人民财讯7月29日电，国内商品期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，截至发稿，螺纹钢涨1.48%，铁矿石涨0.69%， 焦煤涨超3%，玻璃涨0.42%，原油涨0.66%，纯碱涨1%；棉花跌近1%。 转自：证券时报 ...

Group 1 - The prices of soda ash and apples have dropped over 3% [1] - The prices of coking coal, No. 20 rubber, and BR rubber have decreased by more than 2% [1] - The prices of polysilicon and silicon iron have increased by over 3% [1] Group 2 - The prices of manganese silicon, LU fuel oil, caustic soda, industrial silicon, and hot-rolled steel have risen by more than 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macro trading sentiment has cooled down, leading to profit-taking and a significant decline in commodity futures, with several key commodities hitting their daily limit down [1]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Soda ash main contract 2509 hit the limit down, closing at 1316 CNY/ton, with a decline of 8.04% and an increase in open interest by over 46,600 contracts compared to the previous day [2]. - Glass main contract 2509 also hit the limit down, closing at 1223 CNY/ton, down by 9%, with a decrease in open interest of over 78,000 contracts and a net outflow of 955 million CNY [2]. - Lithium carbonate main contract 2509 closed at 73,120 CNY/ton, down by 7.98%, with a reduction in open interest of over 112,000 contracts and a net outflow of 2.374 billion CNY [2]. - Industrial silicon main contract 2509 closed at 8,915 CNY/ton, down by 8%, with a decrease in open interest of over 44,000 contracts and a net outflow of 656 million CNY [2]. - Coking coal main contract 2509 hit the limit down, closing at 1,100.5 CNY/ton, down by 11%, with a reduction in open interest of over 126,000 contracts and a net outflow of 2.666 billion CNY [3]. - Coking coal had previously experienced four consecutive trading days of limit up before this decline [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - The analysis from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term capital situation is overly concentrated, leading to increased volatility in coking coal prices. The main focus for future trading will be on the support level around 950-960 CNY/ton [3]. - There is anticipation of a potential second upward trend in coking coal prices if upcoming domestic policy announcements exceed expectations; otherwise, prices are likely to revert to fundamental industry logic [3].

商品期货夜盘多品种大幅走低，氧化铝跌4.5%，焦煤、焦炭一度跌4%，玻璃跌3.7%，纯碱跌超3%。 ...

软商品日报 2025/07/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of "anti-involution" policies in China is rising, leading to increased market activity and a surge in commodity futures, with several key contracts hitting their daily price limits [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - Coking coal main contract 2509 hit the daily limit, closing at 1259.0 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7.98% and an increase in open interest of over 55,000 contracts, attracting 1.419 billion CNY in inflows. The contract has seen a cumulative increase of over 42% this week [2] - Lithium carbonate main contract 2509 also hit the daily limit, closing at 80,520.0 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7.99% and an increase in open interest of over 54,000 contracts, with 1.211 billion CNY in inflows [2] - Glass main contract 2509 reached the daily limit, closing at 1,362.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.01% and nearly 60,000 contracts added in open interest, resulting in 539 million CNY in inflows [2] - Manganese silicon main contract 2509 hit the daily limit, closing at 6,414.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.02% and over 61,000 contracts added in open interest, attracting 491 million CNY in inflows [2] - Silicon iron main contract 2509 also reached the daily limit, closing at 6,166.00 CNY/ton, with an increase of 8.02% and over 43,000 contracts added in open interest, resulting in 269 million CNY in inflows [2] Group 2: Market Analysis and Expectations - Analysts from Zhonghui Futures noted that a recent meeting among leading manganese enterprises resulted in a preliminary consensus to reduce energy consumption and emissions by 40%. This unexpected news led to the price surges in silicon iron and manganese silicon [3] - The rapid increase in open interest indicates strong market participation, and if no other policy interventions occur, manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to open higher next week, although short-term participants should be cautious of potential pullbacks [3]

近期，多晶硅、焦煤、玻璃等工业品期货价格大幅上涨，吸引了市场各方高度关注。7月7日至22日，南 华商品指数累计上涨4.9%。 笔者认为，本轮商品期货大涨的主要原因有四点： 二是产业的结构性特点。多晶硅是本轮商品上涨行情中的最强品种，其产业结构特点助推了价格上涨。 多晶硅行业是典型的寡头垄断行业，前五大企业份额占全市场的70%左右，头部企业拥有强大的价格主 导能力。当市场出现利多信号时，头部企业可通过减产、提价等方式影响市场价格，短期内极易引发期 货价格大幅波动。然而，价格持续非理性大涨会严重伤害下游产业链。下游企业无法顺利转嫁成本，利 润空间被大幅挤压甚至亏损，长此以往会打击其生产积极性，可能减少生产规模，反过来影响上游多晶 硅等产品需求。这不仅违背政策初衷，还会破坏产业链生态平衡，可能引发系统性风险。 更重要的是，上一轮商品牛市有地产、投资等领域需求的强劲支持，当时房地产蓬勃发展和大规模基础 设施建设极大地拉动了钢铁、煤炭、水泥等工业品的需求，为价格上涨提供了坚实基础。本轮"反内 卷"政策更多是希望引导供需适配。从政策角度看，只有国内需求合理发展，带动经济稳步增长，才可 能是本轮牛市的根本驱动因素。 另一方 ...

Group 1 - The opening of commodity futures saw coking coal's main contract rise over 4% [1] - Shanghai tin and methanol both increased by more than 1% [1] - Multiple commodities including polysilicon, lithium carbonate, soybean meal, soda ash, soybean oil, live pigs, alumina, industrial silicon, rapeseed meal, and pulp all experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday views being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views being oscillating [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.30% to 15075 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: After the previous bearish expectations were gradually digested, the Shanghai rubber futures price entered an oscillating recovery trend. The expected reduction in domestic natural rubber production areas due to the typhoon boosted the rubber price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.46% to 12080 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested bearish factors, combined with the stabilization and rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the upward trend. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the release of domestic policies and their impact on the direction of various commodity futures [1] - A senior futures researcher, Leo, will explain practical cases of a monitoring tool, focusing on real-time order flow and capital bomb features [1] - The session aims to help participants understand market sentiment changes and analyze the future trends of bulk commodities [1]