本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源赘述在文章结尾 ——【·前言·】——» 36万亿美元，一个惊人的数字，让美国领导人深感压力。它沉重地压在美国经济之上，也为特朗普的再 次当选蒙上阴影。 为了化解这场迫在眉睫的债务难题，特朗普采取了一系列大胆却备受争议的措施，力图扭转乾坤。 他们一方面试图削减政府开支，另一方面又发起贸易战，甚至公开质疑美联储的政策，每一步都像一场 风险极高的赌博，赌注是美国的未来和全球经济的稳定。 这些决策的影响深远，充满不确定性。 ——【·债务危机的成因与特朗普的挑战·】——» 美国债务问题积累已久，并非一朝一夕形成。 冷战结束后，美国成为世界头号强国，积极参与国际事务，承担了许多责任。 高昂的军费和频繁的海外军事行动，无疑让美国花费了大量金钱。 与此同时，国内各种福利政策持续增加，也让的财政压力越来越大。 这两方面因素共同作用，导致美国长期处于财政赤字状态，债务问题日益严重。 为了促进经济增长，美国长期保持较低的借贷成本，使得大量资金流入了房地产和股票等市场，从而产 生了巨大的资产泡沫。 由于开支超过收入，为了弥补这个越来越大的资金缺口，美国只能不断发行国债来借钱还债。 这种以债养债的做法， ...

Group 1 - The core message revolves around the misconception that the U.S. must repay $6 trillion in national debt in June, which is actually a misunderstanding of the debt rollover process [1][3][5] - The U.S. national debt currently stands at $31.4 trillion, equating to approximately $94,000 per citizen, highlighting the scale of the debt issue [3][7] - The actual requirement in June is to refinance approximately $6 trillion in maturing debt, with the government needing to issue new bonds to cover old debt principal, only paying interest during this period [5][7] Group 2 - The political dynamics involve former President Trump pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, which could lead to inflationary risks reminiscent of the 1970s [9][14] - The Federal Reserve faces a complex decision-making environment, balancing inflation control, employment promotion, and managing government debt, with historical data indicating a high likelihood of policy shifts during election years [16][18] - The rising interest rates have significantly increased the cost of new debt issuance, with new bond rates climbing from 1.5% in 2019 to 5% currently, leading to higher annual interest payments [11][20] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury's issuance of new debt reached a record $23 trillion last year, with 98% allocated to refinancing old debt, creating a "debt spiral" situation [12][20] - The current interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion, surpassing military and healthcare expenditures, indicating a critical fiscal challenge [12][20] - The erosion of the dollar's dominance is evident as countries reduce their holdings of U.S. debt, with China’s holdings dropping from $1.32 trillion in 2013 to $848 billion in 2023 [23][30] Group 4 - The ongoing political maneuvering, particularly by Trump, aims to create a narrative of economic crisis to influence monetary policy and public sentiment ahead of elections [27][29] - The Federal Reserve's independence is increasingly challenged by political pressures, complicating its ability to manage monetary policy effectively [27][36] - The potential for a significant financial crisis looms as the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 123%, raising alarms about the sustainability of current fiscal practices [36][38]

王爷说财经讯：你能想象吗？美国总统特朗普大打关税战，这背后竟然隐藏着1个惊人秘密："狸猫换太子"式的美债清洗计划！特朗普故意让美债崩跌，然 后让全球买单！为什么这样说？一起来看看几个数据吧！ 大家仔细想想，特朗普故意让美债、美元下跌，各国一慌就赶紧抛售，美债、美元价值降低，美国的债务可不就相当于"缩水"了嘛。 而且特朗普还高调宣称，美国拥有最多黄金，之后再让美元上涨，继续称霸全球货币领域。 说到这儿，不得不提美国经济面临的"老大难"问题——沉重的美债负担。 据美国财政部最新公开数据显示，2024年，美国政府光是为35.3万亿美元的美国债务支付的利息就首次突破1万亿美元大关。今年年初，美国国债更是突破 36万亿美元大关，创下历史新高。 4月28日消息，据外媒报道，一些经济学家和分析人士分析出了一个惊人的可能性——美国总统特朗普或许正谋划着一场"狸猫换太子"式的美债清洗计划。 他很可能以 当年尼克松让黄金与美元脱钩的"尼克松震撼"为蓝本，打算让美元与比特币挂钩，把虚拟货币列为战略性储备资产。 这一招要是成了，那可不得了，全世界都得为美国债务"买单"，美元还能稳稳地维持其重要地位。 而台湾《商业周刊》总主笔——吕国 ...

每经记者 岳楚鹏 郑雨航 每经编辑 易启江 王嘉琦 2025年4月，特朗普对美联储的独立性发起挑战，多次暗示可能将现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）免职。 太和智库高级研究员、中国现代国际关系研究院前副院长王在邦向《每日经济新闻》记者（简称每经记者）表示，特朗普宣称罢免鲍威尔，迅速向市场传 递一个美元要"完蛋"的信号，引起金融市场恐慌。美联储丧失独立性是推倒美元霸权的第一张多米诺骨牌，相当于投向美元信用的一枚核弹。 美联储的独立性自1913年成立以来便是美国金融体系的核心原则，若特朗普强行罢免鲍威尔，将首次打破这一百年传统，使美联储沦为政治工具，削弱其 专业性和公信力。 1 独立性是美联储的立身之本 4月17日，特朗普称鲍威尔"玩弄政治""越早走人越好"，并放言"如果我想让他走人，他很快就得走"。 4月21日，特朗普还称鲍威尔是"太迟先生""一个大失败者"，并警告称，如果鲍威尔不马上降息，美国经济将出现放缓。 美国总统和美联储主席的冲突，并不是今天才存在的，而是从美联储创立之初就根植在政府和美联储之间。 | | | 历史上总统向美联储施压案例和最终结果 | | | 170 | | -- ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is experiencing significant economic challenges, highlighted by a global tariff war initiated by Trump, leading to rising prices and consumer panic [1][3] - The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan has plummeted, indicating a severe decline in public sentiment [1] - The U.S. international credibility has diminished, with the share of oil transactions in U.S. dollars dropping from 70% to 58% [1] Group 2 - The wealth gap in the U.S. has widened dramatically, with the top 10% of the population holding 52% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% saw a 7.3% decrease in real income [3] - Large-scale protests have erupted, with participation peaking at 5 million, reflecting widespread public discontent [3] - Political trust is eroding, with 57% of the population perceiving government policies as inconsistent [3] Group 3 - China is managing to withstand the impacts of the tariff war due to its robust manufacturing base, with all 41 industrial categories represented [3] - The semiconductor industry in China is accelerating its development, with 592 new chip design companies established in 2024 [3] - The share of cross-border payments in Renminbi has surpassed 12%, and the subscription rate for panda bonds reached 137% [3] Group 4 - The U.S. is facing a liquidity crisis in its treasury market, with rising interest payments consuming a large portion of fiscal revenue [3] - The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes are causing international capital to flee from dollar assets [3] - The global reserve share of the U.S. dollar has fallen below 49%, indicating a shift in the international financial landscape [3]

四是美国债作为全球安全资产的声誉被严重削弱。白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰近期在一份报 告中提出，未来要"强制"外国投资者将所持美债置换为超长期低息债券，并限制投资者直接在市场上出 售这些美债。如果外国投资者拒绝"合作"，美国政府将会对这些投资者的投资收益征收高额税收。这种 金融霸凌行径将会严重侵蚀美国债的声誉和信用。在相关预期作用下，当前外国主权投资者购买美国债 的意愿明显下降，这也将导致美国债收益率上升。 近期，美国滥施关税政策对国际金融市场造成直接冲击，美国股市、债市、汇市出现了三者齐跌的罕见 现象。其中，美国10年期国债收益率由4月4日的4.01%一度升至4月11日的4.49%，创下自2001 年"9·11"事件以来的最大单周涨幅。收益率飙升对应的是美债价格的大幅下跌，进而引发全球对美国债 市场系统性风险的普遍担忧。 4月以来，美长期国债收益率快速上升及其导致的市场巨震，主要受四重因素驱动： 一是美国政府滥施关税引发美国经济再通胀预期。市场预测，仅美国对华关税加征至245%这一举动， 就将显著推高其进口商品价格，恶化美国中低收入群体生活水平，并推高其未来通胀预期。通胀预期升 高导致美联储降息空间收 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the strategic misjudgment by the U.S. regarding China, highlighting that the U.S. underestimated China's determination and response to tariffs [1][3] - It mentions that the U.S. has faced significant challenges in its trade war with China, with American retailers warning about the consequences of ongoing tariffs [1][5] - The article indicates that China has successfully shifted its orders from the U.S. to other countries, making it difficult for the U.S. to revert to previous trade conditions even if it softens its stance [7] Group 2 - The article points out that the U.S. is struggling with internal economic pressures, including the Federal Reserve's decision not to lower interest rates amidst a challenging trade environment [5] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has not secured any new trade agreements with other countries, which complicates its position in the ongoing trade conflict [7] - The article suggests that the timeline for significant changes in U.S. trade policy is limited, as the upcoming midterm elections may restrict the administration's ability to enact substantial reforms [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's tariff strategy is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of trade deficits and the decline of American manufacturing, which are rooted in structural problems related to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1][11]. Group 1: Trade Deficits - Trump's perception of trade deficits as a loss is criticized as a flawed logic, equating it to a one-sided transaction [1][3]. - The trade deficit is primarily driven by the dollar's unique position as the global reserve currency, leading to high demand and appreciation of the dollar, which in turn raises production costs in the U.S. [3][6]. - The U.S. has a long-standing reliance on imports due to high domestic production costs, resulting in a growing trade deficit [8][11]. Group 2: Manufacturing Challenges - The high cost of labor in the U.S. due to the dollar's strength makes domestic manufacturing less competitive compared to imports [3][8]. - Trump's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs is deemed impractical, as it does not address the fundamental cost issues associated with U.S. production [9][10]. Group 3: National Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $34.5 trillion, with annual interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion, highlighting a significant fiscal challenge [16][18]. - The increasing reliance on short-term debt due to high interest rates poses additional risks, with a substantial amount of debt maturing soon [19][20]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - While tariffs could generate significant revenue (estimated at over $800 billion from a 20% tariff on $4.11 trillion in imports), they do not fundamentally resolve the underlying economic issues [23][24]. - The tariffs may serve as a negotiating tool to encourage other countries to lower their tariffs on U.S. products, potentially alleviating some trade imbalances [26][32]. Group 5: Global Economic Dynamics - The article suggests that Trump's tariffs are partly aimed at forcing countries to choose sides in the global economic landscape, particularly against China, which has become a significant competitor in manufacturing [34][38]. - The potential for increased prices and inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs could undermine the country's global credibility and economic stability [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article concludes that regardless of the effectiveness of Trump's policies, the U.S. may face a period of economic hardship, necessitating resilience and adaptability from both the U.S. and its trading partners [40][41].

谁掌握了货币霸权，谁就掌握了国际事物的话语权，这是当今世界经济发展过程中的一个基本共识。 自从二战以后，以美元为主导的全球货币体系开始逐渐建立起来，发展到目前，仍然稳固。 不少国家也开始担心起自己会像俄罗斯那样被冻结海外的资金账户 。 随着2020年全球新冠疫情的影响，世界各主要经济体出现了严重的经济衰退现象。以美元为主导的世界 货币体系，也在风云变幻的国际政治、经济形式中出现了裂痕，尤其是3大国的主权货币，正在向美元 发起不同程度的冲击， 一、美元霸权 美元霸权由二战以后签订的《布雷顿森林体系》开始正式确立，美元能够成为唯一与黄金挂钩的货币是 有美国自身强大的经济实力支撑的。由于地理位置的优越，两次世界大战都没有延烧到美国本土， 使美国的经济在很长的一段时间内得到了飞跃性的发展 。 1919年，美国对外贸易总额占到了世界外贸总额的40%，顺差达到了158亿美元。两次世界大战，先后 对欧洲国家经济造成了重创，传统的世界霸主，虽然顶着"日不落帝国"的称号。 但已经是一个名存实亡的霸主，英镑的货币霸主地位遭到了重创，美元就是在这个时候接过了货币霸主 的地位 。 1971年以后，金本位制度彻底退出历史舞台，主权信用 ...

来源|凤凰网财经 特朗普或 创下 "尴尬"新纪录 。 据财联社报道， 自 1月20日特朗普重返白宫至4月25日，美元指数累计下跌近9% ， 料将 创下 1973年尼克松时代以来美国总统任期前100天的 最大跌幅。这一表现与1973年 " 尼克松冲击 " 时期形成历史性呼应 ——彼时布雷顿森林体系崩溃引发全球抛售美元，而如今特朗普反复无常的关 税威胁、对美联储独立性的干预，以及对传统国际秩序根基的动摇，正重演"去美元化"浪潮。 瑞银、德银接连下调美元预期，押注贸易谈判转机；对冲基金美元净空头头寸达 100亿美元，创2024年来新高；部分投资者预期汽车关税豁免等政 策回旋可能。市场博弈下是衰退信号，还是政策倒逼策略？ 数据显示，自尼克松第二任期开启至拜登执政前，美国总统任内前 100天美元平均回报率为0.9%，而特朗普的政策已使美元成为全球资本的"弃 儿"。欧元、瑞郎和日元兑美元汇率涨幅均超8%，黄金价格同步攀升，蒙特利尔银行指出："美元作为储备货币的三大支柱——制度信任、自由贸 易和稳定外交政策正在瓦解。" 01 历史重现——布雷顿森林体系崩塌与美元"假死" 1971年8月15日，尼克松宣布美元与黄金脱钩，这场 ...