1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign trade shows resilience with steady growth in imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2025, and the growth rate accelerates quarter - by - quarter [19] - Gold prices reach new highs, and institutions predict further price increases in the future [5][6] - The U.S. economic growth forecast is raised, but employment growth is expected to remain weak [3] - The price of refined oil is reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - The price of live - hog futures hits a record low, and the pork market is in a "peak - season but low - price" situation [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 is 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI business activity index is 50.0% [1] - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 is 6.0%, showing an upward trend [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports are 8.3% and 7.4% respectively, showing a significant increase [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports are 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited establishes a new subsidiary in Dubai to expand commodity business and promote connectivity between China and the Middle East [3] - Economists raise the growth forecast of the U.S. economy for this year and next year, but expect employment growth to be weak [3] - On October 13, the Baltic Dry Index rises by 10.74% to 2144 points [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On October 14, the price of New York gold futures hits a record high of $4150 per ounce, and spot gold also reaches a new high [5] - The silver market experiences a rare short - squeeze, and the price of spot silver breaks through $52 per ounce [6] - The ILZSG predicts that the global lead and zinc supply and demand situation will change in 2025 and 2026 [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary resumes lithium resource development and utilization activities [9] - In September 2025, China's imports of soybeans, iron ore, and coal reach record or near - record highs [9] - Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum is announced [10] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Since October 13, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - China Petrochemical Beijing Petroleum Company promotes the transformation of traditional gas stations into comprehensive energy stations [11] - Saudi Aramco's CEO expects strong global oil demand in the next two years [12] - OPEC's September 2025 crude oil production data is released [12][13] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The live - hog futures price hits a record low, and the spot price of pork also shows a continuous downward trend [15] - The Chinese government arranges "Sanqiu" production work to ensure autumn grain harvest [16] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 13, the central bank conducts 1378 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1378 billion yuan [17] 3.3.2 Important News - China starts to collect special port fees on U.S. ships [18] - Trump hints at canceling new tariffs on China [18] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 27 to 30 [20] - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 is completed [20] - The 9 - month non - standard trust market shows a significant divergence in volume and price [20] - Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission launches a "real estate fund hotline" [21] - China's real estate - related special bonds increase significantly in the first three quarters of 2025 [21] - Vanke's board chairman changes [21] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rebound, and the prices of Vanke and Shenzhen Metro bonds generally fall [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closes down, and the prices of some convertible bonds fluctuate significantly [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closes down, and the US dollar index rises [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the issuance and net financing of local bonds will decline [30] - Guoxin Fixed - Income suggests not being overly aggressive in the convertible bond market due to increased uncertainties [31] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the short - term bond market has a high probability of winning but not to over - chase the rise [31] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The A - share market opens lower and rebounds, with some sectors rising and some falling [35] - The Hong Kong stock market closes down, and the net inflow of southbound funds is significant [35][36] - Foreign capital continues to be optimistic about Chinese core assets and increases their allocation [36] - Insurance funds are optimistic about the A - share market in Q4 and focus on two investment lines [36] - The issuance of new funds is hot, and equity funds are the main force [36]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, and will implement export controls on "all critical software" [1][2] - Following the announcement, global risk assets experienced a widespread decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points on October 10 [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to face potential index-level adjustments, but the extent is manageable, and the impact on the bond market is relatively limited [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts believe the recent escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions is primarily due to unreasonable sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry imposed by the U.S. in early October [2][4] - The A-share market showed significant volatility, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index dropping 4.55% and 5.61% respectively on October 10 [3][4] - Market sentiment is expected to remain focused on the upcoming APEC summit, with investors drawing on experiences from previous tariff announcements to gauge potential market reactions [3][4] Group 3 - The bond market's response to the current tariff escalation is expected to be weaker than in April, with analysts predicting that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.75% [6][7] - The current market environment is characterized by a learning effect from previous tariff experiences, leading to more rational investor behavior and shorter emotional impacts [6][7] - The upcoming changes in domestic policies, such as the fund redemption fee reform, are anticipated to be key variables influencing the bond market in the fourth quarter [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in international precious metal futures, particularly gold and silver, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions, rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risks that boost safe-haven demand [1][3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.24% to $4,130 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 7.47% to $50.775 per ounce, indicating a strong market reaction to current economic uncertainties [1] - The Financial Times discusses that the surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,000, reflects disappointment in the US dollar and concerns over global order uncertainty, positioning gold as a measure of confidence in future stability since the decoupling from the dollar in 1971 [1] Group 2 - The article from Japan's 47 News attributes the rise in gold prices to increased buying driven by Western investors through ETFs and derivatives, contrasting with the previously active Chinese retail investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] - Concerns regarding the US economy are identified as a primary motivation for investment in gold, with different age demographics having varying strategies; retirees may view gold as a hedge against downturns, while younger investors might pursue more aggressive investment strategies [3]

【文/观察者网 王一】在中国上周放出一连串"反制重锤"后，美国政府又企图用"关税大棒"讹诈，却只 换来华尔街的一片哀嚎。于是，当地时间10月13日，在美国总统特朗普、美国副总统万斯以及美国贸易 代表贾米森·格里尔之后，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在接受福克斯商业频道采访时也放软了语调，称 刚过去的周末中美双方进行了"实质性沟通"，100%关税不一定要发生。 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯指出，美方态度的转变显示出中国手中有牌打、敢打牌，也能让美 国切身感受到痛楚，"我们现在看清了特朗普，也完全摸透了他的底牌"。中国人民大学国际关系学院教 授王义桅也认为，最近的中美贸易摩擦本质上是"以斗促和"的过程，"中国的回应更像是一种反制，警 告美国不要再制造麻烦，因为华盛顿从中得不到任何好处"。 贝森特预计，双方将举行更多会谈，并且特朗普已表示关税在11月1日前将不会生效。 贝森特还称，本周美国和中国将进行工作级别会谈，"100%的关税不一定要发生，尽管上周宣布了这一 消息，但双方关系仍保持良好。沟通渠道已重新开放，所以我们将拭目以待"。 同时，贝森特还试图继续给中国泼脏水，声称"中国的举动具有挑衅性"，他还嘴硬地表示， ...

Group 1: Trade Relations and Policies - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. announcement of a 100% tariff increase, labeling it as a typical "double standard" and emphasizing that China does not wish to engage in a trade war but is not afraid to do so if necessary [2] - Recent measures by China to tighten export controls on rare earths are seen as a retaliatory action against the U.S., indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [2][3] - The uncertainty in U.S.-China trade policies is affecting global multinational companies, leading to diminished business confidence [3] Group 2: Trade Data and Economic Indicators - In September, China's exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching a six-month high, while imports increased by 7.4%, the highest in 17 months, indicating resilience in trade performance [4] - The total value of China's goods trade in the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with exports maintaining growth for eight consecutive quarters [4] - Despite the positive trade data, challenges remain, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on re-exported goods and a shift towards processing trade, which may continue to pressure China's export outlook [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have seen an increase in real estate transaction volumes, with September data showing significant growth in both new and second-hand housing sales [6] - The overall real estate market remains under pressure, with limited recovery in supply-demand dynamics, indicating a buyer's market [7] Group 4: Corporate Developments - The Dutch government has imposed restrictions on China's Wingtech Technology's subsidiary, Anshi Semiconductor, leading to asset freezes and management changes, highlighting the political risks faced by Chinese companies abroad [8] - Vanke's chairman, Xin Jie, resigned for personal reasons, raising concerns about the company's stability amid liquidity challenges [9][10] Group 5: Aviation and Tourism Industry - Post-holiday, air ticket prices have significantly dropped, with some routes seeing reductions of up to 80%, reflecting a decrease in travel demand following the peak holiday season [13][14] - The entire tourism industry is facing profitability challenges, with airlines struggling to maintain margins as ticket prices align with or fall below high-speed rail costs [14] Group 6: Market Performance - On October 13, the stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.19%, amid ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [15][16] - The market's response to trade policy changes indicates a reduction in panic compared to previous instances, although overall trading volume has decreased, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term bond market is primarily focused on two key aspects: the sustainability of the recovery sentiment since late September and the impact of escalating China-U.S. trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Recovery - Since September 25, the bond market has experienced a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield declining by 9 basis points from its peak over the past 8 trading days [1] - The recovery has been substantial, indicating a significant adjustment in market sentiment [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions - The intensification of China-U.S. trade tensions is viewed as a tactical move rather than a long-term trend, with the ongoing decoupling between the two economies being a broader concern [1] - The bond market's reaction to these tensions has been limited, as it has adapted to the ongoing trade conflict since its escalation in April [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - While the bond market shows a higher probability of favorable outcomes in the short term, caution is advised against excessive chasing of gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the market was triggered by the U.S. President's threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which was later softened, leading to a significant market recovery [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - Following the President's initial threat, the market experienced a sharp decline, but rebounded strongly with the Dow gaining 588 points, S&P climbing 1.56%, and NASDAQ jumping 2.21% after the President reassured that talks with China were back on [2]. Trade Dynamics - China's exports to countries other than the U.S. increased by nearly 15%, while exports to the U.S. fell by 27%. Despite this decline, China's total exports rose by 8% in September, indicating a potential adaptation to reduced U.S. trade [4][5]. Political Rhetoric - The President's softened rhetoric over the weekend suggested a more optimistic outlook on U.S.-China relations, contrasting sharply with the earlier threats of tariffs [5][6].

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower but rebounded throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.50, down 0.19% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47, down 0.93%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4593.98, down 0.50% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3078.76, down 1.11%, but the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.40% to 1473.02 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Nonferrous Metals (up 3.35%), Environmental Protection (up 1.65%), and Steel (up 1.49%) [3] - The underperforming sectors were Automotive (down 2.33%), Household Appliances (down 1.74%), and Beauty Care (down 1.58%) [3] - Concept sectors that performed well included Rare Earth Permanent Magnet (up 6.92%) and Military Restructuring Concept (up 3.51%) [3] Future Outlook - The market showed resilience despite initial declines due to U.S. tariff threats, with a notable recovery in the afternoon [4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.35 trillion, a decrease of 160.9 billion from the previous trading day [6] - The report suggests that the market's risk appetite may remain resilient due to accumulated experience and policy support, with potential sector rotation favoring anti-tariff and stable assets like rare earths and military [6] Economic Indicators - China's goods trade for the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with exports at 19.95 trillion yuan (up 7.1%) and imports at 13.66 trillion yuan (down 0.2%) [5] - In September, trade volume was 4.04 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [5]

Market Overview - On October 13, A-shares opened significantly lower due to renewed US-China trade tensions but rebounded throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.19% at 3889.5 points and the Shenzhen Component down 0.93% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was approximately 2.37 trillion yuan [1] - The Hang Seng Index also opened lower but stabilized, closing down 1.52% [1] Sector Performance - Despite the overall market decline, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, military, and banking saw gains, with the non-ferrous sector rising over 3% [2] - More than 90 stocks experienced a limit-up or increased by over 10%, while six non-ST stocks hit the limit-down [2] - Notable gainers included China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth, both hitting the limit-up [2] Trade Tensions and Government Response - On October 10, President Trump announced the re-imposition of tariffs on China, leading to significant sell-offs in US markets, with the Dow down 1.9% and the Nasdaq down 3.56% [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that recent export control measures on rare earths were a normal action to improve its export control system, emphasizing that high tariffs are not a proper way to engage with China [3] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the impact of the current tariff situation will be less severe than in April, with a recommendation to focus on defensive sectors such as utilities and banking in the short term [4] - There is an emphasis on monitoring strategic advancements in frontier technology sectors, including nuclear fusion, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor manufacturing for mid-term investment opportunities [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a "wide monetary + wide fiscal" policy, with a suggestion to focus on technology trends and domestic substitution in sectors like AI computing chips and semiconductor equipment [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The global ETF gold holdings have significantly increased, with a net inflow of 146 tons year-to-date, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. The North American market contributed the majority of this increase, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic risks, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The oil market is under pressure due to global risk asset sell-offs, despite OPEC's October meeting aligning with expectations for a slight reduction in production increases. Brent crude oil is expected to find support at around $60 per barrel [1][4] - The copper market is experiencing supply-side risks, particularly due to a Freeport incident leading to a supply-demand imbalance. Long-term fundamentals remain positive, with expectations of a copper shortage from 2025 to 2026 [1][6] Key Points on Specific Markets Gold Market - The rise in gold prices since September is primarily driven by safe-haven demand rather than expectations of interest rate cuts. The increase in ETF holdings in non-U.S. regions, especially Asia, is noteworthy [1][5] Oil Market - OPEC's recent actions included accelerating production cuts from April to September, with Saudi Arabia increasing production by approximately 1 million barrels. However, the market is expected to face downward pressure due to seasonal declines in downstream consumption and rising U.S. inventories [1][3][4] Pork Market - The pork market has seen a significant decline in prices, with a 15% drop in 2025 attributed to increased supply during peak seasons without a corresponding rise in demand. Future developments in the pork cycle will depend on supply-demand balance, policy adjustments, and breeding costs [1][7][8] - For October to November, pork prices are expected to continue declining, with planned slaughter volumes increasing by 5.5% and high slaughter weights maintained [1][9] - The medium-term outlook suggests that pork prices will not rebound significantly from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 due to ongoing supply pressures from increasing piglet numbers and policy measures affecting supply dynamics [1][10] - Long-term projections for H2 2026 indicate a target of 39 million breeding sows, with current losses in breeding profits accelerating the culling process. However, any significant capacity reduction in the near term may provide some price rebound opportunities [1][11] Additional Insights - The copper market is expected to remain in a state of shortage from 2025 to 2026, with favorable long-term fundamentals supporting price increases despite short-term market risk preferences [1][6] - The current futures market shows the 11 contract at a balanced state, indicating some supply pressure has been alleviated, while potential opportunities exist in the 09 contract due to deep losses in the 11 contract [1][12]