Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown positive trends this year due to proactive fiscal policies, accelerated government bond issuance, and the commencement of major projects, although some high-frequency data related to infrastructure and construction site funding rates indicate that the momentum for effective investment expansion still needs to be fully realized [1][4][5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, marking a record high for the year, while the construction business activity index remained in expansion at 51% [1][2] - High-frequency indicators such as rebar apparent demand, cement dispatch rates, and asphalt plant operating rates weakened in May, with rebar demand at 248.91 million tons, cement dispatch at 41.25%, and asphalt plant operating rates at 27.7%, all lower than the same period last year [1][2] Construction Site Funding Rates - As of June 3, the funding rate for sample construction sites was 59.13%, below the critical threshold of 60%, with non-residential projects at 61.01% and residential projects at 49.85% [3][4] - The low funding rates may impact project construction progress, but the civil engineering business activity index rose to 62.3% in May, indicating a continued acceleration in project construction [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Investment Support - The acceleration of new special bond issuance and the initiation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to enhance fiscal support for effective investment [4][5] - The proportion of new special bonds allocated to infrastructure is approximately 72%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5][6] Future Outlook - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 80%, and the slowing pace of these issuances will create space for subsequent special bond issuances, which are expected to provide stronger support for infrastructure [5][6] - Experts predict that the necessity of using infrastructure investment to support the economy is increasing, with expected growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments at 7.2% and 4.8% respectively for the year [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The real - demand for steel is weak, and steel prices are still in the process of finding a bottom [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Quantity Contradictions - Macro Policy - The 2025 government work report's GDP target is about 5%, the deficit is 4%, the inflation target is 2%, the local government special bond scale is 4.4 trillion, and the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale is 1.3 trillion. The Politburo meeting on April 28th did not issue any unexpected policies, and China will enter a policy window period. In May, the M1 - M2 scissors gap was - 5.6, and the decline continued to narrow [7] 3.2 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Supply - In March 2025, the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale was 1.3 trillion. On May 20th, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year. On May 15th, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points [11] 3.3 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Demand - Relevant data on new social financing scale, resident medium - and long - term loans, new RMB loans, and enterprise medium - and long - term loans are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [13][14][15][16] 3.4 Real Estate 3.4.1 Sales - Housing prices show signs of stabilizing, and the decline in new home sales has narrowed. Rigid demand is related to population growth, urbanization rate, and resident leverage ratio. Investment demand is related to housing prices. Housing prices lead to second - hand housing sales, and second - hand housing sales lead to new home sales [17][20][22] 3.4.2 New Construction and Land Transactions - Land acquisition leads new construction by 6 months [24] 3.5 Infrastructure 3.5.1 Funds - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds involve quasi - fiscal policies, such as 700 billion yuan of the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 being used for "two major" construction projects, and a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bond in March 2025 [26][27][30][31] 3.5.2 Projects - Data on the construction industry PMI and the start - up investment amount of major projects are presented [33] 3.6 Manufacturing 3.6.1 General Situation - Supported by new factors, the production and sales of major industrial products maintain high growth, but exports face shocks [34] 3.6.2 Production and Sales of Major Industrial Products - The production and sales of automobiles, white goods, excavators, and other products are presented, with specific production data and year - on - year growth rates [39][40] 3.6.3 Production Enterprises' Orders and Sales - The planned and actual production of household appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, as well as their domestic sales data, are presented [43] 3.6.4 Automobile Production and Sales - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, with structural contradictions in production and sales by variety. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [57] 3.6.5 Machinery Production and Sales - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, and the export proportion of sub - varieties is increasing year by year. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [65] 3.6.6 Ship Production and Sales - Shipbuilding is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes, supply - demand patterns, renewal cycles, and transportation efficiency in different periods. Currently, shipyards have sufficient orders on hand, and new orders continue to grow at a high rate [70] 3.7 Steel Direct Exports - Steel exports are adjusting passively by trading price for volume. Vietnam's anti - dumping tax has a great impact on China's steel exports to Vietnam, and the traditional price - for - volume model is affected [71][74] 3.8 Steel Demand - Steel demand is gradually peaking, and negative feedback should be vigilant. Data on spot transactions and variety price difference structures are presented [83][89][91]

Group 1 - The infrastructure sector is leading the market, with the infrastructure ETF (159619) rising over 1.5%, supported by improved demand from the mid-western region and funding conditions [1] - Infrastructure investment is expected to show structural characteristics by 2025, with broad and narrow infrastructure growth rates projected at 8.69% and 4.03% respectively [1] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated significantly, with 58% of the annual quota completed by May, and an additional 176 billion yuan issued in June [1] Group 2 - The mid-western region shows outstanding infrastructure activity, with special bond growth exceeding 100% in Sichuan and Shaanxi from January to April [1] - Coal chemical projects are expected to drive regional infrastructure demand, with total planned investments reaching 1,032.9 billion yuan and an average annual investment growth of 220.6% from 2025 to 2029 [1] - The water and electricity sectors remain highly active, with significant infrastructure needs arising from upcoming projects like the Tibet hydropower project [1] Group 3 - The funding environment has improved, with rapid progress in replacing hidden debts, and a narrowing decline in net financing of urban investment bonds expected to provide additional funding support for infrastructure [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of local government debt in China, which has exceeded 47 trillion yuan, with special debt accounting for over 30 trillion yuan and an average maturity of approximately 10 years at an interest rate of about 3% [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Debt Growth**: From 2014 to 2024, the local government leverage ratio increased from around 20% to over 35%, with significant regional disparities, particularly in Tianjin and Guizhou where debt ratios exceed 200% [2]. - **Explicit vs. Implicit Debt**: The existence of both explicit and implicit debts poses risks, with implicit debt being particularly difficult to quantify and regulate due to its hidden nature [2]. - **Historical Context**: The formation of implicit debt began in the 1990s and accelerated due to tax reform and GDP performance pressures, leading local governments to rely on land finance and financing platforms to cover funding gaps [1][3]. - **Debt Resolution Cycles**: Since 2015, there have been four cycles of resolving local government implicit debt, each characterized by central government-led policy design aimed at optimizing debt structure and preventing systemic risks [4]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Shifts**: The approach to resolving debt has shifted from emergency measures to proactive solutions, balancing risk prevention with development promotion [5][6]. - **Market Impact**: The new policies have three main impacts on the market: 1. **Bond Market**: Improved market risk expectations and increased credit differentiation among urban investment bonds [7]. 2. **Equity Market**: Indirect effects through market preference recovery and redistribution of fiscal resources [7]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Fiscal credit tightening may reduce infrastructure investment growth by 1.2 to 1.7 percentage points, potentially impacting GDP growth by approximately 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points [7].

首席联合电话会 - 周期专场 20250618 摘要 房地产市场呈现优质供给驱动销售的特点，整体销售量受优质供给影响 显著。尽管房企促销手段多样，但难以有效提升非优质产品的销售，市 场企稳回升时间尚不明确。 短期内，房地产板块存在 7 月份潜在博弈机会，预计三季度或有房地产 政策出台，并可能与其他金融政策配合。推荐关注绿城中国、越秀地产、 建发和滨江等估值偏低的优质标的。 2025 年 5 月基建投资增速放缓，财政支出对基建支持有限，专项债发 行进度滞后但全年额度预计用完，特别国债开始发行。下半年专项债应 用将带来工作量提升。 顺周期标的如鸿路钢构、金工、中国巨石、雨虹防水和三棵树估值已达 安全水平，可左侧布局。央企如中国建筑、隧道股份、四川路桥及水泥 企业塔牌集团、海螺水泥、华新水泥可作为配置选择。 有色金属板块中，贵金属方面长期看好黄金，短期宏观风险或致金价震 荡，关注紫金矿业、湖南黄金及山东黄金。工业金属方面，铜铝价格震 荡，关注五矿资源及宏发股份的扩产速度。 Q&A 房地产市场的当前状况如何？未来的投资机会在哪里？ 从基本面来看，房地产市场仍然由供给驱动。我们在重庆、成都、深圳和广州 等城市的调研显示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

进入6月以来，螺纹钢市场逐步进入传统意义上的季节性需求淡季。回顾自2021年以来螺纹钢期货价格 在6月和7月的走势，可以发现需求淡季的行情未必平淡。2021年和2023年，螺纹钢期货价格在6月和7月 均大幅上涨，而在2022年和2024年则大幅下跌。今年6月和7月，螺纹钢期货价格怎么走？笔者从基本面 角度对目前的行情进行分析梳理，供投资者参考。 基建投资维持高位 短流程钢厂持续复产，使螺纹钢供应压力依然较大。目前螺纹钢周产量为219万吨，环比下降7万吨，同 比下降15万吨。从钢厂生产计划来看，6月钢厂检修减产力度依然较弱，螺纹钢供应大概率会维持在高 位水平。 去库速度放缓 随着下游需求淡季到来，螺纹钢需求开始下滑，去库速度随之放缓。上海钢联调研数据显示，5月螺纹 钢总库存为571万吨，环比下降130万吨，同比下降205万吨。随着下游需求转弱，预计6月螺纹钢去库速 度将进一步放缓，库存由降转增的概率显著增加。 综合来看，随着下游需求淡季到来，短期螺纹钢供需压力逐步增加。另一方面，随着一揽子宏观政策加 速落地，基建投资有望维持在较高水平，中期螺纹钢需求有望回升。在上述因素的共同作用之下，6月 螺纹钢期货价格预计先 ...

"背离"的高频数据 5月以来，新增地方政府专项债券发行规模超过4400亿元，创下年内新高。当月建筑业商务活动指数为 51%，继续保持扩张态势。但另一方面，与基建投资相关的螺纹钢表观需求、水泥发运率、石油沥青装 置开工率等高频数据在5月有所走弱。Wind数据显示，5月最后一周螺纹钢表观需求、水泥发运率、石 油沥青装置开工率分别为248.91万吨、41.25%、27.7%，均低于去年同期。 近年来，螺纹钢等部分建筑业高频指标受房地产开发投资下滑影响较大。袁闯指出，今年前5个月螺纹 钢表观需求的周平均值较2024年同期下滑5.56%。今年以来房地产新开工面积、施工面积下滑对螺纹钢 的表观需求有较大拖累作用，并抵消了基建需求的带动作用。 不同基建项目与高频指标相关性也有所不同。比如，今年前4个月道路运输业固定资产投资同比下降 0.9%，与之高度相关的石油沥青装置开工率表现偏弱。今年以来，国家能源局指导供电企业持续加强 电力基础设施建设。据民生证券研报分析，电力基建项目与水泥磨机开工率、沥青装置开工率等指标关 系较弱。当电力基建项目带动基建投资走高时，相应指标可能不会同步反应。 偏低的建筑工地资金到位率 资金到位情况往 ...

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of June 6, 2025, subway passenger volume growth is 1.39% year-on-year, but down 3.67% month-on-month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in May reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase month-on-month[1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of travelers increased by 26.6% compared to 2019, while travel income grew by 8.6%[1] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - As of early June, the operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 83.54%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production fell to 41.95%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of pure alkali production increased by 2.19 percentage points to 80.76%[1] Price Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.72% week-on-week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.52%[1] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.6% and 3.53% respectively during the week[3] - The PPI showed a mixed trend, with copper prices rising by 3.97% while aluminum prices fell by 0.51%[1] Fiscal and Investment - A total of 176 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 934 billion yuan[2] - The issuance progress of local special bonds (including debt relief) reached 49.4% as of June 7, 2025[2] - The investment in infrastructure is expected to rise as cement shipment rates and asphalt operating rates recover[2] Economic Data - The US economy is showing signs of slow down, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for May[3] - Non-farm employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.24%[3] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate decreased to 1.9%, indicating marginal economic improvement[3]

建筑装饰 2025 年 06 月 08 日 三峡水运新通道开工，关注大型水利工程事件催化 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250603-20250606） 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+1.25%，沪深 300 指数+0.88%，相对收益为+0.37pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 基建国企（+3.22%）、家装（+2.85%）、专业工程（+2.34%），对应 行业内三个公司：重庆建工（+26.12%）、名雕股份（+7 ...