食品饮料周报 白酒持续调整，关注高景气大众 品 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月16日 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 食品行业 风险提示：1）宏观经济疲软的风险；2）行业竞争加剧风险；3）重大食品安全事件的风险。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-5.31%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金种子酒（-1.28%）、顺鑫农业（-1.60%）、伊力特（- 2.09%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为金徽酒（-8.33%）、今世缘（-8.80%）、古井贡酒（-9.78%）。 观点：白酒持续调整，期待后续改善。白酒板块持续调整，上周白酒指数下跌5.31%。据今日 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage industry outperformed the CSI 300 index from January to May 2025, with a decline of 1.52%, surpassing the index by approximately 0.89 percentage points [6][15][16] - The industry valuation has decreased, with a current PE (TTM) of about 21 times, below the five-year average of 34 times [20][24] - Positive consumer policy signals have been established, with significant government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [24][27] Group 2 - The liquor sector is experiencing weak demand and internal differentiation, with a notable decline in sales during the Dragon Boat Festival [28] - Liquor companies are controlling supply to maintain prices, with several major brands implementing stock control measures [29][31] - Companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are engaging in share buybacks to boost market confidence [34][36] Group 3 - The beer sector is showing stable performance with expectations for marginal improvement in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand [4][14] - The condiment sector is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in the restaurant industry, leading to increased demand for condiments [5][18] - The dairy sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics due to favorable fertility policies [22][24] Group 4 - The snack sector is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on multi-channel penetration to enhance brand influence [25][27] - The overall performance of the snack sector is mixed, with some brands outperforming others [27][45]

Core Insights - The "618" shopping festival has seen a significant increase in consumer interest in food and beverage products, particularly in health-oriented categories, driven by various promotional initiatives from e-commerce platforms [1][2][4] Consumer Trends - 42.6% of consumers purchased food products, while 40.2% bought beverages during the "618" event, indicating a strong focus on these categories [2][3] - Nearly 40% of consumers view food and beverage products as tools for health management, with 56.6% using them for emotional regulation and 50.1% for energy replenishment [2][4] Health-Oriented Consumption - Health has become a key trend in food and beverage consumption, with 43.8% of consumers expressing greater concern for health and wellness [4][5] - 34.5% of consumers have increased their budget for health-oriented food products, while 48.1% are paying more attention to different types of healthy foods [4][5] Product Preferences - Consumers are increasingly favoring low-calorie, low-sugar, and low-fat products, with 52.5% preferring low-sugar and low-fat options [5][12] - Functional health foods and high-nutrition products are gaining traction, with 45.2% and 41.9% of consumers respectively choosing these options [5][12] E-commerce Dynamics - 66.3% of consumers trust the quality of health food products on JD Supermarket, and 85.4% are likely to purchase health-related items from this platform [7][14] - JD Supermarket's product variety and pricing advantages are recognized by 70.3% of consumers, positioning it as a leading choice for health food purchases [7][14] Weight Management Initiatives - The "Weight Management Year" initiative has led to 81.7% of consumers engaging in weight management activities, with 68.4% focusing on dietary adjustments [11][12] - Consumers are cautious about weight loss products, with 40.1% viewing them as supplementary tools rather than primary solutions [14][15] Market Outlook - The demand for health-oriented food and beverage products is driving a robust recovery in the consumer market, supported by e-commerce supply [14][15]

6月10日，A股早盘窄幅震荡，截至9:37，沪指涨0.08%，深成指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.13%。 盘面上，以创新药为首的医药股继续活跃，众生药业、昂利康涨停；足球概念持续火热，共创草坪7连板。下跌方面，军工、半导体、贵金属、消费电子等 板块跌幅居前。 天风证券认为，6月以稳应变，防守反击。根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：Deepseek突破与开源引领的科技AI+，消费股的 估值修复和消费分层逐步复苏，低估红利继续崛起。红利回撤常在有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于AI产业趋势的进展，而AI产业 趋势的进展又取决于AI应用端和消费端的突破。消费板块投资的核心因子是估值，在当前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化下复苏周期抬头(哪怕是很 弱的斜率)，以宏观叙事而对消费过分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒生互联网。 2、中金公司：下半年市场波动率或前低后高 指数有望前稳后升 焦点个股方面，换股吸收合并预案出炉，中科曙光复牌一字涨停，封单金额超168亿元，海光信息大涨超8%。消息面上，6月9日晚间，海光信息和中科曙光 双双公告披露换股吸收合并预案。海光信息拟以0.5525：1的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [2][11]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes: 1) Leading liquor companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Luzhou Laojiao, which is showing signs of digital transformation and valuation recovery; 3) Companies like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that have potential for market share growth [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches being significant developments [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and improving brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and channel management for liquor companies [2][11]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, benefiting from a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies enhancing efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's EPS is forecasted at 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][30] Core Viewpoints - The consumer goods sector is showing structural prosperity, with traditional consumption revitalizing [5] - The report highlights the importance of understanding consumer needs and innovating in products, channels, and marketing to stimulate consumption potential [5] - Investment opportunities are seen in the snack and beverage sectors, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Three Squirrels [5] Summary by Sections Alcohol Industry - The liquor index (CITIC) has a cumulative decline of -0.84% this week, with leading stocks like Jinhui Liquor (+6.25%) and Huangtai Liquor (+5.03%) showing positive performance [5] - Moutai has announced a buyback progress, reinforcing market confidence, with a total buyback of 5.1 billion yuan, accounting for 0.2635% of total shares [5] - Future expectations include a recovery in the consumption environment supported by policies, with recommendations for high-end and next-tier liquor brands [5] Food Industry - The food index (CITIC) has a cumulative decline of -0.34% this week, with stocks like *ST Chuntian (+15.38%) and Youyou Food (+9.57%) performing well [5] - The report indicates a structural prosperity in consumer goods, driven by generational differences in spending intentions and the emergence of new consumption categories that meet emotional and health needs [5] - Companies that effectively innovate based on consumer insights are likely to unlock consumption potential [5] Key Company Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, with recommendations for leading firms such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili Group [29]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong upward trend, particularly in sectors such as short videos, e-commerce, automotive, and domestic fashion, with significant gains in stocks like Kuaishou-W, Meituan-W, and Li Auto-W [1] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) showed a high turnover rate exceeding 7%, indicating strong market interest and activity [1] - New consumption and value growth are expected to progress in parallel, with structural benefits driven by new channels and product innovations, particularly in snacks, health products, and food additives [1] Group 2 - Traditional food and beverage leaders are achieving robust growth through strong product innovation and channel expansion, particularly in the beer and beverage sectors [1] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF tracks the Hong Kong Consumption Index, which reflects a higher proportion of new consumption categories compared to the A-share market, focusing on e-commerce, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and more [1] - Recent policy directions emphasize increasing income for low- to middle-income groups and developing service consumption, indicating that consumption, especially service consumption, will be a key focus for future economic policies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor market is experiencing sluggish sales, while attention should be paid to beer and other seasonal consumption [51]. - The SW food and beverage industry index fell by 1.83% from May 23 to June 5, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.90 percentage points [13]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the soft drink sector seeing the largest increase of 8.72% [15]. - Approximately 70% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Junyao Health (+62.74%) and Miaokelando (+21.27%) [17]. - The overall industry valuation is below the five-year average, with a current PE (TTM) of approximately 21.40 times, compared to the historical average of 34 times [21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.83% from May 23 to June 5, 2025 [13]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the soft drink sector leading at an increase of 8.72% [15]. - About 70% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with significant gains from Junyao Health and Miaokelando [17]. Industry Data Tracking White Liquor Sector - The prices of major white liquor brands, such as Feitian and Guojiao 1573, have decreased recently, indicating market pressure [24]. Seasonality and Consumer Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring seasonal consumption trends, particularly in beer and soft drinks, as the industry enters a peak consumption period [51]. Valuation Metrics - The current industry PE (TTM) is approximately 21.40 times, which is below the five-year average of 34 times, suggesting potential undervaluation [21]. Key Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other regional liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) [51]. - In the broader consumer goods sector, companies like Haitian Flavoring (603288), Qingdao Beer (600600), and Yili (600887) are highlighted for their growth potential [51].

家人们，今儿这大盘走得可真够磨人的！三大指数早盘集体低开震荡，截至午盘创业板指跌了0.48%，沪指勉强守住红盘边儿。作为在财经圈泡了20年的老 炮儿，帮主郑重得跟大伙儿念叨念叨，这盘面背后藏着啥门道。 农药板块今儿也挺给面儿，长青股份、先达股份这些票涨停。这可不是瞎炒——欧洲那边闹了虫灾，农药需求暴增，咱们国内龙头正好借机出口。更关键的 是，国内春耕旺季刚过，库存消化得差不多了，下半年可能迎来补库周期，这才是机构悄悄布局的底层逻辑。 再说说跌得惨的板块：足球概念、宠物经济这些新消费板块跌得稀里哗啦，金陵体育跌超10%，豪悦护理、天元宠物也跟泄了气的皮球似的。说白了，还是 消费复苏不及预期闹的——老百姓手里钱紧，非必要消费自然先往后排。不过换个角度看，这些板块跌出性价比后，反而可能藏着中长线机会，得持续跟踪 三季度的消费数据。 最后给大伙儿划重点：现在市场就像在走钢丝，主板卡在3300点不上不下，创业板还在磨底。作为中长线投资者，咱得有点"钓鱼"的耐心——有色金属板块 可以关注期货价格走势，算力板块盯着政策落地节奏，消费板块等旺季数据验证。记住了，别被日内波动牵着鼻子走，咱们要钓的是大鱼，不是眼前的虾 米。 我 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the consumer sector, with the Hang Seng Index showing positive movement and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) gaining 0.12% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which includes 50 large-cap, liquid consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the warehouse index for May was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion for seven consecutive months, with strong demand in food, agricultural products, home appliances, and daily necessities [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities noted that the process of consumer recovery is gradual and characterized by a spiral upward trend, indicating that the worst phase of consumption has passed [2] - The consumption data for the Dragon Boat Festival this year was deemed average and in line with expectations, suggesting a slow recovery process influenced by various policy measures [2] - The company remains optimistic about long-term investment opportunities in the consumer sector, driven by policies aimed at stabilizing income and short-term benefits from consumption vouchers [2]