中美贸易摩擦

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豆粕:逐步转向美豆天气交易,盘面暂时震荡,豆一:现货稳定,盘面区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 11:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the coming week (May 26 - May 30), both the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, the negative factors have been priced in, and there is limited downside, but there is no clear positive driver, so the price is expected to oscillate, and the focus will gradually shift to the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas. For domestic soybeans, the limited remaining supply and firm spot prices are supportive, while the potential state reserve release is a resistance, so the price is expected to trade in a range [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Movements Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **U.S. Soybean Futures**: The U.S. soybean futures prices first rose due to concerns about floods in Argentina and slow spring - sowing progress, as well as short - covering, and then fell due to concerns about an escalating U.S. - EU trade war. The weekly increase of the U.S. soybean main 07 contract was 0.93%, and that of the U.S. soybean meal main 07 contract was 1.47% [1]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures**: Domestic soybean meal futures prices first fell due to weak spot markets and then rose because of the rebound of the spot market, the reduced marginal impact of previous negative factors, and the rebound of U.S. soybeans. The weekly increase of the domestic soybean meal main m2509 contract was 1.83%. Domestic soybean futures prices first rose and then fell. The support came from the firm spot price and limited remaining supply, while the resistance was the expected state reserve release. The weekly increase of the domestic soybean main a2507 contract was 0.10% [2]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **U.S. Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of U.S. soybeans decreased week - on - week, in line with expectations. In the week ending May 15, the 2024/25 U.S. soybean export shipment was about 250,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 42%, and the cumulative export shipment was about 44.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.41 million tons (compared with about 23.7 million tons last year). The total weekly net sales of the current and next market years were about 325,000 tons (compared with about 770,000 tons the previous week) [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Planting Progress**: As of the week ending May 19, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 66% (market expectation: 65%), 52% last year, and the five - year average was 53%, which was slightly bearish [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean CNF Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Margin**: As of the week ending May 23, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - August delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly, and the average crushing margin increased [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Main - Producing Area Weather Forecast**: From May 25 to June 7, the precipitation in the U.S. soybean main - producing areas will be slightly above normal, and the temperature will be low first and then high, which will mainly have a neutral impact on the planting progress [2]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, mainly due to the large - scale trading of far - month basis futures. The average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills was about 390,000 tons, compared with about 80,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 179,000 tons, compared with about 157,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. The weekly average was about - 4 yuan/ton, compared with about 168 yuan/ton the previous week and about - 89 yuan/ton last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending May 16, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 34% and a year - on - year decrease of about 83% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase slightly next week. The weekly crushing volume was about 2.21 million tons (compared with 1.91 million tons the previous week and 2.01 million tons last year), and the operating rate was about 62% (compared with 54% the previous week and 57% last year). Next week, the crushing volume is expected to be about 2.25 million tons (compared with 2.16 million tons last year), and the operating rate will be 57% (compared with 61% last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: The成交 rate of the imported soybean auction was about 32%, and the成交 price decreased. On May 21, the planned auction volume was about 266,700 tons, the actual成交 volume was about 85,600 tons, and the average price was about 3,540 yuan/ton (compared with about 3,643 yuan/ton on May 13) [4]. 4. Domestic Soybean Spot Market Last Week (May 19 - May 23) - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was firm. In Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was 4,180 - 4,280 yuan/ton, basically flat or up 40 yuan/ton in some areas; in the Inner - Pass region, it was 5,100 - 5,240 yuan/ton, flat; in the sales areas, the price of Northeast edible soybeans was 4,580 - 4,820 yuan/ton, up 60 - 100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Northeast Production Area Situation**: Most of the new - season crop sowing in the Northeast has been completed. Some farmers are reluctant to sell, and traders are facing difficulties in sourcing, so they are turning to platform auctions. The market is still waiting for the state reserve release [5]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The soybean price in the sales areas increased due to the increase in the origin price, but the demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the trading volume of dealers is slow [5].
新闻调查丨应对贸易摩擦 中国玩具外贸企业突出重围
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-05-24 20:40
Core Insights - The toy industry in Chenghai, Shantou, China, is a significant global player, producing about one-third of the world's plastic toys, with over 60,000 companies involved in a comprehensive supply chain from design to export [1][3] - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have led to increased tariffs, significantly impacting the operations and profitability of toy manufacturers in Chenghai, with some companies experiencing tariff rates as high as 145% [4][6] - Companies are adapting to the challenges posed by the trade war by exploring domestic markets and seeking support from platforms like JD.com to transition from export to domestic sales [8][9] Industry Overview - Chenghai's toy industry is characterized by low profit margins and intense competition, with many companies relying on OEM models and facing challenges from rising raw material costs and tariff adjustments [3][6] - The region's toys are known for their cost-effectiveness and quality, but the industry is under pressure to innovate and develop proprietary brands to avoid the risks associated with being solely reliant on foreign markets [10][11] Company Strategies - Companies like Xian Chaoqun's bubble toy firm have seen a significant portion of their revenue (34%) come from the US market, and they are willing to reduce profits to maintain customer relationships amid rising tariffs [2][5] - Other manufacturers, such as Wang Jinrong's craft factory, are facing inventory pressures due to halted shipments caused by trade tensions, leading to a need for temporary storage solutions [4][6] - The recent trade negotiations have provided some relief, but companies are aware that they must prepare for a more competitive landscape and potential future disruptions [7][12] Market Adaptation - The shift towards domestic sales is challenging for companies traditionally focused on exports, as they must navigate different market regulations and consumer expectations [8][9] - JD.com has initiated a support plan to help companies transition to domestic sales, indicating a collaborative effort to stabilize the industry amid external pressures [8][9] - The importance of innovation and brand development is emphasized as companies recognize the need to diversify their market presence and reduce dependency on a single market [10][11]
国泰海通|策略:地产销售动能回落,对美出口需求改善
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-23 13:05
Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales momentum is declining, while passenger car sales remain resilient; construction demand still needs improvement, and concerns over external demand are marginally easing, with an increase in China's export orders to the U.S. and a rebound in port cargo throughput and freight rates [1]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - Real estate sales continue to be weak, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities; first-tier cities saw a 12.4% increase, while second-tier cities experienced a 30.2% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 7.0% increase [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 30% year-on-year from May 6 to May 11, driven by national subsidy policies and promotional events [2]. - The demand for durable consumer goods, particularly automobiles, remains strong, while the film box office revenue has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][2]. Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - The construction demand remains weak, influenced by local rainfall, with resource prices showing divergence; rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increased by 1.6% and 2.5% week-on-week, respectively [3]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a rebound, with significant increases in operating rates for the automotive sector and a 5.6% week-on-week increase in the operating rate for petroleum asphalt facilities [3]. - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 2.8% week-on-week, respectively, supported by improved demand expectations due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to decline, with metro passenger volume in major cities showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year but a 0.3% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.3% week-on-week but increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 4.0% decrease week-on-week but a 17.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 81.8% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. - The SCFI/BDI indices increased by 10.0% and 6.9% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a recovery in port cargo throughput and container volume [4].
黄奇帆:解读当下中国经济形势
和讯· 2025-05-23 09:36
Group 1: Key Changes from "Made in China 2025" - The foundation of China's modernization industrial system is manufacturing, aiming to break through technological barriers and enhance competitiveness from "large but weak" to "large and relatively strong" [2][3] - By 2024, China's manufacturing share of global manufacturing is projected to rise from 20% in 2010 to 34%, with manufacturing value added being twice that of the US and four times that of Japan and Germany [3] - China's manufacturing supply chain is unique globally, covering all 41 major categories recognized by the UN, with 40% of these categories being the largest in global production [3] - The export structure has shifted significantly, with exports increasing from over $1.6 trillion in 2010 (70% labor-intensive products) to over $3.4 trillion in 2024 (90% technology-intensive products) [3] - The shipbuilding export market share increased from 20% in 2010 to 55% in 2024, while automotive production reached over 30 million units in 2024, with exports exceeding 6 million units [3] Group 2: Changes in Production and Trade - The production method has fundamentally changed, with processing trade dropping from over 50% to 20% by 2024, while general trade has risen to 60%-70% [5] - The trade volume between China and ASEAN countries grew from $600 billion in 2019 to nearly $1 trillion in 2024, a nearly 70% increase [6] - Foreign investment has deepened, with annual foreign direct investment increasing from $20 billion in the 1980s to over $120 billion from 2010 to 2020 [7] Group 3: New Quality Productivity Development - The development of new quality productivity focuses on three tracks: strategic emerging industries, upgrading traditional industries, and the growth of productive service industries [9][12] - Traditional industries are expected to undergo green, low-carbon, and digital upgrades, with a focus on reducing resource consumption and improving recycling rates [10][13] - The productive service industry is seen as a new engine for economic growth, with its GDP share currently at around 27%, indicating significant potential for future development [14] Group 4: Open Economy Strategy - In the context of potential future trade tensions, China has established four principles and five strategies to maintain its openness and competitiveness [15] - The principles include preparing for challenges, maintaining confidence, safeguarding core interests, and addressing weaknesses [15] - The strategies highlight China's vast market, complete industrial chain, and the importance of technological innovation as key assets in its open economy approach [15]
奇富科技(3660.HK):利润合预期 质量小幅波动
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-22 01:53
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 4.69 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, which is in line with previous expectations and within the company's guidance range [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit margin (take rate) for Q1 2025 was 5.2%, down from 5.9% in Q4 2024 [3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 7.1 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.2 billion yuan respectively, with slight upward adjustments of 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 0.2% for 2027 [3]. - The company’s guidance for Q2 2025 net profit is between 1.65 billion and 1.75 billion yuan, indicating confidence in achieving this target based on high-quality earnings [3]. Group 2: Loan Performance - The total loan volume for Q1 2025 was 88.9 billion yuan, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1% but a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [2]. - The loan balance reached 140.3 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2]. - The company maintained a cautious lending strategy, with expectations for moderate growth in loan volume for 2025 [2]. Group 3: Risk Indicators - The C-M2 ratio increased to 0.60% in Q1 2025 from 0.57% in Q4 2024, while the first-day overdue rate rose to 5.0% [2]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 666% in Q1 2025 from 617% in Q4 2024, indicating strong earnings quality [2]. - The cost of funds decreased by 30 basis points, attributed to the issuance of a significant amount of asset-backed securities (ABS) during the quarter [2].
丁一凡:面对毫无信誉的美国政府,我们不宜“得饶人处且饶人”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 23:50
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent US-China trade negotiations, which resulted in a temporary suspension of tariffs and a reduction of certain tariffs, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions between the two countries [1][17] - The negotiations progressed faster than expected, with the US agreeing to only a 10% base tariff instead of the previously proposed 145% [1][4] - The US's approach to the negotiations reflects a sense of urgency from the Trump administration, as they seek to find a way to ease trade tensions without incurring further economic damage [2][5] Group 2 - The current trade situation is characterized by a significant imbalance, with the US imposing additional tariffs on China under the pretext of issues like fentanyl, which complicates the negotiation landscape [4][5] - The upcoming 90-day suspension period is seen as a critical window for China to leverage the US's impending debt crisis as a bargaining chip in future negotiations [10][11] - China's strategy in the negotiations is to maintain a strong position, recognizing that the trade war has impacted the US more significantly than it has affected China [5][17] Group 3 - The historical context of the negotiations indicates that previous experiences with the Trump administration have equipped China with better strategies to handle potential future confrontations [13][14] - The reliance of the US on Chinese supply chains, particularly in areas like rare earth materials, gives China leverage in the negotiations [14] - The overall sentiment is that while the recent negotiations represent a temporary victory for China, there remains a high level of uncertainty regarding future interactions with the Trump administration [9][17]
江苏雷利:公司的组件可用于灵巧手中 实现高精度、高响应的末端操作
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-05-21 06:13
Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Leili is advancing its layout in the humanoid robot sector while maintaining strong growth in its core micro motor and component business, despite a slight decline in net profit in 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 294 million yuan, a decrease of 7.14%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 301 million yuan, an increase of 3.53% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 908 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.81%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, up 28.15% [1]. Product Development and Innovation - Jiangsu Leili has adopted an "Electric Motor+" strategy, expanding its product offerings to include precision gearboxes, sensors, and drive control systems, with several new products entering mass production in non-home appliance sectors in 2024 [1][2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive motion control system solution for humanoid robots, including linear joints, rotary joints, and dexterous hands, and is focusing on high-precision sensors and control components through external investments and collaborations [2][3]. Strategic Partnerships - Jiangsu Leili has established a partnership with Blue Technology, a leading quadruped robot company in China, to supply joint actuators for quadruped robots and enhance resource integration for product development and cost reduction [3]. Global Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its overseas production capacity and sales network to mitigate the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, with approximately 18% of its revenue coming from the U.S. market in 2024 [4]. - Jiangsu Leili has established R&D and manufacturing bases in North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Hong Kong, with a completed expansion of its Vietnam factory and a new factory in Mexico set to begin production in 2025 [4].
美国对中国起重机征收关税将重创美国港口
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 04:25
Group 1 - The Trump administration's proposal to impose high port fees on vessels owned, operated, and built by China, along with new tariffs on Chinese-manufactured cranes, has faced strong opposition from industry insiders [1][3] - A public hearing hosted by the U.S. Trade Representative's office discussed proposed tariffs of 100% on gantry cranes and 20% to 100% on cargo handling equipment, with a government panel restricting industry representatives from commenting [3][4] - The president of the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) expressed a desire to see gantry cranes built domestically, but emphasized the need for tax incentives from Congress to stimulate local production [4] Group 2 - The proposed 100% tariff is an addition to the existing 25% tariff set to take effect in 2024, potentially leading to a total of 270% tariffs on certain cranes, which could amount to $302.4 million for eight cranes ordered by the Port of Houston [5] - The president of the American Shipping Association highlighted that the proposed tariffs contradict ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, arguing that imposing tariffs on transportation tools while negotiating on goods and services is counterproductive [5]
铜及再生铜市场分析与展望
2025-05-20 15:24
Summary of Copper and Recycled Copper Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the copper and recycled copper market, highlighting supply and demand dynamics, production trends, and pricing factors for 2025 [1][3][40]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper mine supply growth is projected to be only 1%-2% in 2025, while domestic smelters are expected to add over 1 million tons of new production capacity, leading to a tight supply situation amid increasing demand [1][3]. - In the first four months of 2025, electrolytic copper production increased by approximately 400,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to the significant contribution of recycled copper anode plates [1][6]. - Domestic recycled copper supply increased by 87,000 tons year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, driven by rising copper prices and policies promoting the replacement of old equipment [1][11]. Production and Profitability - The average processing profit for copper processing and recycled copper industries remains high, encouraging companies to maximize production capacity, particularly for anode plates, which are expected to reach 1.85 to 1.90 million tons in 2024 [1][8][9]. - Current smelting operations are facing challenges, with zero single transactions generally resulting in losses of around 1,500 yuan, reflecting the tough market environment [1][7]. - The processing profit for recycled copper anode plates is notably high, with profits reaching 500 to 600 yuan per ton, driving increased production [5][8]. Regional Development - Key regions for the development of the recycled copper industry include Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, and Sichuan, benefiting from tax incentives and attracting significant investment [1][10]. Market Influences - The growth in electric grid investment is expected to boost demand for wires and cables, with a positive outlook for the real estate market in 2025, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2][17]. - The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions has led to fluctuations in the supply of recycled metals, with April 2025 seeing a decrease in supply due to tariffs [14][24]. Price Trends - Copper prices are expected to remain optimistic in 2025, with a support level likely above 70,000 yuan, despite potential volatility due to macroeconomic factors [25][41]. - The price sensitivity of downstream demand is significant, with order volumes increasing when prices drop to around 75,000 yuan [30][31]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the recycled copper supply is positive, with expectations of an increase in both imported and domestic supply, driven by policy changes and the aging of equipment [22][35]. - The anticipated stability in the waste copper market suggests that while the second quarter may not show significant growth, the overall demand for copper is expected to rise in the latter half of 2025 [24][40]. Additional Insights - The relationship between electrolytic copper production and recycled copper anode plates is crucial, as the latter helps to fill the production gap caused by slow growth in copper mines [28]. - The competition for waste copper between smelting and processing plants is influenced by market prices, affecting production decisions and supply flows [29]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future prospects of the copper and recycled copper markets, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities for stakeholders in the industry.
4月经济呈供给驱动特征,应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充
China Post Securities· 2025-05-20 10:51
证券研究报告:宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《外需波动影响信贷,加速改善可 期》 - 2025.05.16 宏观研究 4 月经济呈供给驱动特征,应超前关注科技产业对 投资的补充 投资要点 4 月经济运行呈现"增速边际放缓、韧性延续"的特征。受外部环 境不确定性上升影响,当月经济增速边际回落;在低基数效应下,按 照生产法测算,4 月经济增速拟合值为 5.5%,低于 3 月经济增速,基 本持平 1-2 月经济增速,经济增速保持一定韧性。从增长动能看,考 虑到外部环境复杂性加剧,可能强化市场主体谨慎预期,进而对消费、 投资和生产活动形成收缩压力,经济动能呈现显著的供给驱动特征, 供需缺口持续扩大。 当前宏观环境的主要矛盾是中美贸易摩擦,成为影响市场定价的 主要因素。尽管中美经贸会谈释放积极信号,但未来不确定性仍大。 4 月 12 日,中美经贸会谈释放积极信号,美国对我国加征关税税率从 ...