Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's research report indicates that Anta Sports is likely to gain market share as Nike continues to adjust in China, with expectations of a narrowing revenue decline for Nike in the upcoming fiscal quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Nike's Financial Performance - Nike's revenue for Q4 FY2025 decreased by 11% year-over-year, exceeding FactSet's expectation of a 3.4% decline, with regional revenues in North America, Europe-Middle East-Africa, Greater China, and Asia-Pacific-Latin America showing declines of -11%, -10%, -20%, and -3% respectively [1][2]. - Management anticipates a moderate single-digit decline in revenue for Q1 FY2026, with gross margins expected to decrease by 350-425 basis points, including a 100 basis point negative impact from tariffs [2][3]. - Inventory levels remained high, with a year-over-year change of 0% in Q4 FY2025, while Nike plans to continue reducing inventory over the next two quarters [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Anta Sports is expected to benefit from Nike's market adjustments, potentially gaining market share as Nike's direct business in Greater China saw a 15% year-over-year revenue decline [1][3]. - The wholesale revenue for Nike in Greater China decreased by 24%, which may alleviate pressure on retailers like Topsports [3]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as international brands increase efforts to regain market share, leading to more frequent promotional activities due to slower-than-expected inventory clearance [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Cost Management - Nike is implementing strategies to mitigate approximately $1 billion in incremental tariff costs by optimizing procurement and production distribution, aiming to reduce imports from China to the U.S. from 16% to a high single-digit percentage by the end of FY2026 [2][3]. - Collaboration with suppliers and retail partners is planned to minimize the impact of rising costs on consumers, with price increases phased in starting from Fall 2025 [2][3]. Group 4: Stock Recommendations - Anta Sports (2020 HK) is rated as outperform with a target price of 132 HKD, while companies like Feng Tay (9910 TT) and Stella (1836 HK) are rated underperform [5][6]. - The report highlights that despite ongoing revenue challenges for Nike in China, improved inventory management is expected to benefit Topsports (6110 HK) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 due to the end of technological upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategies recommended include LC09 - 11 calendar spread trading, shorting LC2511 at high prices, and selling call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 25.9% [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan (0.60%); the trading volume was 213,300 lots, down 134,429 lots (- 38.66%); the open interest was 322,535 lots, down 2,753 lots (- 0.85%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 63,340 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.51%); the trading volume was 20,140 lots, down 15,366 lots (- 43.28%); the open interest was 97,999 lots, up 950 lots (0.98%) [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread was 480 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (9.09%); the LC09 - 11 month - spread was 320 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (23%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread was - 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (- 13%) [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ore showed little change, except for the fastmarkets Li₂O:6% lithium ore, which decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton (- 0.37%) [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.41%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.4%); the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 52,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.08%); the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF for China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.1 dollars/kg, unchanged; the fastmarkets price was 8.05 dollars/kg, down 0.15 dollars/kg (- 1.82%) [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The electrolyte - lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen - electric - carbon spread was 420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (- 37.31%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF for Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 399.86 yuan/ton, up 26.51 yuan (7.10%) [21]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte remained unchanged [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract showed little change [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts was 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots compared to the previous day, with different changes in each warehouse or sub - warehouse [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints Methanol - High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. The market is in a period of bearish factors being realized. With macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider going long when the price is low [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level year - on - year. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [8] PP - The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard spreads are neutral. PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, with neutral raw material and finished - product inventories. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or more PDH plants are shut down for maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants is ongoing, with the load between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are okay. In June, macro factors such as the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision should be monitored. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants are under maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB400. The current static inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [11] Summary by Product Methanol - From June 30 to July 4, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2785 to 2455, a decrease of 330. The import profit decreased by 3, and the main contract basis decreased by 10. The MTO profit on the futures盘面 increased by 49 [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From June 30 to July 4, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price remained at 7200, the East China LL price increased by 10, and the East China LD price increased by 25. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract futures price decreased by 2. The basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts increased by 200 [8] PP - From June 30 to July 4, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6600 to 6550, a decrease of 50. The East China PP price decreased by 5, and the North China PP price increased by 20. The export profit remained unchanged, the main contract futures price increased by 4, and the basis decreased by 20. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [8] PVC - From June 30 to July 4, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2350, a decrease of 100. The import US dollar price (CFR China) decreased from 720 to 700. The export profit decreased from 602 to 465. The basis remained at - 80 [10][11]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/02 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 155 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2760 2505 2480 2600 2460 2580 286 347 258 340 -1243 2025/06/2 7 801 2820 2505 2460 2600 2460 2580 282 350 267 400 -1176 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 280 350 220 350 -1173 2025/07/0 1 801 2520 2480 2430 2550 2445 2543 280 350 220 90 -1208 日度变化 0 -265 -5 0 -50 0 0 0 0 0 -260 -35 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/01 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 285 346 160 240 -1163 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 155 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2760 2505 2480 2600 2460 2580 286 347 258 340 -1243 2025/06/2 7 801 2820 2505 2460 2600 2460 2580 282 350 267 400 -1176 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 282 350 267 350 -1173 日度变化 0 -35 -20 -30 0 -15 -37 0 0 0 -50 3 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings anticipates that Boeing's reduction of traditional 737 MAX inventory will aid in gradually restoring a more normal production and delivery rhythm [1] Group 1 - Boeing is expected to decrease its inventory of traditional 737 MAX aircraft [1] - This inventory reduction is projected to contribute positively to the company's production and delivery processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Burberry's proactive price reduction strategy has led to a significant recovery in its stock price, increasing over 70% since mid-April 2023, despite facing severe challenges in the luxury goods sector [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Burberry reported revenues of £2.461 billion, a 17% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit down 94% to £26 million [2][5]. - Comparable store sales fell by 12% for the fiscal year, with the Asia-Pacific market experiencing a 16% decline [3][5]. - The fourth quarter showed a narrowing decline in comparable store sales to 6%, better than the market expectation of 7.78% [5]. Strategic Changes - New CEO Joshua Schulman has implemented a strategic shift focusing on classic products and reducing prices, moving away from previous high-end strategies [6][7]. - The company plans to cut approximately 1,700 jobs, which is nearly 20% of its global workforce, aiming to save £60 million by fiscal year 2027 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - Japan was the only market to show growth for Burberry, with a slight increase of 1%, primarily driven by spending from Chinese tourists [4]. - The outlet channel has become increasingly important, with Burberry being referred to as the "Outlet Queen," as it has performed well despite challenges in high-end retail locations [8][10]. Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Burberry has faced significant inventory issues, leading to a 7% decrease in total inventory at constant exchange rates [11]. - The company's gross margin fell to 62.5%, down 470 basis points at constant exchange rates, primarily due to discounting actions to manage excess inventory [11].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/27 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 0 801 2750 2665 2525 2700 2480 2600 296 346 195 210 -1445 2025/06/2 3 801 2735 2643 2543 2700 2480 2633 295 346 171 210 -1350 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 285 346 160 240 -1163 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 160 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2460 2580 285 346 160 340 -1243 日度变化 0 0 0 0 0 -10 -10 0 0 0 90 -54 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值， ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Rabbit Baby Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Rabbit Baby, a company focused on the building materials industry, particularly in the production and distribution of wood-based panels and home decoration products. Key Points and Arguments Market Strategy and Revenue Growth - Rabbit Baby is actively pursuing channel penetration, focusing on mid-western cities and economically developed county-level towns, with expected revenue from town channels reaching 3.9 billion in 2023 and 9 billion in 2024, aiming to develop 1,500 stores by 2025 [2][5][4] - The furniture factory channel accounts for 39% of the company's total market channels, showing rapid growth, with a focus on particle board in northern markets and multi-layer and solid wood boards in southern regions [2][6] Product and Service Integration - The company has merged its panel and home decoration company channels to form a home decoration operation company, which is expected to generate nearly 14 billion in revenue in 2024, marking it as a significant growth point [2][8] - The engineering channel primarily targets public projects and has shifted from basic materials to quick-install materials like honeycomb aluminum fireproof panels [2][9] Supply Chain and Cost Management - Rabbit Baby maintains profit margins through strengthened supply chain management and cost control, ensuring supplier profitability while seeking cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][15] - The company has adjusted its product structure to include flooring and integrated wall products to boost sales and enhance customer loyalty through promotional activities [5][4] Retail and Online Strategy - The establishment of a new retail operation center aims to assist distributors in creating online stores, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu to drive orders [10][4] Performance and Risk Management - The company reported a slow market recovery in Q1 2025, with a slight rebound in April followed by a decline in May. The full custom home business saw growth in order volume during the same period [3][11] - Risk control is emphasized in the Qingdao business, focusing on managing accounts receivable and ensuring healthy operations for distributors [11][4] Competitive Landscape and Consumer Behavior - The company faces competition from small enterprises, with a significant number exiting the market, providing opportunities for leading brands to capture market share [15][16] - Consumer preferences vary by region, with northern markets favoring particle boards due to climatic conditions, while southern markets show a stronger preference for solid wood and multi-layer boards [18] Future Outlook and Dividend Strategy - The company plans to maintain stable or increasing absolute dividend amounts rather than focusing solely on dividend rates, with a target to match or exceed the 2024 dividend level of 0.28 per share [28] - There are no immediate plans to diversify into new business areas, with a focus on core operations and avoiding blind investments [28] Additional Important Insights - The company has implemented channel incentives to promote inventory turnover, ensuring that stock levels remain within reasonable limits [14][27] - The integration of high-margin products like gypsum boards and adhesives into the sales strategy is expected to enhance overall profitability [19][20] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Rabbit Baby's strategic initiatives, market positioning, and future outlook in the building materials industry.