情绪消费

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轻工行业2025年度中期投资策略:新消费蔚然成风,传统盘踵事增华
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-06 15:26
Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]
商贸零售行业周报:美丽田园股权结构优化,新氧青春诊所发展迅速-20250706
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-06 10:55
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of the "New Oxygen Youth Clinic" and the significant changes in the shareholding structure of "Beautiful Garden" following the exit of major shareholder CPE [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2152.72 points, down 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.40% [7][14] - The retail sector has seen a decline of 3.85% year-to-date [14][17] Industry Dynamics - CPE plans to sell approximately 51.33 million shares (about 21.77%) of "Beautiful Garden," leading to a significant change in the company's shareholding structure [5][24] - "New Oxygen" has transformed from an online platform to a chain of clinics, with a 551% year-on-year increase in revenue for its chain business in Q1 2025 [5][27] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated product capabilities and consumer insights in the gold and jewelry sector, recommending companies like "Old Shop Gold," "Chao Hong Ji," and "Zhou Dafu" [8][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies that actively adapt to trends, recommending "Yonghui Supermarket" and "Aiying Room" [8][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong differentiation, recommending "Mao Ge Ping," "Po Lai Ya," and "Shang Mei" [8][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending "Ai Mei Ke" and "Ke Di-B" [8][30] Company-Specific Insights - "Zhou Dafu" reported a revenue of 896.56 million HKD for FY2025, down 17.5%, with a focus on improving product structure and store quality [36][37] - "Old Shop Gold" achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion CNY for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a strong brand expansion strategy [31][32] - "Chao Hong Ji" reported a revenue of 2.252 billion CNY in Q1 2025, up 25.4%, driven by differentiated product offerings [39][40] - "Zhou Da Sheng" faced revenue pressure with a 47.3% decline in Q1 2025, but future growth potential is anticipated through brand optimization [42]
这届小孩哥,流行抠小电驴车标
虎嗅APP· 2025-07-05 10:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of electric scooters, particularly the "Nine Cow Extreme" brand, and the cultural phenomenon surrounding them, including theft of brand logos and modifications that reflect a new consumer culture among youth [7][35]. Group 1: Market Trends - The electric scooter market is experiencing a surge in popularity, particularly among teenagers and young adults, with brands like "Nine Cow Extreme" becoming status symbols [7][35]. - The demand for electric scooters has led to a significant increase in sales, with "Nine Cow Extreme" reporting over 20% revenue growth year-on-year [35]. - The phenomenon of logo theft has become widespread, with many owners reporting missing logos, indicating a cultural shift where these scooters are seen as more than just transportation [6][12][40]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly viewing electric scooters as a means of self-expression and social status, akin to luxury brands [20][22]. - The modification culture surrounding electric scooters is thriving, with owners spending significant amounts on upgrades, sometimes exceeding the original purchase price of the scooter [25][28]. - The article highlights a growing trend of "emotional consumption," where consumers derive satisfaction and identity from their modified scooters [24][30]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The electric scooter industry is witnessing a split, with new entrants like "Nine Cow Extreme" outperforming traditional brands, which are struggling to maintain market share [35]. - The modification market for electric scooters is robust, with repair shops reporting high demand for both repairs and customizations, indicating a vibrant aftermarket [25][26]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with numerous repair and modification shops emerging to cater to the growing number of electric scooter enthusiasts [26].
现在的消费是基于情绪!迪阿股份何磊:对真爱和牢靠的两性关系的呼唤,这种情绪会一直延续下去
Xin Lang Ke Ji· 2025-07-04 02:50
Core Insights - The current consumer behavior is heavily influenced by emotions, with social sentiment playing a significant role in purchasing decisions [1][4] - DR, a jewelry brand focused on true love and relationships, has seen a shift in its customer base towards younger couples, particularly those involved in marriage and proposals [3] Group 1: Market Trends - The number of marriages in China has declined significantly, from over 9 million annually a few years ago to around 6 million, indicating a market contraction of approximately one-third [3] - Despite the decline in new marriages, there remains a substantial market for anniversaries and other relationship milestones, suggesting that the overall customer base for DR may not necessarily shrink [3] Group 2: Consumer Preferences - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences from traditional diamond jewelry to alternative materials such as ancient gold and IP-related products, reflecting a broader change in material consumption [4] - DR has proactively adapted to these changes in consumer preferences, aligning its offerings with the emotional themes of love and relationships [4]
人货场重构消费生态,聚焦新消费机遇
HTSC· 2025-07-03 12:27
Group 1 - The consumer industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale expansion to quality upgrading, driven by policy incentives, technological iterations, and changes in consumer preferences and habits [1][14]. - The new consumer groups represented by Generation Z, the elderly, and women are pushing consumption demand towards personalization and quality [1][17]. - Domestic brands are experiencing sustained growth, with sensory experiences becoming the core touchpoint linking consumers and products [1][29]. Group 2 - The importance of domestic demand has been reaffirmed, with a shift in focus from short-term demand stimulation to systematically enhancing consumer willingness, supported by policies such as employment and entrepreneurship initiatives [2][50]. - From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [2]. Group 3 - Four major consumption trends are identified: the rise of domestic brands, emotional consumption, the silver economy, and AI+ consumption [3][4]. - The silver economy is driven by an aging population, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above exceeding 14% in 2021, and expected to surpass 30% by 2035 [21][23]. - Emotional consumption is characterized by a shift from functional to self-rewarding and social value, with consumers willing to pay for emotional value [3][20]. Group 4 - The report recommends focusing on structural opportunities in the consumer sector, highlighting four core investment themes: the rise of domestic brands, high-growth emotional consumption, the burgeoning silver economy, and AI+ consumption [4][18]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment, including domestic brands like Lao Pu Gold, Shangmei Co., and Midea, as well as emotional consumption leaders like Pop Mart and Heytea [5][4]. Group 5 - The integration of AI into the consumer chain is emphasized, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong product innovation capabilities [3][4]. - The rise of online sales driven by live streaming and e-commerce is reshaping the retail landscape, with online retail sales reaching 6.0 billion in the first five months of 2025, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth [41][40]. Group 6 - The sensory experience is becoming a core value of brands, with consumers increasingly demanding high-quality sensory interactions [32][39]. - The marketing landscape is shifting towards decentralized models, with KOL and KOC marketing gaining prominence, allowing brands to achieve precise targeting and higher ROI [49][40].
时尚消费 | 年轻人都在为什么而买单?品牌该如何应对?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 15:47
Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving consumer psychology of young people, particularly those born in the 90s and 00s, highlighting their unique purchasing behaviors and preferences for emotional value over practicality [3][5][11] - It emphasizes the importance of brands establishing emotional connections with consumers, moving beyond traditional marketing strategies to engage with the emotional needs of the younger demographic [4][8][9] Group 1: Young Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to personalized and niche products, with trends like Lolita fashion becoming mainstream, reflecting a shift towards the acceptance of subcultures [3][5] - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with brands like Nike and Adidas adapting their marketing strategies to create deeper emotional connections with consumers [4][11] - The difference in consumer logic between generations is evident, with older consumers prioritizing practicality and brand reliability, while younger consumers focus on emotional value and identity representation [5][11] Group 2: Brand Strategies - Brands are encouraged to redefine their identity and marketing strategies to resonate with the emotional needs of consumers, moving from a fixed image to a more flexible and open approach [8][9] - Successful brands like Pop Mart and Jellycat have capitalized on emotional branding by creating products with personality and stories, allowing them to maintain consumer loyalty despite higher price points [5][11] - The need for brands to adapt to rapidly changing consumer preferences is critical, requiring a balance between maintaining core values and being responsive to market trends [9][12]
年轻人的钱包,被丑东西“做局”了
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-01 10:02
Core Viewpoint - The rise of "ugly" custom merchandise, particularly the "mouse dry" figures, reflects a growing trend in consumer culture where unconventional aesthetics are embraced, driven by social media and a desire for unique, personalized items [3][30][42] Group 1: Product Characteristics - "Mouse dry" figures are characterized by their rough craftsmanship and limited filling, allowing for abstract shapes due to internal wire structures [3] - The affordability of these figures, often priced lower than a cup of milk tea, contributes to their popularity among consumers [5] - The figures have gained traction in various fandoms, particularly among players of games like "Persona 5" and "Identity V," showcasing their versatility as collectibles [8][10] Group 2: Cultural Impact - The phenomenon of "ugly" merchandise has permeated various interest circles, with fans creating custom figures of their favorite characters, thus enhancing community engagement [10][18] - The appeal of these products is linked to a broader "ugly culture" among younger consumers, who find novelty and humor in unconventional aesthetics [30][42] - Social media platforms have played a significant role in popularizing these items, with discussions often highlighting their "companionship" qualities, making them suitable for various life scenarios [32][40] Group 3: Market Trends - E-commerce platforms have recognized the demand for personalized and custom products, leading to significant growth in the "individual customization" sector, with transaction volumes increasing by over 20% during key shopping events [40][42] - The success of "mouse dry" figures indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards unique, often humorous products that challenge traditional notions of beauty and design [24][30] - Despite their niche appeal, the market for these products is expanding, with some custom items achieving sales figures exceeding ten thousand units [42]
医美化妆品5月月报:美丽田园股东CPE退出主要股东,618强品牌美妆龙头和新锐功效品牌脱颖而出-20250701
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-01 09:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end brands and emerging effective brands in the beauty and medical aesthetics sectors, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, which saw a total e-commerce sales of 8,556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [8][36] - The medical aesthetics market is expected to grow significantly with the approval of new products, such as the first compliant lipolytic injection in China, which is projected to expand the market from 135 million yuan in 2023 to 805 million yuan by 2025 [31][32] Summary by Sections Market Review - The beauty care index rose by 2.55% in May 2025, ranking 14th among all primary industries, underperforming the overall market [16] - In May, the top performers in the medical aesthetics sector included Kedi-B (+61.3%), Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+36.1%), and East China Pharmaceutical (+15.1%) [21][26] - In the cosmetics sector, the leading companies were Lafang Jiahua (+28.0%), Shuiyang Co. (+24.5%), and Babi Co. (+19.1%) [27][29] Medical Aesthetics - The approval of Mai Nuo Wei's "Xian Su" injection marks a significant breakthrough in the domestic lipolytic market, with a projected market size increase to 8.05 billion yuan by 2025 [31][32] - The exit of CPE as a major shareholder in Meili Tianyuan is expected to optimize the company's governance structure and enhance its market position [32] Cosmetics - The 618 shopping festival saw a total GMV of 659.09 billion yuan in the beauty category, with international high-end brands showing resilience and growth due to strong brand effects [8][41] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and Han Shu led the sales on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, with significant growth rates for new brands [44] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong domestic beauty brands and those benefiting from high-growth segments, highlighting companies like Shangmei Co., Maogeping, and Pechoin as key investment opportunities [47][48] - In the medical aesthetics sector, companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B are recommended for their potential growth driven by new product launches and market expansion [47][48] Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards "emotional consumption" in the beauty sector, with consumers increasingly seeking products that offer aesthetic and therapeutic benefits [48] - The overall market is expected to continue evolving with new product introductions and innovative marketing strategies as the industry enters a seasonal transition [49]
博物馆用网红文创拉动“情绪消费”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 04:54
Core Insights - The popularity of collectible souvenirs in China has led museums to capitalize on this trend by launching new cultural and creative product lines to address budget shortfalls [2][3] - The resurgence of domestic tourism has increased visitor numbers to cultural venues, but many public cultural institutions are operating at a loss due to high management costs despite offering free or low-cost entry [2] - The total number of museum visitors in China is projected to reach 1.491 billion in 2024, with cultural product sales expected to generate revenue of 3.428 billion yuan [2] Industry Trends - The demand for museum cultural products is driven by consumers' desire to connect with their national history, allowing them to engage with the past at a relatively low cost [3] - The rapid growth in demand for cultural souvenirs is positively impacting related industries, with nearly 20,000 jobs created in the cultural product sector linked to the China National Museum [3] - Young consumers in China are increasingly willing to make impulse purchases, contributing to the growth of the cultural product industry [3] Challenges and Opportunities - The museum cultural product industry faces significant growth potential but must address the risk of product homogenization, as successful designs quickly lead to imitation by competitors [4] - Experts suggest that museums should focus on creating personalized interactive experiences to differentiate their products and meet consumer desires for self-expression [4]
彻底沸腾!刚刚,千亿黑马暴涨!
券商中国· 2025-06-30 07:44
Core Viewpoint - The explosive growth of Lao Pu Gold is attributed to its recent store openings in high-end locations, which have significantly boosted sales and market interest in the new consumption sector in Hong Kong [1][5][7]. Group 1: Company Performance - On June 30, Lao Pu Gold's stock price surged over 18%, reaching a historical high of over 1000 HKD per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 170 billion HKD [3][4]. - The opening of the new store in Shanghai's IFC Mall on June 28 featured promotional activities that attracted long queues, with wait times approaching 2 hours, indicating strong consumer interest [5][6]. - The company has also expanded internationally, opening its first store in Singapore on June 21, strategically located near popular tourist attractions, which is expected to enhance brand visibility and sales [6][7]. Group 2: Market Trends - The new consumption sector is experiencing a shift, with brands that offer differentiated products gaining traction among younger consumers, driven by emotional consumption [9][10]. - The competitive landscape in the gold and jewelry industry is evolving, with high-end and fashionable gold products benefiting from this trend [9]. - The rise of online platforms and social media is influencing consumer behavior, making them important indicators for investment in the new consumption space [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Singapore store's performance could surpass that of existing high-performing locations, indicating strong potential for future growth in Southeast Asia [7]. - The company plans to continue expanding its presence in high-end commercial centers in China, with additional openings planned in Shanghai [5][7]. - Despite high price-to-earnings ratios, the growth potential remains attractive, as indicated by a PEG ratio below 1, suggesting room for stock price appreciation [11].