-exporting countries maintaining high export levels [5][6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded global oil demand growth forecasts due to expectations of a slowing global economy [5]. - Recent market indicators, such as the WTI crude futures structure showing a shift to a contango state, suggest increasing concerns over supply excess [5]. Group 3: Price Forecasts and Market Outlook - Despite the recent sanctions potentially causing short-term volatility in oil prices, the overall oversupply situation is expected to limit sustained price increases, with Brent crude projected to remain in the $60 to $70 per barrel range [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates further declines in Brent crude prices, potentially reaching $52 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year [5]. - The long-term outlook suggests that geopolitical risks may diminish, allowing market fundamentals to regain dominance, with OPEC+ shifting towards a strategy of increasing production to maintain market share [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, but the price has dropped significantly since October. Recently, with the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the change in the US attitude towards Russia, the crude oil price is expected to continue to rebound at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory of US crude oil has increased more than expected, and the inventory of refined oil has decreased more than expected. The overall oil inventory has increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high [1] - The end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payrolls data, and uncertainties in China - US trade have worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the crude oil export in the Iraqi Kurdistan region has restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main contract 2512 of crude oil futures rose 4.05% to 459.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 445.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 463.7 yuan per ton. The trading volume decreased by 3826 to 43,154 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. EIA has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. IEA has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, and the oil supply surplus has intensified [3] Inventory and Production Data - On October 17, EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending October 10 increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in August was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The US crude oil production for the week ending October 10 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day, reaching a new record high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly supply of US crude oil products decreased by 11.48% month - on - month [5][7]

9月底以来，国内外原油价格持续下行，与价格屡创新高的黄金形成强烈反差。其中，NYMEX WTI原 油期货价格一度跌破57美元／桶，ICE Brent原油期货2601合约也一度跌破60美元／桶。此外，预防性 降息利好美国贵金属和美股，而铜和原油受实体经济影响较大，其价格走势取决于市场实际供应情况、 各国经济状况以及对商品的需求。 从原油供需基本面来看，全球原油增产态势明确。一方面，OPEC为争夺市场份额放弃自愿减产；另一 方面，美国等非OPEC国家的原油产量也在不断增长。此外，地缘政治风险缓和，伊朗和俄罗斯原油出 口有望恢复，这使得全球原油库存持续攀升。而原油需求端表现疲软，显示当前原油价格的支撑力量仅 来自美联储降息所带来的投资需求，不足以扭转原油价格的跌势。 增产引发供应过剩担忧 目前，增产引发的供应过剩担忧是原油市场的核心矛盾。数据显示，10月，由沙特领导的OPEC为重新 夺回市场份额，正在撤销此前实施的减产举措，OPEC原油供应量有望升至3469万桶／日，创下2018年 12月以来的最高纪录。10月初，OPEC宣布进一步增产，即在11月增产13.7万桶／日，增产幅度与10月 相同。OPEC正在逐步放弃2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming adjustment in refined oil prices in China, indicating a potential significant drop in prices due to declining international crude oil prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - After the recent holiday, refined oil prices in China experienced a slight decrease, with expectations of a larger drop of 0.25-0.3 CNY per liter, bringing 92 gasoline back to the 6 CNY range [1]. - As of October 20, the average price of crude oil was reported at 60.14 USD per barrel, with a change rate of -6.69%, suggesting a corresponding decrease of 330 CNY per ton in domestic gasoline and diesel prices [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a larger-than-expected oversupply in the global crude oil market, leading to increased inventories and downward pressure on oil prices [4]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has stabilized with a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, reducing risk premiums and further contributing to the decline in oil prices [4]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, there are mixed signals from U.S.-China trade relations, with indications that tariffs may not be increased, providing some support for oil prices [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - In 2023, refined oil prices in China have undergone 20 adjustments, characterized by six increases, eight decreases, and six periods of no change [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The overall futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. The reduction period of palm oil and the market's expectation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation support palm oil and soybean oil. However, warnings of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 and Sino - US trade tensions suppress biodiesel, putting downward pressure on palm oil and soybean oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient before the end of the year, soybean oil inventory is high, and demand is shrinking, lacking the impetus for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the oils and fats market [9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.55% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 1.38% to close at 9,308 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 1.99% to close at 9,861 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From October 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% - 16.2% month - on - month, alleviating market concerns about demand. Indonesia may raise the crude palm oil export levy to 15% to meet the subsidy funds required for the future B50 program, with the specific time undetermined. Malaysian palm oil fell 1.58% [7][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 2025/26 season, China has not purchased any US soybeans but has turned to Brazil, Argentina and other countries. Despite US soybean prices being lower than those in South America, due to the trade war and China's retaliatory tariffs (up to 20%), China's purchasing decision has become a political choice. US soybeans rose 1.39% this week [7][31]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of October 10, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 1.438 million tons. On October 15, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 598,000 tons [17]. - As of October 17, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 7,188,210 tons [20]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 264 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 62 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 295 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is consistent with the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the market [32].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年10月19日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：供需趋弱，短期观望， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 关注宏观风险 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | 观点 逻辑：1、中美贸易摩擦升温，市场悲观情绪迅速加剧，但APEC会议或反转；2、OPEC+增产仍在持续，季节性累 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply surplus and global economic slowdown concerns are pushing US crude oil prices towards the lowest level since the post - COVID - 19 recovery. The simultaneous increase in production by the US and OPEC has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's plan to meet with Putin again, have alleviated the risk sentiment in the crude oil market, accelerating the decline in oil prices. The Indian attitude towards stopping the purchase of Russian oil is unclear. The domestic crude oil has reached the lowest level of the year, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The SC2511 contract is expected to trade in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump plans to meet with Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war; Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases from December; Saudi Aramco CEO warns of potential supply shortages if the industry doesn't increase exploration and investment [3]. - **Basis**: On October 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.51 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.11 per barrel. The basis was $28.63 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.211 million barrels, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of October 7, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price is weak, SC2511 trades in the 430 - 440 range, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US WTI crude oil futures closed at $56.99 per barrel on Thursday, down 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. In the past year, it has fallen by 19%. The increase in production by OPEC and the US has led to a supply surplus. Lower oil prices benefit US consumers but pose challenges to the US oil industry [5]. - US oil producers reached a daily production of over 13.6 million barrels in July, and it is expected to remain at this level by the end of the year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict threatens refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased; there is a risk of US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further increasing production [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of crude oil have changed. For example, the price of UK Brent crude oil decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decrease of 1.66% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October show fluctuations in inventory levels. For example, API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: The net long positions of WTI crude oil funds have changed over time. As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The net long positions of Brent crude oil funds have also changed. As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].